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  • inthepaint wrote: View Post
    That's fair. If we continue to follow that train of thought and assume Justin Hamilton's value is zero and the two picks we gave away to get rid of an albatross are non-zero in value, then this #4 pick (whether it's Doncic or not) that comes with its own albatross must be better than the combined value of Derozan, a late 1st and a 2nd.

    This player, whoever he may be, needs to be more impactful on this franchise than Demar DeRozan, a late first, and a second combined. I personally think the odds of that happening are low on this particular draft, even if it's a #4, but for those who believe there's good chance that's the case, then yeah, that trade makes sense.
    If Doncic is there I'd do it.

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    • inthepaint wrote: View Post
      That's fair. If we continue to follow that train of thought and assume Justin Hamilton's value is zero and the two picks we gave away to get rid of an albatross are non-zero in value, then this #4 pick (whether it's Doncic or not) that comes with its own albatross must be better than the combined value of Derozan, a late 1st and a 2nd.

      This player, whoever he may be, needs to be more impactful on this franchise than Demar DeRozan, a late first, and a second combined. I personally think the odds of that happening are low on this particular draft, even if it's a #4, but for those who believe there's good chance that's the case, then yeah, that trade makes sense.
      The odds are always low. The odds are not the point for this team anymore.

      This team has hit a glass ceiling. If they are happy with their current level of success (and they may be, there's a lot to like there - but all signs point to them not being happy), they should just keep DeMar in the fold and hope the coaching improvement is enough.

      If the team cares about breaking through that glass ceiling (again, all signs point to yes) they will need to make a risky move.

      The potential value of a top 5 pick is much higher than the expected value of DD, 29th and 40th (for the record the expected value of those picks is close to zero). And that's all that matters in this context.

      Judging trades like this by comparing them without concern for context is also really not the way to look at trades. Memphis would kind of like to not pay Parsons. Toronto absolutely had to get out of Carroll, if they wanted to add Miles AND duck the tax, and with their team timeline and depth of youth, those picks were worth even less than their expected value (again, objectively close to zero expected value).
      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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      • inthepaint wrote: View Post
        That's fair. If we continue to follow that train of thought and assume Justin Hamilton's value is zero and the two picks we gave away to get rid of an albatross are non-zero in value, then this #4 pick (whether it's Doncic or not) that comes with its own albatross must be better than the combined value of Derozan, a late 1st and a 2nd.

        This player, whoever he may be, needs to be more impactful on this franchise than Demar DeRozan, a late first, and a second combined. I personally think the odds of that happening are low on this particular draft, even if it's a #4, but for those who believe there's good chance that's the case, then yeah, that trade makes sense.
        I don't really understand what you're trying to argue.

        A #4 overall pick is a high pick. If Masai thinks this team's peaked with DeMar as its primary option, making this kind of trade accelerates the "rebuild", or whatever you want to call the transition the team will go through. Obviously that player has to be potentially better than DeMar, so the question is do you trust Masai to make that choice? I don't think he would make this kind of deal until draft night so he could be sure the guy he wants is available, but if he is then eating Parsons' contract is just the cost of doing business and it's a fair cost for how things work in the league.

        I don't understand the link you're trying to make between the Carroll deal and this potential scenario. Zero assets involved in the Carroll deal would be involved in the Parsons deal. Why does the pick coming back with Parsons also have to make up the value lost to get rid of Carroll? Because each guy has a bad contract? Masai can find other ways to get late 1st, or 2nd rd picks.

        And if you're looking at all his moves, he had one bad draft year with the Bruno year, and since has gone 5/5 on picks (assuming Powell can rediscover his at least role-player level value) and even got a 6th asset outside the draft in FVV over 3 offseasons. So he more than made up the value he gave up with Carroll before that trade even happened if you're looking at his body of work as a whole over the last few seasons. There are teams that would be lucky to get 1 solid piece in a 3-year span of drafting even with lottery picks. Again, Masai got 6 pieces, with the only lottery pick being a guy he got for Bargnani (aka dead weight) and another dead weight piece in Vasquez traded for Powel (a 2nd rounder). So yeah, I'm not worried about replacing value on the picks traded with Carroll. He's already way ahead of pace on finding value with low picks.
        Last edited by white men can't jump; Mon May 21, 2018, 02:09 AM.

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        • And it's really important to consider DeMar's value as well, and how it might trend. If he is able to get you a top 5 pick this summer, do you think his value will actually ever get higher? If he stays on Toronto and the Raptors just have the same kind of strong regular season but shitty playoffs, with DeMar again failing in the postseason, do you think any team will want to trade you a high lottery pick for him? I would guess probably not.

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          • If doncic is on the board Id offer demar for parsons and 4 if Memphis played hard ball for any more assets. The value of that pick goes up significantly for me if he’s available.

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            • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
              If doncic is on the board Id offer demar for parsons and 4 if Memphis played hard ball for any more assets. The value of that pick goes up significantly for me if he’s available.
              Yeah, I'd pitched DeMar for Parsons, 4 and 32, but I gladly drop 32 if Doncic slips.
              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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              • DanH wrote: View Post
                Yeah, I'd pitched DeMar for Parsons, 4 and 32, but I gladly drop 32 if Doncic slips.
                is anyone really expecting doncic to slip?

                I am not paying much attention but find it exceptionally hard to believe anyone would let a 19 year old euro-league MVP get away from them.

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                • KHD wrote: View Post
                  is anyone really expecting doncic to slip?

                  I am not paying much attention but find it exceptionally hard to believe anyone would let a 19 year old euro-league MVP get away from them.
                  There are already reports that teams high in the lotto aren't enthusiastic about him. Which I agree is madness. But never overestimate NBA GMs and you won't be surprised.
                  twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                  • Final game showed that Doncic will struggle against long and athletic defenders.

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                    • rocwell wrote: View Post
                      Final game showed that Doncic will struggle against long and athletic defenders.
                      I think Doncic is over rated somewhat. I think he is somewhere between a best case scenario (Ginobili) or worst case (Bellineli). Will probably fall somewhere in between but as a top 5 pick I don't see it.

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                      • Doncic seems like a guy that's getting to much hype. He looks like he'll be a solid pro, but I'm not seeing super star or top 10 player in the league. I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped.

                        Although I still see him going to the Suns.. and a lot of what we're hearing is just lip service.

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                        • Doncic's ability to move defense with eyes is something else. I'm not even talking about his feel of the game. It's truly remarkable for 19 year old. Players like him should be hyped up. He's the real deal.


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                          • planetmars wrote: View Post
                            Doncic seems like a guy that's getting to much hype. He looks like he'll be a solid pro, but I'm not seeing super star or top 10 player in the league. I wouldn't be surprised if he dropped.

                            Although I still see him going to the Suns.. and a lot of what we're hearing is just lip service.
                            I mean, MVP of Euroleague final 4, won Euroleague, won European Championship last summer, still only 19. Ill take that over anyone else in the draft.

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                            • Showing a clip of Vesley doing something stupid doesn't really help the point. Still not overly impressed. I mean I think he'll be good on a team that needs a PG (that seems like his ideal position in the NBA). But I'm still not seeing a super star.

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                              • DogeLover1234 wrote: View Post
                                I mean, MVP of Euroleague final 4, won Euroleague, won European Championship last summer, still only 19. Ill take that over anyone else in the draft.
                                Sergio Rodriguez, Nemanja Bjelica and Nando De Colo won MVP as well. Like I said.. I think he'll be a good player just not a super star.

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