Everything 2018 Off Season

[inthepaint]

ugh..that website has the kind of 1998 HTML that makes you feel you're gonna get a virus the first thing you click on it

[octothorp]

Raps not listed.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/nba/story.cfm/story/1928479

Worth noting that this article came out on July 12th, same day that other site listed Raptors as even money (and listed Sixers at +800), and it looks like Betdsi has already shifted their line on the Sixers from the -250 they were at when this article came out, back to the +200 they were at in early July.

All of which is why I just don't take oddsmakers too seriously on this offseason stuff.

[S.R.]

There are always going to be outliers like Curry and Kawhi but the vast majority of franchise players come from the top of the draft. There have been a ton of studies on it. And tanking increases your odds of picking at one of those spots. Looking at one draft doesn't tell us anything.... You have to look at 30 years of data.

So crazy that one year a #1 can get you Lebron James and another year a #1 can get you Andrea Bargnani.

Oh well.

[golden]

There are always going to be outliers like Curry and Kawhi but the vast majority of franchise players come from the top of the draft. There have been a ton of studies on it. And tanking increases your odds of picking at one of those spots. Looking at one draft doesn't tell us anything.... You have to look at 30 years of data.

30 years doesn't matter. Things have been changing recently, for whatever reasons. Even last year you had a franchise guy like Donovan Mitchell picked 13th overall. Markkanen was 7th. If the goal of tanking is just to get a 'great player', then we've got 2 four-time all-stars already.

But, I thought everybody around here wants to tank to get a franchise altering guy. Drafting top 5 hasn't been giving teams better odds at getting that potential superstar than lower picks in the last 5-10 years. I don't know why that is, but it's a new trend.

[DogeLover1234]

So crazy that one year a #1 can get you Lebron James and another year a #1 can get you Andrea Bargnani.

Oh well.

Thats why the lesson for rebuilding isn't tanking works or tanking doesnt work. It can, but the teams who have actually successfully rebuild do more than try to lose games, kinda why I think any rebuilding team should focus on acquiring multiple first round picks over being the worst possible, not to say that cant work.

[inthepaint]

So crazy that one year a #1 can get you Lebron James and another year a #1 can get you Andrea Bargnani.

Oh well.

Yeah...either that or Anthony Davis and Anthony Bennett as #1 picks on back-to-back years lol

Thought this article was interesting, kinda dated (2014) and probably quoted here already, but there hasn't been a whole lot of #1-5 picks bringing rings for the teams that drafted them. It implies that the 6-15 zone has been just as successful, if not more..

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-future-titles

Jury still out from 2014 till now. Though so far, no rings for the 50 players drafted in the top ten since then

[golden]

Yeah...either that or Anthony Davis and Anthony Bennett as #1 picks on back-to-back years lol

Thought this article was interesting, kinda dated (2014) and probably quoted here already, but there hasn't been a whole lot of #1-5 picks bringing rings for the teams that drafted them. It implies that the 6-15 zone has been just as successful, if not more..

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-future-titles

Jury still out from 2014 till now. Though so far, no rings for the 50 players drafted in the top ten since then

I think the money has attracted a larger pool of talent from around the world combined with better training also creating more late bloomers. Michael Jordan and Magic Johnson never had to compete against the sheer number of skilled players that exist today. Just look at Canada alone, not to mention Europe and Africa. 20-30 years ago you could pretty much bank on a guy who dominated in American college, being an NBA all-star, but today it's not a lock.

[Abbas]

Andrew Wiggins just recently became the 6th youngest Player to score 6,000 points - behind only LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant and Tracy McGrady. I think he's going to be fine. He's got boat loads of talent and no serious injury concerns. Hasn't even hit his prime.

Regardless, wiggins will never be good as a mixture of Lebron and Tmac, more like a better Rud Gay in his prime. which is also VERY good, just not what I excepted considering the hype

[Scraptor]

Yeah...either that or Anthony Davis and Anthony Bennett as #1 picks on back-to-back years lol

Thought this article was interesting, kinda dated (2014) and probably quoted here already, but there hasn't been a whole lot of #1-5 picks bringing rings for the teams that drafted them. It implies that the 6-15 zone has been just as successful, if not more..

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-future-titles

Jury still out from 2014 till now. Though so far, no rings for the 50 players drafted in the top ten since then

Again, this is faulty logic. Picking data points selectively doesn't tell us anything. The question isn't whether high draft picks guarantee you a championship, the question is whether you can win a championship without them. I've highlighted some of the mvp guys drafted by their team.

1980s Lakers had
Magic - 1st overall drafted
Kareem - 1st overall
Worthy - 1st overall
Thompson - 1st overall

Celtics
Bird 6th (because he planned on staying in school for his senior year after being picked) -drafted
Mchale 3rd
Parish 8th
And Walton as 6th man for one year, 1st

76ers
Moses ABA
Dr J 12th

90s Pistons
Isiah 2nd -drafted
Dumars 18th
Aguirre 1st
Johnson 7th

Bulls
Jordan 3rd -drafted
Pippen 5th
Grant 10th
Cartwright 3rd

Rockets
Olajuwon 1st -drafted
Drexler 14th
Smith 6th

Lakers
Shaq 1st
Bryant 13th (agent maneuvering) -drafted

Spurs
Duncan 1st -drafted
Robinson 1st -drafted
Later
Parker 28th, Ginobili, Leonard 15th

04 Pistons
Billups 3rd
Sheed 4th
Rip 7th

Heat
Wade 3rd -drafted
Shaq 1st
Walker 6th
Williams 7th

Mavs
Dirk 9th drafted
Kidd 2nd
Chandler 2nd

Heat
Lebron 1st
Wade 3rd -drafted
Bosh 4th

Cavs
LeBron 1st drafted
Kyrie 1st drafted
Love 5th

Warriors
Curry 7th -drafted
Thompson 11th
Durant 2nd

So basically every team that has won a championship in the last forty years has assembled a collection of top flight lottery talent. The vast majority have had a top lotto pick they drafted leading them forward.

No one since 2014 has brought home a championship because it's not an instantaneous process.... Jordan didn't win a ring till his seventh season.

I am guessing if we look back in twenty years the following guys will appear on a list like the above

Embiid 3rd
Simmons 1st
Fultz 1st

Tatum 3rd
Irving 1st

Porzingis 4th

And maybe a few others.

The most important thing for us is that the guys who weren't drafted by their teams went to attractive destinations:
LA - Shaq, Kareem
Miami - LeBron
GS - Durant

The one exception being Detroit.

We have 23 years of proof with the Raptors... Our two biggest free agency signings were Hedo Turkoglu and DeMarre Carroll. Our greatest players were mostly acquired in the lotto: Vince, TMac, Bosh, DeMar. The one exception being Kyle.

Even if if you want to get players in the 6-15 range, it's very rare to get those picks as a perennial top 3 seed, and the odds of drafting an elite talent drop precipitously (Jakob Poeltl is solid but not elite).

So it's a nice fantasy that we can build from the middle but it's fairly likely that we are going to have a seven year stretch of evidence that this strategy is not robust enough for playoff success.

[inthepaint]

Again, this is faulty logic. Picking data points selectively doesn't tell us anything. The question isn't whether high draft picks guarantee you a championship, the question is whether you can win a championship without them. I've highlighted some of the mvp guys drafted by their team.

1980s Lakers had
Magic - 1st overall drafted
Kareem - 1st overall
Worthy - 1st overall
Thompson - 1st overall

Celtics
Bird 6th (because he planned on staying in school for his senior year after being picked) -drafted
Mchale 3rd
Parish 8th
And Walton as 6th man for one year, 1st

76ers
Moses ABA
Dr J 12th

90s Pistons
Isiah 2nd -drafted
Dumars 18th
Aguirre 1st
Johnson 7th

Bulls
Jordan 3rd -drafted
Pippen 5th
Grant 10th
Cartwright 3rd

Rockets
Olajuwon 1st -drafted
Drexler 14th
Smith 6th

Lakers
Shaq 1st
Bryant 13th (agent maneuvering) -drafted

Spurs
Duncan 1st -drafted
Robinson 1st -drafted
Later
Parker 28th, Ginobili, Leonard 15th

04 Pistons
Billups 3rd
Sheed 4th
Rip 7th

Heat
Wade 3rd -drafted
Shaq 1st
Walker 6th
Williams 7th

Mavs
Dirk 9th drafted
Kidd 2nd
Chandler 2nd

Heat
Lebron 1st
Wade 3rd -drafted
Bosh 4th

Cavs
LeBron 1st drafted
Kyrie 1st drafted
Love 5th

Warriors
Curry 7th -drafted
Thompson 11th
Durant 2nd

So basically every team that has won a championship in the last forty years has assembled a collection of top flight lottery talent. The vast majority have had a top lotto pick they drafted leading them forward.

No one since 2014 has brought home a championship because it's not an instantaneous process.... Jordan didn't win a ring till his seventh season.

I am guessing if we look back in twenty years the following guys will appear on a list like the above

Embiid 3rd
Simmons 1st
Fultz 1st

Tatum 3rd
Irving 1st

Porzingis 4th

And maybe a few others.

The most important thing for us is that the guys who weren't drafted by their teams went to attractive destinations:
LA - Shaq, Kareem
Miami - LeBron
GS - Durant

The one exception being Detroit.

We have 23 years of proof with the Raptors... Our two biggest free agency signings were Hedo Turkoglu and DeMarre Carroll. Our greatest players were mostly acquired in the lotto: Vince, TMac, Bosh, DeMar. The one exception being Kyle.

Even if if you want to get players in the 6-15 range, it's very rare to get those picks as a perennial top 3 seed, and the odds of drafting an elite talent drop precipitously (Jakob Poeltl is solid but not elite).

So it's a nice fantasy that we can build from the middle but it's fairly likely that we are going to have a seven year stretch of evidence that this strategy is not robust enough for playoff success.

Woah woah woah - the article is not disputing the fact that the top of the draft has more talent. That's a given. It merely states that since 1985, no #1 - 5 players other than Duncan, Robinson & D.Wade (and Kyrie since the article was written) took the team that drafted them to a championship. That's it. It didn't say that teams that got a ring didn't have former high draft picks. There's a difference.

I also don't think the article is cherry picking data points, it's covering the most recent 33 years of NBA history, specifically picking 1985 to start because it was a watershed year when the lottery was implemented (precisely to act as counter-incentive to tanking), which is the system we currently have.

I'm also not getting the statement in bold on the quote - I might be legit missing something here (maybe we have different definitions of "top lotto pick"?): I'm considering top 3, so that will yield just the Spurs (with Duncan and Robinson) and the Cavs (with Kyrie) in the past 33 years. If we go top 5 that will just add the Heat (with Wade). That's it. Also, the Cavs ring (and most of the Heat rings) also had Lebron James as the main player, brought in via trade/FA and not through the draft.

So that's largely just the Spurs in the past 33 years with home grown top draftees carrying them to a title (and the 2006 Heat with Wade).

What I get from this article is that it's quite rare to go out of your way to lose on purpose and tank, then nail the right player with your pick, then carefully develop this player and transition them from college to the NBA, then retain said player(s) all the way to a championship (i.e. withstanding the pressures of free angency, trade offers, player fit/chemistry, player desires to play elsewhere etc..).

Championships teams actually do have a lot of top draftees, just not usually drafted by them (often acquired via trade/FA later).

[DogeLover1234]

Woah woah woah - the article is not disputing the fact that the top of the draft has more talent. That's a given. It merely states that since 1985, no #1 - 5 players other than Duncan, Robinson & D.Wade (and Kyrie since the article was written) took the team that drafted them to a championship. That's it. It didn't say that teams that got a ring didn't have former high draft picks. There's a difference.

I also don't think the article is cherry picking data points, it's covering the most recent 33 years of NBA history, specifically picking 1985 to start because it was a watershed year when the lottery was implemented (precisely to act as counter-incentive to tanking), which is the system we currently have.

I'm also not getting the statement in bold on the quote - I might be legit missing something here (maybe we have different definitions of "top lotto pick"?): I'm considering top 3, so that will yield just the Spurs (with Duncan and Robinson) and the Cavs (with Kyrie) in the past 33 years. If we go top 5 that will just add the Heat (with Wade). That's it. Also, the Cavs ring (and most of the Heat rings) also had Lebron James as the main player, brought in via trade/FA and not through the draft.

So that's largely just the Spurs in the past 33 years with home grown top draftees carrying them to a title (and the 2006 Heat with Wade).

What I get from this article is that it's quite rare to go out of your way to lose on purpose and tank, then nail the right player with your pick, then carefully develop this player and transition them from college to the NBA, then retain said player(s) all the way to a championship (i.e. withstanding the pressures of free angency, trade offers, player fit/chemistry, player desires to play elsewhere etc..).

Championships teams actually do have a lot of top draftees, just not usually drafted by them (often acquired via trade/FA later).

I mean if history has shown us one thing, its that the teams that are in the top of the lottery are typically terribly managed, makes any anti-tanking argument hard to accept tbh.

[Puffer]

I mean if history has shown us one thing, its that the teams that are in the top of the lottery are typically terribly managed, makes any anti-tanking argument hard to accept tbh.

The flip side is that teams that are consistently in the bottom of the lottery are very well managed and don't need to tank to get good results. Winning the championship has a large dose of luck associated with it. However if you draft as well as possible, make excellent trades, manage your cap finances, put together a great development program and hire excellent staff, you have a shot at attracting cream of the crop free agents at the right time to make a run at it. Miami did it when they got the gang of three together. This iteration of the Raptors isn't realistically likely to, but they are busy putting things in place. In three years they will have financial flexibility and a great crop of talented players hitting their prime to act as support players or trade pieces.

[Demographic Shift]

I mean if history has shown us one thing, its that the teams that are in the top of the lottery are typically terribly managed, makes any anti-tanking argument hard to accept tbh.

And throw in that their personnel evaluators are bottom quartile as well....

The sheer number of high picks going the way of the Sacto and Phoenix and Orlando over the past decade and that they’re still picking high defies probabilities. Even with Ayton Phoenix will be back in the top 8...The same with the Kings and the Magic.

We take big shots at the Knicks management team.....but they made a good pick with the Zinger...dumped Carmelo...picked ntillanka who the jury is out on but still has a chance to be a legit starter and this year they picked Knox who has shown well in Summer League. All in 3 years. It’s a low bar to be sure...but....the Suns, Magic and Kings still limbo under that.

[GOLDBLUM]

Are we tanking about tanking again?
Is Kawhi a Raptor yet?

[Demographic Shift]

Are we tanking about tanking again?
Is Kawhi a Raptor yet?

No to kahwai...but it’s been an interesting distraction as the offseason starts to slow to a crawl....

On tanking....there is as much chance of that discussion ever stopping as you having the last word in a fight with your wife.