Everything 2018 Off Season

[jimmie]

What? Please, READ the posts. At no point did I say it was a given he would go. No one has said that.

It is a given that as of this summer, Leonard's current intention is to go to LA next summer. The Raptors would have a full season to change that. Exactly the same bet that OKC made with George and won. I think the Raptors odds of pulling it off are lower, but the reward is also WAY higher.

The point is, the chances of getting a player of Leonard's quality in the near future if we don't try this are basically zero. The odds if we do try it, are not zero. That is the point. The alternative (and the destiny we are currently facing down in the next few seasons anyway) is a tank to the bottom to try to get a top talent in the draft. Which is the outcome of losing out on this Leonard bet anyway.

Please read MY post. My position is that it appears by all accounts that he's still committed to leaving wherever he's at to go to LA next summer. Everything points in that direction. It's some real rose-coloured glasses to think you can convince him to re-sign in Toronto. Read - not impossible, but far less likely than the opposite.

What about FA to get a player of his calibre (assuming he's back to full health can can stay that way, which is also a big risk with our linmited knowledge)? Giannis is a known target of MU's.

I think you guys are just getting way too excited at the lottery-win odds of a fully healthy Leonard in a Raps uniform for the next 4-5 years. Something which is highly unlikely to happen. For someone who invests so much in statistics, it's an interesting standpoint.

[gk17]

Unless you are holding out hope you can get a high draft pick for DeMar (and considering the league's reticence to trade picks for talent at the most recent draft, that seems unlikely), does it really change the trajectory of the upcoming rebuild at all?

What's the difference between hoping that Kawhi plays/stays more than one year and hoping for a top talent out of the draft?
Someone has written in another thread: the more picks, the more chances to pick all-star-talent. I would prefer the latter. Swinging for the fences with a Kawhi trade is too much risk (for me).

[Barolt]

What's the difference between hoping that Kawhi plays/stays more than one year and hoping for a top talent out of the draft?
Someone has written in another thread: the more picks, the more chances to pick all-star-talent. I would prefer the latter. Swinging for the fences with a Kawhi trade is too much risk (for me).

This is a once in a generation opportunity. Kawhi isn't an 'all-star-talent'. He's an all-world talent.

He is one of the greatest players of this generation. He's THAT good.

[white men can't jump]

One thing that brings me back to earth with a sad reality that my man jimmie up here pointed out during his post

The 59 win Toronto Raptors could run it back, upgrade with a top 5 player in Kawhi, and our ceiling for 2019 does not change one bit.

As of right now our ceiling is win the East and get thumped in the finals. With Kawhi, our ceiling is win the East and..maybe win 1 game in the finals?

Depressing

The thing is, with Kawhi I'm confident we could challenge.

Make it to the finals with Kawhi and our D could be good enough to slow down GSW. I don't think we even win a game with DeMar as our centrepiece. And I'm not sure we beat a healthy Boston with DeMar, but see us as having a good chance with Kawhi.

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[Mitchell Duong]

I'm convincing myself this can work even if Kawhi only stays the year.

We have a two year window as a win now team. Trading DeMar for Kawhi enhances this window for next year.

I think you have to keep OG though. You roll the dice that a Kawhi led team gets to the finals. Where who knows what happens. Golden State or Houston could be there. Injuries are a thing.

Now if you keep OG, you're not really hurting your future after this window. OG wants to be the best defender in the world. Well Kawhi (even if its just a year) would benefit OG immensely.

And I still think Kawhi resigns if the Raptors get him.

As you can see I have convinced myself this can happen and will work.

[A.I]

Everything 2018 Off Season

This is a once in a generation opportunity. Kawhi isn't an 'all-star-talent'. He's an all-world talent.

He is one of the greatest players of this generation. He's THAT good.

He is a top 5 player when healthy.

You can argue top 3. Lebron, KD and Kawhi.

[gk17]

This is a once in a generation opportunity. Kawhi isn't an 'all-star-talent'. He's an all-world talent.

He is one of the greatest players of this generation. He's THAT good.

I know. It all depends on how much risk you are ready to give. I'm not that risk-taking.

[planetmars]

The only reason why I would take a 1 year stab at Kawhi is because the alternative is the reality is in 2 years we're rebuilding if we don't get him.

That window shuts. Lowry, Ibaka, DeMar will all be free agents. We'll have cap space to chase the whale, or be so bad that we're going to be hoping for the #1 overall pick. So the problem becomes that 1 year where Kawhi is gone yet we still have Lowry/DeMar and Ibaka on the books. In that one year/summer we can look to trade our expiring contracts for picks (if we can) and look to rebuild immediately or go with whatever we have left and take a stab at the ECF anyway.

That's why it's important to consider the prospects we move now. I don't think Poeltl or Wright are great long term pieces. Plus Wright is up for an extension next summer. I don't think the 2019 pick will have much value due to it being in the high 20's whether we have Kawhi or not. The riskiest prospects would be OG and Siakam.

To me this is a risk worth taking. It's like the perfect storm for Toronto considering where Boston and Philly are heading and how powerful GSW is right now. And the optics make sense considering how we lost to Lebron (again) in the spring.

[DanH]

It’s a moot point regardless but can you not use a portion of our exception and the TPE to obtain a player?

What exception? The MLE?

In any case, you cannot ever combine ANY exceptions.

[DanH]

What's the difference between hoping that Kawhi plays/stays more than one year and hoping for a top talent out of the draft?
Someone has written in another thread: the more picks, the more chances to pick all-star-talent. I would prefer the latter. Swinging for the fences with a Kawhi trade is too much risk (for me).

There isn't much difference. More 25th+ picks does not really impact the team's chances at a top talent at all. And frankly, if Kawhi leaves, that gives the Raptors a clear cut time to start the rebuild early, rather than potentially trying to run it back for the third year of the window. It maximizes their chances to win now and is probably better for a rebuild when it comes.

This is all assuming the parameters of the trade I've outlined - no OG, no post-2019 picks.

[jimmie]

The only reason why I would take a 1 year stab at Kawhi is because the alternative is the reality is in 2 years we're rebuilding if we don't get him.

That window shuts. Lowry, Ibaka, DeMar will all be free agents. We'll have cap space to chase the whale, or be so bad that we're going to be hoping for the #1 overall pick. So the problem becomes that 1 year where Kawhi is gone yet we still have Lowry/DeMar and Ibaka on the books. In that one year/summer we can look to trade our expiring contracts for picks (if we can) and look to rebuild immediately or go with whatever we have left and take a stab at the ECF anyway.

Except this isn't the only possible future. And I trust MU has a plan. I don't think he's a GM who ever considers a full rebuild.

Lowry's off the books with Ibaka and JV for the 2020 offseason. Derozan comes off the books in 2021. If no major moves are made between now and then, they've got cap space to go after whoever they want. They may need a few bucks for Fred and Delon if they want to keep them, but there's still plenty in the tank for a max FA or even two, with OG, Siakam and Poeltl still in the fold.

FAs in 2021: Giannis, KD, Anthony Davis, Lillard, McCollum, Beal, Gobert, Drummond, Oladipo...

Let's not restrict the possibilities to Leonard or tank.

[A.I]

Except this isn't the only possible future. And I trust MU has a plan. I don't think he's a GM who ever considers a full rebuild.

Lowry's off the books with Ibaka and JV for the 2020 offseason. Derozan comes off the books in 2021. If no major moves are made between now and then, they've got cap space to go after whoever they want. They may need a few bucks for Fred and Delon if they want to keep them, but there's still plenty in the tank for a max FA or even two, with OG, Siakam and Poeltl still in the fold.

FAs in 2021: Giannis, KD, Anthony Davis, Lillard, McCollum, Beal, Gobert, Drummond, Oladipo...

Let's not restrict the possibilities to Leonard or tank.

Then whats the problem with going after Leonard?

If he re-signs, you have someone you can use to try and lure Giannis or AD. If he leaves, you have enough capspace to try and sign one of them.

[inthepaint]

One thing that brings me back to earth with a sad reality that my man jimmie up here pointed out during his post

The 59 win Toronto Raptors could run it back, upgrade with a top 5 player in Kawhi, and our ceiling for 2019 does not change one bit.

As of right now our ceiling is win the East and get thumped in the finals. With Kawhi, our ceiling is win the East and..maybe win 1 game in the finals?

Depressing

That is true, ceiling remains the same (finals), but it's much easier to achieve said ceiling with Kawhi than without him.

If we do get to the finals (even if we get owned by GS, it would be huge, because: (1) we give our young guys tremendous experience and confidence for future potential championship runs, (2) gets rid of our label of playoff chokers, increasing everyone's value including our vets' (3) Strenghten our profile and chances to attract free agents in the future, (4) gives you basketball to watch in June and tons of playoff/finals revenue for the team, (5) If Curry & Durant are injured, you're right there, (6) it'd help make a compelling case to get Leonard to stay, having him choose between leaving a pretty young team that just made the finals, or going to play second fiddle to Lebron in LA.

Take a risk, get him for a year, and maintain enough good pieces around him to make the finals. Heck of a way to ride the end of our window.

Edit: RR is a hell of an echo chamber lol. Freakin' oddshark odds for Kawhi destination was probaly swung just by smoke blown by this forum and the country of Canada on twitter lol

[jimmie]

Then whats the problem with going after Leonard?

If he re-signs, you have someone you can use to try and lure Giannis or AD. If he leaves, you have enough capspace to try and sign one of them.

Because I don't believe any signs point to any possibility of him staying in Toronto, and if he leaves and you've traded Poeltl, Wright and OG to get him, and no longer have any All Stars on your roster (Lowry's old and gone, JV is gone, DD has been traded) then no top-tier FA is going to sign here in 2021.

Of course everything hinges on Leonard staying in Toronto. If he does that, then almost any package makes sense. It's just the least likely of all possible outcomes in this situation, and the negative effect of gutting Toronto's excellent bench is too much risk in that case, given that Leonard also doesn't markedly improve the chances of a championship in the next year or two.

[Jclaw]

Whether you’re considering this a one year rental or an audition, unfortunately, I don’t think the Paul George scenario applies. A couple of day before he signed, some agent on the radio said he probably would because first you take the max salary and then if it doesn’t work, you can dictate where you go. Kawhi has already declined a max salary from the Spurs. People also thought PG would leave for the Lakers. But at the time he signed, he would have been the first one in the pool (a big risk). Next year, Kawhi will know Lebron is there. That’s tough to turn down. Hopefully there’s a world where this all works for the best. It’s made a dull basketball sumner a bit more interesting.