This team isn't going to the finals

[DanH]

Nice effort, Dan. The only problem I have with the premise is trying to extrapolate regular season net ratings to playoff performance. For example, there's a lot of talk about the Cavs 'flipping the switch' and elevating their game during the playoffs. Is that true or false?

If you use their net ratings for the Cavs last 2 playoffs years against the East (6 series), the Cavs did indeed elevate their offense significantly. Their regular season ORTG was 110-113 range, but that jumped to over 120 ORTG in the playoffs. An ORTG of 120 is a ridiculously good, and it's being done against better overall competition than they would have faced in the regular season. In half those series, their DRTGs also improved over their regular season performance. I'm not sure if/how your prediction can even account for this ability to flip the switch.

No analysis can. In any case I expect any switch-flipping would be in place for the Raptors starters to deal with as well, meaning the bench should still not be the primary concern.

That's a whole other discussion, whether the Cavs will suddenly be a much better team, and how much better. I don't think it impacts this analysis though.

[Barolt]

How teams perform in the playoffs is so matchup dependent it's hard to predicatively use past performances. Last year, Cleveland played Indiana/Toronto/Boston in the East, none of whom were able to adequately defend their lineup versatility. This year, they have less lineup versatility and likely a very different path, and it's hard to say how that impacts the performance.

[NoPropsneeded]

Nice effort, Dan. The only problem I have with the premise is trying to extrapolate regular season net ratings to playoff performance. For example, there's a lot of talk about the Cavs 'flipping the switch' and elevating their game during the playoffs. Is that true or false?

If you use their net ratings for the Cavs last 2 playoffs years against the East (6 series), the Cavs did indeed elevate their offense significantly. Their regular season ORTG was 110-113 range, but that jumped to over 120 ORTG in the playoffs. An ORTG of 120 is a ridiculously good, and it's being done against better overall competition than they would have faced in the regular season. In half those series, their DRTGs also improved over their regular season performance. I'm not sure if/how your prediction can even account for this ability to flip the switch.

At the same time though they don't have those same vets that can just flip the switch. They got 3 young guys in the rotation in Hood, Clarkson and Nance who have zero playoff experience

[golden]

At the same time though they don't have those same vets that can just flip the switch. They got 3 young guys in the rotation in Hood, Clarkson and Nance who have zero playoff experience

That’s the thing. They only need Lebron to flip the switch and it elevates the rest of the roster. And they finally figured out how to maximize Love. We just saw that in the last Raps-Cavs game with Jose and Hill going nuts from 3. People called that a fluke, but it’s always a different role player stepping up around Lebron. One night it will be JR, or Korver, or Hood, or TT will have 15 put backs. That is what transcendent players do.... they boost the confidence and performance of the entire team. It’s not a fluke when it happens again and again, year after year. Channing goddamn Frye.

[JimiCliff]

That’s the thing. They only need Lebron to flip the switch and it elevates the rest of the roster. And they finally figured out how to maximize Love. We just saw that in the last Raps-Cavs game with Jose and Hill going nuts from 3. People called that a fluke, but it’s always a different role player stepping up around Lebron. One night it will be JR, or Korver, or Hood, or TT will have 15 put backs. That is what transcendent players do.... they boost the confidence and performance of the entire team. It’s not a fluke when it happens again and again, year after year. Channing goddamn Frye.

But this year, the roster is lacking that second player who can elevate their game by themselves. The strongest Lebron teams, the legitimate contenders, all had that guy. This one doesn't; because of this, they can lose in the East.

For the Raptors, it will be a mental game. If DD and Lowry believe they can beat Lebron, they will. If they don't, they won't.

[golden]

But this year, the roster is lacking that second player who can elevate their game by themselves. The strongest Lebron teams, the legitimate contenders, all had that guy. This one doesn't; because of this, they can lose in the East.

For the Raptors, it will be a mental game. If DD and Lowry believe they can beat Lebron, they will. If they don't, they won't.

Good points. Unfortunately DD and KL also have a reputation for de-elevating their teams, so I’d totally agree.... this playoff year is more about us. Every metric says we should easily dispatch the Cavs. But are they still afraid of Lebron? Have KL/DD/Casey learned their lessons from previous years? Are the new playing habits ingrained deep enough, or will KL/DD revert under pressure? Can Casey make some brilliant in game adjustments to new tactics on the fly? It’s gonna be fun.

[inthepaint]

I mean if we're being honest, there's probably been a thread just like this one at some point in the season for every NBA team forum. No one thinks they are absolutely making it to the NBA Finals. Not even the Golden State Warriors fans who found out they'll be without Curry for 6 weeks, who just lost back-to-back games and lost by 11 at home to the Indiana Pacers.

Having doubts is completely normal.

Yes, having doubts is normal. But there's "having doubts", and then there is going out of your way to make a thread to categorically state the team is not going to the finals. I mean, maybe they won't make it to the finals, but by all real metrics, there's a good chance they will. That also happens to be true for the Celtics and Cavs.

The point is, there's a lot more parity in the league this season than in recent years, and any team at top 2 or 3 at their conference have a good shot at it. Trying to say anything else before the playoffs even start sounds really premature and antagonistic, imo. Though I get why it's done: team overperforms on the season, raise expectations --> people are scared of disappointment --> People make threads/comments like this to lower their own expectations, and avoid said potential "disappointment".

That has to do more with the fans then with the team. I mean, any of the "five points" in the OP could've been said in the middle of the winning streaks or when we were 18-2, and there's nothing that happened since Mar 18th when went 3-3 that should "assure" anyone they're not going to the finals.

At any rate, the very existence of a "they're not going to the finals" thread, ironically actually supports the argument they CAN make it to the finals. In other words, in years past, a thread like this would be silly (for different reasons), because it was so clear we wouldn't be in the NBA finals that no one needed to state that. If I'm in bed at night chanting repeatedly with my ears covered "I'm not scared of the boogeyman" that probably means I AM scared of the boogeyman.

I choose to believe they CAN make it to the finals, because objectively, they can. If they make it, I'll celebrate. If they don't, I'll be disappointed, but if they fight hard trying, I won't call it a fail the fact that for first time in history they've played well enough to make that even possible.

[JawsGT]

yeah, not looking so good right now.

[G__Deane]

Good points. Unfortunately DD and KL also have a reputation for de-elevating their teams, so I’d totally agree.... this playoff year is more about us. Every metric says we should easily dispatch the Cavs. But are they still afraid of Lebron? Have KL/DD/Casey learned their lessons from previous years? Are the new playing habits ingrained deep enough, or will KL/DD revert under pressure? Can Casey make some brilliant in game adjustments to new tactics on the fly? It’s gonna be fun.

That's the only question for me. And the only real concern. Casey outcoached regularly

[Mapko]

For those who may be interested:

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/3/28/...m-poeltl-miles

Very, very interesting.
Furthermore if our bench plays agains other teams "stars" in playoffs, odds are, those stars will likely play much heavier minutes agains our rested bench. Do you see any reason our bench wont be able to at least hold while giving our starters few more mins of rest?

[S.R.]

Very, very interesting.
Furthermore if our bench plays agains other teams "stars" in playoffs, odds are, those stars will likely play much heavier minutes agains our rested bench. Do you see any reason our bench wont be able to at least hold while giving our starters few more mins of rest?

I think we're likely to see less of the bench as a 5 man unit, but still likely to see a 9-10 man rotation. There'll be more situational mixing and matching. The advantage to Toronto's depth isn't that players 6-10 have to play together, it's just that they're good players with different skill sets that the starters. They're going to be usable. It's a Swiss army knife team.

I suspect (and hope) Casey is saving lineup combinations in these BOS/CLE games for the playoffs.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Nobody has insinuated that the bench will be a "weakness" in the playoffs like that article suggests.

The idea is that the bench will continue to be a strength, but a strength that is diminished more in the playoffs by the fact that other teams will not play their 9-12 rotation guys nearly as many minutes.

[S.R.]

Pretty fair breakdown here - https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/4...e-lebron-james

Toronto has occasionally fallen into old bad habits and gone stagnant offensively for at least one extended stretch of the game—a worrisome trend considering its past playoff blunders. But the problem isn’t the offense. They’re not jacking up midrange jumpers (in fact, they’re attempting more layups and 3s) and they’re still hitting shots (they’ve drilled over 40 percent of their 3s). They torched the Cavs in the first half of their loss on March 21, and played good basketball for about three quarters against the Celtics on Saturday. DeMar DeRozan’s shooting has fallen off a cliff, but the team, as a whole, is still racking up points.

Defense is the primary concern. Toronto is forcing fewer turnovers, which means it’s not getting into its transition offense as often. And its perimeter defenders have been turnstiles, allowing constant penetration that has put its bigs in tough positions, which leads to layups, drawn fouls, or kickouts for open 3s for the opposition...The Raptors post a 115.7 defensive rating against offenses ranked in the top 10, according to data from NBA.com’s John Schuhmann, compared to approximately 99.6 against all other teams. In other words, they’ve gotten beaten up by great offenses, and returned the favor against the average and bad ones. DeRozan in particular leaves his teammates out to dry with either poor effort or plain bad positioning....Dwane Casey has strong defensive lineups he can use. Siakam is a gritty, versatile defender. Poeltl is a better rim protector than Valanciunas. OG Anunoby is a versatile forward. Fred VanVleet has been a revelation with his hard-nosed play at point guard. But if Casey prioritizes defense in his lineup, then the offense becomes an issue. The Celtics were able to go zone against the Raptors because Poeltl doesn’t need to be guarded on the perimeter when Toronto runs handoff sets out of its motion offense, and you’re begging Siakam, a career 21.1 percent 3-point shooter, to shoot. VanVleet is solid, but he’s not a guy who will manufacture offense against set defenses. Though Anunoby has been hitting 3s since returning from injury in mid-March, opponents still don’t respect his shot (36 percent on 2.6 attempts per game over the full season). And here’s the major issue facing Toronto if it ends up facing Cleveland in the playoffs: either Siakam or Anunoby needs to defend LeBron, because no one else on the roster is physically equipped to do so. Casey needs to figure out the right combinations before it’s too late. He’s been experimenting as of late, mixing in Norman Powell a bit more despite his struggles. It’ll be interesting to see if he finds a new group that works, or quickly reverts to the lineups that have been most effective throughout the season. But it’s hard not to be worried that the Raptors peaked too early—or that maybe they aren’t what we thought they were.

[golden]

Pretty fair breakdown here - https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/4...e-lebron-james

It's pretty apparent that Kyle and even moreso Demar, have taken their foot of the gas on defense. Fortunately, that is easily fixable with effort and will immediately improve once the playoffs start. Stevens taking DeMar out of the game while exposing our lack of consistent 3-pt shooting using a 2-3 grade school zone was more troubling.

[DanH]

It's pretty apparent that Kyle and even moreso Demar, have taken their foot of the gas on defense. Fortunately, that is easily fixable with effort and will immediately improve once the playoffs start. Stevens taking DeMar out of the game while exposing our lack of consistent 3-pt shooting using a 2-3 grade school zone was more troubling.

Meh, it only worked because our two best shooters were having their 9th worst and worst shooting nights of the year on the same night at the same time that Casey decided to not use any lineups that should actually play together for that stretch.