Game #22: Toronto Raptors 126 - Phoenix Suns 113

[DanH]

OKC only 10-12 with Westbrook, Melo and Paul George. Even Patrick Patterson couldn't save them ....

Yeah, but they are 13-9 by pythagorean wins and 8th in the league in SRS. They will bounce back, they've just lost some bad games so far. Probably be a mid-seed in the West by the time it all shakes out.

[3inthekeon]

OKC only 10-12 with Westbrook, Melo and Paul George. Even Patrick Patterson couldn't save them ....

Patterson's been awful. He hasn't been good since he injured his knee last year in Phoenix. Used to be the biggest PPat fan on the board, but Masai was smart re-signing him a few years ago and smart letting him walk this past offseason.

As for the big 3, it seems odd OKC has been a dominant defensive team, neck and neck with the #2 Spurs, but 23rd on offence.

[DanH]

Third consecutive non-game-day, so... fun with numbers:

So we've hit that 1/4 season mark, and so here is how the Raptors are tracking so far using my performance tracker. You may recall I ran an early version of it using the projection numbers from the off-season. Now I'll present results using both those projection numbers and the actual results thus far for strength of schedule. I've adjusted the pre-season projection numbers so the league wide average ORTG is the same as the actual league wide average ORTG so far this year (104.9).

So, using the adjusted projections as a basis:

Average offensive performance: +6.1 points per 100 possessions (PPC)
Average defensive performance: +1.9 PPC
Adjusted ORTG (rank): 111.0 PPC (3rd)
Adjusted DRTG (rank): 103.0 PPC (9th)
Pythagorean projected win total: 60.5-21.5
Model record to date: 13.4-7.6 (Actual 14-7)
Model projected win total: 53.7-28.3

Using the actual results for teams:

Average offensive performance: +6.9 points per 100 possessions (PPC)
Average defensive performance: +1.0 PPC
Adjusted ORTG (rank): 111.8 PPC (3rd)
Adjusted DRTG (rank): 103.9 PPC (11th)
Pythagorean projected win total: 60.4-21.6
Model record to date: 13.0-8.0 (Actual 14-7)
Model projected win total: 50.4-31.6

The model is conservative (skews to .500), while pythagorean wins tend to overpredict (for good teams, underpredict for bad).

Using the average of the two, leaves the current projection at 57 wins based on pre-season projections, and 55 wins based on team performances thus far.

In any case, a floor projection of 50 wins from 4 variable approaches seems like a good thing.

Just some quick context for how the start of the season has gone. An awesome offensive performance, which we've gotten used to and spoiled by as Raptor fans (playoffs notwithstanding), and a borderline top 10 defence, again something we've gotten used to in spite of our, shall we say, humble beginnings in the Bargs era, the Triano era, and back and back and back...

[Demographic Shift]

Patterson's been awful. He hasn't been good since he injured his knee last year in Phoenix. Used to be the biggest PPat fan on the board, but Masai was smart re-signing him a few years ago and smart letting him walk this past offseason.

As for the big 3, it seems odd OKC has been a dominant defensive team, neck and neck with the #2 Spurs, but 23rd on offence.

Sad to see PPat fall off the side of a cliff. He was such a big part of the Raps renaissance after he came in with the Gay trade.Raps got 3 great years from him.

He hurt his knee and then his confidence evaporated on offence. When he didn’t take the EOY exit interview thought it was something here that caused him to perform below his standards..but by all accounts the malaise continues in OKC.

Pro sports is one tough gig. Hope PPat turns it around.

[Deems]

This feels like a trap game.

[DanH]

This feels like a trap game.

Every game from here to the new year is essentially a trap game.

[Deems]

Every game from here to the new year is essentially a trap game.

I'd disagree here, could rack up some losses against reasonable opponents. The back to back in CHA/PHI could be a tough one, plus OKC on the back end of another back to back. I mean I wouldn't be surprised if we won out the month but knowing our concentration is that of a 16 year old I'll be weary til the new year comes.

[Jclaw]

still....one...more.....day.......

I'll hold judgement until after the game but the Suns kept themselves in the Boston game making it a 3 point game with less than a minute to go. Not sure if that says something about the Suns or the Celts. It does say something about that 3 point circus the Suns gave up in that clip.

[Deems]

still....one...more.....day.......

I'll hold judgement until after the game but the Suns kept themselves in the Boston game making it a 3 point game with less than a minute to go. Not sure if that says something about the Suns or the Celts. It does say something about that 3 point circus the Suns gave up in that clip.

Main thing with playing teams like the Suns is to crush them early so they have 0 confidence. If they get a taste that they could possibly win the game early, they'll come out to play. If we're up by 10 by the end of the 1st it'll be over.

[Jclaw]

Main thing with playing teams like the Suns is to crush them early so they have 0 confidence. If they get a taste that they could possibly win the game early, they'll come out to play. If we're up by 10 by the end of the 1st it'll be over.

yeah...and the Suns will even be on a back to back from Philly

[3inthekeon]

yeah...and the Suns will even be on a back to back from Philly

Yeah, we're the 4th night of the Suns 3 games in 4 nights. No fuckin' excuses boys.

[JimiCliff]

Poor Jay Triano, dude must have broken twenty clipboards during this play alone. Also makes me glad that I was wrong about Chriss if this is the kind of effort he gives. Pathetic.

The lack of boxing out at the seven second mark is remarkable.

[MixxAOR]

We're not exactly rebounding powerhouse. So Suns shouldn't be worried. One thing that upsets me this year is the fact that Raptors don't strike fear into opponents. Raptors will beat you but they won't embarrass you

[SkywalkerAC]

Wow this is a lot of rest. Glad we can hopefully shake off thre rust versus one of the league’s worst.

[Demographic Shift]

We're not exactly rebounding powerhouse. So Suns shouldn't be worried. One thing that upsets me this year is the fact that Raptors don't strike fear into opponents. Raptors will beat you but they won't embarrass you

Agree that team defensive rebounding has been an issue so far..it needs to be better than it is right now. Giving up second chance points to the likes of Indy and NY is one thing and it hurts....but giving them up to the Spurs, Cavs is death. They really limited Houston on 2nd chance points and they won that going away.

For whatever reason they are OK on the other end ...Poeltl and Siakam as well as Jonas really get after it on the offensive glass. Go figure.