This team isn't going to the finals

[Barolt]

Spoiler alert: very well. And even if they don’t, the fix is super easy.

I've talked with Dan a lot on twitter about this, we have pretty common ideas on this one.

I'm excited about his piece this week, and also about my own, which is about one of the things I think the Raptors should be doing as a solution to current struggles but currently aren't, at all.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

This is the kind of thing that everyone says, and no one really thinks about.

Why doesn't a bench matter in the playoffs? NO ONE plays a 5-man rotation in the playoffs.

Benches haven't mattered as much in the playoffs isn't the same as benches don't matter as much in the playoffs.

You need to work on your reading comprehension.

I said a bench doesn't matter "as much" not that it doesn't matter period. Because it fucking doesn't. Teams with weak benches get away with it easier because they play their starters and maybe 2 or 3 bench guys a ton of minutes. Teams with great benches like ours that run other benches out of the gym, don't get to play those benches as much so they fall off a bit. Not really rocket science.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

DeRozan and Lowry having issues is entirely a separate conversation from the one we were having, about the bench being effective in the playoffs.

Absolutely of the stars revert to the old system there will be issues. This is known.

It's not separate at all actually.

I stated that as one of the reasons why we're going to struggle more in the playoffs.

The thing is a lot of the things that are different about the regular season and playoffs hurt the Raptors. Stars become more important and our guys usually shy away from the moment or play like crap. Benches are less important and that's something that we rely on to dominate games and end them early (and avoid clutch situations that we suck at). Refs swallow their whistles except for the true grade A superstars, which we don't have.

You keep saying "if" the stars revert, but we already see it in the regular season games even. When they're close, we panic and go iso and it fails most of the time. Guess what, more of the playoff games are going to be close. We're not just going to blow away teams by going on 10-0 runs against their benches every game. I'm really worried about how Lowry/DeMar will perform in those games.

There are some positives compared to past years. I think this is the first time we've really had an elite offense and defense at the same time, and the offense is more unpredictable than it has ever been. But I think all these issues are still going to rear their heads when the going gets tough.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

LOL that's the only thing. Casey waits way too long to make adjustments. Other than demar and Kyle not playing well that may be one of the other big reasons why we struggle to get by in the first and second rounds.

Yep this is why we regularly have gone down 2-1 in series even when we have homecourt advantage.

Guess what, if we go down 2-1 to the Cavs we are out of the playoffs. LeBron is not going to sit around and let us win 3 of the last 4 games with 2 of them being in Cleveland.

To beat the Cavs we'll need to take both the first two games at home and steal game 3 or game 4 and I don't see this team doing that.

[grindhouse]

I agree with the main poster 100%. Our star players choke in the clutch and Casey is not quick on adjustments

[Barolt]

You need to work on your reading comprehension.

I said a bench doesn't matter "as much" not that it doesn't matter period. Because it fucking doesn't. Teams with weak benches get away with it easier because they play their starters and maybe 2 or 3 bench guys a ton of minutes. Teams with great benches like ours that run other benches out of the gym, don't get to play those benches as much so they fall off a bit. Not really rocket science.

Two entirely different things there.

Yes, a weak bench can be mitigated in the playoffs by more minutes for your stars.

On the other hand, a strong bench can still be a big factor in the playoffs, by providing different matchup alternatives for your team.

[MixxAOR]

The reason why Wizards lost to Celtics in playoffs was precisely because of lack of good bench. Fucking Kelly Olynyk dropped them in game 7 lol

[DanH]

It's not separate at all actually.

I stated that as one of the reasons why we're going to struggle more in the playoffs.

The thing is a lot of the things that are different about the regular season and playoffs hurt the Raptors. Stars become more important and our guys usually shy away from the moment or play like crap. Benches are less important and that's something that we rely on to dominate games and end them early (and avoid clutch situations that we suck at). Refs swallow their whistles except for the true grade A superstars, which we don't have.

You keep saying "if" the stars revert, but we already see it in the regular season games even. When they're close, we panic and go iso and it fails most of the time. Guess what, more of the playoff games are going to be close. We're not just going to blow away teams by going on 10-0 runs against their benches every game. I'm really worried about how Lowry/DeMar will perform in those games.

There are some positives compared to past years. I think this is the first time we've really had an elite offense and defense at the same time, and the offense is more unpredictable than it has ever been. But I think all these issues are still going to rear their heads when the going gets tough.

That's great. Pretty sure my response was not directed at you or any of your posts. Golden brought up that the bench will rack up fouls like crazy playing against stars because stars get a lot of foul calls in the playoffs, and I was pointing out that speaking generally that's not really true.

It is perfectly fair to be concerned about whether DD/KL can play well in the playoffs, even if there is every reason to be optimistic with recent trends. It's just not relevant to whether the bench can succeed without them in the playoffs. Two separate things.

[golden]

That's great. Pretty sure my response was not directed at you or any of your posts. Golden brought up that the bench will rack up fouls like crazy playing against stars because stars get a lot of foul calls in the playoffs, and I was pointing out that speaking generally that's not really true.

It is perfectly fair to be concerned about whether DD/KL can play well in the playoffs, even if there is every reason to be optimistic with recent trends. It's just not relevant to whether the bench can succeed without them in the playoffs. Two separate things.

But things are connected. For example, if Lebron & Love maintain their normal FT rates (as your data shows) and KL/DD's FT rates drop (as they have the past 2 seasons), then the bench will be coming into games with a bigger deficit than in the regular season. And if Lebron and Love play more minutes and have more rest between games and timeouts within games, then our bench has less time to dominate other team's benches, like they have been in the regular season. It's not necessarily just a matter of the bench succeeding, it's also how much of an impact they will make to win games with the same recipe we're using to win regular season games. Is that recipe transferable to the playoffs? I guess your article will make some bold predictions - can't wait for it.

The other thing not really considered much is that star players elevate their defense in the playoffs, while coasting on D during the regular season. Raps bench will have a much harder time scoring, particularly off turnovers in transition and on putbacks from offensive rebounds. Those will dry up and it will become more of a half-court game against a more engaged D.

[007]

Wow, I don't come on RR for a day and a bit and I miss quite a lot lol

My feelings about this team are the same as they were during our big win streak, and they're the same as they were earlier in the season: I don't see us losing to any East team in the playoffs except Cleveland, and I'd give us a 10-33% chance to beat the Cavs, depending on how we look in the earlier round(s)

[DanH]

But things are connected. For example, if Lebron & Love maintain their normal FT rates (as your data shows) and KL/DD's FT rates drop (as they have the past 2 seasons), then the bench will be coming into games with a bigger deficit than in the regular season. And if Lebron and Love play more minutes and have more rest between games and timeouts within games, then our bench has less time to dominate other team's benches, like they have been in the regular season. It's not necessarily just a matter of the bench succeeding, it's also how much of an impact they will make to win games with the same recipe we're using to win regular season games. Is that recipe transferable to the playoffs? I guess your article will make some bold predictions - can't wait for it.

The other thing not really considered much is that star players elevate their defense in the playoffs, while coasting on D during the regular season. Raps bench will have a much harder time scoring, particularly off turnovers in transition and on putbacks from offensive rebounds. Those will dry up and it will become more of a half-court game against a more engaged D.

Those are all fair questions.

Absolutely the recipe will change somewhat - the competition will, so of course. But the current recipe is a very strong starting unit, a dominant bench, and some strong-to-dominant transition lineups. All of those will still be there in varying quantities. Unless that dominant bench becomes a weak point against stronger competition, the overall outcome of success should not be altered much.

Another thing to consider with your questions though. The current recipe is leading to a near .750 winning percentage and a dominant margin of victory. No one here is expecting the Raptors to win every game by 10 points in the playoffs. There should absolutely be a drop off in performance to some degree - the competition is simply much better in the playoffs.

In any case, as you keep circling back to, the real question is whether or not KL/DD and the starters can maintain their strong play into the playoffs. If they fall apart again (which is the true litmus test of the current style of play), then yeah, the team will do worse. Literally no one is arguing that. I don't think it will happen, and with the free throw rate of the team being so much less a driver of their performance I'd expect it wouldn't kill the team even if they didn't get the calls like it has in the past. My point is that it is perfectly acceptable to be worried about the team based on the stars playoff history - I don't think it will be the issue some do but I understand it. To assume the bench will suddenly be a weak point if they play against better opposition more often is not quite so grounded, IMO.

And everyone will parrot that "well, it's not that the bench will be a weak point, but that they will be less of a strong point." And to that I say, yeah, that's true of literally every player on every playoff team, all of whom are playing stronger competition than during the regular season, carrying a heavier load and doing so for longer minutes. Except hopefully for our team, who will only be doing the first bit.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Those are all fair questions.

Absolutely the recipe will change somewhat - the competition will, so of course. But the current recipe is a very strong starting unit, a dominant bench, and some strong-to-dominant transition lineups. All of those will still be there in varying quantities. Unless that dominant bench becomes a weak point against stronger competition, the overall outcome of success should not be altered much.

Another thing to consider with your questions though. The current recipe is leading to a near .750 winning percentage and a dominant margin of victory. No one here is expecting the Raptors to win every game by 10 points in the playoffs. There should absolutely be a drop off in performance to some degree - the competition is simply much better in the playoffs.

In any case, as you keep circling back to, the real question is whether or not KL/DD and the starters can maintain their strong play into the playoffs. If they fall apart again (which is the true litmus test of the current style of play), then yeah, the team will do worse. Literally no one is arguing that. I don't think it will happen, and with the free throw rate of the team being so much less a driver of their performance I'd expect it wouldn't kill the team even if they didn't get the calls like it has in the past. My point is that it is perfectly acceptable to be worried about the team based on the stars playoff history - I don't think it will be the issue some do but I understand it. To assume the bench will suddenly be a weak point if they play against better opposition more often is not quite so grounded, IMO.

And everyone will parrot that "well, it's not that the bench will be a weak point, but that they will be less of a strong point." And to that I say, yeah, that's true of literally every player on every playoff team, all of whom are playing stronger competition than during the regular season, carrying a heavier load and doing so for longer minutes. Except hopefully for our team, who will only be doing the first bit.

Except that's not actually true. A lot of the best players ELEVATE their game in the playoffs. Paul George and LeBron are great examples.

[DanH]

Except that's not actually true. A lot of the best players ELEVATE their game in the playoffs. Paul George and LeBron are great examples.

Yes, they (well, LBJ anyway, I don't know that it's demonstrable that other stars coast in the RS quite like he does) elevate their games against better competition, with heavier loads and having to do it for more minutes. How does that invalidate what I said?

Every player in the playoffs faces a similar issue with increased competition. I'm saying if we are going to call into question the bench because they'll have to play better competition, we should be doing so for every player on every team - with perhaps a very few notable exceptions, as you point out, who have a history of being much better in the playoffs than in the regular season.

[Puffer]

The last three years the Raptors have had one of their three top players injured or missing for large chunks of the playoffs. None of the three are superstars. None of them can totally dominate a game for more than a few minutes at a time. They depend on defensive attention being split among them. That means when one of them goes missing it puts quite a load on the other two. I would say this year is different if all three stay healthy. And I would also say that offensively, the starting five are significantly better. If an injury does occur, the backups are far better able to fill the gap.

This year is different. If the major players can stay healthy, Casey is the biggest question mark in playoff success. Can he adjust quickly to whatever is happening on the court?

[Mitch P]

If Lebron is "coasting" this regular season then his playoff performance will be something to behold. I've never been an admirer of his personality and his move to Miami but if he somehow gets Cleveland to a title this year it will be the most amazing feat ever by an NBA player. I'm hoping more that this year is different and that he really is playing at max effort right now. That makes the Cavs look more vulnerable.