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View Poll Results: Are you content with last season production for Demar's new salary?

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  • More money, more production

    4 44.44%
  • Was worth the money last season, so repeat that

    5 55.56%
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Thread: Everything Demar Derozan

  1. #22441
    Raptors Republic Veteran planetmars's Avatar
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    Defensively I didn't like FVV's matchup. Should have had someone bigger like OG out there. I think if they made that switch they would have won without going to OT. Casey has a crush on FVV though.

  2. #22442
    Raptors Republic Veteran JimiCliff's Avatar
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    Quote Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Except this is wrong in multiple ways.

    1. Basketball players don't stay the same year over year, they typically improve over their first 3-5 years in the league. This is more pronounced for players who start at age 19 as they are still growing into their bodies and don't have the same amount of experience as college players who stayed through their junior or senior years.

    2. Jimmy Butler started at age 22, so he had a headstart on DeMar, but even then he didn't perform at the same level all seven years. He gradually improved over his first four years. His third year he shot only 52.2% TS (28% from 3), and had only an 11% assist rate. His following season he improved to 58% and 14%, respectively, and his fifth season he improved his playmaking to raise his assist rate to 21%.

    3. Dion Waiters has never cleared 50.8% TS and has a career average of 49.1%TS. DeMar's first five years he only went below 52% once and averaged 52.6%. Not great, but much better than Waiters. Note also that DeMar produced 21.5 win shares over that time frame, while in six seasons Waiters has only produced 7.4.

    4. DeMar has actually played 8 full seasons in the NBA. So if you want to shift gears after year 5, you need to look at his last three years. Over the past three full seasons he put up 24/5/4 on 54.1%TS. That was good for 27th in the NBA in win shares, while Thaddeus Young was 104th.

    It's a pretty backhanded compliment to say that DeMar played like Waiters and Young for "7" years, and is suddenly playing amazing this year. His assists are not WAY up, his assist percentage increased from 20.6% to 23.8%. In fact, over the four years prior to this one, DeMar had a 19.4% assist rate, while Butler had an 18.1% assist rate. Including this year it's 19.9% to 18.5% for DeMar.

    DeMar has been passing the ball and making plays for four solid years. He's taking it to another level this year, but to dismiss the last four years of very good play by comparing him to Waiters and Young is to say: "Maybe I was wrong, but not really."
    At this point, I'd say it's pretty clear that they're intentionally trolling for traffic. Best way to fight them is to stop clicking.
    "Stop eating your sushi."
    "I do actually have a pair of Uggs."
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  3. #22443
    Raptors Republic Veteran S.R.'s Avatar
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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    I don't have a problem going ISO late in games if your star can get buckets. The argument in the past has always been the Raptors scorers aren't good enough to follow a blueprint that teams with Lebron/Curry/Durant etc. use. This changes a bit if DeMar elevates his game to a legit top 10 player in the league, especially at the offensive end. Personally I still prefer team play, but this is pretty good:




    The bigger weakness recently continues to be the defence. The offence is putting up points but the D needs to get more crunch time stops in a game like last night's.
    Quote DanH wrote: View Post
    I definitely still have an issue with the ISO. As amazing as DeMar is, he's so much better when you set a screen for him first. Whether that lets him attack a moving defence, attack a mismatch, or draw a double to leverage his much-improved passing, it's better than letting the defence decide when and where to send help on an isolation. And even if DeMar's shot quality is no better in that scenario, it still moves the defence so that guys have a shot at an offensive board.

    Crunch time defence is important, but ultimately it will come down to the opponent missing shots. Even if you make them take the shots you want, they can still get hot. But so long as you execute an offence properly, you should still have a good shot to win even if the opposition hits tough shots. Not so if you throw away possessions as the Raptors were down much of the stretch last night.
    Alright I just re-watched the last 5 minutes of regulation and here's how the Raptors blew a 10 point lead (plays numbered for our convenience):

    - 96-86 @ 4:16

    1. BKN - wide open 3 when JV collapsed off Acy to help in the post and couldn't recover (96-89)
    2. TO - JV T.O. off broken p'n'r with Lowry
    3. BKN - T.O. bad pass
    4. TO - Ibaka tip-in (98-89)
    5. BKN - wide open 3 on kick out to Acy (JV's man, D had collapsed into paint) (98-92)
    6. TO - x2 screens for DeMar for open elbow jumper - in Twitter highlight video (100-92)
    7. BKN - put FVV/JV in p'n'r get a wide open layup after JV recovers to his man too early and leaves the ball handler all alone, no rotating help from the wings leaves the key wide open the whole drive (100-94)
    8. TO - exact same x2 screens as last trip, another open elbow J for DD - just needed to add a pump fake this time (102-94)
    9. BKN - exact same FVV/JV p'n'r since it got an open layup last time, JV comes out to shooter on switch this time but shooter hits a 3 over him (102-97)
    10. TOR - broken p'n'r leads to Lowry forcing and missing an ISO jumper (102-97)
    11. BKN - wide open transition 3 for Joe Harris, DD's man at the time - DD and Lowry were both covering Lowry's man in the key (102-100)
    12. TOR - screen for DD, lets Joe Harris reset then scores on him in ISO (104-100)
    13. BKN - put FVV/Ibaka in the p'n'r, Dinwiddie gets Ibaka on the switch - BKN clears out and Dinwiddie draws a foul on the drive, makes 2 FT's (104-102)
    14. TOR - DD gets switch off the p'n'r, TO clears out and DD scores and-1 from the post (107-102)
    15. BKN - from inbounds - a pile of screens completely throw off TOR's D, guys are scrambling and multiple BKN players are open, missed 3, offensive rebound, wide open 3 (107-105)
    16. TOR - FVV sets poor screen for DD, DD forces a contested jumper and misses badly - 7 sec left on shot clock (107-105)
    17. BKN - transition layup off DD miss (107-107)
    18. TOR - final play - Delon at top of key w/ ball from inbounds, Lowry sets a good screen for DD on weak side, DD comes to ball but Lowry's man and Delon's man both meet him on catch to contest an off balance shot that misses - Delon was wide open, but almost no time left as play developed very slowly

    Here are my thoughts:
    - The D was a much bigger problem than the O. The D gave up 3 open 3's and 2 open layups in 4 minutes. That's ridiculous.
    - There was some excellent offensive execution for Toronto (mostly in the Twitter highlight reel) getting DeMar open shots. They don't just go ISO - they set 1 or 2 screens or used the p'n'r, the consecutive 2 screen sets were nice. That said, Lowry and DD each forced a bad, contested jumper that missed when they weren't even open and still had time to move the ball. They shouldn't be forcing those shots just because they are the guy or whatever. Those were two bad possessions where we should have seen some ball movement. BKN did a better job of swinging the ball until they found an open shooter.
    - Brooklyn absolutely pushed the ball hard every make or miss and the Raptors' transition D was not goodd. They either weren't set or were so focused on just finding their men in time, that the table was set for open BKN shots - e.g. no one was really paying attention to developing p'n'r plays which BKN got into quickly.
    - JV being unable to guard a shooter at the perimeter (his own or off a p'n'r) led to three BKN 3's - 9 points in 4 minutes. This is why Case doesn't play him in crunch time often. That said JV's great screens sprung DeMar for wide open J's multiple times at the other end. Those screens are not a given - FVV in particular set crap screens that didn't work. In general when FVV/Lowry/Delon were trying to set screens it didn't go that well, which definitely begs the "Why are 3 point guards playing?" question when they're trying to spring their SG free. Raptors should have more screeners who can shoot 3's and fewer PG's in these situations. There was no need for the extra ball handlers/passers in the sets they ran - no need at all. They did need good screens and shooters for DD/Lowry to kick it out to instead of forcing contested J's.
    - DeMar's final two shot attempts (misses) were not very good. Both involved PG's trying to set screens for him.

    Edit: in last 4 minutes of regulation they scored 11 points and gave up 21. 21 points against in 4 minutes was definitely the problem.
    Last edited by S.R.; Tue Jan 9th, 2018 at 11:59 AM.
    "Control DeRozan's catch-shoot game. He rarely passes. Defend the ball. Much of what they do reverses to 1 on 1 play." -- Visitor Locker Room Whiteboard, Air Canada Centre, Feb. 26, 2015

  4. #22444
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    I agree that 21 points in 4 minutes is a problem. I don't think the expected value of the shots they gave up is 21 points though. The Nets got hot. Nor do I think playing small was any sort of solution to that problem.

    That said, I didn't mind the offence that much in the first stretch when they were setting good screens to set up the guards to score. The latter few minutes the screens were half-hearted at best and non-existent at worst. Toronto was up 107-102 and didn't score on either of their final two possessions with neither producing a remotely good shot. Meanwhile, they gave up open threes and transition looks (exactly the sort of thing going small is supposed to help avoid) as well as an offensive board (exactly the sort of thing you expect when going small).

  5. #22445
    Raptors Republic Veteran S.R.'s Avatar
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    lol


    "Control DeRozan's catch-shoot game. He rarely passes. Defend the ball. Much of what they do reverses to 1 on 1 play." -- Visitor Locker Room Whiteboard, Air Canada Centre, Feb. 26, 2015

  6. #22446
    Raptors Republic Hall of Famer Nilanka's Avatar
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    Quote S.R. wrote: View Post
    lol


    Still better than John Wall's toss.

  7. #22447
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    Quote Scraptor wrote: View Post
    Except this is wrong in multiple ways.

    1. Basketball players don't stay the same year over year, they typically improve over their first 3-5 years in the league. This is more pronounced for players who start at age 19 as they are still growing into their bodies and don't have the same amount of experience as college players who stayed through their junior or senior years.

    2. Jimmy Butler started at age 22, so he had a headstart on DeMar, but even then he didn't perform at the same level all seven years. He gradually improved over his first four years. His third year he shot only 52.2% TS (28% from 3), and had only an 11% assist rate. His following season he improved to 58% and 14%, respectively, and his fifth season he improved his playmaking to raise his assist rate to 21%.

    3. Dion Waiters has never cleared 50.8% TS and has a career average of 49.1%TS. DeMar's first five years he only went below 52% once and averaged 52.6%. Not great, but much better than Waiters. Note also that DeMar produced 21.5 win shares over that time frame, while in six seasons Waiters has only produced 7.4.

    4. DeMar has actually played 8 full seasons in the NBA. So if you want to shift gears after year 5, you need to look at his last three years. Over the past three full seasons he put up 24/5/4 on 54.1%TS. That was good for 27th in the NBA in win shares, while Thaddeus Young was 104th.

    It's a pretty backhanded compliment to say that DeMar played like Waiters and Young for "7" years, and is suddenly playing amazing this year. His assists are not WAY up, his assist percentage increased from 20.6% to 23.8%. In fact, over the four years prior to this one, DeMar had a 19.4% assist rate, while Butler had an 18.1% assist rate. Including this year it's 19.9% to 18.5% for DeMar.

    DeMar has been passing the ball and making plays for four solid years. He's taking it to another level this year, but to dismiss the last four years of very good play by comparing him to Waiters and Young is to say: "Maybe I was wrong, but not really."
    I see Demar's past two years as dramatically improved, and not the past four years. So a couple of years ago you and I would have come down on opposite sides of the 'is Demar good' conversation. You would point to win shares, I would point to chucking up long twos to inflate his win shares, and we would argue.

    This year Demar has shut up even me, who three years ago was still on the 'hater' bandwagon.

    To respond to your points in more detail, many of which are fair.

    1. Fair. Players do generally improve over their first three years. I simplified.

    2. Again, I simplified. Butler's 3PT% peaked in year 2 in the NBA ... and his assists have indeed gone up year over year. The general point I was making is that Butler has been very roughly consistent over time in WP48 (an aggregate stat), though individual stats have varied.

    3A. You are right, Dion Waiters was an exaggeration. Dion and Demar averaged around the same ~46% eFG% over their first five years, but Demar does have a better TS% because he gets to the line more. I should have found a comparable with the same TS% rather than finding one with the same eFG%.
    3B. I'm not sure win shares is the best stat to use, because Demar played a lot more minutes than Dion - although both took a comparable number of shots (which is why I used the comparison). I like impact per minute played stats.

    4A. Demar did make a big step up in years 6 and 7 (including a TS% of 55% from his earlier 52.6%). He ascended a further level in year 8 (currently a TS% of 58.7%). This last step is what has impressed me the most.
    4B. I'm looking at Demar's pure assists/48, which have gone from 5.3 to 6.9. His assist% has not gone up as much because the team as a whole is generating dramatically more assists this season.
    4C. Win shares isn't a fair comparison here, because Demar both played more minutes and took a higher percentage of his team's shots than Thad Young, both of which increase his win shares.

  8. #22448
    Super Moderator Joey's Avatar
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    Quote Jclaw wrote: View Post
    Woj pod on derozan. Havenít listened yet
    Just listened to it. Really enjoyed it. We've got ourselves a real standup guy in Demar.

  9. #22449
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    VOTE guys, dont forget
    Quote Abbas wrote:

    First of all i was my own source

  10. #22450
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    Toronto, and it's fans, have been lucky to have a throwback kinda guy like Derozan around for this long. He isn't perfect, but you get him, all of him, all the time, and its an honest effort.

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    "You Either Die A Hero, Or Live Long Enough To See Yourself Become The Villain"

  12. #22452
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    Fun fact: DeMar is now shooting 38% from three, which is third on the team behind Miles and Lowry (both 39%)
    The name's Bond, James Bond.

  13. #22453
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    Quote 007 wrote: View Post
    Fun fact: DeMar is now shooting 38% from three, which is third on the team behind Miles and Lowry (both 39%)
    Sure, if you don't count key sharpshooters like Jakob Poeltl and Malcolm Miller who are each .500 for the year.

  14. #22454
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    25-5-4 on 48/38/83 splits with a TS% of 58%.

    .210 WS/48 and 23.8 PER.

    This is legitimate Kobe level production (offensively). Like if you go look at Kobe's numbers in his prime and compare them to DeMar's they're pretty damn similar. Crazy how good he's gotten.

  15. #22455
    Raptors Republic Veteran planetmars's Avatar
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    He's now 5th on the MVP ladder:
    http://global.nba.com/news/kia-mvp-l...bacom:homepage

    Last week’s ranking: No. 8

    Season stats: 25.3 points, 5.0 assists, 4.3 rebounds

    The Raptors played without two starters (Kyle Lowry and Serge Ibaka), DeRozan didn’t come close to his season scoring average and yet they still walked out of the Air Canada Centre Thursday night having rocked Cleveland by 34 points. Ignore DeRozan’s pedestrian scoring output (13 points on 5-for-13 shooting) and instead focus on the masterful floor game he played (eight assists, three rebounds and no turnovers) in managing coach Dwane Casey’s new, free-flowing offense. The Raptors shared the ball against the Cavaliers and used their young legs to run LeBron James and his struggling crew out of the building. Nights like that aren’t possible without DeRozan making the necessary adjustments to his game. Don’t get it twisted, he’s still as dangerous as ever (25.6 points and six assists in his past five games while shooting 47.8 percent from 3-point range). He’s just doing it in a variety of ways.

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    I still think its hilarious that there are 2 Warriors in the top 5.

  17. #22457
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    Quote 007 wrote: View Post
    Fun fact: DeMar is now shooting 38% from three, which is third on the team behind Miles and Lowry (both 39%)
    Yes, but you know why people are noticing his improvement in three, because he scores when you are in a need. Yesterday, he had a back to back threes during the Cavs run. Other than that, you are totally right.

  18. #22458
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    Quote planetmars wrote: View Post
    Does he deserve to be in the MVP race ?
    Yes
    Does he deserve to be an MVP?
    To a great deal of extent, yes.

    Will he get the MVP ?
    No way. This league is bullshit. Remember When this league passed Hakeem in the MVP and gave it to the Admiral ?
    This league is a business league, they just promote business and nothing else.

  19. #22459
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    For me personally, barring Houston having a crazy 2nd half I think the MVP should go to the top producer on whoever finishes first in the east. I don't believe in any of those Warriors players getting MVP simply because of how stacked the team overall is.

    That means MVP this year (for me personally anyway) is between Kyrie Irving and DeMar DeRozan.

  20. #22460
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    Quote Shaolin Fantastic wrote: View Post
    For me personally, barring Houston having a crazy 2nd half I think the MVP should go to the top producer on whoever finishes first in the east. I don't believe in any of those Warriors players getting MVP simply because of how stacked the team overall is.

    That means MVP this year (for me personally anyway) is between Kyrie Irving and DeMar DeRozan.
    How valuable can a superstar be on a team with three superstars? Good point.

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