white men can't jump wrote:
View Post
Announcement
Collapse
No announcement yet.
Playoffs Next Year! Fool's Gold?
Collapse
X
-
"They're going to have to rename the whole conference after us: Toronto Raptors 2014-2015 Northern Conference Champions" ~ ezzbee Dec. 2014
"I guess I got a little carried away there" ~ ezzbee Apr. 2015
"We only have one rule on this team. What is that rule? E.L.E. That's right's, E.L.E, and what does E.L.E. stand for? EVERYBODY LOVE EVERYBODY. Right there up on the wall, because this isn't just a basketball team, this is a lifestyle. ~ Jackie Moon
-
ezz_bee wrote: View PostBased on what Ujiri was able to do with Bargs, I'm more likely to believe this is possible than I once thought.
Comment
-
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View PostAs useless as ranting about how tanking (despite the fact that about 1/4 of the league will be tanking next season) is a sure-fire way to land the next franchise talent, like LBJ or KD??
I have stated that I understand the allure and potential benefits of tanking, so I just expect the pro-tankers to openly admit the extreme amount of risk and luck involved with an all-out tanking strategy. The way some pro-tankers talk on RR (not necessarily you specifically), all Toronto needs to do is decide to tank and, voila, Wiggins will be automatically be a Raptor and is absolutely guaranteed to fulfill the once-in-a-generation, franchise-altering hype that surrounds him. I'm sorry, but it's not that simple.
CONS TO TANKING
- many teams doing it, plus some teams will just suck naturally
- even if Toronto was the only team tanking, having a bottom-3 record is not a sure thing
- even if Toronto finishes with a bottom-3 record, getting a top-3 pick is not a sure thing (lottery luck)
- even if Toronto wins the lottery, there's no guarantee that the draft pick will fulfill potential
- lots of talent/potential will be dumped in favor of draft picks, with no guarantee that drafted players will ever be better than players traded away
- another season of [deliberate] losing will turn off more fans
- another season of [deliberate] losing will turn off some agents/free agents (and Toronto is already not a highly desirable landing spot)
- another season of [deliberate] losing, followed by anything short of the draft pick(s) becoming a superstar/all-star caliber player, will be met with lots of blowback from fans/media/players/agents/free agents
- with all the teams tanking this upcoming season, quite a few of them are going to come away from the 2014 draft sorely disappointed, with relatively nothing of significance to show for their year of tanking
- failed tanking results in the team having far fewer tradeable assets at their disposal for rebuilding (having traded them all away for expiring contracts and draft picks), which is only magnified for teams that aren't top free agent destinations (ie: Toronto)
I just can't see TL/MU adopting tanking as their strategy, given all of the above, when you consider that they were brought in to turnaround the culture/indentity/perception of a perpetually losing franchise. It just doesn't make any logical sense to me, because tanking is far from a guaranteed success, especially this upcoming season. I think it makes more sense for MU to be an opportunistic vulture, to grab young/talented players that other teams are casting off as they go all-in with tanking.
Comment
-
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View PostAs useless as ranting about how tanking (despite the fact that about 1/4 of the league will be tanking next season) is a sure-fire way to land the next franchise talent, like LBJ or KD??
I have stated that I understand the allure and potential benefits of tanking, so I just expect the pro-tankers to openly admit the extreme amount of risk and luck involved with an all-out tanking strategy. The way some pro-tankers talk on RR (not necessarily you specifically), all Toronto needs to do is decide to tank and, voila, Wiggins will be automatically be a Raptor and is absolutely guaranteed to fulfill the once-in-a-generation, franchise-altering hype that surrounds him. I'm sorry, but it's not that simple.
sure theres no guarantee in drafting a star, but whats the guarantee in grabbing young players from other teams then, especially if you have to give up your own assets/players/picks to do so? or are you expecting other teams to just magically give up young talented players for next to nothing?
secondly, why would any team actually give up young, talented players when clearly thats what every team is after? on top of having to get rid of current assets? bargnani was the best trade chip we had in terms of losing a low priority asset and gaining back picks. now who else can we afford to lose? DD? gay?
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- many teams doing it, plus some teams will just suck naturally
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- even if Toronto was the only team tanking, having a bottom-3 record is not a sure thing
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- even if Toronto wins the lottery, there's no guarantee that the draft pick will fulfill potential
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- lots of talent/potential will be dumped in favor of draft picks, with no guarantee that drafted players will ever be better than players traded away
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- another season of [deliberate] losing will turn off more fans
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- another season of [deliberate] losing will turn off some agents/free agents (and Toronto is already not a highly desirable landing spot)
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- another season of [deliberate] losing, followed by anything short of the draft pick(s) becoming a superstar/all-star caliber player, will be met with lots of blowback from fans/media/players/agents/free agents
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- with all the teams tanking this upcoming season, quite a few of them are going to come away from the 2014 draft sorely disappointed, with relatively nothing of significance to show for their year of tanking
CalgaryRapsFan wrote: View Post- failed tanking results in the team having far fewer tradeable assets at their disposal for rebuilding (having traded them all away for expiring contracts and draft picks), which is only magnified for teams that aren't top free agent destinations (ie: Toronto)
Comment
-
iblastoff wrote: View Postexcept your own argument of "just getting young/talented players that other teams are casting off" is just as simplistic and short-sighted as the whole 'tanking for wiggins' idea.
iblastoff wrote: View Posti still don't get why you're loading all of your arguments with presumptions of failure to make it sound like you're actually saying something. do you want me to talk about failed trades and thus make some magical connection that trades are a bad idea too?
I have stated that I understand the allure and potential benefits of tanking, so I just expect the pro-tankers to openly admit the extreme amount of risk and luck involved with an all-out tanking strategy. The way some pro-tankers talk on RR (not necessarily you specifically), all Toronto needs to do is decide to tank and, voila, Wiggins will be automatically be a Raptor and is absolutely guaranteed to fulfill the once-in-a-generation, franchise-altering hype that surrounds him. I'm sorry, but it's not that simple.Last edited by CalgaryRapsFan; Thu Jul 4, 2013, 01:40 PM.
Comment
-
Atlanta is really interesting right now.
They are clearly not tanking having signed Korver and Millsap to big deals.
The signing of Millsap would strongly suggest Smith is not back.
Do they sign and trade Smith?
What happens with Horford? Horford always said he wanted to play PF but with Millsap, no question he is the C. Is Horford available?
Comment
-
Matt52 wrote: View PostAtlanta is really interesting right now.
They are clearly not tanking having signed Korver and Millsap to big deals.
The signing of Millsap would strongly suggest Smith is not back.
Do they sign and trade Smith?
What happens with Horford? Horford always said he wanted to play PF but with Millsap, no question he is the C. Is Horford available?@Chr1st1anL
Comment
-
I have a feeling that Atlanta is doing what Milwaukee is doing.. ie, doing what they can to make the playoffs. Horford therefore is probably not tradeable, which sucks.
On my watch these are the teams that are legitimately tanking next season:
Boston, Philly, Utah, Sacramento and Orlando.
These are the teams that will probably be in the lottery:
Charlotte, Cleveland, Phoenix, LAL, Dallas, and Portland
These are the teams probably on the bubble:
Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, NOLA, Minnesota, Toronto
For those in favour of tanking.. I think it's going to be really difficult to out lose some of these teams.
Comment
-
Chr1s1anL wrote: View PostDoubt Horford is available.
But lets see what happens with Josh Smith first.
If Asik ends up in Atlanta, I would not be surprised to see Horford moved given the Millsap signing.
I can't see ATL paying Millsap $9.5M to be 3rd big in rotation nor can I see Millsap accepting such a short term contract (2 years) to be a backup.
Comment
-
Matt52 wrote: View PostYou are likely right.
But lets see what happens with Josh Smith first.
If Asik ends up in Atlanta, I would not be surprised to see Horford moved given the Millsap signing.
I can't see ATL paying Millsap $9.5M to be 3rd big in rotation nor can I see Millsap accepting such a short term contract (2 years) to be a backup.
It's so hard to figure out trade scenarios as trade machine is in limbo....but it doesn't seem that crazy to me.
Something where the basis for a 3-team deal is....
Toronto gets: Horford
Houston gets: Smith
Atlanta gets: Asik and DeMar
Obviously Atlanta would probably get a pick or two (I'm thinking a 1st and 2nd, and one from each of Houston and Toronto), a young player like maybe Jones (which in that case I think Toronto would have to give up a 1st...hopefully that newly gained 2016 pick)....
Comment
-
white men can't jump wrote: View PostEspecially if maybe a team like the Raps aggressively tries to facilitate a sign-and-trade with Josh Smith to somewhere like Houston? Maybe Atlanta would have legit interest in DeMar.
It's so hard to figure out trade scenarios as trade machine is in limbo....but it doesn't seem that crazy to me.
Something where the basis for a 3-team deal is....
Toronto gets: Horford
Houston gets: Smith
Atlanta gets: Asik and DeMar
Obviously Atlanta would probably get a pick or two (I'm thinking a 1st and 2nd, and one from each of Houston and Toronto), a young player like maybe Jones (which in that case I think Toronto would have to give up a 1st...hopefully that newly gained 2016 pick)....
Comment
-
Sam17 wrote: View PostWe'd have the new twin towers
It would give a team in Atlanta of....
Asik
Millsap
Korver
DeMar
Teague (assuming re-signed)
6th man: Williams
Now, that isn't spectacular, but it's a fairly exciting lineup, which also provides a rudimentary core even if they suck and end up in the high lottery. I mean, even if you threw Jabari Parker, and not Wiggins, into the SF spot, and moved Korver to the bench, that could be a pretty strong team pretty fast, with pieces that could be flipped to make improvements. And that's pretty idealistic, but given that no piece is one you ahve to be attached to, it makes it easy to make changes. Draft Randle and you have a solid big rotation, or you trade Millsap for a SF (or whatever...something like that). Draft Harrison/Smart and you can deal Teague. No piece is useless or worthless. *And that's not even counting any extra draft picks they get in dealing Smith and Horford.
Comment
-
planetmars wrote: View PostI have a feeling that Atlanta is doing what Milwaukee is doing.. ie, doing what they can to make the playoffs. Horford therefore is probably not tradeable, which sucks.
On my watch these are the teams that are legitimately tanking next season:
Boston, Philly, Utah, Sacramento and Orlando.
These are the teams that will probably be in the lottery:
Charlotte, Cleveland, Phoenix, LAL, Dallas, and Portland
These are the teams probably on the bubble:
Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta, Denver, NOLA, Minnesota, Toronto
For those in favour of tanking.. I think it's going to be really difficult to out lose some of these teams.
I don't entirely agree with your analysis. Let me break it down as follows:
First, let's define the terms, because people here use "tank" to mean different things and "retool" and "rebuild" are all ambiguous. So, for the purpose of this post:
Tank means "purposefully lose in order to get a better draft pick."
Retool means "trade assets for assets of approximately equivalent value in order to better compete in this year's playoffs."
Rebuild means "trade assets for assets of approximately equivalent value in order to better compete in future years."
So one can tank as part of a rebuild. And so:
DEFINITELY TANKING: Boston, Philly and Utah, who are all tanking in the proper sense of purposefully sacrificing one year in order to attempt a proper rebuild (e.g. taking on other teams unwanted contracts and giving away their own best assets in exchange for draft picks, young prospects and cap space).
Phoenix is also very likely tanking - their only major move was trading away Jared Dudley for Eric Bledsoe and they can still move Goran Dragic - but their rebuild is much less impressive than Bos/Phi/Utah because they have next to no assets that other teams value.
Orlando isn't exactly tanking. They'll be a lottery team, definitely, and they're not trying to make playoffs this year, but they're essentially finished the worst part of their rebuild; they've got a good young core (Affalo, Harris, Harkless, Oladipo, Doron Lamb, Andrew Nicholson) and they'll only have $21 million in salary commitments next year. They might trade Big Baby for some assets, because he's not really crucial to their longterm plan and somebody will want him, but for the most part they're going to use this year as a development year, and development years aren't quite the same thing as tanking.
TRYING TO MAKE PLAYOFFS:
As a general rule, if a team signs a relatively marquee free agent, they're aiming to compete. With that in mind...
The most interesting team here is Charlotte, who are clearly trying to make moves to get them into the playoffs (signing Al Jefferson, amnestying Tyrus Thomas). It's weird with 2014 being such a packed draft year, you'd think Charlotte would say "oh, what's one more year" but they have been so abysmally terrible for so long that it looks like management has gone all-in on win-now, or at least trying to win now. And here's the thing: they have a bunch of good young players (Kemba Walker, MKG, potentially Cody Zeller) and a few good vets (Jefferson, Ramon Sessions). They COULD make a run. It's not likely and they should really tank instead, but they're not going to do that, it looks like.
Cleveland has an excellent young core and a lot of assets they can move - they can trade any of Thompson, Varajao, Zeller or even Bennett if they think it gives them a significant upgrade, plus they still have a wealth of future picks from other teams and their own picks as well. Cleveland wants to make playoffs, they've been talking about it extensively.
Washington is clearly competing (and should make playoffs): they resigned Martell Webster, signed Eric Maynor and Garrett Temple to bolster their bench. They're solid.
Portland has quietly been having an excellent offseason, landing Thomas Robinson and Robin Lopez for basically next to nothing and signing Dorell Wright to a bargain contract. Portland collapsed last year because their bench was terrible and they've been addressing that. They might not make playoffs, but they're going to make a serious run.
Dallas signed Gal Mekel and Jose, so they have point guard locked down. Cuban has money to commit and he's apparently planning to roll the dice on Andrew Bynum. They're competing.
Atlanta is planning to compete: they re-signed Kyle Korver and signed Paul Millsap, and those aren't deals you cut if you're tanking. They're probably not going to bother re-signing Josh Smith and are resigned to a sign-and-trade, but if they get a good asset from Houston (Omer Asik, say) then they're not going to bother worrying, and the market for point guards has dried up in the last couple of days as most teams that were looking have covered their needs, so they should resign Jeff Teague.
Minnesota clearly figures they will be healthy this year, and they signed Kevin Martin and Chase Budlinger to that end (and still have room). They're competing.
Detroit is all-in on competing because you don't try to get Rudy Gay, even with a lowball offer, if you aren't trying to compete, and they were courting Josh Smith and Iguodala for the same reason. They've been bad for a while and want to make playoffs, they have lots of good young players (Monroe, Drummond, Knight, KCP).
Denver will almost certainly make playoffs so they're not even "trying to compete," they're just competing. NOLA is in the same boat.
ON THE BUBBLE:
The Lakers are here. They could make a run: after all, we're still talking about the Lakers here, and Pau is apparently healthy again. You can never count Kobe out, and Kobe doesn't want to tank because he's Kobe. If Kobe is healthy this year, they'll probably do their best to compete. If Kobe isn't... well, maybe they say "wait one year, Kobe, get better, and 2014-15 is going to be when we return to the throne. We'll sign LeBron, just watch."
Sacramento has been trying to make big moves in this offseason and hasn't been able to pull them off, and there's still some decent free agents to sign, plus they snagged Greivis Vasquez in the sign-and-trade and that was a decent return for Tyreke leaving. They haven't started tanking yet, but they could.
Milwaukee is just doing whatever the fuck, I don't know. OJ Mayo is a good player but do they think he helps them make playoffs? When they throw too much money at Brandon Jennings, is that their plan? Milwaukee isn't tanking; they're just sucking, but in the sort of way that's counterproductive and of which Toronto has far too much experience.
And, of course, there's us.
Analysis:
So, if Toronto decides on a serious tank/rebuild, who do we target? The answer is always "people who are willing to overpay you because they desperately want to make playoffs," and those teams come in two tiers: the truly desperate (Charlotte, Cleveland, Detroit, Dallas) and the less desperate but still willing (Portland, maybe LA, maybe Washington, maybe Sacramento). As a general rule, you aim for the first group.
Charlotte and Cleveland should be our primary targets: they both want to make playoffs, they both have a wealth of picks (Charlotte's are probably better), they can both afford to give us a good young prospect for the sake of a major upgrade (and maybe Aaron Gray - don't underrate the value of a solid defensive backup center on an expiring deal), and they both have expiring contracts they can deal to us (Charlotte has the best one in Ben Gordon's $12m deal). Also, Charlotte has a terrible front office, and that is good for us.
Detroit has expiring contracts and good young players, but is not pick-wealthy; they're an acceptable second option. Dallas can give us picks (not great ones, but 2014 at least) and expiring deals, and maybe even a promising (and cheap) young player like Ricky Ledo or Jae Crowder; they're a good target too.
EDIT: Detroit just signed Josh Smith, so we should strike them as a trade partner now.Last edited by magoon; Sat Jul 6, 2013, 03:08 PM.
Comment
-
white men can't jump wrote: View PostAnd I really don't think it's that crazy.
It would give a team in Atlanta of....
Asik
Millsap
Korver
DeMar
Teague (assuming re-signed)
6th man: Williams
Now, that isn't spectacular, but it's a fairly exciting lineup, which also provides a rudimentary core even if they suck and end up in the high lottery.
Comment
Comment