Will this trade Finally get the Raptors a Christmas Game ?

[oseebhai]

I have a hard time pulling the way this works apart.

For American ratings and advertising, it's as though the Canadian market doesn't exist. But that's not true for the NBA or for whoever has the broadcasting rights. I know it gets wonky because of CRTC/Canadian content regulations - could TSN/Sportsnet not broadcast the US feed for a Raptors Christmas Day game? If not, can't the US broadcaster sub-license it out a Canadian broadcaster? Or can't the NBA do that directly?

Basically, however it has to work around the broadcasting regulations and broadcast licenses, in reality the Canadian market does in fact exist. The advertising revenue exists. The viewers exist. How is this not part of the calculations for the parent broadcaster or the NBA?

When the Raptors get national US games, we still get the game in both countries and at the end of the day the broadcasters and the NBA get all their money. How is Christmas any different? I have a really hard time believing anybody's making more money off a Milwaukee game than they would off a Raptors game.

Let me try to explain this from a different point of of view. I work in a Canadian division of a multinational consumer goods company that buys a ton of media, and it's all about being more efficient with your spend, which means you want to target your key consumer. When we buy any media, we ensure our key consumer is watching/listening, which means we target for the right age group, gender, psycho-graphic, and most importantly, being Canadian.

For any US brand team looking to spread their dollars, they want to ensure that their US consumer is being targeted. The US brand teams, who are the ones buying the media and are on the hook for 100% of the bill, do not typically receive any incentive from boosting the sales of a Canadian division. They are usually solely responsible for the sales of their US area. For that reason alone, the middle of nowhere hick town in the US may be a better draw for a US brand team than Toronto, which would be a complete waste of dollars. I would push for US teams only (even NY, which is a still a huge market, vs. Milwaukee), like the sponsors have done, if I was on a US brand team.

In terms of your question about sub-contracting the game to Canadian networks, ESPN/TNT or whichever US network spends billions on the rights to these games, there is no way the complexity of contracting out one game makes sense. Also, the sponsor packages are usually for the season, or maybe just for Christmas Day, but not for 1 game.

It's not a 'no one cares about the Raptors' question, and we should stop treating this like some sort of validation for our franchise. It comes down to practicality and money, and that's it.

[Primer]

If Kawhi stays we'll get one next year.

We still got two nationally televised games out of the gate, which I don't think has happened in a while or ever?

[rocwell]

Bucks v Knicks = Meh
OKC v Rockets = Meh
Celtics v Sixers = Ok
Lakers v Warriors = Meh and blowout
Blazers v Jazz = Meh

[KeonClark]

For the 17th straight year the Raptors won't be playing on Christmas Day. Toronto management/ownership pushed hard, I’m told. The NBA has its reasons, all of them business-related, but that doesn’t mean it sits well with Canada’s team, or its fans.

— Josh Lewenberg (@JLew1050) August 8, 2018

Here's what I dont understand: if having a team in Canada is so detrimental to the leagues bottom line, why would they ever choose to even operate here in the first place? Are Canadian dollars the equivelant to monopoly money, or can they be spent too? Theres a million strong here that watch raptor games too, can they not figure out how to profit off of this 35 million person fanbase the same way they do every American fan?

[Apollo]

Here's what I dont understand: if having a team in Canada is so detrimental to the leagues bottom line, why would they ever choose to even operate here in the first place? Are Canadian dollars the equivelant to monopoly money, or can they be spent too? Theres a million strong here that watch raptor games too, can they not figure out how to profit off of this 35 million person fanbase the same way they do every American fan?

It's a good question no doubt. The NBA wants to be a global brand but they offers no support to its one and only international team.

Had they scheduled the Raptors to face the Spurs on Xmas day it would be a ratings grabber. People would want to tune in for all the story lines.

My theory is the problem comes from the networks, not the league. The networks are experts in TV ad revenue generation. For some reason the Raptors do not perform well with American audiences or that's the preconception. The league needs to stand by the Raptors. They will never make impact without exposure.

[guyroch]

It's a good question no doubt. The NBA wants to be a global brand but they offers no support to its one and only international team.

Had they scheduled the Raptors to face the Spurs on Xmas day it would be a ratings grabber. People would want to tune in for all the story lines.

My theory is the problem comes from the networks, not the league. The networks are experts in TV ad revenue generation. For some reason the Raptors do not perform well with American audiences or that's the preconception. The league needs to stand by the Raptors. They will never make impact without exposure.

Other then New York and Bucks who will give a crap about the result of this game ... No rivliary no story lines ... Sorry but the Greek Freek isn't on my must watch list .

Spurs and Raptors would be on talk radio all week leading up to Christmas Day ... 4 NBA all stars would be in that game but Networks are going with Knicks vs Bucks

[guyroch]

TNT and NBA TV have poles on what game do you want to watch ... Why not have a pole ?

[Apollo]

Other then New York and Bucks who will give a crap about the result of this game ... No rivliary no story lines ... Sorry but the Greek Freek isn't on my must watch list .

Spurs and Raptors would be on talk radio all week leading up to Christmas Day ... 4 NBA all stars would be in that game but Networks are going with Knicks vs Bucks

TV networks make their money based on viewership. The more people who tune in, the more ad revenue they receive. In terms of the TV revenue stream, the NBA makes its money from TV primarily by way of these networks paying them for the rights to televise the games.

Just looking at this from a capitalist viewpoint, it's in the networks best interest to show games it forecasts people will want to watch. It's in the NBA's best interests to set these networks up for success. So, if this is all true then the Raptors not getting any exposure would be because ratings of other American nationally televised Raptors games weren't up to par and this data is used to factor the Raptors out of the decision.

I don't know how they determine who plays and I'm just speculating. Does anyone know of a way of seeing Raptors American TV ratings versus the ratings of these selected teams?

[golden]

TV networks make their money based on viewership. The more people who tune in, the more ad revenue they receive. In terms of the TV revenue stream, the NBA makes its money from TV primarily by way of these networks paying them for the rights to televise the games.

Just looking at this from a capitalist viewpoint, it's in the networks best interest to show games it forecasts people will want to watch. It's in the NBA's best interests to set these networks up for success. So, if this is all true then the Raptors not getting any exposure would be because ratings of other American nationally televised Raptors games weren't up to par and this data is used to factor the Raptors out of the decision.

I don't know how they determine who plays and I'm just speculating. Does anyone know of a way of seeing Raptors American TV ratings versus the ratings of these selected teams?

I don't have the real numbers, but I can give an example of the thought process on viewership. You have to look at each team as a national draw and regional draw:

L.A. Bron: 10M national + 2M regional = 12M
Warriors: 6M national + 2M regional = 7M
OKC: 4M national + 2M regional = 6M
Knicks: 2M national + 4M regional = 6M
Bucks (Giannis): 2M national + 1M regional = 3M
Raptors: 2M national + 0.5M regional (Canada) = 2.5M

So, assume that on raw viewership the Raps are close with the Bucks. The problem is that for the regional revenue, ESPN and TBS have to sub-license the broadcast to Canadian networks (e.g. Rogers Sportsnet), so they only get a portion. Basically, Rogers becomes a middleman. I have no idea what the license fees, royalty rates and commissions are, but the advertising dollars is the same and it's definitely going to be split.

Until Canadian basketball fans can step up to the plate and make our regional numbers so compelling to overcome the sub-license revenue share, then the Raptors are always going to be second class citizens, from an NBA business point of view. Jurassic Park and all that indicates a passionate fan base, but that just represents a small number of hard-core folks like us.

OKC with Westbrook is a great national draw and I suspect their regional viewership numbers are better, per capita, than other NBA markets because the fan base is so passionate (and actually watch games, unlike Canadians).

In sum.... it's not the NBA's fault. Blame Canada.

[guyroch]

TV networks make their money based on viewership. The more people who tune in, the more ad revenue they receive. In terms of the TV revenue stream, the NBA makes its money from TV primarily by way of these networks paying them for the rights to televise the games.

Just looking at this from a capitalist viewpoint, it's in the networks best interest to show games it forecasts people will want to watch. It's in the NBA's best interests to set these networks up for success. So, if this is all true then the Raptors not getting any exposure would be because ratings of other American nationally televised Raptors games weren't up to par and this data is used to factor the Raptors out of the decision.

I don't know how they determine who plays and I'm just speculating. Does anyone know of a way of seeing Raptors American TV ratings versus the ratings of these selected teams?

All those ratings and data are pre - trade ... Lebron leaves Cavs national audience for Cleveland will go down this year and so too look at previous years data would be dumb by the network . Wouldn't a TV audience want to watch a top 5 player on Christmas Day ? What is a TV data for top 5 players in the league and what is TV data for Top 5 players who have drama associated with their name

[planetmars]

This tweet seems relevant to this discussion:

Most-watched NBA teams on national television during 2017-18 regular season, via Sports Media Watch (American viewership)

The Jazz were 27th of 27 qualified teams. Portland was 21st.

Raptors were 16th. pic.twitter.com/18cY0buOYP

— Chris Walder (@WalderSports) August 8, 2018

This doesn't take into account which team these guys faced. For example, if everyone played Cleveland or GSW the viewership numbers would go up. But Raps aren't that bad compared to other teams in the league. 16 out of 30 teams.

[DanH]

This tweet seems relevant to this discussion:

Most-watched NBA teams on national television during 2017-18 regular season, via Sports Media Watch (American viewership)

The Jazz were 27th of 27 qualified teams. Portland was 21st.

Raptors were 16th. pic.twitter.com/18cY0buOYP

— Chris Walder (@WalderSports) August 8, 2018

This doesn't take into account which team these guys faced. For example, if everyone played Cleveland or GSW the viewership numbers would go up. But Raps aren't that bad compared to other teams in the league. 16 out of 30 teams.

Raptors played Celtics, Wizards, Pistons and Cavs on ESPN. Cavs on TNT.

Meaning the weighted average of those 5 games taking the Raptors out of the equation should have been 2.15M. Making their game with TOR about a 30% loss of audience. Meaningful but not crazy.

[DanH]

For comparison, MIL only got 1.39M over their 10 games last year. They played CLE, SA, GSW, PHI, CLE, PHI, BOS, WAS, LAC, GSW. Those teams would average 2.12M. Meaning the Bucks counted as an audience loss of 34.5% (to the Raptors' 33% to be more precise than the above post).

Audience loss is not a great argument. It's probably just "common nonsense" in that it seems obvious not to schedule a Canadian team because of the assumed loss of audience, so they don't.

[golden]

For comparison, MIL only got 1.39M over their 10 games last year. They played CLE, SA, GSW, PHI, CLE, PHI, BOS, WAS, LAC, GSW. Those teams would average 2.12M. Meaning the Bucks counted as an audience loss of 34.5% (to the Raptors' 33% to be more precise than the above post).

Audience loss is not a great argument. It's probably just "common nonsense" in that it seems obvious not to schedule a Canadian team because of the assumed loss of audience, so they don't.

We really can't answer this question until we know who the main networks are, who the regional broadcasters are and how the revenues are divvied up. Each package of games offered up is probably negotiated with each network and interactively with the schedule. Not to mention that the schedule itself has logistical dependencies (flights, B2Bs, etc...). Unless we're in those discussions, we have no way of calculating the business benefit/cost analysis for the NBA, network and advertisers.

[guyroch]

Raptors played Celtics, Wizards, Pistons and Cavs on ESPN. Cavs on TNT.

Meaning the weighted average of those 5 games taking the Raptors out of the equation should have been 2.15M. Making their game with TOR about a 30% loss of audience. Meaningful but not crazy.

Again I said .. The Cavs were 2nd but Networks won't put them on Christmas Day cause of previous Data .. Shouldn't the reverse also be in effect ie A top 5 player just went to another market and so shouldn't you project what effect that will be ?