Everything 2018 NBA draft

[Apollo]

Why the need to unload Parsons I wonder, I always considered him a decent player. I guess the contract is pretty big for his production, but next year is the last year of the deal is it not?

People are believing the rumor and not considering it may be a smoke screen.

Then they look at Gasol, who has only three years left on his contract and probably his career. Then they look at Conley and see he only has three years left on his contract and his prime. Then they look at the Raptors and acknowledge they don't appreciate DD's game for obvious reasons. They rightfully also probably feel frustrated by the embrassing ass whooping the Raptors took from the Cavs.

The only conslusion is the best thing Memphis can do is deal the opportunity to take Doncic, Porter, JJJ or Bamba in exchange for a black hole with only a couple years of peak playing left in the tank. It fits if you believe Memphis is a collection of idiots who truely believe their treadmill team can overcome the Warriors and Rockets if only they had a guy who vanishes in the playoffs and who has a game that doesn't make anyone around him better.

[DanH]

People are believing the rumor and not considering it may be a smoke screen.

Then they look at Gasol, who has only three years left on his contract and probably his career. Then they look at Conley and see he only has three years left on his contract and his prime. Then they look at the Raptors and acknowledge they don't appreciate DD's game for obvious reasons. They rightfully also probably feel frustrated by the embrassing ass whooping the Raptors took from the Cavs.

The only conslusion is the best thing Memphis can do is deal the opportunity to take Doncic, Porter, JJJ or Bamba in exchange for a black hole with only a couple years of peak playing left in the tank. It fits if you believe Memphis is a collection of idiots who truely believe their treadmill team can overcome the Warriors and Rockets if only they had a guy who vanishes in the playoffs and who has a game that doesn't make anyone around him better.

I don't think even the MEM group thinks they can beat the Warriors. But I also think being a playoff team is more important to that ownership group than true competitiveness, and DeMar can power an offence to make the playoffs, that's for sure.

[octothorp]

Also, I can't see a small market team like Memphis passing up on a high lottery pick. This is as high a pick as they've had since the Thabeet pick in 2009.

Memphis is definitely at a crossroads. Their best players are both north of 30, but still good for a few more years. Do they want to try to take one more shot with Conley and Gasol? If not, they might as well blow it up right now. But if they do want to take another shot with those guys, Conley/Gasol/DeRozan as a core probably puts them second-tier in the West, below Houston and GSW, but even with the rest. With a small market team they might decide they don't have the patience for a long-haul rebuild.

I think the odds favour them keeping the pick, but I can definitely see a scenario where they make a 'compete now' move.

[Fuchan]

Yeah maybe Memphis just wanted to taste some success, I remember those days for the raptors. Then again, we aren't in the slaughterhouse that is the western conference

[A.I]

I don't think even the MEM group thinks they can beat the Warriors. But I also think being a playoff team is more important to that ownership group than true competitiveness, and DeMar can power an offence to make the playoffs, that's for sure.

Sales are important for a small market team. Its very possible they just look to make the Playoffs for the next few years and get as much business/sales as possible.

[white men can't jump]

I don't think even the MEM group thinks they can beat the Warriors. But I also think being a playoff team is more important to that ownership group than true competitiveness, and DeMar can power an offence to make the playoffs, that's for sure.

Yup.

I don't buy the analytics and non-idiot mgmt arguments for why they wouldn't make a deal. This team signed an already deteriorating Parsons to a massive deal. Teams desperate to improve make bad choices, even if they go against their standard principles.



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[Scraptor]

In the 2011-12 season, DeRozan had a PER of 12.8. Hollinger, the creator of PER, somewhat unsurprisingly ranked DeRozan as a below average player (average PER is 15).

In the 2017-18 season, DeRozan had a PER of 21.0, and over the past three seasons averaged a PER of 22.

DeRozan was 15th in minutes played, and among the top 100 players in minutes played (2000+ MP total), he ranked 15th in PER.

That's a very different player from the one that Hollinger was less than high on early in his career.

It's not like Hollinger only uses one stat though. This was his 2012-13 preview for DeMar:

+ One-dimensional scorer who can get to the rim and draw fouls. Midrange shooter.
+ Great leaper, finisher. Ball hog with iffy handle, passes only as last resort.
+ Decent defensive tools but focus an issue. Struggles to guard big 3s.

Analysis

DeRozan averaged nearly a point every two minutes last season, ranking in the top third of shooting guards in that metric. And that about does it for the good news.

Few players score an emptier 20 than this guy. Offensively, DeRozan drew fouls at a high rate (eighth among shooting guards) and made his freebies (81 percent). But his secondary percentage was still less than the norm for the position because he made only 24 3-pointers all season, and his midrange stroke had some snags, too. DeRozan had made a strong 41.5 percent of his long 2s in 2010-11, but that might have been an outlier; he converted only 35.7 percent last season. Given that he mostly shot long 2s, that was a problem.

His other problem is that he doesn't notice the other four guys on the court. It's one thing for DeRozan to be a mildly inefficient, high-volume shooter, but he also created only for himself. He ranked just 56th out of 61 shooting guards in pure point rating.

Defensively, DeRozan improved but still has a long way to go to become decent. Some of that can be attributed to playing more at the 3, where he struggled with size mismatches. However, his effort and technique also could use a significant upgrade. DeRozan ranked near the bottom of Synergy's rankings, while the Raptors gave up 3.5 points per 100 possessions more with him on the court.

It's hard to overcome that kind of early impression. I agree that Memphis is likely to make a move given Michael Pera's comments, but I think it's just wishful thinking that DeMar is the guy they'll want.

[DanH]

It's not like Hollinger only uses one stat though. This was his 2012-13 preview for DeMar:

It's hard to overcome that kind of early impression. I agree that Memphis is likely to make a move given Michael Pera's comments, but I think it's just wishful thinking that DeMar is the guy they'll want.

There aren't that many all-stars on the market. Sure, I'm sure they'd love to add Kawhi Leonard, but he's also a bigger flight risk with an opt-out after only one more year, and the price for him would be way higher than just the 4th pick.

DeMar is acquirable, a top level scorer (which is what they most need), is locked in for two years (the likely window for their current guys), and would not only cost them only the one pick, but also afford them an opportunity to improve without increasing costs by shedding Parsons.

It's easy to overcome that sort of early impression if you address the concerns in the early impression. His defence is no better, but he doesn't live off foul line shots anymore, his shot spectrum is dramatically improved, and his playmaking has improved leaps and bounds beyond what he showed early in his career, peaking with this year where he posted an assist rate near that of a scoring PG.

[white men can't jump]

It's not like Hollinger only uses one stat though. This was his 2012-13 preview for DeMar:



It's hard to overcome that kind of early impression. I agree that Memphis is likely to make a move given Michael Pera's comments, but I think it's just wishful thinking that DeMar is the guy they'll want.

DeMar might be by far the best offer they get. So far a lot of other rumours I've seen about interested teams have been teams with space to absorb Parsons at the cost of #4 without really sending anything back.

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[planetmars]

DeMar might be by far the best offer they get. So far a lot of other rumours I've seen about interested teams have been teams with space to absorb Parsons at the cost of #4 without really sending anything back.

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A better offer could be Love for #4. Plus the Cavs will be tanking if they don't get Lebron. Masai is at best iffy about the direction he's taking so Memphis may call Cleveland to make something happen before they call Masai about DeMar.

Love has 2 more years on his contract.. and actually showed up in the playoffs for the most part.

[DanH]

A better offer could be Love for #4. Plus the Cavs will be tanking if they don't get Lebron. Masai is at best iffy about the direction he's taking so Memphis may call Cleveland to make something happen before they call Masai about DeMar.

Love has 2 more years on his contract.. and actually showed up in the playoffs for the most part.

Love is definitely another option, though they might question his durability (which could be scary for them after Parsons and Conley) and whether he can be a top scorer like he used to be pre-LeBron.

[white men can't jump]

A better offer could be Love for #4. Plus the Cavs will be tanking if they don't get Lebron. Masai is at best iffy about the direction he's taking so Memphis may call Cleveland to make something happen before they call Masai about DeMar.

Love has 2 more years on his contract.. and actually showed up in the playoffs for the most part.

The Cavs probably won't know LeBron's choice though. If they make that trade, they are basically telling LeBron they're tanking.

Cleveland could go either way. If they decide they really want to convince LeBron to stay, I could see the 8th pick being available. For instance maybe they would have interest in Lowry for the 8th pick if we'll take a bloated contract or two off their hands.

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[Apollo]

What the Cavs should have done is go to James and tell him they want to win another Chip and they want him to be involved more heavily with what they do with the pick, free agency and the trade market. I'm typically not a proponent of players being involved with personnel decisions but this is the best player in the world and he just got embarrassed in the finals because the moves they made didn't do a thing to improve the team from the season prior. James is not going to say move up in the draft. James is going to say move out of the draft and use that pick to help bring in a guy like Leonard. He has to take a defeat like this personally it was that bad. He needs to come back firing and the Cavs have the assets to give him the partner(s) he needs to make that happen.

[LJ2]

Problem with that is Leonard is prioritizing where he plays over winning a chip.

[planetmars]

Love is definitely another option, though they might question his durability (which could be scary for them after Parsons and Conley) and whether he can be a top scorer like he used to be pre-LeBron.

The idea would be to swap Parsons (and the 4th pick) for Love. Cleveland takes on the bad contract to get the young prospect to rebuild with.