Valanciunas is the next...

[BC Boy]

It looks like Sabonis was more polished on the offensive end; however, you did say he was a year or two older.

At this point I am projecting Noah to be the closest comparison. Noah's (at 22) first year stats were:

MPG - 20.7
FG% - 48.2%
FT - 69.1% (on only 2.6 attempts/game)
ORB - 2.4
DRB - 3.3
TRB - 5.6
AST - 1.1
STL - 0.9
BLK - 0.9
TOV - 1.2
PF - 2.3
PTS - 6.6

The higher free throw percentage should translate into a few more points. I also see more free throw attempts occuring. Do these stats look like a good projection for Jonas' first year? What are your over/unders on these numbers?

[ebrian]

I know you weren't big fan of the pick, but we're obviously not talking about NBA stats, but what we see on the court. I wonder if someone said something similar about Kemba Walker, who's also done absolutely nothing in the NBA, whether you might have the same reaction.

Speaking of Kemba, it seems that Valanciunas is just as much of a winner as Kemba. Leading his team to the U16, U18 and U19 Championships while earning MVP in all those tournaments.

Sorry Tim, I don't follow. Kemba hasn't played in the NBA yet, so why would I ever say something so stupid as Kemba is "waaay ahead of" (insert NBA player here)?

Kemba beat players who were drafted ahead of himself. I didn't really follow this tournament, so maybe I'm wrong about this but were any 2011 NBA Draft players in this tournament besides Valanciunas?

[EuroBaller]

I dont know about you guys but i feel that he plays alot like Kevin Garnett. They are both lanky, solid defenders with good help side defense. Offensively, neither can body up his man but they have a nack for catching in the post and finishing at the rim. They can both step out and knock down the open mid-ranged jumper. Jonas seems to have the intangibles that KG has. They love to play with heart and leave it all out on the floor.
I don't really see the comparisons to Vlade and Joakim. Vlade excelled in the offensive side of the ball (could even play a bit of point-forward) but didn't really rebound much. Noah is a good one on one defender but is slow on the weak side. Offensively, Jonas is light years ahead.

[Tim W.]

Sorry Tim, I don't follow. Kemba hasn't played in the NBA yet, so why would I ever say something so stupid as Kemba is "waaay ahead of" (insert NBA player here)?

Kemba beat players who were drafted ahead of himself. I didn't really follow this tournament, so maybe I'm wrong about this but were any 2011 NBA Draft players in this tournament besides Valanciunas?

Why not? You don't think, say, Derrick Williams is way ahead of Julian Wright offensively? Or that Faried is a better rebounder than Bargnani? You don't have to have played in an NBA game to have more advanced skills than another player who has played in the NBA. It's obviously speculation, but that's what we've got right now. You were so set for the Raptors to draft Walker because you felt that Walker's skills obviously were better than many in the NBA right now, otherwise what would be the point?

[Joey]

Sorry Tim, I don't follow. Kemba hasn't played in the NBA yet, so why would I ever say something so stupid as Kemba is "waaay ahead of" (insert NBA player here)?

Kemba beat players who were drafted ahead of himself. I didn't really follow this tournament, so maybe I'm wrong about this but were any 2011 NBA Draft players in this tournament besides Valanciunas?

Valanciunas is VERY clearly a better Free Throw shooter than Andris Beatrins. That is obvious. Biedrins shot 33% from the FT Line. So I think it is fair to make statements like that when it is very clearly true.

To say 'ahead offesively' might be slightly general in statement, but Biedrins averaged 3 points a game as a rookie. I think JV would be better than 3 points a game, if he played this 'upcoming' season.

Mind you, Offense isn't what Biedrins brings to a team, so I think it is unfair in comparison.
Thats like saying the US is better at managing money than Haiti.

But JV could shoot 33% from the Free Throw line with his Eyes closed.

[Joey]

Why not? You don't think, say, Derrick Williams is way ahead of Julian Wright offensively? Or that Faried is a better rebounder than Bargnani?

Excellent point.

[Tim W.]

I don't really see the comparisons to Vlade and Joakim. Vlade excelled in the offensive side of the ball (could even play a bit of point-forward) but didn't really rebound much. Noah is a good one on one defender but is slow on the weak side. Offensively, Jonas is light years ahead.

Actually, Noah is a better team defender than man to man. Not sure why you think it's the other way around. Noah's biggest weakness defensively is that he doesn't have the strength or bulk to be a good post defender, at this point. Team-wise, though, his agility and hustle make him a game changer.

[ebrian]

Why not? You don't think, say, Derrick Williams is way ahead of Julian Wright offensively? Or that Faried is a better rebounder than Bargnani? You don't have to have played in an NBA game to have more advanced skills than another player who has played in the NBA. It's obviously speculation, but that's what we've got right now. You were so set for the Raptors to draft Walker because you felt that Walker's skills obviously were better than many in the NBA right now, otherwise what would be the point?

This is an interesting side of you Tim. How can you possibly know? Prove it. A month ago you questioned me about how I could make speculations of one player being better than another. Here, we have a player who has dominated other players not headed to the NBA, and suddenly it's okay to say he's waaay better than Joakim Noah and Andris Biedrins, and just as good as Tyson Chandler. Despite not having played a single game in the NBA, or played against any of his peers.

It's one thing to compare one player to another, but it's another to start saying that they are already better than another when you haven't even seen them play at the same level. You have to admit that this is crazy talk, unless we have different definitions of "waaay".

He's waaay ahead of Biedrins and Noah offensively.

[GarbageTime]

I don't think the Chandler comparison is that far off. Especially at the same age. Howard might seem far off, but I don't think you understand the reasoning. Valanciunas obviously isn't the physical specimen Howard is, but that's only part of what makes Howard the player he is. Both players are relentless on the boards, love contact and are able to score despite having few offensive skills.

The comparison to Pau is weak, I agree. Other than them both being white, European and 7 feet, I don't see it.

Sabonis doesn't make sense unless you watch early Sabonis, not the one who played in the NBA. If you watch early Sabonis, you can see the comparison.

As for saying he's a thinner Noah, Valanciunas is actually bigger than Noah. Noah, when he was drafted, was 223 lbs. Valanciunas is closer to 240 lbs. And he was 2 years older than Valanciunas when he was drafted.

I think Chandler is far closer than Biedrins. Biedrins is a good rebounder and shot blocker, but he's not nearly as fluid an athlete as Valanciunas is, and Valanciunas is a better offensive player right now than Biedrins is after 6 years in the NBA.

I know what you are referring to with Dwight... but Dwight without his strength and vertical is not a good player. That is exactly how he excels in the NBA.

Chandler I just don't see. That guy could jump out of the gym (especially when younger)... Jonas I haven't seen that from.

Sabonis I could see, but he had a very diverse offensive game and he could very well have been the best passing 7+fter the game has ever seen.... and I haven't seen that from Jonas

As for Noah... I'm not at all convinced he was 220lbs when he entered the NBA (do you know how skinny that is at 6'11?). If he was, then there is no way Jonas is 240. Jan Vesley is said to be as heavy as Noah is right now (while the same height), I just don't buy it. (Now I will say weight and strength and size aren't finite with how people look... muscle mass weighs more than fat etc etc.... but I put little value in how these guys are sized.)

I also don't see this fluidity/athleticsim/agility that you do in Jonas (not saying he is uncoordinated... just not to Chandler or Dwights degree... much more to Biendrins or Big Z). No doubt we'll have to agree to disagree on that, but I just don't see it.

[Tim W.]

This is an interesting side of you Tim. How can you possibly know? Prove it. A month ago you questioned me about how I could make speculations of one player being better than another. Here, we have a player who has dominated other players not headed to the NBA, and suddenly it's okay to say he's waaay better than Joakim Noah and Andris Biedrins, and just as good as Tyson Chandler. Despite not having played a single game in the NBA, or played against any of his peers.

It's one thing to compare one player to another, but it's another to start saying that they are already better than another when you haven't even seen them play at the same level. You have to admit that this is crazy talk, unless we have different definitions of "waaay".

Well, first of all, I'm not the one who said "he's waaay ahead of Biedrins and Noah offensively". That was someone else. And I don't actually agree with the comment. But bringing up their NBA stats, including Valanciunas, is not a valid retort, in my opinion. And I brought up examples of why it's not.

And why do you say that that other players in the tournament aren't headed to the NBA? I'm betting there will be quite a number of them, not just on the US team. JUst because they haven't been drafted yet, doesn't mean they aren't going to be. Most of these guys are just 19 years old. Many less than that. There might be a couple of lottery picks just on the US team.

[Tim W.]

Well, first of all, I'm not the one who said "he's waaay ahead of Biedrins and Noah offensively". That was someone else. And I don't actually agree with the comment. But bringing up their NBA stats, including Valanciunas, is not a valid retort, in my opinion. And I brought up examples of why it's not.

And why do you say that that other players in the tournament aren't headed to the NBA? I'm betting there will be quite a number of them, not just on the US team. JUst because they haven't been drafted yet, doesn't mean they aren't going to be. Most of these guys are just 19 years old. Many less than that. There might be a couple of lottery picks just on the US team.

For the record, I said that I thought Valanciunas would be better than Chandler and Biedrins. And I came to that conclusion by having watched all of them play.

[Tim W.]

I know what you are referring to with Dwight... but Dwight without his strength and vertical is not a good player. That is exactly how he excels in the NBA.

Chandler I just don't see. That guy could jump out of the gym (especially when younger)... Jonas I haven't seen that from.

Sabonis I could see, but he had a very diverse offensive game and he could very well have been the best passing 7+fter the game has ever seen.... and I haven't seen that from Jonas

As for Noah... I'm not at all convinced he was 220lbs when he entered the NBA (do you know how skinny that is at 6'11?). If he was, then there is no way Jonas is 240. Jan Vesley is said to be as heavy as Noah is right now (while the same height), I just don't buy it. (Now I will say weight and strength and size aren't finite with how people look... muscle mass weighs more than fat etc etc.... but I put little value in how these guys are sized.)

I also don't see this fluidity/athleticsim/agility that you do in Jonas (not saying he is uncoordinated... just not to Chandler or Dwights degree... much more to Biendrins or Big Z). No doubt we'll have to agree to disagree on that, but I just don't see it.

Howard wouldn't be an All-NBA center without his strength and vertical, but he's still got skills beyond that. He'd still be a good rebounder and scorer around the basket. He doesn't simply use his strength and athleticism. If that was the case then Olowakando wouldn't have been a bust. Or Kwame. Or Sene, or Diop.

Yes, Chandler is a better leaper than Valanciunas, but leaping ability in a big man isn't really all that important. And while Chandler gets a lot of high flying dunks, due to his leaping ability, rebounds and blocks are usually gotten by timing and position, not by jumping ability.

And Noah weighed 223 when weighed at the Chicago Combine before the draft. And Draft Express lists Valanciunas at 240 lbs, and while it may not be exact (or it may be), I would say he's definitely around there. He isn't bulky, but he's not a beanpole at all. He's bigger than Bosh was when he was drafted.

Look at Valanciunas at the U19:


And look at Noah when he was at Florida, so about the same age (actually slightly older):



Valanciunas has broader shoulders than Noah does, so he would carry more weight without looking like it. Plus, he's probably got a good chance of becoming bigger than Noah because of it.

[Soft Euro]

If you believe the similarity scores he is most like Chandler (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1771 - can't see the score, it's probably in the part for subcribers) or Howard (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...articleid=1777).

The similarity score with Howard is 90.3 is pretty low; "In this case, because Valanciunas is so young, the pool of potential matches is very small. Take out age as a factor and Tyson Chandler pops up repeatedly." All other players listed have at least a 95+ comparison score.

So, these results are not as meaningfull as some of the other scores. But these similarity scores seem to have some big flaws, in 2009 Blake Griffin had a similarity score of 96,7 with Kevin Love... (http://www.basketballprospectus.com/...?articleid=710).

So ... overall this might be quite a useless post by me.

[jdot22]

Dennis Rodman in a Centers body lol ... more of an offensive repertoire with a better touch at rim

[Tim W.]

Dennis Rodman in a Centers body lol ... more of an offensive repertoire with a better touch at rim

That would make him Bill Russell. I'd be fine with that.