This team isn't going to the finals

[GOLDBLUM]

What were the expectations before the season? Certainly not to reach the final or even the ECF. Therefore, I do not understand the overreaction in both directions. The season has been great and has exceeded all expectations so far. What will happen in the Play Offs is a bonus for me. I wouldn't be so disappointed, if we lose in round 2 (maybe a little bit), to reach the ECF would be outstanding, considering how balanced the East is. Of course you can dream of the finals, but you certainly you cannot expect it from this team. You have to be that realistic.

I felt they had the opportunity to make the Finals before the season began and I feel more strongly about that now than I did then.

[SkywalkerAC]

The only historically great benches I can think of like ours are the class Kings and Blazers teams of Webber and Sheed. I'm sure I'm missing plenty of other good examples, but anyone care to do the numbers how top benches actually performed in the playoffs?

[Shaolin Fantastic]

The only historically great benches I can think of like ours are the class Kings and Blazers teams of Webber and Sheed. I'm sure I'm missing plenty of other good examples, but anyone care to do the numbers how top benches actually performed in the playoffs?

Kings were only playing 8 guys in the playoffs in 2002. Webber, Bibby and Christie all over 40mpg. Almost the same thing the year before as well.

[Truth Teller]

TBF the OP could be right. But this Raptors team is the best one they have assembled in the last 5 years. Whereas last year we had no shot to beat the Cavs (lets be realistic), this year we probably have at least a 50/50 chance. It will come down to our players executing down the stretch and hopefully Lebron doesn't.

[NeedTristanThompson]

TBF the OP could be right. But this Raptors team is the best one they have assembled in the last 5 years. Whereas last year we had no shot to beat the Cavs (lets be realistic), this year we probably have at least a 50/50 chance. It will come down to our players executing down the stretch and hopefully Lebron doesn't.

I mean, sure. But why be like this? I mean like some on this site always say enjoy it. Attitudes like that of the person who started this thread remind of Tim W or whatever, if anyone remembers that guy, like an effort to be "brutally honest" or something like that which really just ends up sounding like someone who's almost unhappy about the level of success and resulting optimism around the team. Not that people can't say this stuff, but I just don't get why they'd wanna

[ebrian]

I mean if we're being honest, there's probably been a thread just like this one at some point in the season for every NBA team forum. No one thinks they are absolutely making it to the NBA Finals. Not even the Golden State Warriors fans who found out they'll be without Curry for 6 weeks, who just lost back-to-back games and lost by 11 at home to the Indiana Pacers.

Having doubts is completely normal.

[G__Deane]

If Lebron is "coasting" this regular season then his playoff performance will be something to behold. I've never been an admirer of his personality and his move to Miami but if he somehow gets Cleveland to a title this year it will be the most amazing feat ever by an NBA player. I'm hoping more that this year is different and that he really is playing at max effort right now. That makes the Cavs look more vulnerable.

If LeWhiner wins another title this year, it will be as much about the Raps underachieving, the Rockets failing and Curry being gone for the post season as anything.....

[Puffer]

If LeWhiner wins another title this year, it will be as much about the Raps underachieving, the Rockets failing and Curry being gone for the post season as anything.....

Asterisk win? Probably not, because LeBron.

[A.I]

Raptors will have home advantage in the Playoffs and the best home record in the NBA. All they need to do is beat the Cavs 3 or 4 times at home and maybe snag one on the road if they lose 1 at home. I have 100% confidence they can.

Either way, Lebron won’t have 4-7 straight historic games and Hill and Calderon won’t shoot 90% for 4-7 straight games.


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[DanH]

But things are connected. For example, if Lebron & Love maintain their normal FT rates (as your data shows) and KL/DD's FT rates drop (as they have the past 2 seasons), then the bench will be coming into games with a bigger deficit than in the regular season. And if Lebron and Love play more minutes and have more rest between games and timeouts within games, then our bench has less time to dominate other team's benches, like they have been in the regular season. It's not necessarily just a matter of the bench succeeding, it's also how much of an impact they will make to win games with the same recipe we're using to win regular season games. Is that recipe transferable to the playoffs? I guess your article will make some bold predictions - can't wait for it.

The other thing not really considered much is that star players elevate their defense in the playoffs, while coasting on D during the regular season. Raps bench will have a much harder time scoring, particularly off turnovers in transition and on putbacks from offensive rebounds. Those will dry up and it will become more of a half-court game against a more engaged D.

For those who may be interested:

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/3/28/...m-poeltl-miles

[JawsGT]

I also don't think this team will make the finals, although I doubt it will have much to do with FTr's or the benches performance against stiffer competition. As far as I'm concerned, our bench players can go toe to toe with starting caliber players, but perhaps not as a 5 man unit. Which is a great advantage this team will have as Casey can use all sorts of combinations to find a unit that works on both sides of the ball. Most teams will be playing 7 or 8 players, maybe 9, but we will have 10-12 at our disposal. We will not have to rely on a struggling player, which is significant. Ultimately though, I think our playoff success will depend alot on Demar getting back to pre all-star break levels, Ibaka being consistent on both ends of the floor and OG being able to contribute enough game in and game out to justify getting more than 15 min a game.

And I agree with the poster that suggested Poeltl/Siakim is a better matchup vs the Cavs than JV/Ibaka, at least defensively. Those guys may see alot of minutes if we meet the Cavs in the playoffs. Although I'd like to see the team use JV/Ibaka alot early on and try and force the Cavs to adjust first. Also, the Cavs will be better defensively in the post season than they are now. LBJ barely plays any D right now, that won't be the case in the playoffs.

But if I am right and we don't make the Finals, I'll be fine with that. And if I'm wrong...well that would be awesome cause then I think we would have a shot at the title as I think we can match the Rockets, but not the warriors unless they are not healthy.

[Puffer]

For those who may be interested:

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/3/28/...m-poeltl-miles

Good article Dan.

Calming.

[slaw]

Good article Dan.

Calming.

My big thing with the bench is that the Raps need it to hold the line, not win games. The starters need to be good in the first and third quarters. Can't be handing off 10-point deficits to FVV and company and expecting to have them come back with ease. They'll win the Raps a game or two but Derozan/Lowry/JV/Ibaka need to carry a big load.

[The Claw Reborn]

Just like last year, fucking Lebron will try to position his team as close as possible to the next team (this season it’s the Sixers) so they can align with the team (Raptors) who they have a better chance of winning.

Though as much as he wanted to do this shit, he still can’t win when he goes out West against a healthy Houston or Warriors.

Adam Silver and his cohorts Zebras will make sure King James will get top billing in ratings coverage.

Whoever team faces Lebron has to play perfect bball. Only way to win is to trash ISO Dumb basketball and play man to man defense. Silver and Zebras cannot avoid inevitability if team agains Cavs plays as a Unit.

[golden]

For those who may be interested:

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/3/28/...m-poeltl-miles

Nice effort, Dan. The only problem I have with the premise is trying to extrapolate regular season net ratings to playoff performance. For example, there's a lot of talk about the Cavs 'flipping the switch' and elevating their game during the playoffs. Is that true or false?

If you use their net ratings for the Cavs last 2 playoffs years against the East (6 series), the Cavs did indeed elevate their offense significantly. Their regular season ORTG was 110-113 range, but that jumped to over 120 ORTG in the playoffs. An ORTG of 120 is a ridiculously good, and it's being done against better overall competition than they would have faced in the regular season. In half those series, their DRTGs also improved over their regular season performance. I'm not sure if/how your prediction can even account for this ability to flip the switch.