So I've gone through my usual rigmarole trying to project win totals for the Raptors (and everyone else). Written up a full article over at Raps HQ, and if you want to read up on the process and assumptions that feed into this, it's there in detail, but I'll post all the results here.
https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/7/1...oronto-raptors
This year I've added another impact statistic to the ones I've used in the past (RPM, BPM), a new one called PIPM that I like a lot. As usual I'm also using Win Shares for the production side of things. This year because I have so many impact stats I'm weighing production and impact 50/50, and because I like PIPM so much I'm giving it a heavier weight than the other two impact stats. So the breakdown is 50% WS, 25% PIPM, 12.5% RPM, 12.5% BPM.
In any case, here's how the inputs from last year and the total contributions for this coming year work out for the Raptors:
And the resulting win totals:
And the league standings:
If you have any questions about the process, or any "what-ifs" (like, say, what if Kawhi just doesn't play at all, or what if the Kawhi trade wasn't made), I am happy to try to answer them.
Last year's thread, if interested:
https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/s...7-18-Win-Total
https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/7/1...oronto-raptors
This year I've added another impact statistic to the ones I've used in the past (RPM, BPM), a new one called PIPM that I like a lot. As usual I'm also using Win Shares for the production side of things. This year because I have so many impact stats I'm weighing production and impact 50/50, and because I like PIPM so much I'm giving it a heavier weight than the other two impact stats. So the breakdown is 50% WS, 25% PIPM, 12.5% RPM, 12.5% BPM.
In any case, here's how the inputs from last year and the total contributions for this coming year work out for the Raptors:
And the resulting win totals:
And the league standings:
If you have any questions about the process, or any "what-ifs" (like, say, what if Kawhi just doesn't play at all, or what if the Kawhi trade wasn't made), I am happy to try to answer them.
Last year's thread, if interested:
https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/s...7-18-Win-Total
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