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inthepaint wrote: View PostOne of the best, if not the best "passing lane" disturber on this team.I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.
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It's funny because everyone is worried about Kawhi's health but Danny Green is the one I'm most worried about. In his podcast he talks about still rehabbing and only doing light workouts throughout the summer so far. There is not that much time until training camp. I have a feeling he won't be 100% by then. Or at least really rusty because he didn't get to do his usual summer workouts with him rehabbing. Hopefully I'm wrong because last season was one of his worst seasons in a while and it's probably because he was secretly injured. I'm no doctor so maybe another month or so is enough for him to get back to 100% but I don't think so. We shall see.I relish negativity and disappointment. It is not healthy. Somebody buy me a pony.
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GLF wrote: View PostIt's funny because everyone is worried about Kawhi's health but Danny Green is the one I'm most worried about. In his podcast he talks about still rehabbing and only doing light workouts throughout the summer so far. There is not that much time until training camp. I have a feeling he won't be 100% by then. Or at least really rusty because he didn't get to do his usual summer workouts with him rehabbing. Hopefully I'm wrong because last season was one of his worst seasons in a while and it's probably because he was secretly injured. I'm no doctor so maybe another month or so is enough for him to get back to 100% but I don't think so. We shall see.
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https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/10/...-kawhi-leonard
Wrote a whole pile of words on potential rotations.
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Need to take Jacob Goldstein's lineup projection tool with a grain of salt.
Last year a lineup of CJ/Poeltl/Norm/Siakam/Fred had a net rating of -20.0 with an ORTG of 88.7
Plugging in the same guys into Goldstein's tool and I get a net rating of +3.6 with an ORTG of 112.5
Maybe the tool is broken today. 112.5 for those 5 guys doesn't seem right at all. Even if we subtract -3 from the total net rating.
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planetmars wrote: View PostNeed to take Jacob Goldstein's lineup projection tool with a grain of salt.
Last year a lineup of CJ/Poeltl/Norm/Siakam/Fred had a net rating of -20.0 with an ORTG of 88.7
Plugging in the same guys into Goldstein's tool and I get a net rating of +3.6 with an ORTG of 112.5
Maybe the tool is broken today. 112.5 for those 5 guys doesn't seem right at all. Even if we subtract -3 from the total.
Second, Goldstein's numbers are luck adjusted and would only even in theory hold up over large samples. That lineup played only 64 minutes. In that amount of time, getting lucky or unlucky on open threes falling or not would cause significant swings in the result. It often holds up anyway, but there will always be extremes for some lineups that might well not hold up in a bigger sample. I don't think there's any reason to think that 89 ORTG is a true measure of that lineup's offensive ability. That's an extreme result that would almost certainly regress towards the average.
Third, though this is less relevant, the tool doesn't take into account competition. So lineups, depending on who they play against, will do better or worse than projected the further their competition is from average.
Finally, yeah, absolutely take it with a grain of salt. Projections like this (and even team level win projections) are definitely very hard to do and will definitely not hold up 100%. The approach seems sound, as far as I can tell, but sometimes lineups just don't work. Sometimes they work way better than expected. That's why we have to try them, and over large samples, to really know. But setting some baseline expectations based purely on player efficiency, shot selection, a defensive impact still seems worthwhile - if those factors are showing one lineup is significantly better than another, might as well try the good one first.
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planetmars wrote: View PostNeed to take Jacob Goldstein's lineup projection tool with a grain of salt.
Last year a lineup of CJ/Poeltl/Norm/Siakam/Fred had a net rating of -20.0 with an ORTG of 88.7
Plugging in the same guys into Goldstein's tool and I get a net rating of +3.6 with an ORTG of 112.5
Maybe the tool is broken today. 112.5 for those 5 guys doesn't seem right at all. Even if we subtract -3 from the total net rating.
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DanH wrote: View Posthttps://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/10/...-kawhi-leonard
Wrote a whole pile of words on potential rotations.
Outstanding work Dan. This tool and your organized mind and thought processes have created what seems to be a very rational examination of the options. And are cause for some confidence in the season's outcome. In particular your comment that Nurse is going to have a lot of freedom to experiment, because the pieces are all so go is a slant I haven't seen anyone else come up with.
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Thought I'd throw this one out here. Below is a list of Raptor players who can guard each position, in order of size of the opponent. The combinations are staggering, as most of our roster can legitimately guard multiple positions, except for FVV, JV, Monroe & Miles. We can basically matchup with ANY lineup in the NBA: big, small and everything in between.
Center: JV, Monroe, Ibaka, Siakam
PF: Ibaka, Siakam, OG, Kawhi
SF: Siakam, OG, Kawhi, Miles, Powell, Wright, Green
SG: OG, Kawhi, Green, Powell, Wright, Lowry,
PG: OG, Kawhi, Green, Powell, Wright, Lowry, FVVLast edited by golden; Fri Aug 10, 2018, 03:44 PM.
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golden wrote: View PostThought I'd throw this one out here. Below is a list of Raptor players who can guard each position, in order of size of the opponent. The combinations are staggering, as most of our roster can legitimately guard multiple positions, except for FVV, JV, Monroe & Miles. We can basically matchup with ANY lineup in the NBA: big, small and everything in between.
Center: JV, Monroe, Ibaka, Siakam
PF: Ibaka, Siakam, OG, Kawhi
SF: Siakam, OG, Kawhi, Miles, Powell, Wright, Green
SG: OG, Kawhi, Green, Powell, Wright, Lowry,
PG: OG, Kawhi, Green, Powell, Wright, Lowry, FVV
- The number of those players who can not only guard, but guard *well*.
- How little deadweight there is on offence.
(Minor quibble: I'd say FVV can guard most 2s.)
IS IT PRESEASON YET"Stop eating your sushi."
"I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
"I've had three cups of green tea tonight. I'm wired. I'm absolutely wired."
- Jack Armstrong
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Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View PostExcept Casey actually has a mainly positive effect in the regular season.
His whole problem is not making good adjustments in the playoffs. As a regular season coach he's very good.
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