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  • Barolt wrote: View Post
    For the record, on the statistical models, Doncic doesn't just rate as the best prospect in this draft - he rates as the best prospect since Anthony Davis.
    I agree Doncic is the best player in the draft.

    What I don't agree with is the weird Manu comparison or that a Manu-type should always be taken #1.

    Comment


    • golden wrote: View Post
      The point is: What does this have to do with Doncic... other than you walking right into that punchline. lol. Racial/national stereotypes are definitely on-topic when we talk about Doncic.

      Donald Sterling once said "... he would never pay that much for a white player.." in reference to JJ Redick. Do you think Donald Sterling was/is the only owner or front office executive in the NBA who thinks like that? That's going to factor into where Doncic is drafted tonight.
      Again... thank you for making my point for me. That race and religion and ethnicity bring out the worst in people.
      There's no such thing as a 2nd round bust.
      - TGO

      Comment


      • Barolt wrote: View Post
        For the record, on the statistical models, Doncic doesn't just rate as the best prospect in this draft - he rates as the best prospect since Anthony Davis.
        What models are you looking at? ESPN's believes Bagley III will be the best prospect:
        http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...ft-projections

        tothemean has Doncic 3rd after Carter Jr and Jackson Jr:
        http://www.tothemean.com/2018/06/10/nba-draft-2018.html

        538 doesn't have Doncic since their system doesn't grade European talent:
        https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...o-my-computer/

        Comment


        • A lot of the guys out there running analytical models aren't even including Doncic in their rankings. Not because he's not good but because of where he's playing and how that makes it impossible to accurately compare him to the college guys.

          Comment


          • Then there's the fact that often we're hot on analytics on the leadup but that's forgotten shortly after. Head back and look at some of those sites such as ESPN and see how many guys they missed on by using solely math. Basketball is a team game and the analytics can be impacted significantly by teammates, coach, system and health.

            Comment


            • planetmars wrote: View Post
              What models are you looking at? ESPN's believes Bagley III will be the best prospect:
              http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/2...ft-projections

              tothemean has Doncic 3rd after Carter Jr and Jackson Jr:
              http://www.tothemean.com/2018/06/10/nba-draft-2018.html

              538 doesn't have Doncic since their system doesn't grade European talent:
              https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...o-my-computer/
              Kevin Pelton's model has Doncic 1st. So does Jacob Goldstein's.
              twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

              Comment


              • Apollo wrote: View Post
                A lot of the guys out there running analytical models aren't even including Doncic in their rankings. Not because he's not good but because of where he's playing and how that makes it impossible to accurately compare him to the college guys.
                There's some inaccuracy here. In the lottery, european players are less frequently busts in the last decade than college players.
                twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

                Comment


                • This guy really sounds like Bo Callahan lmao. He's proven absolutely nothing. He missed most of last season because of his back injury which is still a concern. This guy has a lot of red flags surrounding his health.

                  Mamba Mentality

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                  • Here's one that I look are each year: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...o-my-computer/

                    He's saying:
                    1 Deandre Ayton
                    2 Marvin Bagley III
                    3 Jaren Jackson Jr.
                    4 Mohamed Bamba
                    5 Wendell Carter Jr.
                    6 Trae Young
                    7 Kevin Knox
                    8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
                    9 Collin Sexton
                    10 Zhaire Smith

                    He doesn't get into why Doncic isn't in there. They skipped Euros and Porter Jr.

                    Comment


                    • Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
                      There are plenty of drafts where a 19 year old Manu should not go #1. Yeah Manu's a hall-of-famer, he's also like a tier 3 talent. You have the generational guys like Bron, Shaq, MJ. Then you have the superstars like KD, AD. Then maybe Manu's in the next group or the one after that.

                      Also Doncic is nowhere near as athletic as Manu was. I'm actually really not sure why those two are being compared other than being white internationals. They are literally nothing alike in game.

                      And if Phoenix thinks Ayton can be Shaq-like on O (I don't) then he should definitely go above a Manu-type (which Doncic isn't btw).
                      Manu is athletic? When did that happen? Manu had sneaky athleticism, but below average for an NBA wing.

                      Comment


                      • Barolt wrote: View Post
                        In the lottery, european players are less frequently busts in the last decade than college players.
                        You may be right, I don't know but do you think that's a factor in the decision process at the top of the draft?

                        Comment


                        • Apollo wrote: View Post
                          Here's one that I look are each year: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...o-my-computer/

                          He's saying:
                          1 Deandre Ayton
                          2 Marvin Bagley III
                          3 Jaren Jackson Jr.
                          4 Mohamed Bamba
                          5 Wendell Carter Jr.
                          6 Trae Young
                          7 Kevin Knox
                          8 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
                          9 Collin Sexton
                          10 Zhaire Smith

                          He doesn't get into why Doncic isn't in there. They skipped Euros and Porter Jr.
                          I don't like CARMELO as a projection system, because it defers to scouts rankings, which means it'll often just end up mirroring big boards, and is less a statistical model than it is an attempt to use statistics to correct minor issues in the rankings already out there.
                          twitter.com/anthonysmdoyle

                          Comment


                          • golden wrote: View Post
                            Manu is athletic? When did that happen? Manu had sneaky athleticism, but below average for an NBA wing.
                            I don't see Doncic flying under the rim and then throwing down on competition the level the Shaq & Kobe's Lakers. I don't see him doing that on anyone.

                            Comment


                            • Fran Fraschilla's "weird comparison" of Luka Doncic to Manu Ginobili......

                              ESPN’s expert talked about Luka Doncic’s athleticism, and also compared him to Gordon Hayward and Manu Ginobili: “This kid by NBA standards is not a great athlete. I’d say he’s average. But where he makes up for it is in his skill and in his IQ. My comparison for him is that he has the skill level of a Gordon Hayward and a body type of a Hayward and the mind of the Ginobili,” Fraschilla said. “Now, that’s pretty good. If that, in fact, is what he turns out to be he’s going to have a very successful career.”
                              Fraschilla has forgotten more about the draft than most of us will ever know.....

                              https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-new...-force-game-7/

                              Comment


                              • golden wrote: View Post
                                Fran Fraschilla's "weird comparison" of Luka Doncic to Manu Ginobili......



                                Fraschilla has forgotten more about the draft than most of us will ever know.....

                                https://www.eurohoops.net/en/nba-new...-force-game-7/
                                Are those two guys superstars? #1 guys on their team? Nope. Definitely stars. Kind of agrees with my take of Doncic. I love Manu but if he spent his career on the Hawks he wouldn't be going to the hall and he wouldn't be considered great.

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