The Biyombo Effect

[Wild-ling#1]

Well, a big note for me, is that I've always accepted Biz's (current) limitations - and that he's a young, back-up center. I'd be surprised by any account (not limited to shot-blocking or some such) that didn't give JV a decided edge.

But I might also note that Biz was playing out of his real role - and with 4's and a D-League guy backing him up. And more minutes than he should be, to boot. But I think there might be more to this story (as Priemski suggested - even if too forcefully). But I'm not really a stat-guy. Though I'm convinced they can be illuminating - essential)

[DanH]

Ok. Looks pretty bad. I could think of some potential qualifications ... but how's about you say a few words about how meaningful these numbers are ... or "might be", if you're feeling modest.

Well, Biyombo is weighed down a bit by the bench's early struggles. Of course, he was a big part of that. And JV has had big games against bad teams. But Biyombo hasn't, and shouldn't we expect our guys to crush bad teams?

I've gone through all sorts of context exercises with these numbers on another site - a lot of JV's success is in that early 5 game win streak (which he was a big part of) so maybe not predictive (but that's a stretch). A lot of Biyombo's struggles came in those first 10 games or so when the bench was abysmal.

But the reality is there is SUCH a large gulf between them in SO many different scenarios with every single player on the roster... The team has simply, and factually, played much, much better with JV than Biyombo.

I tried doing the same comparisons while removing the impact of those first 5 games for JV, and those first 10 games for Biyombo, to make as generous a comparison to Biyombo as possible. And JV still came out ahead - though obviously not by as much. But then I considered what I was doing - that's as dishonest an approach as you can take, to reduce your available data by removing good games for one player and bad ones for another. So big picture, I think those numbers are pretty accurate in describing their impacts on the team this year.

[Wild-ling#1]

Well, Biyombo is weighed down a bit by the bench's early struggles. ....

But the reality is there is SUCH a large gulf between them in SO many different scenarios with every single player on the roster... The team has simply, and factually, played much, much better with JV than Biyombo.

I appreciate the response. I reaaly do. As big a gulf as there is in the numbers you posted, though, there seems to be a similar gulf between them and the way he is perceived - by some smart, and even reputable folk. Maybe it's just a misguided eye-test thing. Not sure. Maybe a mystery, maybe not ...

But no surprise you've anticipated me (as it were) and run some "control-group"-type numbers before I asked. So thanks

[Eliza]

Net ratings, by player, for the entire season:
Player | With JV | With Biyombo
Lowry: +4.9 | +3.4
DeRozan: +7.7 | -2.8
Scola: +5.1 | -2.9
Carroll: +3.5 | -6.3
Patterson: +24.9 | -0.8
Ross: +10.3 | -2.5
Joseph: +21.8 | -3.1
Johnson: +13.1 | -0.4

All these pairings have at least 75 minutes played together. Other player pairings were excluded (Powell, Bennett, etc).

Ok. Looks pretty bad. I could think of some potential qualifications ... but how's about you say a few words about how meaningful these numbers are ... or "might be", if you're feeling modest.

Well, a big note for me, is that I've always accepted Biz's (current) limitations - and that he's a young, back-up center. I'd be surprised by any account (not limited to shot-blocking or some such) that didn't give JV a decided edge.

But I might also note that Biz was playing out of his real role - and with 4's and a D-League guy backing him up. And more minutes than he should be, to boot. But I think there might be more to this story (as Priemski suggested - even if too forcefully). But I'm not really a stat-guy. Though I'm convinced they can be illuminating - essential)

I'm far from a stats person as well, as I feel too much reliance upon them without near enough context, tends to turn analysis of a sport, that encompasses far more factors than numbers, into science. Basketball is not science. That said, some attempt to put some context into the numbers:

1. Notice that the biggest differences are with the bench guys, where Biz played most of his minutes with them when they were stinking up the joint, most notably Ross and PP, affecting everybody's numbers on the floor with them. This would also affect starters' minutes (ie. DD, KL) when they were on the floor with the bench unit.

2. A small example of how numbers can get skewed in a hurry when on the floor with underperforming guys: As a starter, JV's ORtg:118, DRtg:104, in his 1 game off the bench: ORtg: 94, DRtg: 109. All it would take is a few games of that to skew the numbers drastically.

3. Almost all of JV's games, and the vast majority of playing time, were with the full starting unit, including the wing defensive stopper Carroll. A large number of Biz's starts he didn't have the luxury of playing with Carroll either. I've got a feeling that kinda affects net rating numbers, ya think?

4. Biz started more games against elite teams than JV did.

Let's get this straight. I'm in no way suggesting that Biz is a starter. He's a great backup, and JV is who should be starting, but naked numbers hardly tell the whole story.

[3inthekeon]

There was a reason Charlotte let him go and the most he could get was $3 million despite being an excellent defender. His limitations on offence negatively(almost exponentially) impact his teammates.

Compare that to Ryan Anderson, whose possibly the worst defensive PF rotation player who is coveted and makes, and will make far more than Biz, because he opens up the floor on the offensive end, allowing his teamates to operate.

[DanH]

I'm far from a stats person as well, as I feel too much reliance upon them without near enough context, tends to turn analysis of a sport, that encompasses far more factors than numbers, into science. Basketball is not science. That said, some attempt to put some context into the numbers:

1. Notice that the biggest differences are with the bench guys, where Biz played most of his minutes with them when they were stinking up the joint, most notably Ross and PP, affecting everybody's numbers on the floor with them. This would also affect starters' minutes (ie. DD, KL) when they were on the floor with the bench unit.

2. A small example of how numbers can get skewed in a hurry when on the floor with underperforming guys: As a starter, JV's ORtg:118, DRtg:104, in his 1 game off the bench: ORtg: 94, DRtg: 109. All it would take is a few games of that to skew the numbers drastically.

3. Almost all of JV's games, and the vast majority of playing time, were with the full starting unit, including the wing defensive stopper Carroll. A large number of Biz's starts he didn't have the luxury of playing with Carroll either. I've got a feeling that kinda affects net rating numbers, ya think?

4. Biz started more games against elite teams than JV did.

Let's get this straight. I'm in no way suggesting that Biz is a starter. He's a great backup, and JV is who should be starting, but naked numbers hardly tell the whole story.

I have zero issue with Biyombo as a bench player, and most of his struggles on the bench have largely been because Casey has no idea how to run a rotation. His struggles with the starters are because he's not a starting quality player (and he also does not fit with the starters at all).

I've been running numbers like these because there HAVE been suggestions that Biyombo had made JV expendable, or is good enough to be a starter to capitalize on the trade value of JV, or that JV's minutes should be reduced because Biyombo had "earned" more time. Simply to show that that is by no means even remotely true based on their performances this year. Certainly not to bash Biyombo's value as a key bench piece.

[DanH]

Oh, and Carroll has some of the worst numbers on the team because he's been playing hurt, has played a lot of minutes with that terrible starting lineup (both BB and JV versions) and has also for some reason played a lot of minutes where he is the only starter with the bench, a lineup that simply doesn't work no matter how much you squint. So he wouldn't be providing much of a boon to JV.

[Eliza]

Yeah DanH, suggesting Biz should be starter and JV is expendable is out to lunch.

[Barolt]

I'm far from a stats person as well, as I feel too much reliance upon them without near enough context, tends to turn analysis of a sport, that encompasses far more factors than numbers, into science. Basketball is not science. That said, some attempt to put some context into the numbers:

1. Notice that the biggest differences are with the bench guys, where Biz played most of his minutes with them when they were stinking up the joint, most notably Ross and PP, affecting everybody's numbers on the floor with them. This would also affect starters' minutes (ie. DD, KL) when they were on the floor with the bench unit.

2. A small example of how numbers can get skewed in a hurry when on the floor with underperforming guys: As a starter, JV's ORtg:118, DRtg:104, in his 1 game off the bench: ORtg: 94, DRtg: 109. All it would take is a few games of that to skew the numbers drastically.

3. Almost all of JV's games, and the vast majority of playing time, were with the full starting unit, including the wing defensive stopper Carroll. A large number of Biz's starts he didn't have the luxury of playing with Carroll either. I've got a feeling that kinda affects net rating numbers, ya think?

4. Biz started more games against elite teams than JV did.

Let's get this straight. I'm in no way suggesting that Biz is a starter. He's a great backup, and JV is who should be starting, but naked numbers hardly tell the whole story.

Dan's the better stat guy than me, but I'll try to respond.

1. When you say the 'bench guys were stinking up the joint', that begs the question: Why? Both Patterson and Ross have shown the capability to be efficient bench guys, Ross had a 43% 3pt rate and near 60% true shooting rate in December. So why were they so much worse when Biz was on the floor with them? The best guess is that Biz's offensive shortcomings take away space that denies those guys the shots that make them effective. It's a much harder case to say that those players take away Biz's offensive opportunities, because a lot of Biz's offensive shortcomings come from a basic lack of skills. He simply doesn't shoot the ball well aside from dunks and layups, and sometimes has issues with catching the ball.

2. 1 game sample sizes are always limited. JV's numbers as a starter are better, for sure, but that one game was also his first game back from injury as well. Also, the bench players all have better numbers with JV than with Biz.

3. Carroll also has better numbers with JV than with Biz, and Ross as a starter was very, very good in Carroll's absence(actually, better offensive and defensive numbers than Carroll has as a starter this season).

4. This is tough to measure. Biz started games against the Spurs, Clippers, Cavs, Heat, Pacers and Warriors. He also started games against Denver, Phoenix, Lakers, Bucks(twice), Kings, and 76ers. JV has started some games against bad teams, has also started against the Bulls, Warriors, Heat, Thunder, Celtics, Pacers, Cavs. I'd say it's somewhat even, at a glance.

[Axel]

I appreciate the response. I reaaly do. As big a gulf as there is in the numbers you posted, though, there seems to be a similar gulf between them and the way he is perceived - by some smart, and even reputable folk. Maybe it's just a misguided eye-test thing. Not sure. Maybe a mystery, maybe not ...

(Cue dramatic music)



In all seriousness though, perception by the old eye test can be as equally misleading as just the stats. The two need to be used in conjunction. Eye test also has the added bias imparted by the broadcast crew, which if you're watching Matt & Jack/Leo, is clearly impacted by their role and the relationship it has with the organization.

[Barolt]

(Cue dramatic music)



In all seriousness though, perception by the old eye test can be as equally misleading as just the stats. The two need to be used in conjunction. Eye test also has the added bias imparted by the broadcast crew, which if you're watching Matt & Jack/Leo, is clearly impacted by their role and the relationship it has with the organization.

Matt & Jack/Leo are clearly DeMar/Kyle/Casey guys, and despite them being good play-by-play guys, their bias does bleed into their broadcasts.

[Axel]

Dan's the better stat guy than me, but I'll try to respond.

1. When you say the 'bench guys were stinking up the joint', that begs the question: Why? Both Patterson and Ross have shown the capability to be efficient bench guys, Ross had a 43% 3pt rate and near 60% true shooting rate in December. So why were they so much worse when Biz was on the floor with them? The best guess is that Biz's offensive shortcomings take away space that denies those guys the shots that make them effective. It's a much harder case to say that those players take away Biz's offensive opportunities, because a lot of Biz's offensive shortcomings come from a basic lack of skills. He simply doesn't shoot the ball well aside from dunks and layups, and sometimes has issues with catching the ball.

Patterson has shown to, thus far, be immune to the Biyombo Effect, as per the OP.

Ross, on the other hand, is probably most impacted.

[Wild-ling#1]

Patterson has shown to, thus far, be immune to the Biyombo Effect, as per the OP.

Ross, on the other hand, is probably most impacted.

Like I said - "catchy". Not flattering, of course ... but catchy.

[Barolt]

Patterson has shown to, thus far, be immune to the Biyombo Effect, as per the OP.

Ross, on the other hand, is probably most impacted.

Via Dan's numbers, though, Patterson+JV is +24.9 net rating. Patterson+Biz is -0.8. That doesn't look completely immune.

[Axel]

Via Dan's numbers, though, Patterson+JV is +24.9 net rating. Patterson+Biz is -0.8. That doesn't look completely immune.

Yeah, but Net-Rating is more impacted by the other 3 guys on the court's production.

Patterson has shot better with Biyombo, and without scouring to see if there is another (larger) impact player on the roster that counters him (which seems unlikely), then Patterson has been largely immune.