2018-19 Trade Rumours and Discussion - Deadline February 7th 2019

[planetmars]

Sure it does. It beats it easily.

Not only is Middleton a free agent this summer, so is Brogdon. So the two best players in this proposed deal, you get for... about two and a half months. Then you get a mediocre big and an average veteran. Maybe Milwaukee can add some first-round picks, which will be mediocre as well. Maybe they can add Eric Bledsoe, except whoops he's a free agent this summer too.

Milwaukee always planned to maximize as much cap space as possible this coming summer and now they don't have good longterm assets to make a serious bid for Davis. Compare their shitty bid to:

1. another year of Ibaka, who can be flipped for more picks and prospects
2. Siakam, who will be an RFA summer after next so you can lock him down for four years
3. OG, who's still got three years on his rookie deal
4. Delon, who's an RFA
5. Norm, who's got two years left on an increasingly reasonable-looking deal
6. Fred, two years left on a good deal

The Raptors' assets are far superior to anything Milwaukee can offer. Really, our only serious competition for AD is Denver, and the possibility that the Pellies wait until the summer for the godfather offer from Boston.

First Brogdon is an RFA as well.

Middleton is a free agent, but NO would get his bird rights, and specifically with Middleton he's not a type of guy that would probably get too many offers in the summer. But even if he did.. I could imagine NO would give him a max if he wanted it. Yeah sure it's a risk.. but they might take that gamble.

Middleton is better than Serge.

And we all love Siakam but perhaps The Pellies would like Brogdon more.. I mean he was a ROY.

OG, Delon and Norm are not that great. I mean OG has potential but he's regressed this year. Delon hasn't been great as a backup guard either. Norm has been better than last year.. but his contract may not be something that's appealing to be honest. He's getting paid more than a mid-level contract. Yet he's like our 9th or 10th best player.

Personally it comes down to what the Pelicans think of Brogdon over Siakam and if they would risk taking a chance on a UFA like Middleton over a guy like Serge as he's 2 years younger (well on paper).

[golden]

First Brogdon is an RFA as well.

Middleton is a free agent, but NO would get his bird rights, and specifically with Middleton he's not a type of guy that would probably get too many offers in the summer. But even if he did.. I could imagine NO would give him a max if he wanted it. Yeah sure it's a risk.. but they might take that gamble.

Middleton is better than Serge.

And we all love Siakam but perhaps The Pellies would like Brogdon more.. I mean he was a ROY.

OG, Delon and Norm are not that great. I mean OG has potential but he's regressed this year. Delon hasn't been great as a backup guard either. Norm has been better than last year.. but his contract may not be something that's appealing to be honest. He's getting paid more than a mid-level contract. Yet he's like our 9th or 10th best player.

Personally it comes down to what the Pelicans think of Brogdon over Siakam and if they would risk taking a chance on a UFA like Middleton over a guy like Serge as he's 2 years younger (well on paper).

Even if Middleton has a slight talent advantage, if I'm the Pels and in a rebuild, I'd rather have the flexibility of Serge's expiring contract next year with a guy coming off a career year, rather than have to commit, say 4 years, to a 28-year old Middleton.

Siakam vs. Brodgon is a no-brainer. Absolutely love Brogdon, but he's already 26 and he's absolutely reached his ceiling. The big jump this year hints that he could be another one of Bud's fool's gold system players (like Carroll and Teague). Whereas Siakam is the exact opposite - he thrives in chaos under any system and appears to be just scratching he surface of his potential. He's a truly unique player in the NBA and he impacts winning. Contract-wise, I would be scared to commit long-term capspace to a guy like Brogdon - you'd be buying really high. The cherry is that Siakam is still on his rookie contract for another 2 years.

OG's regression is explainable: he got bumped out of the starting lineup by Kawhi and Green and has been forced to become a creator on the second unit. However, OG does have undeniable All-NBA defensive team potential, and that's elite upside you can't say about any of the Bucks players. He's on a rookie contract for 3 more years and that's really attractive.

You really need to factor in the contract situations when evaluating the bids. Do the Pels want to lock in long-term with mediocre players from the Bucks, or do they want the flexibility and upside of younger players and expiring contracts of very useful vets from the Raps. Only Dell Demps knows.....

[Raptor Jesus]

Milwaukee is playing at this contender-ish, they got zero assets;

Absolutely buy into the Bucks making a call to the Pelicans. Twenty-eight other teams are doing the same. But Milwaukee doesn't begin to register as a realistic landing spot.

It remains to be seen whether the Pelicans will prioritize high-end picks and prospects or established impact players as centerpieces in any deal. For the Bucks' purposes, it doesn't matter. They won't meet the threshold of either requirement.

They cannot deal a first-round pick before 2023, and with the protections on their other commitments, it'll be more like 2024. Sterling Brown, Thon Maker, Donte DiVincenzo and D.J. Wilson are nice throw-ins, but they're not anchoring a superstar return.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-rumors#slide3

not tryin to steal this, its the point I think many of us are making. The Bucks have zero in the way of real long term talent to offer and the pick situation is a joke.

[golden]

Milwaukee is playing at this contender-ish, they got zero assets;



https://bleacherreport.com/articles/...-rumors#slide3

not tryin to steal this, its the point I think many of us are making. The Bucks have zero in the way of real long term talent to offer and the pick situation is a joke.

It's been nice to think about AD on the Raps, but Dell Demps should be fired if he doesn't wait to see what the Celtics offer, and who is drafting Zion.

[slaw]

It's been nice to think about AD on the Raps, but Dell Demps should be fired if he doesn't wait to see what the Celtics offer, and who is drafting Zion.

Not sure what the benefit to NO is to dealing Davis during this season. Maybe the opportunities or packages aren't any better this offseason but maybe they are and I'd be willing to take that bet cause there isn't really any downside for them.

[DanH]

Not sure what the benefit to NO is to dealing Davis during this season. Maybe the opportunities or packages aren't any better this offseason but maybe they are and I'd be willing to take that bet cause there isn't really any downside for them.

In theory, the offers should be better for two years of AD than for one year of AD. With only one season, any team request from AD would carry a lot more weight and scare off more potential partners. And who knows what happens with Boston between now and then? If the offers drop off enough from other teams, Boston may not need to make the godfather offer we're assuming they're going to make. And what if Kyrie bolts next summer? Suddenly it looks like a bad idea for Boston to pay through the nose for an AD rental to play by himself and potentially bolt the following summer.

And if anything happens to the Boston offer, then the entire market is back where it is now, except every team has one less year of AD guaranteed to them if they make the move. Even LA has wasted a year of LeBron's remaining elite play by not grabbing AD earlier, which may decrease their bid.

Yes, they may get the best possible offers in the summer. But it's not at all guaranteed to be the case, and there is actually some real risk to them waiting rather than taking the best offer now.

[slaw]

In theory, the offers should be better for two years of AD than for one year of AD. With only one season, any team request from AD would carry a lot more weight and scare off more potential partners. And who knows what happens with Boston between now and then? If the offers drop off enough from other teams, Boston may not need to make the godfather offer we're assuming they're going to make. And what if Kyrie bolts next summer? Suddenly it looks like a bad idea for Boston to pay through the nose for an AD rental to play by himself and potentially bolt the following summer.

And if anything happens to the Boston offer, then the entire market is back where it is now, except every team has one less year of AD guaranteed to them if they make the move. Even LA has wasted a year of LeBron's remaining elite play by not grabbing AD earlier, which may decrease their bid.

Yes, they may get the best possible offers in the summer. But it's not at all guaranteed to be the case, and there is actually some real risk to them waiting rather than taking the best offer now.

In fairness, I suppose no one really knows what the actual offers are right now and the lapse of time always brings uncertainty, so perhaps they are getting a materially better offer now than this summer. Having said that, the market for these kinds of trades is pretty well established with the George, Butler and Kawhi deals, so you have a pretty good idea of what the value will look like at the end of the day in any case.

[DanH]

In fairness, I suppose no one really knows what the actual offers are right now and the lapse of time always brings uncertainty, so perhaps they are getting a materially better offer now than this summer. Having said that, the market for these kinds of trades is pretty well established with the George, Butler and Kawhi deals, so you have a pretty good idea of what the value will look like at the end of the day in any case.

Every one of those guys got traded with one season remaining. The whole point of trading AD now is that his value might well be much better precisely because they are avoiding that scenario.

[slaw]

Every one of those guys got traded with one season remaining. The whole point of trading AD now is that his value might well be much better precisely because they are avoiding that scenario.

Right, but you're not getting two full years, you're getting like 20+ games - assuming he's not injured. You've also taken out the potential mix of suitors an unknown number of teams who might not be able to do the trade now for a variety of reasons but might be able to do it in the offseason. Look, maybe some team is desperate right now but absent that it strikes me that a February deal won't look materially different from a July deal. Again, we don't know what the present offers look like but there's a pretty small group of teams, in my opinion, that will overpay for those 20+ games and, even then, it needs to be a fit with what NO wants and who knows what that is....

[KeonClark]

Right, but you're not getting two full years, you're getting like 20+ games - assuming he's not injured. You've also taken out the potential mix of suitors an unknown number of teams who might not be able to do the trade now for a variety of reasons but might be able to do it in the offseason. Look, maybe some team is desperate right now but absent that it strikes me that a February deal won't look materially different from a July deal. Again, we don't know what the present offers look like but there's a pretty small group of teams, in my opinion, that will overpay for those 20+ games and, even then, it needs to be a fit with what NO wants and who knows what that is....

It's not just 20 plus games , that's the regular season. It's two playoff drives, two cracks at beating golden state and raising a banner. And that's what teams like Portland Toronto Denver and Milwaukee are salivating over, THIS YEAR

[magoon]

First Brogdon is an RFA as well.

Middleton is a free agent, but NO would get his bird rights, and specifically with Middleton he's not a type of guy that would probably get too many offers in the summer. But even if he did.. I could imagine NO would give him a max if he wanted it. Yeah sure it's a risk.. but they might take that gamble.

Middleton is better than Serge.

And we all love Siakam but perhaps The Pellies would like Brogdon more.. I mean he was a ROY.

OG, Delon and Norm are not that great. I mean OG has potential but he's regressed this year. Delon hasn't been great as a backup guard either. Norm has been better than last year.. but his contract may not be something that's appealing to be honest. He's getting paid more than a mid-level contract. Yet he's like our 9th or 10th best player.

Personally it comes down to what the Pelicans think of Brogdon over Siakam and if they would risk taking a chance on a UFA like Middleton over a guy like Serge as he's 2 years younger (well on paper).

What you're missing here is that the Pellies don't want to be good next year. They're actively trying to sell every good player they have because without Davis they aren't a playoff team in the West, and if you're not a playoff team - like, not even a marginal one - then you want to be a team that uses games to develop young talent. Middleton and Brogdon are good players, but they're not getting you a playoff seed in the West. If they're your best players, then you're on the treadmill.

Besides, Middleton knows the Pellies aren't going to make playoffs next year, so why on earth would he stay? He's going to get $20m+ a year somewhere (Dallas is the most obvious landing spot, I think, if Milwaukee doesn't shell out to keep him), so New Orleans can't really even do the "throw money at him to stay" trick - not that they want to. Brogdon isn't as good as Jrue Holiday, who they are actively trying to trade for prospects and picks, just like they're trying to trade Mirotic and Moore and Randle and everybody else, so why would they want Brogdon exactly?

Siakam makes sense as tradebait because he's a very good player already with the potential to be better - nobody's sure if Siakam can become an alpha dog because right now he's a complimentary player, the third-best player on a contending team. But he's shown flashes that maybe he can be. New Orleans might do the "maybe this is like when Indiana got Oladipo for PG13" reasoning, and hope that Siakam can become a franchise guy if you give him the chance to run with it. (Certainly that was our original plan if Kawhi leaves in the summer.)

[chris]

question posed by howard beck to zach lowe and brian windhorst on lowe's podcast a couple days ago, to which neither of them had the answer on the spot... are we in the same boat as the celtics? is kawhi on the same designated rookie extension as kyrie? are the last 20 pages of chatter in this thread all a moot point?

i did a quick google search but don't have time to dig into it too much at work.

[LJ2]

It's not just 20 plus games , that's the regular season. It's two playoff drives, two cracks at beating golden state and raising a banner. And that's what teams like Portland Toronto Denver and Milwaukee are salivating over, THIS YEAR

Playing devils advocate here, but why would NO want to narrow their trade suitors to contending teams that think AD will put them over the top to come out of their conference? If they are rebuilding they'll want the type of assets not playoff team or Boston can offer. Like Slaw said nobody knows what NO wants, but I'd assume the more options the better?

[slaw]

Playing devils advocate here, but why would NO want to narrow their trade suitors to contending teams that think AD will put them over the top to come out of their conference? If they are rebuilding they'll want the type of assets not playoff team or Boston can offer. Like Slaw said nobody knows what NO wants, but I'd assume the more options the better?

That's the thing: the teams really valuing AD enough to give NO a material overpay this year is small and those teams may not be a fit for NO. Now, maybe one of those teams blows the Pelicans away with an offer they can't refuse (or someone else does like LA) but I don't know....

[KeonClark]

Playing devils advocate here, but why would NO want to narrow their trade suitors to contending teams that think AD will put them over the top to come out of their conference? If they are rebuilding they'll want the type of assets not playoff team or Boston can offer. Like Slaw said nobody knows what NO wants, but I'd assume the more options the better?

Of course they'll take the best package available. Non playoff teams in smallish markets seem to be staying out though for obvious reasons.