Predicting the Raptors' 2018-19 Win Total

[DanH]

So I've gone through my usual rigmarole trying to project win totals for the Raptors (and everyone else). Written up a full article over at Raps HQ, and if you want to read up on the process and assumptions that feed into this, it's there in detail, but I'll post all the results here.

https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/7/1...oronto-raptors

This year I've added another impact statistic to the ones I've used in the past (RPM, BPM), a new one called PIPM that I like a lot. As usual I'm also using Win Shares for the production side of things. This year because I have so many impact stats I'm weighing production and impact 50/50, and because I like PIPM so much I'm giving it a heavier weight than the other two impact stats. So the breakdown is 50% WS, 25% PIPM, 12.5% RPM, 12.5% BPM.

In any case, here's how the inputs from last year and the total contributions for this coming year work out for the Raptors:



And the resulting win totals:



And the league standings:



If you have any questions about the process, or any "what-ifs" (like, say, what if Kawhi just doesn't play at all, or what if the Kawhi trade wasn't made), I am happy to try to answer them.

Last year's thread, if interested:

https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/s...7-18-Win-Total

[golden]

Lol. Greg Monroe costing us a shot at 60 games. Nice work, Dan!

[inthepaint]

I like it. East and West actually don't look that unbalanced when you look at the win/losses at the end

[DanH]

Lol. Greg Monroe costing us a shot at 60 games. Nice work, Dan!

Actually, Monroe is decent enough on the boxscore side (WS, BPM) that he's almost neutral in spite of some bad APM data from last year skewing his RPM and PIPM down. Only drops us from 59.1 to 58.8 wins.

[LJ2]

Without going into the numbers it would seem realistic that with the additions of Kawhi, Green and now Monroe along with the removal of DeMar from the defence, that Casey leading this team should equate to more than 60 regular season wins...easily? I'm assuming your methodology doesn't account for coaching so the switch from Casey to Nurse isn't even a factor correct?

[inthepaint]

Without going into the numbers it would seem realistic that with the additions of Kawhi, Green and now Monroe along with the removal of DeMar from the defence, that Casey leading this team should equate to more than 60 regular season wins...easily? I'm assuming your methodology doesn't account for coaching so the switch from Casey to Nurse isn't even a factor correct?

Untangibles or not (eg coach change), 60 wins is never easy. Only 1 team out of 30 did that last year. Regular season wins should be secondary to Raps this year, much like it kinda was for Golden State or Cleveland in recent years (neither of which got 60 last year). Main goals should be

-Having guys healthy and rested in April
-Hit their stride as a team/unit right before the playoffs (like, chemistry, defined rotations, be ready for adjustments, proper solutions for matchup problems etc..)
-Get home court over Boston

If they do that, arbitrary "landmarks" like 50, 55 or 60 wins won't mean anything imo.

[inthepaint]

Minor question, kinda geeky : Is WS itself used as an input to calculate PIPM?

[Puffer]

Five games between the Raptors and Boston seems about right, all things considered.

Now a question for Dan. Do the individual stats for players get affected by which conference they play i? If the western conference is tougher, and a player spends 2/3 of his time playing against WC teams, does it affect his impact numbers? So when Kawhi and Danny switch confernces should their impact numbers be adjusted?

[Puffer]

Thaks again for what you do on the board Dan. It definitely starts some great convo's going and I think it elevates most of the discussions, except when you, you know, start slagging guys and throwing insults.

[DanH]

Minor question, kinda geeky : Is WS itself used as an input to calculate PIPM?

I don't believe so, but I do believe there are some individual box score inputs into PIPM, though less so than with RPM or BPM.

[DanH]

Five games between the Raptors and Boston seems about right, all things considered.

Now a question for Dan. Do the individual stats for players get affected by which conference they play i? If the western conference is tougher, and a player spends 2/3 of his time playing against WC teams, does it affect his impact numbers? So when Kawhi and Danny switch confernces should their impact numbers be adjusted?

In theory, impact stats like PIPM, which feed off of adjusted plus minus data, should have that impact of a better conference around them reduced, because adjusting for quality of opposition is the whole point of adjusted plus minus data. BPM, and to a lesser extent, RPM, are heavily influenced by raw boxscore stats, meaning playing against lesser opposition more often could see those numbers increase - same goes for production numbers like WS (obviously).

But I definitely don't have a good feel for the magnitude of the difference. For example, the predicted win totals in this piece average 40 wins for East teams and 42 wins for West teams. So that makes the West, generally speaking, 5% harder to play in, at a rough guess. So maybe increase each player's numbers by 5% at the absolute most? On the scale of the team, wouldn't mean much, I don't think. But a good question.

[DanH]

Without going into the numbers it would seem realistic that with the additions of Kawhi, Green and now Monroe along with the removal of DeMar from the defence, that Casey leading this team should equate to more than 60 regular season wins...easily? I'm assuming your methodology doesn't account for coaching so the switch from Casey to Nurse isn't even a factor correct?

Yeah, no coach considerations at all. It's basically impossible to quantify coaching impacts - people have tried.

A lot of it has to do with minute considerations. With the current roster and the hands-off process I use, our stars are actually projected to play even fewer minutes this year than last. Like Lowry will play 100 fewer minutes. Same goes for JV.

[Kuh]

I guess you don't use WP as well as WS? I like the fact that it looks at efficiency of shooting, rather than just points.

Comparing them briefly, we have:
- players who do much better: Lowry (.261), Valanciunas (.273), Delon (.250), Kawhi (.305), Monroe (.249)
- players who do about the same: Van Vleet (.165), Anunoby (.118), Siakam (.112), Green (.103)
- players who do much worse: Ibaka (.052), CJ (.047), Powell (-.011)

Doing very rough math, that looks like:
- around 35% better on players contributing 37 wins, i.e., +13 wins
- 50% worse on players contributing 9 wins, i.e., -5 wins

So WP would predict a win total of somewhere around 66 wins. That assumes we get healthy Kawhi.

[DanH]

I guess you don't use WP as well as WS? I like the fact that it looks at efficiency of shooting, rather than just points.

Comparing them briefly, we have:
- players who do much better: Lowry (.261), Valanciunas (.273), Delon (.250), Kawhi (.305), Monroe (.249)
- players who do about the same: Van Vleet (.165), Anunoby (.118), Siakam (.112), Green (.103)
- players who do much worse: Ibaka (.052), CJ (.047), Powell (-.011)

Doing very rough math, that looks like:
- around 35% better on players contributing 37 wins, i.e., +13 wins
- 50% worse on players contributing 9 wins, i.e., -5 wins

So WP would predict a win total of somewhere around 66 wins. That assumes we get healthy Kawhi.

Wins produced is heavily flawed (IMO) in the way it treats rebounding and counts possessions.

Win shares also uses efficiency in it's calculation, just in a less obvious way.

[LJ2]

Untangibles or not (eg coach change), 60 wins is never easy. Only 1 team out of 30 did that last year. Regular season wins should be secondary to Raps this year, much like it kinda was for Golden State or Cleveland in recent years (neither of which got 60 last year). Main goals should be

-Having guys healthy and rested in April
-Hit their stride as a team/unit right before the playoffs (like, chemistry, defined rotations, be ready for adjustments, proper solutions for matchup problems etc..)
-Get home court over Boston

If they do that, arbitrary "landmarks" like 50, 55 or 60 wins won't mean anything imo.

Well that's like saying what DanH has posted is arbitrary because it has nothing to do with the playoffs. Take the thread down because we're just here for the playoffs.