Everything 2018 Off Season

[DanH]

I disagree the value of a late first and a second is close to zero. Siakam and FVV for example are great pieces with lots of room to grow - Siakam grew his game a lot this year, and FVV is up for 6th man of the year. They're not even first rounders. But sure, the odds of finding better talent are better at the higher picks. So yeah, odds do matter, whether is the odds of finding a FVV undrafted, or the odds of getting a Kyrie Irving on top of the draft instead of Anthony Bennett. They both could happen.

Expected value. Expected value of late 1st and early 2nd round picks are very low - near zero. Yes, sometimes you find guys who can be great, sometimes you find good role players. But your example with FVV is exactly the point. They didn't need a second round pick to get FVV, who is significantly better than the vast majority of actual 2nd round picks and several of the non-lotto 1st rounders.

Siakam was a late 1st round pick.

Bruno Caboclo and DeAndre Daniels are also late 1st and early 2nd round picks that Masai selected. Masai is a magician, but by no means is even he going to get a solid role player every time he makes a late pick.

In comparison to other teams, The raptors front office have been very good in maximizing talent and getting the most of lower picks, including Delon, norm (before he crapped out this season), Siakam and FVV. They have a solid program to develop players well, and close the gap between higher picks and lower picks. Player development has been in the forefront for the Raptors. The value of these players is not close to zero.

This argument should apply just as much to the high end picks as the low end ones. If the Raptors' player development is so great (and I agree that it is), imagine the work they could do with a blue chip prospect - meaning the value of that top 4 pick should be well above even it's typical expected value, which of course far outstrips the typical expected value of those late picks.

Which is of course of far more value than being able to get cheap role players. That's great (and the backbone of the team's recent success), but it doesn't replicate the effect of having a true star in a star driven league. Never mind that the team already has that pile of role players - adding a couple more of them would be of significantly less value than adding a potential star, especially considering that it's no guarantee at all that making those two picks yields even one solid role player.

As for DD, someone pointed out on the Derozan thread the Blake Griffin trade. Griffin and DD being somewhat similar in the sense that they're flawed multiple-time all-stars that while being very good players, the fit was no longer right for their teams. Griffin putting up 18 & 6, got the Clippers Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, a 1st rounder who turned out to be 12th overall, and a second rounder. Of course they'd have to find the right buyer which won't be easy but Derozan could fetch that kind of return.

I personally would like to see the value of Derozan maximized in a trade that would bring the right kind of defensive, tough-minded two-way players, which is what we lacked this post-season. Kawhi being the ultimate embodiment of that, so I'd like to see a package for him, though I realize that's unlikely. Failing that, if they're going to for the Parsons + 4th, I think they should also gear up to do something similar for Lowry and JV. That is, trade them for bad salaries +picks, play the bad contracts a lot, and do a bona-fide tank to get more lottery picks.

No one is arguing that they shouldn't try to trade DeMar for an established superstar. That's option 1. But it's also incredibly unlikely, so if they can't manage it by the draft (which is when any likely Kawhi move would be), they should pursue other options - high picks or high potential young players - before DeMar's value takes a downturn as he gets closer to free agency (and therefore to "rental" status).

As for trading JV and Lowry, sure. That's essentially the path I've suggested, except their value in a deal where we take on dead salary will likely be maximized as expiring contracts, which would be next season. Certainly if there is a killer deal out there, you take it, but I'd be astonished if their value was particularly high this summer.

[Demographic Shift]

Absolute Speculation Trades

Assumptions are in both instances:
James remains in Cleveland
Ainge reups Smart and caps out the Chowders as is
Paul George moves on from OKC to the Lakers
Leonard stays in San Antonio
Philly remains as is with decisions on 3 vets
That Memphis/Atlanta/ after giving away a season for the ability to make a high pick stays the course and selects a player in this draft.

Trade 1

To the LA Lakers: Demar Derozan and his 27M ACV for 3 more years
To the Toronto Raptors: Brandon Ingram... Kyle Kuzma and the contract of Luol Deng at 18m ACV for 2 more years

The Lakers without the possibliities of James or Leonard present their fan base with
Ball... George... Derozan.... Randle and approx 20+M in cap space entering next year....

The Raptors do this...
Do the Lakers do this with the assumptions that both James and Leonard stay where they are.

Trade 2

To the Minnesota Timberwolves: Kyle Lowry and his 30M ACV for 2 more years to replace the failed experiment of Jeff Teague.
To the Toronto Raptors: Andrew Wiggins and his 30M ACV for 5 more years.

I think the Wolves do this... Do the Raptors ?

[white men can't jump]

Just poking my head in, I think the DeMar to Memphis deals are sound, but a DeMar trade almost certainly won't happen. Masai cares too much about continuity and optics to trade DeMar imo, even if he did express displeasure with him.



This is such a cop out. Masai has been in a position to make big changes throughout his tenure here. He came in with absolute authority and institutional goodwill, so he could have assessed the team and made changes but he chose to wait and see how the team performed. Then after the Wizards sweep he could have made changes, or after any of the Cavs losses.



Masai is the president and he signed a 5 yr, $32 million extension in 2016. He is the boss and he has guaranteed job security. If he doesn't do anything major are we really going to put the blame on MLSE? Or is it more likely that the guy who constantly preaches continuity and internal growth is simply unwilling to take major risks--as has largely been the case for his entire tenure here?

The fact that he cares about optics is why he hasn't had as good an opportunity as now to start making big changes. The general fanbase is probably lower on this core than it has ever been, and a story about Masai calling Demar out privately came out of nowhere and you have to wonder if they wanted it out there on purpose.

The last such opportunity was when he first got here, and he almost started big changes but things worked out too well after trading Gay. So he rolled with this team. I don't agree that any other moments made sense. After the Wiz series was a good time to change the coach, but not anything else.

As for his level of autonomy I assume he is fully autonomous, but this was about the hypothetical that if there is a deal available for someone Masai wants at #4, and it doesn't happen, the question would be why? Would MLSE block him? I hope not and don't think so, but it would certainly be very alarming. Again, this is all assuming he could get someone he likes, and hopefully Masai is not so risk averse as to keep DeMar and spin our wheels for another season or two rather than maximize his trade value now. If he is, that is a different kind of alarming.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[DogeLover1234]

I get that some people don't want a rebuild; I mean who wants to lose. The thing is, once the core turns actually bad, its going to be a pretty brutal rebuild. Once you can't get any assets for star players, cause they have regressed, you are more limited in options to rebuild.

[The Great One]

Here we go again. No way i would trade DeRozan for the 4th overall pick. You gotta get more than that. DeRozan wet the bed against CLE but he's still a great player AND a legacy player.

This draft is a crapshoot after the top 3. And no, Doncic is not going to be there at 4.

One dweeb on twitter posted that the Suns and Kings might pass on Doncic and people here are all over it lmao. Can't believe everything you read on the internet. There's a lot of fake draft rumours out there. Can't believe people are still falling for it smfh.

Doncic will either be a Sun or a King. If he's there at 2 and Divac passed up on him then he should get fired on the spot.

[MixxAOR]

I get that some people don't want a rebuild; I mean who wants to lose. The thing is, once the core turns actually bad, its going to be a pretty brutal rebuild. Once you can't get any assets for star players, cause they have regressed, you are more limited in options to rebuild.

Yeah rebuild is inevitable. Right now Raps can still rebuild on their turns and control their destiny somewhat. Letting this core expire will just make it harder.

[white men can't jump]

Here we go again. No way i would trade DeRozan for the 4th overall pick. You gotta get more than that. DeRozan wet the bed against CLE but he's still a great player AND a legacy player.

This draft is a crapshoot after the top 3. And no, Doncic is not going to be there at 4.

One dweeb on twitter posted that the Suns and Kings might pass on Doncic and people here are all over it lmao. Can't believe everything you read on the internet. There's a lot of fake draft rumours out there. Can't believe people are still falling for it smfh.

Doncic will either be a Sun or a King. If he's there at 2 and Divac passed up on him then he should get fired on the spot.

I use this example again:

Ray Allen was traded for the 5th pick and he was a better player than Demar.

High lotto picks are very fair value for all-stars.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[Rudy Bargnani]

Here we go again. No way i would trade DeRozan for the 4th overall pick. You gotta get more than that. DeRozan wet the bed against CLE but he's still a great player AND a legacy player.

This draft is a crapshoot after the top 3. And no, Doncic is not going to be there at 4.

One dweeb on twitter posted that the Suns and Kings might pass on Doncic and people here are all over it lmao. Can't believe everything you read on the internet. There's a lot of fake draft rumours out there. Can't believe people are still falling for it smfh.

Doncic will either be a Sun or a King. If he's there at 2 and Divac passed up on him then he should get fired on the spot.

What would you trade Derozan for?

[The Great One]

I use this example again:

Ray Allen was traded for the 5th pick and he was a better player than Demar.

High lotto picks are very fair value for all-stars.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

True. But this draft is a crapshoot after the top 3.

Who are you going to pick? Jaren Jackson? broken Michael Porter Jr.? maybe the wannabee Steph Curry?

The Sonics btw took Jeff Green 5th overall. How did that work out for them?

[The Great One]

What would you trade Derozan for?

I look at what the Bulls got for Butler. A good young player AND a lottery pick(top 10).

[Barolt]

I look at what the Bulls got for Butler. A good young player AND a lottery pick(top 10).

Butler is better, and on a better contract.

[MixxAOR]

Thibs was willing to make that trade for his boy. I don't think it's same situation

[white men can't jump]

True. But this draft is a crapshoot after the top 3.

Who are you going to pick? Jaren Jackson? broken Michael Porter Jr.? maybe the wannabee Steph Curry?

The Sonics btw took Jeff Green 5th overall. How did that work out for them?

Maybe broken Michael Porter is worth it. We'll see what doctors say about him through the process.

And I trust Masai with drafting. If he thinks he's got a star talent availablr awesome. If not don't make the trade. Simple.

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk

[LJ2]

All we know for sure right now is that Masai does not want to tank. I would guess/hope if they were trading DeMar, it would be in a package for a star type player. Picks seem unlikely given what he has publicly stated.

[KeonClark]

All we know for sure right now is that Masai does not want to tank. I would guess/hope if they were trading DeMar, it would be in a package for a star type player. Picks seem unlikely given what he has publicly stated.

I agree, but that's not much of a discussion here anymore. The echo chamber has spoken, and we MUST tear down a 59 win team so we can play build-a-team