The Biyombo Effect

[DanH]

Yeah, but Net-Rating is more impacted by the other 3 guys on the court's production.

Patterson has shot better with Biyombo, and without scouring to see if there is another (larger) impact player on the roster that counters him (which seems unlikely), then Patterson has been largely immune.

Also note that beyond Kyle Lowry Over Everything and James Johnson (Esquire), Patterson has the best on-court net rating with Biyombo. His resistance to the Biyombo Effect clearly has a lot to do with that.

[raptors999]

Also note that beyond Kyle Lowry Over Everything and James Johnson (Esquire), Patterson has the best on-court net rating with Biyombo. His resistance to the Biyombo Effect clearly has a lot to do with that.

Think Net has to be taken into account. +24 to -0.9 is a 24 point swing. Ross and CoJo show similar huge swings.

[Eliza]

Dan's the better stat guy than me, but I'll try to respond.

1. When you say the 'bench guys were stinking up the joint', that begs the question: Why? Both Patterson and Ross have shown the capability to be efficient bench guys, Ross had a 43% 3pt rate and near 60% true shooting rate in December. So why were they so much worse when Biz was on the floor with them? The best guess is that Biz's offensive shortcomings take away space that denies those guys the shots that make them effective. It's a much harder case to say that those players take away Biz's offensive opportunities, because a lot of Biz's offensive shortcomings come from a basic lack of skills. He simply doesn't shoot the ball well aside from dunks and layups, and sometimes has issues with catching the ball.

2. 1 game sample sizes are always limited. JV's numbers as a starter are better, for sure, but that one game was also his first game back from injury as well. Also, the bench players all have better numbers with JV than with Biz.

3. Carroll also has better numbers with JV than with Biz, and Ross as a starter was very, very good in Carroll's absence(actually, better offensive and defensive numbers than Carroll has as a starter this season).

4. This is tough to measure. Biz started games against the Spurs, Clippers, Cavs, Heat, Pacers and Warriors. He also started games against Denver, Phoenix, Lakers, Bucks(twice), Kings, and 76ers. JV has started some games against bad teams, has also started against the Bulls, Warriors, Heat, Thunder, Celtics, Pacers, Cavs. I'd say it's somewhat even, at a glance.

1. C'mon, you're not really suggesting that Ross's and PP's early shooting struggles were because of Biz. They were missing plenty of open looks, and everybody was screaming for their heads, rightly so. Let's not re-write history to suit the narrative.

2. Point being, out of context, all it would take is a few games of bad numbers, with or without qualifications such as first game back, to skew the numbers. Are there perhaps "qualifications" that one could apply to some of Biz's games, but aren't?

3. Again, regardless of who was playing the 5, it's rather clear that Ross's shooting was much better in Dec than Nov, but you wouldn't conclude that this improvement was due to playing with Biz at the 5, would you? You can't say on one hand that Biz restricted space for Ross when he was bad, but didn't when he was good. Can't have it both ways.

4. You omitted Biz's starts against Bulls and Hawks, and included JV's start against Celtics (who I wouldn't include in this group).

In any case, overall point being that there can be lots of context and qualifications lost in looking at raw numbers to prove a point.

[KHD]

Matt & Jack/Leo are clearly DeMar/Kyle/Casey guys, and despite them being good play-by-play guys, their bias does bleed into their broadcasts.

They're also pretty firmly on the Bizwagon it seems.

Honestly it's become kind of annoying every time they gush over the fact that he collected an athletic-looking rebound.

But that's what happens when a guy who is, and clearly should be, entrenched as a bench player (except for Casey's moronic 4th quarter antics) plays even OK when pressed into a starting role due to circumstance (which he did, even though the team falls apart when he plays too much).

[Wild-ling#1]

They're also pretty firmly on the Bizwagon it seems.

Honestly it's become kind of annoying every time they gush over the fact that he collected an athletic-looking rebound.

But that's what happens when a guy who is, and clearly should be, entrenched as a bench player (except for Casey's moronic 4th quarter antics) plays even OK when pressed into a starting role due to circumstance (which he did, even though the team falls apart when he plays too much).

I actually don't mind that appraisal. But he does look spectacular - and the team performed well without it's starting center (and biggest FA acquisition) - sported a nice record. And he's so willing and cooool. Sure a bench player - but a broadcaster and fan-favourite.

So many of us are not annoyed by the approval.

[Axel]

I actually don't mind that appraisal. But he does look spectacular - and the team performed well without it's starting center (and biggest FA acquisition) - sported a nice record. And he's so willing and cooool. Sure a bench player - but a broadcaster and fan-favourite.

So many of us are not annoyed by the approval.

Spectacular might be a touch overboard. He plays in a visually appealing manner - intense and energetic, but spectacular deserves a bit more substance that we've seen. The numbers speak for themselves but the eye test is certainly there to be seen as well.

[KHD]

I actually don't mind that appraisal. But he does look spectacular - and the team performed well without it's starting center (and biggest FA acquisition) - sported a nice record. And he's so willing and cooool. Sure a bench player - but a broadcaster and fan-favourite.

So many of us are not annoyed by the approval.

I totally get where you're coming from and I do like biyombo as a bench player. he also seems to be a great guy.

I'm just getting a bit tired of the over-the-top nature.

But guys like this always get that treatment. Reggie Evans was God's gift to basketball for a while there too.

[KHD]

Spectacular might be a touch overboard. He plays in a visually appealing manner - intense and energetic, but spectacular deserves a bit more substance that we've seen. The numbers speak for themselves but the eye test is certainly there to be seen as well.

Maybe i'm just a cynical fan but after so long watching ball i'd rather watch tim duncan (effectiveness) over deandre jordan (flash).

[DanH]

2. Point being, out of context, all it would take is a few games of bad numbers, with or without qualifications such as first game back, to skew the numbers. Are there perhaps "qualifications" that one could apply to some of Biz's games, but aren't?

I tried looking at the numbers while completely removing JV's best stretch (the first 5 games) and Biyombo's worst stretch (the first 12 games). That's about as much "good game vs bad game" impact we can in good faith remove (frankly, well over the line in my opinion but I live to serve).

Overall Net Rating with those games removed:
JV: +5.6 (best on the team)
BB: -0.2 (worst on the team)

That's with JV's performance during the team's 5 game win streak to start the season removed, and all of BB's early season bench struggles removed. A couple bad or good games here or there won't have nearly the impact of removing close to 20 combined games between the two players, in their best and worst stretches respectively.

[Eliza]

I tried looking at the numbers while completely removing JV's best stretch (the first 5 games) and Biyombo's worst stretch (the first 12 games). That's about as much "good game vs bad game" impact we can in good faith remove (frankly, well over the line in my opinion but I live to serve).

Overall Net Rating with those games removed:
JV: +5.6 (best on the team)
BB: -0.2 (worst on the team)

That's with JV's performance during the team's 5 game win streak to start the season removed, and all of BB's early season bench struggles removed. A couple bad or good games here or there won't have nearly the impact of removing close to 20 combined games between the two players, in their best and worst stretches respectively.

That point was 1 of 4,,,,,, but in any case, I thought the topic, and the numbers analysis I was responding to, was how other players' numbers were different with JV vs BB. I don't question that JV is a much better all around player than BB, but questioned the relevance of the numbers I responded to.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

I actually don't mind that appraisal. But he does look spectacular - and the team performed well without it's starting center (and biggest FA acquisition) - sported a nice record. And he's so willing and cooool. Sure a bench player - but a broadcaster and fan-favourite.

So many of us are not annoyed by the approval.

I think the real debate is correlation VS causality.

Some people have pointed out that facts alone can't be trusted, and instead the record and/or eye-test should be relied upon (as if those would be objective or have any sort of consensus - ha). The record is what it is with various players in the starting rotation, but the stats help delve deeper into the story - the team picked up wins, but is that truly indicative of how effectively they're playing (ie: last year's regular season VS last year's playoffs)?

I have my opinions, as does everybody on RR and watching the games. Who's right? Tough to say without the benefit of being able to observe multiple realities simultaneously... although stats do tend to give birth to trends over time...

[Wild-ling#1]

Maybe i'm just a cynical fan but after so long watching ball i'd rather watch tim duncan (effectiveness) over deandre jordan (flash).

But don't you think his "hands" have shown some improvement? Seems like, in the first few weeks, when it was widely opined that he couldn't improve thus (and it seemed he was blowing "bunnies" regularly), the view was, nonetheless, if he could he would be a very valuable commodity.

(And the numbers currently under discussion notwithstanding, it seems widely assumed he will opt out, and get more money, at season's end ...)?

[DanH]

That point was 1 of 4,,,,,, but in any case, I thought the topic, and the numbers analysis I was responding to, was how other players' numbers were different with JV vs BB. I don't question that JV is a much better all around player than BB, but questioned the relevance of the numbers I responded to.

On-court net ratings (the numbers I put up) are effectively team ratings. So the minutes weighted average of the numbers I first posted would give you an overall net rating (how much the team outscores the opposition per 100 possessions with each player on the court). I could go through and regenerate the full list to show that the pattern is similar but I just posted the overall number, which is easier.

For the record, the overall number for the entire season looks like:

JV: +8.2
BB: -2.1

[golden]

On-court net ratings (the numbers I put up) are effectively team ratings. So the minutes weighted average of the numbers I first posted would give you an overall net rating (how much the team outscores the opposition per 100 possessions with each player on the court). I could go through and regenerate the full list to show that the pattern is similar but I just posted the overall number, which is easier.

For the record, the overall number for the entire season looks like:

JV: +8.2
BB: -2.1

Nice work, Dan & Axel. This is a perfect example of why you can't just look at traditional box score stats or the eye test. The casual fan would look at Biz working his ass off rebounding and contesting shots and say, "Wow. Biz is getting us a ton of extra possessions."

Reality is that Biz forces Lowry and Derozan to work way too hard for their offense, which generates opportunities for Biz to grab offensive rebounds. The presence of Biz also encourages and/or necessitates Lowry & DD to rest on defense, which generates opportunities for rim protection and defensive rebounds. In other words: the presence of Biz himself generates negative situations for the team, but positive opportunities for Biz to pad his individual raw stats.

In some ways it's analgous to the old David Lee defensive rebound: he allows the guy he's defending to get an easy shot up, and then he positions himself for the rebound and ends up with a 20/10 stat-line.

That said, I absolutely love Biz's toughness and overall vibe. But... small doses.

[Axel]

Nice work, Dan & Axel. This is a perfect example of why you can't just look at traditional box score stats or the eye test.

Thanks. Hatchet and Axe: Beyond the Box Score PodCast, coming to an alternate reality near you!