Eastern Conference Playoff Preview: Predictions on Rounds 1 and 2. Whose going to the Finals ?

[DanH]

Somewhere..maybe in Montana...the voice of a mysterious bearded zen master says..” I told you so”.....


And just noticing that the price to unload Demarre Carroll and keep the Raptors core together while staying under the cap is the 29th and 59th picks in the draft....who are unlikely to put either of the raps or nets over the top.......Masai Ujiri is the exec of the year.

59th? Where you getting that?

We traded our 1st rounder and the Orlando/LAL 2nd rounder. So, 29th and 40th.

I agree that it's not a terrible price. But I don't think Masai has a shot at EOY. He didn't do much this year.

[Demographic Shift]

59th? Where you getting that?

We traded our 1st rounder and the Orlando/LAL 2nd rounder. So, 29th and 40th.

I agree that it's not a terrible price. But I don't think Masai has a shot at EOY. He didn't do much this year.

Ah.. yes your correct in noting its 29 and 40 not 29 and 59... ..my numerical error. On a player impact scale 29 and 40 is not all that much different than 29 and 59. It might be... but pretty unlikely. There are of course exceptions to the rule. If you were to attempt to monetize the trade it shapes up something along the lines of a net trade of 30M out at a a cost of ~2M.

The case for Ujiri in my view is compelling in that his background work over the past couple seasons is now in full view this season.

- on the all important Win Loss metric his organization finished 2nd overall in Wins
- his ability to recognize front office and coaching talent is unparalleled. The organization is producing coaching candidates for the rest of the league.. Stackhouse and Nurse this year... Mermuys a year ago and the current Pres /GM Jeff Weltman in Orlando are all Ujiri people. Only the best organizations seem to provide personnel for the league at large.
- his ability to get out in front of potential problems and address them for a low salvage cost (the Carroll trade) speaks to his financial management acumen as well as his talent recognition
- finding players in the draft in the 20's that are NBA rotation players on a successful team
- finding a player in VanVleet in the undrafted pool of talent is another gem
- Ujri is at the forefront of investing in a minor league organization that has provided a very successful player development platform that has been replicated throughout the league. Mimicking is the sincerest form of flattery.

Its the sum of the parts that makes him the EOY.

Yes Darryl Morey made the CP3 trade but it was a closed market process made available only to Houston. In the only league where players have a say where they play... Paul said Houston. Morey and Rivers negotiated the terms of the transaction. Pretty much anyone could do that.

Can't point to too many organizations who have risen to the top quartile of the NBA in both on court and organizational ranking with with little capital to work with. Toronto so far has not been a preferred destination for free agents and the highest picks in the draft the Raps have had over the past few years is a 9th. Lots in the 20's.

So comparatively speaking he has made his arbitrary million dollars using a bankroll of a 1000 dollars... His competitors, Trader Danny and Trader Daryl have also made the million dollars .. but they started out with a substantially larger bankroll in terms of draft position and free agency desirability.

Viewed through the lens of who did more with less against the guys who made the same with a lot more to start with its Ujiri in a walk. Thats why at least to this committee of one...he is EOY.

[DanH]

Yeah, but the award is for moves done this season. Masai did all his good work (exception, OG slipping to us, which is kind of lucky) in previous seasons.

It's a flaw in the award, but it's a flaw that's there. Guys who work slowly don't win GM awards. Just like players like DeMar don't win MIP. C'est la vie.

[KeonClark]

Yes Darryl Morey made the CP3 trade but it was a closed market process made available only to Houston. In the only league where players have a say where they play... Paul said Houston. Morey and Rivers negotiated the terms of the transaction. Pretty much anyone could do that.

Can't point to too many organizations who have risen to the top quartile of the NBA in both on court and organizational ranking with with little capital to work with. Toronto so far has not been a preferred destination for free agents and the highest picks in the draft the Raps have had over the past few years is a 9th. Lots in the 20's.

So comparatively speaking he has made his arbitrary million dollars using a bankroll of a 1000 dollars... His competitors, Trader Danny and Trader Daryl have also made the million dollars .. but they started out with a substantially larger bankroll in terms of draft position and free agency desirability.

Viewed through the lens of who did more with less against the guys who made the same with a lot more to start with its Ujiri in a walk. Thats why he is EOY.

Hi! Devils Advocate here! Sure maybe CP3 picked Houston and "anyone can do that"...but the REASON he picked Houston is because Darryl Morey and had already built a contender. That has to be taken into account if we're taking the broader lens view

[S.R.]

Dammit why do you guys have to remind us that unloading Carroll has cost us the next Bruno?

[Demographic Shift]

Two more teams punched tickets to the 2nd round last night. The Hinks disposed of the Heat and the Warriors finished off the dynasty in decline in San Antonio in 5. The Chowderheads found enough offence at home to beat the Bucks in what looks to be a 7 gamer. Home court rules in this one.

Tonight sees a lot of pivotal game 5's and really pivotal game 7.

Pacers at the NewLooks The Pacers gave back homecourt to the NewLooks on Sunday in a game where Victor Olidipo had the finishng touch of a blacksmith. Tonight the Pacers season is on the line. If they don't win this one don't see them beating the NewLooks two in a row. Tough call here.... but Indy has surpised everyone all year. Just not tonight. NewLooks W.

Wiz at Raps Everything has been said. Twice.. maybe even three times. From my cheap seat the Raps are still the better team. They are at home. Raps W.

Mormons at Chokelahoma Russell Westbrook is becoming unglued in his pursuit of showing the world how good he is.... at his.... and his teams expense. In what might be PushOff P's and Carmelo's last stand this year I think the Thunder are 50/50 to stave off elimination at home tonight. The Mormons make them work for it but OKC's best before date ends in the first round. If not tonight .. then game 6 in Salt Lake.

Minny in Houston The Rockets sprinkle holy water on the Wolves and drive the stake through their hearts tonight. The injury to Butler dropping the Wolves from home court to the 8th seed proves to be too much to overcome.

GAME 7 - LEAFS vs BRUINS. Diversity rules man. Its the Leafs speed against the Bruins physical game. The Bruins get their scoring from one line and Cassidy has played them a shit tonne this series. They are tired and it showed in game 6 when the Leafs were able to close them down and limit pressure in the third period. That trend continues tonight.

Freddy Anderson is on his game as is Tuuka Rask. The Bruins defense is better than what the Leafs have but the Leafs have a young team and they believe they can get it done. And speed.... Speed kills. Leafs W.

[Demographic Shift]

Yeah, but the award is for moves done this season. Masai did all his good work (exception, OG slipping to us, which is kind of lucky) in previous seasons.

It's a flaw in the award, but it's a flaw that's there. Guys who work slowly don't win GM awards. Just like players like DeMar don't win MIP. C'est la vie.

I will take that as grudging agreement.

[Demographic Shift]

Hi! Devils Advocate here! Sure maybe CP3 picked Houston and "anyone can do that"...but the REASON he picked Houston is because Darryl Morey and had already built a contender. That has to be taken into account if we're taking the broader lens view

Being kinda of a dink time......

So if one of or both of Paul George or Khawai Leonard "pick" LA next year.. is that brillant tactician Magic Johnson the EOY ?
Or just a guy in the right place at the right time....

[DanH]

Being kinda of a dink time......

So if one of or both of Paul George or Khawai Leonard "pick" LA next year.. is that brillant tactician Magic Johnson the EOY ?
Or just a guy in the right place at the right time....

Meh, it's the same as a guy like OG slipping to us. Great pick, and he could have gone elsewhere and it would have been totally out of our control.

[Demographic Shift]

Not cynical really, just realist. I absolutely agree for our purposes here that we can look at what he's done and put him in the category of exec of the year. Your pointing out of the positioning of those draft picks speaks incredibly highly of the soundness of that decision, despite the cries of many here in giving up two picks at the time. While we can fully appreciate it though, that kind of minutia won't land on voters. We all know him to be the most valuable GM in the league but I don't see the award going his way this time round, based on the criteria that people will be evaluating. They'll wanna see something splashier, I suspect.

May be foolish but believe that not everyone is as myopic as Toronto sports media and fans....

[KeonClark]

Being kinda of a dink time......

So if one of or both of Paul George or Khawai Leonard "pick" LA next year.. is that brillant tactician Magic Johnson the EOY ?
Or just a guy in the right place at the right time....

Kind of missed the point. George would be picking LA based on city and market, not on team building prior to arrival. The opposite was true for CP to Houston

[Demographic Shift]

Meh, it's the same as a guy like OG slipping to us. Great pick, and he could have gone elsewhere and it would have been totally out of our control.

yet he still wound up here ... after arguably 13 to 15 other organizations passed on him.....go figure

[Demographic Shift]

Kind of missed the point. George would be picking LA based on city and market, not on team building prior to arrival. The opposite was true for CP to Houston

No.. I got it... I am on the tangent that being able to create something substantial without an inherent built in advantage is a tougher road to success. The Ujiri road.

The brilliant tactician Ervin Johnson is standing there waiting for something to fall into his lap. A hoping for the best strategy is not a particularly sound one .. If George or Leonoard or James opt to play elsewhere he could just as easily be phucked as successful. Magic in effect will be left standing at the alter.

And on a bit of stretch its the same for Morey... If Paul says he want to play in Miami.... What does he do ? This guy was going to go after Carmelo ...

[Scraptor]

Kind of missed the point. George would be picking LA based on city and market, not on team building prior to arrival. The opposite was true for CP to Houston

And it cascades down to PJ too.

Tucker, who turned down a bigger offer from the Toronto Raptors to sign with the Rockets last summer, in large part because he wanted to play with Paul.

Better taxes and weather in Houston is a part of it but guys want to play where there's a real chance of winning the title. If we make the Finals we could change how we are viewed, and then maybe we add the missing piece next year and Masai gets more EOY consideration.

[Demographic Shift]

So in a few days we can tote up who wins the first round sweepstakes on who advanced to round 2 in both confrences....... it will be a simple binary methodolgy... A correct pick to advance counts as 1.

GLF picked all 16 teams to lose as is his wont so no one who voted will finish last....

Go Raps / Leafs / Jays / TFC tonight !