Likes Likes:  16
Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 1 2
Results 21 to 36 of 36

Thread: Predicting the Raptors' 2018-19 Win Total

  1. #21
    Raptors Republic Veteran MixxAOR's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2013
    Posts
    9,714
    Likes (Given)
    1426
    Likes (Received)
    2555

    Default



    hype
    First Team All Nonsense

  2. #22
    Raptors Republic Starter inthepaint's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    386
    Likes (Given)
    301
    Likes (Received)
    213

    Default

    Quote LJ2 wrote: View Post
    Well that's like saying what DanH has posted is arbitrary because it has nothing to do with the playoffs. Take the thread down because we're just here for the playoffs.
    No, that's not like saying that at all. What I said has little to do with the OP actually. The original post is not arbitrary, is the opposite of it (it takes advanced stats to project wins). That's neat.

    What I meant is simply that there are more important things than reaching certain "round" numbers of wins (like 50, 55 or 60), including having the team injury- free, rested, and well oiled for the playoffs.

    Like, for example we shouldn'tt expose our key guys with heavy minutes on game 82 when seeding is already decided and we're at 59 wins, just because we arbitrarily want a milestone 60 (we kinda did that for FVV last year, and lost him for the playoffs).

    Regular season wins are important to determine home court, which like I mentioned, we should try to get against Boston. They just don't need to be a "round" 60 for that.

  3. #23
    Raptors Republic Veteran Hotshot's Avatar
    Join Date
    Oct 2009
    Posts
    7,057
    Likes (Given)
    632
    Likes (Received)
    1034

    Default

    Anywhere from 54-64 wins. I expect some hiccups.

    The most important thing is I fully expect this team to be the best Rap team ever in the playoffs.

  4. #24
    Raptors Republic Starter inthepaint's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    386
    Likes (Given)
    301
    Likes (Received)
    213

    Default

    Quote Puffer wrote: View Post
    Except that it is those arbitrary landmarks that determine seeding and THAT should have an impact on how your playoffs proceed. Of course,. it hasn't always in the Raptors case in the past. But the team should have fixed that now.
    Sure. What I meant was striving for a "round" milestone number of wins (eg 55, 60) is arbitrary and, albeit nice, shouldn't be the priority

    Striving for being a higher seed than Boston is a totally different thing. It will give you homecourt, which is important. That can come in the form of 58, 61 or 64 wins though. Won't matter, as long as we are:

    -Having guys healthy and rested in April
    -Hit their stride as a team/unit right before the playoffs
    -Getting home court over Boston

    The key is to try to do that without unnecessarily exposing our guys to heavy minutes and risk of injury, on game 82 with seeding decided, just because we want 60 wins instead of 59.

  5. #25
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer DanH's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    13,979
    Likes (Given)
    4498
    Likes (Received)
    8470

    Default

    Quote Maury wrote: View Post
    The pictures posted aren’t loading on Tapatalk
    Can always go visit RapsHQ!

    Sorry, no idea how to fix the pictures.

  6. #26
    Raptors Republic Superstar Maury's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    Vancouver
    Posts
    2,839
    Likes (Given)
    197
    Likes (Received)
    681

    Default

    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Can always go visit RapsHQ!

    Sorry, no idea how to fix the pictures.
    Just finished the article Dan. Very well written and equally as informative. Nice job.

  7. #27
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer DanH's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    13,979
    Likes (Given)
    4498
    Likes (Received)
    8470

    Default

    Quote Maury wrote: View Post
    Just finished the article Dan. Very well written and equally as informative. Nice job.
    Glad you liked it. Funny, the pictures didn't show up for a couple people on another forum too. Oh well.

  8. #28
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    347
    Likes (Given)
    162
    Likes (Received)
    94

    Default

    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    Wins produced is heavily flawed (IMO) in the way it treats rebounding and counts possessions.

    Win shares also uses efficiency in it's calculation, just in a less obvious way.
    Let's see if the Raps finish up with closer to 58 or 66 wins. Maybe that will settle it.

  9. Likes DanH liked this post
  10. #29
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer DanH's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Cambridge, ON
    Posts
    13,979
    Likes (Given)
    4498
    Likes (Received)
    8470

    Default

    Quote Kuh wrote: View Post
    Let's see if the Raps finish up with closer to 58 or 66 wins. Maybe that will settle it.
    Well, I'm rooting for 66. But I don't think a single team projection settles anything.

    I'm not questioning the projectability of the stat, even. I don't like the construction of the statistic, so I don't use it.

  11. #30
    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    4,438
    Likes (Given)
    3764
    Likes (Received)
    1301

    Default

    All of the tools used to predict win totals only look at players stats. There is nothing looking at coaching impact. Casey may have been a great development coach, but there is not much development needed this year. Those seeds have been sown and the Raptors are reaping the benefits. Casey also not a good in game coach. And many of use still have recovering bald patches from ripping our hair out at boneheaded moves and rotations he made. I expect more from Nurse. I think the team could win 3-5 more games just from that. I don't think Nurse's lack of experience costs them anything because he has years of experience as a head coach in other leagues and years of experience in the NBA.

    The addition of Kawhi and Green to replace DeMar and Jakob is a net gain which can more than compensate for other eastern conference team improvements based on the growth of their starters or reintroduction of injured players (Boston). The Raptors are significantly better talent wise and Nurse is a step up in my opinion.

    I don't see how they can't win 62-65 games.

  12. Likes S.R. liked this post
  13. #31
    Raptors Republic Superstar LJ2's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2015
    Posts
    2,549
    Likes (Given)
    717
    Likes (Received)
    405

    Default

    I don't see any reason why this team shouldn't win 60+ games if they are healthy and Kawhi is playing.

  14. Likes DanH, ReubenJRD liked this post
  15. #32
    Raptors Republic Veteran S.R.'s Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Posts
    5,659
    Likes (Given)
    3142
    Likes (Received)
    3877

    Default

    Quote Puffer wrote: View Post
    All of the tools used to predict win totals only look at players stats. There is nothing looking at coaching impact. Casey may have been a great development coach, but there is not much development needed this year. Those seeds have been sown and the Raptors are reaping the benefits. Casey also not a good in game coach. And many of use still have recovering bald patches from ripping our hair out at boneheaded moves and rotations he made. I expect more from Nurse. I think the team could win 3-5 more games just from that. I don't think Nurse's lack of experience costs them anything because he has years of experience as a head coach in other leagues and years of experience in the NBA.

    The addition of Kawhi and Green to replace DeMar and Jakob is a net gain which can more than compensate for other eastern conference team improvements based on the growth of their starters or reintroduction of injured players (Boston). The Raptors are significantly better talent wise and Nurse is a step up in my opinion.

    I don't see how they can't win 62-65 games.
    Quote LJ2 wrote: View Post
    I don't see any reason why this team shouldn't win 60+ games if they are healthy and Kawhi is playing.
    These are the only two real variables - overall health and does Kawhi perform like he did a year ago.

    If the answers to those are yes, then factors like Nurse fiddling with lineups and his playbook, or him getting to know Kawhi (he 's been coaching the rest of the team for years already) are minor factors. You can play around and have a learning curve on that level while still winning games.

    Hell, similar issues were there to start last season. An entirely new, untested bench meant people thought the Raptors would drop off from the season before. And they overhauled the offence. But the team rolled to 59 wins and their depth of talent meant the starters didn't even play 4th quarters some nights.

    It's the NBA, talent wins games. The team will have some breathing room to play around with things.
    John Hancock

  16. #33
    Raptors Republic Starter inthepaint's Avatar
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Posts
    386
    Likes (Given)
    301
    Likes (Received)
    213

    Default

    I don't think this will happen (and sure hope it doesn't), but just to play devils advocate for a sec here:

    --Could one or two players that had solid/borderline breakout seasons last year (OG, FVV, Delon, Siakam, JV), have a drop-off year?
    In other words, will they all repeat or exceed what they did last year? The most likely answer is "there's no reason to believe they won't" (that would be my answer and what I hope), but then again, after seeing what happened with Norm within a year, it's unfortunately not impossible.

    --A huge reason why the raps exceeded most expectations in the regular season and got to 59 was the surprisingly good "bench mob" production. That unit flat-out bailed out the starters and won us games several times. That unit will no longer have Poeltl, and may inherit 1 or 2 of Ibaka, Monroe, Green or OG. In fact, the "bench mob" as we know may not exist anymore under Nurse, who may get back to a more traditional staggering of players rather then coming in with a 5-man unit fresh and rested off the bench with a lot of speed, for spurts in the game. Whatever he does will be for the best with the new pieces he has, no doubt - but will the same effect be achieved? I personally think yes, but that's a variable.

    --The coach is new, and a rookie. Right now we're rightly giving him the benefit of the doubt, and I do believe based on his experience, and the offence he implemented last year, he will be a better playoff coach then Casey, no doubt. But to get 60 wins, he will have to sustain/improve upon Casey's COTY regular season campaign from last year. I think most likely he will, but I don't think it's a given.

    I think at the end of the day it's very possible we'll get to 60 if there are no injuries, but I also think Nurse will use a chunk of the regular season as a lab for the playoffs, which may cost us W's. He will strive to keep pace with Boston though, and get home court over them. I personally think the season will end with both Raps and Boston on mid to high 50's, but with us ahead of them.

  17. #34
    Raptors Republic Starter
    Join Date
    Jul 2010
    Posts
    347
    Likes (Given)
    162
    Likes (Received)
    94

    Default

    Quote inthepaint wrote: View Post
    --The coach is new, and a rookie. Right now we're rightly giving him the benefit of the doubt, and I do believe based on his experience, and the offence he implemented last year, he will be a better playoff coach then Casey, no doubt. But to get 60 wins, he will have to sustain/improve upon Casey's COTY regular season campaign from last year. I think most likely he will, but I don't think it's a given.
    This is probably the factor that concerns me the most.

    Coaching is both about the in-game decisions, which I think we all agree that Nurse will do better, and the building a cohesive team spirit, which is the thing that Casey did so well that we now take for granted.

    We have risk factors here, between Lowry's past, Kawhi's past year and the way Demar left. Let's cross our fingers and trust in ... Nurse?

  18. #35
    Raptors Republic Superstar ReubenJRD's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2010
    Posts
    4,212
    Likes (Given)
    702
    Likes (Received)
    169

    Default

    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    So I've gone through my usual rigmarole trying to project win totals for the Raptors (and everyone else). Written up a full article over at Raps HQ, and if you want to read up on the process and assumptions that feed into this, it's there in detail, but I'll post all the results here.

    https://www.raptorshq.com/2018/8/7/1...oronto-raptors

    This year I've added another impact statistic to the ones I've used in the past (RPM, BPM), a new one called PIPM that I like a lot. As usual I'm also using Win Shares for the production side of things. This year because I have so many impact stats I'm weighing production and impact 50/50, and because I like PIPM so much I'm giving it a heavier weight than the other two impact stats. So the breakdown is 50% WS, 25% PIPM, 12.5% RPM, 12.5% BPM.

    In any case, here's how the inputs from last year and the total contributions for this coming year work out for the Raptors:



    And the resulting win totals:



    And the league standings:



    If you have any questions about the process, or any "what-ifs" (like, say, what if Kawhi just doesn't play at all, or what if the Kawhi trade wasn't made), I am happy to try to answer them.

    Last year's thread, if interested:

    https://forums.raptorsrepublic.com/s...7-18-Win-Total
    Beautifully written. Was shared on another group page and managed to read it. Seriously, great work.
    Twitter: @ReubenJRD • NBA, Raptors writer for Daily Hive Vancouver, Toronto.

  19. Likes DanH liked this post
  20. #36
    Raptors Republic Superstar Puffer's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Posts
    4,438
    Likes (Given)
    3764
    Likes (Received)
    1301

    Default

    Dan's outdoing himself this year.

Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 1 2

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •