GT Nuggets vs Raptors: 1st difficult game of a difficult back to back

[white men can't jump]

It's a good thing because if the first shot misses, you get another chance to either tie or win the game. The way they played it last night, if the first shot misses, you probably do not get another chance to get off another quality shot. I think that a good coach is always maximizing his team's odds to win the game by taking statistics into consideration, and I'm not sure that he did this.

Ok, I'm just going to totally take all the steam out of your argument...First I'm going to ignore the fact that you didn't seem to notice that I thought if he went early, there would've been waaaay more time than TO would've needed to get off a 3 to win/tie the game.....but lets get to the meat, the real clincher, the thing you can't possibly argue against.....

If they end up having to foul because they miss, and even if they have time to get up another attempt...why would Denver let them? It would be hard enough to get up a quality 3 pt attempt in a 3 pt game on the last possession, with the other team knowing they don't have to guard inside the 3 pt line at all....but ignoring that, if you believe statistics should be taken into consideration...what are the odds a similar coach WOULDN'T JUST FOUL TORONTO when they're up 3, forcing us to make 2 fts instead of letting us take a shot that could tie the game......

[JimiCliff]

If you would want Lowry to go earlier, and maybe he or Gay force a worse shot with it being a 1 point game, so that we still have time to foul and possibly make it a 3 point game, how is that a good thing???

It's a good thing because if the first shot misses, you get another chance to either tie or win the game. The way they played it last night, if the first shot misses, you probably do not get another chance to get off another quality shot. I think that a good coach is always maximizing his team's odds to win the game by taking statistics into consideration, and I'm not sure that he did this.

And again, I realize that it seems ridiculous to be bringing all this up after a win, but I'm just becoming more curious about Casey's clock management strategies. Specifically, there was a play a few games ago (Clips I think) where he did not go for a 2 for 1 at the end of a quarter where he clearly (in my amateur opinion [imao?]) should have.

[white men can't jump]

Maybe but the move he liked he created with the rip across the chest.

Keep in mind I am thinking in the most perfect of terms or situations. Ideally the ball is going through the net with as little time as possible.

I'd play for the win in that situation every time..... but that is just my opinion.

Basically, I would hope and plan for the time management that gives me the most chances at hitting a game winning shot in "one" possession(obv I do think in a 1 pt game you give enough time to foul +shoot again as well). Maybe Gay doesn't even get a shot he likes, but someone is open for a pass...with less time that wouldn't matter because the pass would be late so Gay would have to force a worse shot...so play for the iso, and a chance to get a lesser option off a pass, while always having time to rebound and have hopefully enough time for more than just a tip in or wild attempt (so like 3ish seconds), which should also be enough time to foul and get another chance to win/tie at the end.

[mcHAPPY]

But I didn't think Gay went early. I mean, he got a move he liked right away. If he had been forced deeper or cut off at the perimeter, he would've had time to make adjustments as well.

Maybe but the move he liked he created with the rip across the chest.

Keep in mind I am thinking in the most perfect of terms or situations. Ideally the ball is going through the net with as little time as possible.

I'd play for the win in that situation every time..... but that is just my opinion.

[white men can't jump]

And then you get a Lin or Irving situation.

No thanks.

If anything they left too much time on the clock.

But I didn't think Gay went early. I mean, he got a move he liked right away. If he had been forced deeper or cut off at the perimeter, he would've had time to make adjustments as well.

[mcHAPPY]

I thought that the shot should have come even earlier to give the Raps more time if they'd missed. I disagreed (and still do) with Lowry milking those first five seconds off the clock.

Then I said that if you're going to run the clock down, you may as well run it all the way down. But you guys are right about that - you should give yourself some time after the miss.

And then you get a Lin or Irving situation.

No thanks.

If anything they left too much time on the clock.

[Rapstor4Life]

You try to take as much time as possible to get a good shot in iso for a game winner. Honestly I dont know if anyone saw it but Lowry save the day disrupting Lawson on the PnR after inbounds and he had to toss up something with no business going in.

[white men can't jump]

I thought that the shot should have come even earlier to give the Raps more time if they'd missed. I disagreed (and still do) with Lowry milking those first five seconds off the clock.

Then I said that if you're going to run the clock down, you may as well run it all the way down. But you guys are right about that - you should give yourself some time after the miss.

Kinda glad the coach didn't see it that way. Look, I understand you want even more time for another possession, but when you have it down to one point, you don't worry about that.

If you would want Lowry to go earlier, and maybe he or Gay force a worse shot with it being a 1 point game, so that we still have time to foul and possibly make it a 3 point game, how is that a good thing??? It was a one point game, you definitely don't plan for missing the shot, you plan to make it....call the play you think gives you the best closing option (Gay iso), and just give yourself what you think is the minimum amount of time you need to either rebound and try again, or foul and still have a chance at a last ditch 3 if it comes to that.

If the Raps had missed Gay's shot, and say, gotten a foul with 3 second left, that's plenty of time to take a 3 if the Nuggets make 2 fts...but if you go early, to give yourself 10 seconds or something like that, and you end up down by 3, you're still probably just going to end up taking a last ditch 3 pt attempt, which doesn't take 10 seconds to get.
*Not to mention the 3 only gets you to OT, the best attempt to close it out gets you a win. And the way we were playing, and with the foul situation, OT would've been tough.

[JimiCliff]

the key is here you are angry that Denver had a chance to respond, but wouldn't you rather that the Raps have a chance to respond as best they can with another attempt?

I thought that the shot should have come even earlier to give the Raps more time if they'd missed. I disagreed (and still do) with Lowry milking those first five seconds off the clock.

Then I said that if you're going to run the clock down, you may as well run it all the way down. But you guys are right about that - you should give yourself some time after the miss.

[white men can't jump]

It isn't negative thinking, it's planning for all outcomes. The shot Gay took is basically a coin flip, so IMO you should be considering both possibilities.

The other thing is, Denver STILL had the chance to respond with a winning shot; the Raps didn't let the clock wind down far enough...although that could be on the players, not Casey.

I know it sounds like I'm being negative in spite of the win, raining on the little parade and all, but Jeff Van Gundy has a great quote: "If it's unacceptable in defeat, then it's unacceptable in victory."

Ok, I can't be certain, but I thought they wanted to run the play that early....
-First, they clearly wanted the chance to rebound the ball and get another attempt up...
-Second, they wanted a chance at a quality attempt. You say it was a lot of time for the Nuggets to run a play, but if Toronto missed, and got the board (assuming it wasn't just a tip-in), it would maybe give them enough time to call another timeout, which I think they had as well(but could be wrong), and actually run a play...the key is here you are angry that Denver had a chance to respond, but wouldn't you rather that the Raps have a chance to respond as best they can with another attempt?

I thought it was absolutely the right call. I didn't think Gay went early because I thought the whole time they would want 3-4 seconds left to get more than just a scramble attempt.

[JimiCliff]

Even with the shot being made, Denver didn't have sufficient time to take more than a desperation shot.

They had five seconds. Not a lot time, but certainly enough to get a good shot. Thing is they screwed up the inbounds pass.

[JimiCliff]

Gay has hit that shot so many times in his career he always goes to that side and burries that J wouldnt call it a coinflip. and thats what we are paying him for closing.

He shoots 40% in clutch situations. http://www.82games.com/0607/06MEM10E.HTM

Can't find the stats for end of game shots specifically, but I'd be shocked if he was significantly over 50% for his career.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

It isn't negative thinking, it's planning for all outcomes. The shot Gay took is basically a coin flip, so IMO you should be considering both possibilities.

The other thing is, Denver STILL had the chance to respond with a winning shot; the Raps didn't let the clock wind down far enough...although that could be on the players, not Casey.

I know it sounds like I'm being negative in spite of the win, raining on the little parade and all, but Jeff Van Gundy has a great quote: "If it's unacceptable in defeat, then it's unacceptable in victory."

I agree that the shot was likely taken a few seconds too soon (ideally), but doing so was likely a result of taking advantage of an opportunity that presented itself, while also leaving time for a putback (had the shot missed).

Even with the shot being made, Denver didn't have sufficient time to take more than a desperation shot. Had the Raptors left 10-15 seconds on the clock, then Denver would have had the advantage and the ultimate outcome of the game would have been out of the Raptors' hands.

I'd run the play as it went 10 times out of 10, even if Gay missed his shot and the Raptors had lost.

[Rapstor4Life]

Gay has hit that shot so many times in his career he always goes to that side and burries that J wouldnt call it a coinflip. and thats what we are paying him for closing.

[JimiCliff]

I disagree. The coach should draw up a play expecting the shot to be made, not missed. Using the negative thinking allows the other team to respond with a winning shot on their own.

It isn't negative thinking, it's planning for all outcomes. The shot Gay took is basically a coin flip, so IMO you should be considering both possibilities.

The other thing is, Denver STILL had the chance to respond with a winning shot; the Raps didn't let the clock wind down far enough...although that could be on the players, not Casey.

I know it sounds like I'm being negative in spite of the win, raining on the little parade and all, but Jeff Van Gundy has a great quote: "If it's unacceptable in defeat, then it's unacceptable in victory."