Lowe Post Podcast - Raptors Focused! 12.28.2016

[SkywalkerAC]

Don't forget to vote the easiest way (through Google): https://www.google.ca/?gfe_rd=cr&ei=...A+Vote+raptors

[slaw]

What exactly is "it"?

a) To be the odds on favourite to win the NBA title?

b) To increase our title chances from ~10% to ~20%?

We could partially mortgage our future to get to b). Milsap might do that.

I don't even know if it's possible to get to a). We'd have to upgrade significantly in a number of areas. And be prepared for a huge crash before Lowry's next contract is done, maybe even half done.

"It" is win a championship. You don't need to be the 'odds on favourite' or have a specific percentage chance (not even sure what that means) you just need to be one of the teams with a realistic chance. Right now, only two teams have that and Toronto isn't one of them (the Spurs and Clips are in the same boat as Toronto).

As for the rest, I have no problem mortgaging the future and I have no problem if being a legit title contender for two or three years results in a massive crash afterwards. That's the cycle of life in sports.

Again, this isn't an explanation of how to do it or what all the options might be or a question of if it's even possible. It's simply my opinion that the organization should be prepared to go all out to win right now, this year and next and do whatever it takes to make that happen. Personally, I would support that move even if it meant mortgaging the future and risking a collapse. If a trade can't be done then it can't be done but if the rationale for not doing something is that the front office is looking 5 years down the road or ownership doesn't want to spend or they are that risk adverse, then that would be a disappointment from my perspective.

[iblastoff]

I'm definitely in the go for it now camp. You've got a prime Lowry, a prime Derozan and those two guys are good enough to get you ~55 wins. Raps have 3 young centres, two young scorers off the bench (Ross and Powell) and guys like Siakam, Wright and Joseph and even Van Vleet, not to mention two more picks this season. There's lots of depth to weather a big trade and I have lots of confidence that this front office can rebuild the depth given their track record with guys like Powell, Siakam, Wright and Poeltl.

These windows are small. Remember how the Pacers took Miami to the mats in the ECF two years in a row? Look at them now.

Now, I have no idea how they get 'the guy' but I'd love to see it even if it means sacrificing some good players.

well to be fair, pacers also lost their main player for a whole year due to that terrible injury. imagine if this team lost kyle or demar for an entire season?

[Fully]

If you never take any risks, you can never be criticized. That's why it's interesting that Lowe suggested Masai is overly cautious and likes to really win every trade.

We thought last summer might be time to make a move--remember how much talk there was about the Knicks pick?--and ultimately we ended up with a third string center and more depth. Or as they put it on the podcast, a bunch of young players who don't play.

At some point, if we don't consolidate these assets, they will lose their value (note their discussion of Bruno) and we will be running in place.

Agreed. It doesn't take very long in some instances for the value of an asset to diminish greatly or disappear altogether. The #9 overall pick in the NBA draft is a very good asset to start a trade package around, but when it morphs into Jakob Poeltl on the end of the Raptors bench 6 months later... not so much. I view both first round picks that the Raptors hold this year the same way - they hold more value now as "First Round picks" than they will in July when they become more D-League affiliates for the Raps.

And I never thought that Bruno was some amazing trade piece by any means, but when you hear Lowe et al questioning whether he'll get another contract in the NBA after this one, you realize that the time to dangle him based on his immense potential has now come and gone. He's basically the same player in year three as he was in year one, and appears now to be value-less in a trade.

I'd be okay with packaging some of the accumulated depth, draft assets, or even a guy like JV for a shot at a player that will increase our odds of beating the Cavaliers. With the D League affiliate and Masai's track record of finding serviceable rotation players in the latter stages of the draft, I think that depth can be re-stocked pretty quickly. However we will find it very difficult to find another true impact player to add to Lowry/DeRozan unless it's via trade.

[3inthekeon]

"It" is win a championship. You don't need to be the 'odds on favourite' or have a specific percentage chance (not even sure what that means) you just need to be one of the teams with a realistic chance. Right now, only two teams have that and Toronto isn't one of them (the Spurs and Clips are in the same boat as Toronto).

As for the rest, I have no problem mortgaging the future and I have no problem if being a legit title contender for two or three years results in a massive crash afterwards. That's the cycle of life in sports.

Again, this isn't an explanation of how to do it or what all the options might be or a question of if it's even possible. It's simply my opinion that the organization should be prepared to go all out to win right now, this year and next and do whatever it takes to make that happen. Personally, I would support that move even if it meant mortgaging the future and risking a collapse. If a trade can't be done then it can't be done but if the rationale for not doing something is that the front office is looking 5 years down the road or ownership doesn't want to spend or they are that risk adverse, then that would be a disappointment from my perspective.

Ninefiftyeight has us with about a 10% chance at winning the title. IIRC, Lowe said with Millsap it would be around a 20% chance.

Personally I'd be happy with an upgrade trade but only disappointed if Sully proves a poor ineffective fit (not much of an upgrade on Pascal) and Masai stands pat.

[distorsun]

Agreed.
I think the Lowry + Pat contract will force us to let go of somebody go, I do not remember quite the names (CoJo, Carroll, JV....)

Assuming the Raptors make it to the ECF but loose again maybe a new approach is needed. As constructed the strength of the team, free throws and a deep bench are season but not playoff strengths. So maybe by proving the point that the Raptors are good by making the ECF again, this summer is the time to reconstruct the team with emphases on the starters and a few roll players off the bench.

That could be a justification for going into the tax where maintenance of a "really good team" is not. Their not like the Celtics which have an incredible lottery pick plus cap space. MU really only has the trade route to make any leap forward.

Just a thought. We could be on the cusp of seeing the most interesting summer in franchise history in 2017.

[distorsun]

There is a high risk that Sully will end up a poor fit, but it will not be omnipresent in the regular season.
Think about this, You got a starting 5 with only ONE shooter (keep in mind that the guy with the ball is usually guarded).
Again, in the regular season, it will be fine, because it is hard to do worst than Scola, unless Sully cannot even do the an 'Amir' type of 3 pt shooting, ...then we have an issue.

Ninefiftyeight has us with about a 10% chance at winning the title. IIRC, Lowe said with Millsap it would be around a 20% chance.

Personally I'd be happy with an upgrade trade but only disappointed if Sully proves a poor ineffective fit (not much of an upgrade on Pascal) and Masai stands pat.

[distorsun]

Nope.
Just the bucks. Jabari is really start to look like the 2nd overall pick. We also forgot that Middleton is injured and he is a game changer for them. They have a VERY YOUNG BIG 3 , and they are all very good NOW and are nowhere near their ceiling.
If Henson can become a force inside = WATCH OUT. !

The only team I worry about catching the Raps over the next couple of seasons is the Bucks. Maybe the Pistons, but I think they're more of a long shot.

The Celtics and Hornets aren't talented enough.

The Hawks, Bulls and Knicks are too old, and will probably decline.

The Pacers will have problems filling out their roster around George and Turner.

The Wizards are going the wrong way.

I don't see the top end talent on the Magic.

The Heat are going to need to rebuild, and with the new CBA it will take a while. Same with the Nets.

The 76ers have some interesting talent, but their roster is such a mess, and they're so young, it's hard to see them being relevant within the next 2-3 seasons.

Also, it's worth mentioning that the Cavs are so beyond capped out that it's only going to take one bad offseason and they won't be able to fill out their roster. Their run will probably end the same way as the Heat's. A few good players making a tonne of money, and not enough to fill out the roster.

[meductic]

I might be off on this but when trading for the best player on another team in the category of PG or Milsap, and to a lesser extent Cousins or Whiteside, it would seem to me that the return would have to be at least one of our 2 top players. Otherwise don't you just go directly to Boston or Philly to start working on the future. I mean you are not trading PG for Powell or Ross, and I don't think we can trade them both even if it could work. Well for PG maybe. But to get a third difference maker we will probably have to give up a difference maker, and according to those advocating this route that player is neither JV or Carroll, and not Patterson without major pieces. Otherwise I am sure Masai spends 24 hours a day trying to figure out how to get around how to get the third piece without making the team worse. At least Noel is somewhat more realistic and intriguing on the trade end, the dispute there being more over what you are getting, and do you really want to have to deal with 3 free agent bigs next year after giving Lowry the max?

[meductic]

... don't get me wrong, I still am and will continue to be a big advocate of Masai getting a few of those aging machine things.

[DanH]

Millsap is expiring. No way would the Raps trade their top players for him. And I doubt there would be much market for him from rebuilding teams with high picks and good prospects, as he'd be unlikely to re-sign there.

[OakTree]

I might be off on this but when trading for the best player on another team in the category of PG or Milsap, and to a lesser extent Cousins or Whiteside, it would seem to me that the return would have to be at least one of our 2 top players. Otherwise don't you just go directly to Boston or Philly to start working on the future. I mean you are not trading PG for Powell or Ross, and I don't think we can trade them both even if it could work. Well for PG maybe. But to get a third difference maker we will probably have to give up a difference maker, and according to those advocating this route that player is neither JV or Carroll, and not Patterson without major pieces. Otherwise I am sure Masai spends 24 hours a day trying to figure out how to get around how to get the third piece without making the team worse. At least Noel is somewhat more realistic and intriguing on the trade end, the dispute there being more over what you are getting, and do you really want to have to deal with 3 free agent bigs next year after giving Lowry the max?

I believe that PG and Cousins would lose their designated player exceptions if they were traded.

So, they would be pissed. And their agents would be pissed.

The new CBA makes it really hard for top players to change teams after their rookie contracts.

[Demographic Shift]

I believe that PG and Cousins would lose their designated player exceptions if they were traded.

So, they would be pissed. And their agents would be pissed.

The new CBA makes it really hard for top players to change teams after their rookie contracts.

So..Wiggins and Towns for the timber puppies....
Who do you designate?

[DanH]

So..Wiggins and Towns for the timber puppies....
Who do you designate?

You get two.

[Demographic Shift]

You get two.

In a word.....Shit...

Have to put my Local Boy Comes Home banner back in the garage