I agree with the general sentiment that there are either five or six locks, and then an additional group of about six more fringe playoff teams. And overall, there are a lot of teams that improved more than we did. But trying to figure out how exactly that translates in the standings is not easy. I'd say that there's more parity in the eastern conference than we've seen in recent years. Even the dregs like Charlotte have made significant improvements, and Washington may improve simply through having healthy players. Philly and Orlando will both be bad, but not historically bad like Charlotte has been the last couple years. All of which means that there are simply fewer easy wins to go around. Last year there was a 20-win spread between the sixth and twelfth place teams. This year we may see standings at the end of the season where there are only 10 wins or less separating sixth and twelfth. (Although some teams in the thick of it may elect to blow themselves up mid-season and angle for the draft, which would increase the spread.) If that is the case and the division is much tighter, then predicting who makes and who doesn't is really just a toss-up. That increased parity is the closest I'm going to come to any sort of prediction for next year.
I think I'm more of an optimist than most in that I actually like our core, but I can't bring myself to give the Raptors more than a 33% chance of making the playoffs this year, based on where guys are at now and what other teams have done. I can envision scenarios where everything goes right and the Raptors not only exceed the other fringe teams but actually climb into the 5 spot, but these are no more likely than scenarios where everything goes wrong (or right, depending on your enthusiasm for the draft) and the Raptors drop to the bottom of the conference.
I think I'm more of an optimist than most in that I actually like our core, but I can't bring myself to give the Raptors more than a 33% chance of making the playoffs this year, based on where guys are at now and what other teams have done. I can envision scenarios where everything goes right and the Raptors not only exceed the other fringe teams but actually climb into the 5 spot, but these are no more likely than scenarios where everything goes wrong (or right, depending on your enthusiasm for the draft) and the Raptors drop to the bottom of the conference.
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