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Predicting the Raptors' 2018-19 Win Total

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  • #16
    inthepaint wrote: View Post
    ...arbitrary "landmarks" like 50, 55 or 60 wins won't mean anything imo.
    Except that it is those arbitrary landmarks that determine seeding and THAT should have an impact on how your playoffs proceed. Of course,. it hasn't always in the Raptors case in the past. But the team should have fixed that now.

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    • #17
      inthepaint wrote: View Post
      I like it. East and West actually don't look that unbalanced when you look at the win/losses at the end
      East is still top heavy as always. 4 good teams and then a bunch of teams struggling to get over .500.

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      • #18
        We are an outstanding team on paper. Hopefully we can translate that into real world ass kickings. All I really want for Christmas is to make Celtics and Sixers fans cry.

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        • #19
          Predicting the Raptors' 2018-19 Win Total

          The pictures posted aren’t loading on Tapatalk [emoji25]
          Last edited by Maury; Tue Aug 7, 2018, 08:27 PM.

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          • #20
            Without any data at all, I predicted 58 wins

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            • #21


              hype
              Only one thing matters: We The Champs.

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              • #22
                LJ2 wrote: View Post
                Well that's like saying what DanH has posted is arbitrary because it has nothing to do with the playoffs. Take the thread down because we're just here for the playoffs.
                No, that's not like saying that at all. What I said has little to do with the OP actually. The original post is not arbitrary, is the opposite of it (it takes advanced stats to project wins). That's neat.

                What I meant is simply that there are more important things than reaching certain "round" numbers of wins (like 50, 55 or 60), including having the team injury- free, rested, and well oiled for the playoffs.

                Like, for example we shouldn'tt expose our key guys with heavy minutes on game 82 when seeding is already decided and we're at 59 wins, just because we arbitrarily want a milestone 60 (we kinda did that for FVV last year, and lost him for the playoffs).

                Regular season wins are important to determine home court, which like I mentioned, we should try to get against Boston. They just don't need to be a "round" 60 for that.

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                • #23
                  Anywhere from 54-64 wins. I expect some hiccups.

                  The most important thing is I fully expect this team to be the best Rap team ever in the playoffs.

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                  • #24
                    Puffer wrote: View Post
                    Except that it is those arbitrary landmarks that determine seeding and THAT should have an impact on how your playoffs proceed. Of course,. it hasn't always in the Raptors case in the past. But the team should have fixed that now.
                    Sure. What I meant was striving for a "round" milestone number of wins (eg 55, 60) is arbitrary and, albeit nice, shouldn't be the priority

                    Striving for being a higher seed than Boston is a totally different thing. It will give you homecourt, which is important. That can come in the form of 58, 61 or 64 wins though. Won't matter, as long as we are:

                    -Having guys healthy and rested in April
                    -Hit their stride as a team/unit right before the playoffs
                    -Getting home court over Boston

                    The key is to try to do that without unnecessarily exposing our guys to heavy minutes and risk of injury, on game 82 with seeding decided, just because we want 60 wins instead of 59.

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                    • #25
                      Maury wrote: View Post
                      The pictures posted aren’t loading on Tapatalk [emoji25]
                      Can always go visit RapsHQ!

                      Sorry, no idea how to fix the pictures.
                      twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                      • #26
                        DanH wrote: View Post
                        Can always go visit RapsHQ!

                        Sorry, no idea how to fix the pictures.
                        Just finished the article Dan. Very well written and equally as informative. Nice job.

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                        • #27
                          Maury wrote: View Post
                          Just finished the article Dan. Very well written and equally as informative. Nice job.
                          Glad you liked it. Funny, the pictures didn't show up for a couple people on another forum too. Oh well.
                          twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                          • #28
                            DanH wrote: View Post
                            Wins produced is heavily flawed (IMO) in the way it treats rebounding and counts possessions.

                            Win shares also uses efficiency in it's calculation, just in a less obvious way.
                            Let's see if the Raps finish up with closer to 58 or 66 wins. Maybe that will settle it.

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                            • #29
                              Kuh wrote: View Post
                              Let's see if the Raps finish up with closer to 58 or 66 wins. Maybe that will settle it.
                              Well, I'm rooting for 66. But I don't think a single team projection settles anything.

                              I'm not questioning the projectability of the stat, even. I don't like the construction of the statistic, so I don't use it.
                              twitter.com/dhackett1565

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                              • #30
                                All of the tools used to predict win totals only look at players stats. There is nothing looking at coaching impact. Casey may have been a great development coach, but there is not much development needed this year. Those seeds have been sown and the Raptors are reaping the benefits. Casey also not a good in game coach. And many of use still have recovering bald patches from ripping our hair out at boneheaded moves and rotations he made. I expect more from Nurse. I think the team could win 3-5 more games just from that. I don't think Nurse's lack of experience costs them anything because he has years of experience as a head coach in other leagues and years of experience in the NBA.

                                The addition of Kawhi and Green to replace DeMar and Jakob is a net gain which can more than compensate for other eastern conference team improvements based on the growth of their starters or reintroduction of injured players (Boston). The Raptors are significantly better talent wise and Nurse is a step up in my opinion.

                                I don't see how they can't win 62-65 games.

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