Raptors starting line up

[DanH]

2 reasons I dont think theyll get over 60 and may not be included in predictions based on numbers. Chemistry. The old team was one of the longest core rosters including the coach. Also this year there will be a big target on this teams back. We got Kawhi other teams are going to want wipe the smirk off our faces.

I don't know. I think they have more returning minutes this year than last, with most of the starting lineup potentially intact, Kawhi fitting very well into DeMar's play style if need be, and basically the entire bench coming back whole instead of almost entirely brand new.

[DanH]

If you scroll into the comments on my piece, I do indeed add some playoff comparisons, which were... not friendly to DeMar.

I guess this is easier:

Also
I’m sure I don’t need to point this out to people, but the difference between the two becomes even more dramatic in the playoffs, where DeRozan has seen his regular season PER of 22.2 over the past three years drop to 15.3 (league average player level) in the playoffs, his TS% drop from 55% to 49%, and his WS/48 drop from .168 to .026.

While Leonard over his last three healthy seasons saw his regular season PER of 25.4 jump to 27.7 in the playoffs, his TS% rise from 60.1% to 62.4%, and his WS/48 jump from .251 to .258. Leonard is even better in the playoffs against top competition than in the regular season.

And that kind of obscures how good he’s been the past two seasons, as the first of the three was before his really exploding into the star he is now. If you just use Leonard’s last two full seasons, his PER jumps from 26.8 to 30.2 in the playoffs, his TS% rises from 61.3% to 64.0%, and his WS/48 increases from .270 to .295. Truly incredible numbers.

[raptors999]

2 reasons I dont think theyll get over 60 and may not be included in predictions based on numbers. Chemistry. The old team was one of the longest core rosters including the coach. Also this year there will be a big target on this teams back. We got Kawhi other teams are going to want wipe the smirk off our faces.

Reasons why Raptors may exceed past regular seasons are that conference rivals have not gotten better except maybe Boston and a few may have gotten worse and the younger players are in their third year which is usually when players become consistent. Even if Kawhi and Green contribute nothing, the gap in the conference is so big that its hard to see a step back.

[DanH]

Reasons why Raptors may exceed past regular seasons are that conference rivals have not gotten better except maybe Boston and a few may have gotten worse and the younger players are in their third year which is usually when players become consistent. Even if Kawhi and Green contribute nothing, the gap in the conference is so big that its hard to see a step back.

Based on the win projections I just put together, the East is very, very mediocre this year. 7 teams projected between 37 and 42 wins, 4 sub-30 win teams, and 4 49-59 win teams. Top tier, middle mush, bottom tier. No even spread this year. Not a single team in the 30-35 wins or 43-48 wins range.

[golden]

I guess this is easier:

Thx, Dan. Holy f-in shit, Kawhi is good. Can we just fast forward to the playoffs already?

[white men can't jump]

Wright is one of the best chips this team
has. Just get bebe back hes better back up C than ibaka. Next summer trade Lowry and extend wright if they can.
No one mentions the possibility but I think if theres a trade most likely guy will be green going.

Bebe is not a better backup C than Ibaka. Bebe has never even been a backup C because in 4 years he was always outplayed by the bigs ahead of him on the depth chart. He's been a free agent for a month and there has not been a peep about any team in the league being interested in him. I won't be mad if they bring him back, but I think it's a mistake and that it's time to move on.

Boucher will be given a chance, and hopefully earns a two-way deal. The other guy I and others keep throwing out there is Christian Wood.

Boucher looks more like a PF, and with Ibaka, Siakam and OG all likely to get minutes there, he isn't a great fit, but might as well let him develop on the 905 on a two-way deal, try to put some muscle on, and only use him if you need to. He has some range on his shot and is a good shotblocker. Could be a good modern PF if he develops right...shoot a bit, block shots, able to be a bit versatile on D.

Wood is built more like a PF/C. He is tall, long and athletic, and while he's skinny he has gotten stronger and looks like he could continue to add some muscle and not be totally outclassed at C. He has some offensive skills and he is also a good shotblocker. Wood might have some personality issues, but I don't mind taking a chance. Pretty low risk given our situation and could be very high reward. Could be the perfect storm of him realizing he needs to seize his next opportunity, and us having a good environment for him to grow in. He has a lot of potential, and he could be a natural successor to Serge's role as a guy who can back up JV, provide shooting and rim protection, and play next to JV when needed.

Summer options aren't so great. I doubt they trade Green because of the 2-way depth he adds. Miles and Powell are the most likely chips, and Powell has no value at the moment (I assume he'd be gone if he did). Miles has some but they may prefer the value he brings as a shooter over someone like a Kosta Koufos (who would barely play when JV and Ibaka are healthy). You can always just add a couple of young guys like Boucher and Wood, and make a trade during the season. A backup big is something you can usually find on the trade market, and the options might be better in the middle of the season.

But yeah, no thanks to Bebe. He had multiple chances over 4 years to earn something and didn't. Time to give other young guys a chance.

[Yuri Gagarin]

disagree. Ibaka as center we give o boards like crazy. Rather bebe any day. Ibaka flat out lost games for us vs cle

[DanH]

disagree. Ibaka as center we give o boards like crazy. Rather bebe any day. Ibaka flat out lost games for us vs cle

When the Raptors had Serge on the floor with none of JV, Bebe or Poeltl, the Raptors had a defensive rebound rate of 76.7%.

When the Raptors had Bebe on the floor with neither of JV or Poeltl, the Raptors had a defensive rebound rate of 75.1%.

That's... worse.

[white men can't jump]

disagree. Ibaka as center we give o boards like crazy. Rather bebe any day. Ibaka flat out lost games for us vs cle

Bahaha

You're using Ibaka's performance against Cleveland as a reason to re-sign Bebe? Now, the series was already lost, but Casey putting Bebe in during game 4 threw that game and the season away for us.

Just to add to what Dan posted about team rebounding, on an individual level Nogueira also measures out worse. Lower DREB% and total REB%, while not being in any way significantly better on the OREB%.

Of all the arguments to keep Bebe, rebounding is the worst possible one you could choose.

[blackjitsu]

disagree. Ibaka as center we give o boards like crazy. Rather bebe any day. Ibaka flat out lost games for us vs cle

I think you're alone with the idea Bebe is a better C than Serge. Statistically it's simply not true. I like Bebe as a player, wouldn't be upset if he came back, but moving Serge to backup C matches what the Raps do on the 905 and Summer League teams.

There's no team in the league that would pick Bebe over Serge at the 5, even with his rebounding.

[thead]

I've been doing some homework on Wood. How has he not cracked a rotation yet? Does the big stage get to him?

I like what I see though

[thead]

Actually I'm doing some time travelling. I think I liked Wood as one of our picks a few years back

[DanH]

Actually I'm doing some time travelling. I think I liked Wood as one of our picks a few years back

Yeah, he was a popular choice on the board.

[LJ2]

Which combination of bigs is going to be most successful next season?

JV/Serge
JV/Siakam
Serge/Siakam
Monroe/Serge
Monroe/Siakam
JV/Monroe - probably never going to see this combo

[DanH]

I would guess:

JV-Serge
Serge-Siakam
JV-Siakam
Monroe-Siakam

In that order. With a lot of OG at the 4 having more success than a lot or all of those.