The Raptors and the 2014 Draft

[blackjitsu]

Still not feeling Lavine. Let me know when he does something to make me pay attention. He's an athletic but lowly ranked SG recruit, who is playing mediocre. There's no evidence to believe he can play the 1.

[white men can't jump]

Doesn't really matter. You ALWAYS take the best player available. And you always look ahead at what this player could be in a couple of years. LaVine's upside is as big as any player in this draft.

Pretty sure if the Raps could re-do the 2011 draft all over again. Pretty sure they'd take Drummond over Ross. Even though they already have JV.

And LaVine is not really a pure PG. He's a combo guard.

But that's just not how things work. There are many factors involved.

-One is always need. Not every team will take BPA available because sometimes the talent difference between two players isn't big enough to take one over the other when one fills a need.
-Another factor is personality, which is tied to believing a player will fulfill potential. This is why many teams passed on Drummond. If the whole 2011 draft is re-done, Drummond doesn't even make it to 8, so the Raps would not get him.
-And honestly, another minor factor is positional certainty/uncertainty. The fact that Lavine is not a pure PG may actually work against him, especially when paired with other factors. If you can choose between a pure PG or Lavine with similar talent, why would you take Lavine? Same with a SG.
-Finally there's health, which can be a major factor. That's why a guy like Sullinger plummets. I don't think anyone who saw him play college ball is shocked by his NBA production. The question remains though, will he sustain it for 8-10 years? This doesn't appear likely to affect Lavine in any way though.

All these (and probably more) can affect draft stock, regardless of potential ceiling, because they will influence how execs see a guy's ability to fulfill that potential in the NBA, including trying to project him into a certain role/position.

[Joey]

But that's just not how things work. There are many factors involved.

-One is always need. Not every team will take BPA available because sometimes the talent difference between two players isn't big enough to take one over the other when one fills a need.
-Another factor is personality, which is tied to believing a player will fulfill potential. This is why many teams passed on Drummond. If the whole 2011 draft is re-done, Drummond doesn't even make it to 8, so the Raps would not get him.
-And honestly, another minor factor is positional certainty/uncertainty. The fact that Lavine is not a pure PG may actually work against him, especially when paired with other factors. If you can choose between a pure PG or Lavine with similar talent, why would you take Lavine? Same with a SG.
-Finally there's health, which can be a major factor. That's why a guy like Sullinger plummets. I don't think anyone who saw him play college ball is shocked by his NBA production. The question remains though, will he sustain it for 8-10 years? This doesn't appear likely to affect Lavine in any way though.

All these (and probably more) can affect draft stock, regardless of potential ceiling, because they will influence how execs see a guy's ability to fulfill that potential in the NBA, including trying to project him into a certain role/position.

Nailed it. What a great post.

[Chr1s1anL]

Kyle Anderson vs Utah
16 points 10 Rebs 5(3to)Ast
7/10 FG

Lavine vs Utah
4 points 3 Ast 2 Rebs 1/7 FG


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[The Great One]

Kyle Anderson vs Utah
16 points 10 Rebs 5(3to)Ast
7/10 FG

Lavine vs Utah
4 points 3 Ast 2 Rebs 1/7 FG


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My opinion hasn't changed. LaVine will be a much better pro than Anderson. And should be a top 10 pick if he declares this year. If not, MU better move up in the draft and take this guy.

[MACK11]

My opinion hasn't changed. LaVine will be a much better pro than Anderson. And should be a top 10 pick if he declares this year. If not, MU better move up in the draft and take this guy.

^^^ exactly, Anderson's game doesn't translate to the NBA as well as LaVine's! Anderson cannot guard anyone at the NBA level because of his foot speed and lack of lateral quicks

[octothorp]

But that's just not how things work. There are many factors involved.

-One is always need. Not every team will take BPA available because sometimes the talent difference between two players isn't big enough to take one over the other when one fills a need.
-Another factor is personality, which is tied to believing a player will fulfill potential. This is why many teams passed on Drummond. If the whole 2011 draft is re-done, Drummond doesn't even make it to 8, so the Raps would not get him.
-And honestly, another minor factor is positional certainty/uncertainty. The fact that Lavine is not a pure PG may actually work against him, especially when paired with other factors. If you can choose between a pure PG or Lavine with similar talent, why would you take Lavine? Same with a SG.
-Finally there's health, which can be a major factor. That's why a guy like Sullinger plummets. I don't think anyone who saw him play college ball is shocked by his NBA production. The question remains though, will he sustain it for 8-10 years? This doesn't appear likely to affect Lavine in any way though.

All these (and probably more) can affect draft stock, regardless of potential ceiling, because they will influence how execs see a guy's ability to fulfill that potential in the NBA, including trying to project him into a certain role/position.

In addition to all of this (which is very true and a good post), it's important to remember that teams don't necessarily rank players 1-30. Chad Ford has written extensively about how teams are increasingly using a 'tier' system, where they rank players into tiers, and then within each tier, rank players by their team need. There's no point in trying to figure out which of two equally skilled players is slightly superior, just so that you can make a pure BPA pick; yet teams are reluctant to pick a player from a lower tier just to accomodate team needs.

[Abused Raptors Fan]

I don't know if we draft a PG anyway. Not only is it the deepest position in the league, but even the top prospects struggle to adjust to the NBA game. As far as risk/reward relative to the quality of potential free agents, I think wed be better off drafting one of the numerous small forwards in this draft.

[white men can't jump]

In addition to all of this (which is very true and a good post), it's important to remember that teams don't necessarily rank players 1-30. Chad Ford has written extensively about how teams are increasingly using a 'tier' system, where they rank players into tiers, and then within each tier, rank players by their team need. There's no point in trying to figure out which of two equally skilled players is slightly superior, just so that you can make a pure BPA pick; yet teams are reluctant to pick a player from a lower tier just to accomodate team needs.

That makes total sense. That way you can always give yourself a chance to address team needs, but you should still separate talent levels to some degree...So then if all the players you'd ideally want in your top tier to fill your biggest needs are gone, you still take the BPA of what's left, if say one player doesn't really fill a need, but is obviously a tier above the rest in talent.

*And that's why even positional certainty makes a bit of a difference. If a guy might be a tweener, and thus difficult to project, you may instead try to fill your 2nd biggest need with a more sure fit if there's little or no gap in talent (as in, both guys are in the same tier and all the obvious fits for your prime need are gone).

[MACK11]

I feel like Jabari Parker is the Kyrie Irving of small forwards except he's got the post game instead of handles. And for some reason, Wiggins reminds me of a less agressive Paul George

[BigCamB]

Doug McDermott is killing it. 39 pts on 13/17. Looks like a lock for the Wooden Award this year. People thought he may struggle a bit more given Creighton changed to a stronger conference, but he's better than ever. Hope he has lots of success in the league.

[blackjitsu]

Doug McDermott is killing it. 39 pts on 13/17. Looks like a lock for the Wooden Award this year. People thought he may struggle a bit more given Creighton changed to a stronger conference, but he's better than ever. Hope he has lots of success in the league.

Really depends on if he can defend the 3 or 4 at the next level. If he can he should have a solid, long career.

[Chr1s1anL]

22 Pts, 11 Assist, 7 Rebs
http://youtu.be/bzL5qVYfOx8


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[stretch]

Still not feeling Lavine. Let me know when he does something to make me pay attention. He's an athletic but lowly ranked SG recruit, who is playing mediocre. There's no evidence to believe he can play the 1.

Lavine played point guard in high school and will play point guard again at the next level. He's playing on team with Kyle Anderson, who may be listed as a guard/forward but is the main ball handler, rightfully so, for the Bruins when he is on the floor. The coach's son, Bryce Alford, is also getting a lot of minutes at pg.

Westbrook and Holiday are two ex UCLA guards who didn't play much at the point in college.

[grindhouse]

^^^ exactly, Anderson's game doesn't translate to the NBA as well as LaVine's! Anderson cannot guard anyone at the NBA level because of his foot speed and lack of lateral quicks

i think the only reason u guys say that is cause u see the next west brook. speed is not that much of a problem if he can cut angles and if we were to take anderson ross could guard the point. big bodys take up space making less spacing for the other team. just look at dallas. none of those guys are good defenders but they eat space.