Jack Armstrong: Gay/DD are NOT selfish players

[Axel]

First Bold - Are you telling me that you will be able to build one through tanking in the near future?? Wouldn't you need to start somewhere? Does anyone remember the year Bosh left? We were in eighth and Chicago came back and took it by 1/2 a game because Bosh was out?? Why don't you think we can build on a playoff team? Keep in mind i never said we should re-sign Lowry or Gay. I'm on a wait and see.

Second bold - I'm not saying its imposssible BUT I think its VERY unlikely to be getting multiple first round picks in 2014

Third bold - Every GM wants to build a better team. My question is HOW do you know the players you draft will be MORE talented than the players you've given up?? How do you know you won't draft a BUST? How do you know if it fits better if they haven't even played a game together? How do you know Ross will even be a better player than Derozan? This isn't fantasy basketball.....

I think this is the only thing you've said in this thread that I agree with, yet I am still committed to the change.

This team isn't very good. We are mediocre at best. Brooklyn will eventually get going (cohesion takes time) because they have the most talent and will win the division. That leaves the Raps fighting for a play-off appearance, which is possible with their current defence and a presume offensive improvement once shots start falling. But then what?

If the shots start to fall, and the defence is maintained, we are still a small window non-contending playoff team. I say small window because Gay, Lowry, Amir, Hansbrough are all in their prime, that's 4 of our top 8 rotation. If we re-sign Gay and Lowry, we are now a luxury tax team that has, realistically at best, a 3 year window of playoffs, likely in the 4-7 seed range, before Gay, Lowry, Amir and Hansbrough start to decline. A mid-round draft pick over the next few years isn't likely to be a player who will be able to take over the role's of Gay & Lowry. MU is a great drafter, but I don't think it is realistic to expect that much from a low pick. Once the window closes, we are going to start losing again anyway and will have to make moves to kick-start the franchise (likely involving a couple of trips to the lottery).

If Gay and Lowry walk, then we have not maximized our assets (letting them walk for nothing) and are left replacing 2/5s of our starting line-up. We are unlikely to find great replacements, so will likely end up in the lottery in the next 2 years anyway, but too late to capitalize on this year's elite crop.

The big question, is that good enough? Is 3 years of playoff ball where we might be able to make the 2nd round good enough? I say no, and I think TL agrees when he says "we are here to win Championships".

I fully support destructing this roster for a few simple reasons.
#1 - I want to compete for Championships. It is really hard to win one, but on any given season, up to 8-10 teams feel like they have a chance. The Raps have never been that team. I'm a Ravens fan in NFL, and I can say that the feeling of complete faith in your team to compete every year is absolutely glorious.
#2 - This team was constructed by Bryan Colangelo with no apparent concern for how they would fit on the court. No outside shooting, no efficiency, no cap flexibility. Colangelo was trying to move Bargnani, which is really the only true move MU has made, so this team is still basically BC's team.
#3 - this draft is epically talented. The top 5 of 2013 would have been drafted late in the 2014 draft (I can't remember which talking head made this comment a couple of days ago, it might have been Zach Lowe or Eric Koreen). For a draft to be so substantially better than the next/previous, is very rare. You need to strike the iron while it's hot. It may never be hotter than 2014. The Raps pick will land us a player who will very likely be an all-star or at least produce like one (all-stars are going to be harder to obtain with such a talent influx). How many Raps can we honestly say that about? Maybe JV. A top 6 pick this year is better than the #1 pick most years. Our goal shouldn't be to get the 1st pick and take Wiggins (that'd be nice but), we should simply focus on drafting our future star. Aaron Gordon, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum are the names you hear after Wiggins, Randle, Parker and all 3 would be great choices.

Our future can be great, truely great. But we need a real star player, not just star salaries. 2014 draft is our best chance of landing an elite player. Our future picks would be to supplement that. 2015 we have our own, which if we do this properly, should be in the 7-13 range. 2016 we have our own and the worst of NYK/Den. By that time, both of those picks are likely to not be in the lottery or at the very least late (12+). New York or Denver will probably falter, but to trust them both to is a bit naive. Den holds the cards since they get to swap the pick with NY at their discretion, we get whatever is leftover. A nice asset, but not something we can count on to be a game changer.

I've said it once, and I'll say it again. To Paraphrase LL Cool J:
"Don't call it a rebuild, we've been building for years."

Get your hardhat on and strap in, it's going to be hard work but worth it in the end.

[gametime]

Obviously I'm hoping this strategy winds up with the Raptors getting a top-3 pick in the 2014 draft and that whoever the Raps draft fulfills his potential to the max. However, by taking a step back and rebuilding the team efficiently and effectively (ie: a clear strategy that is stuck to, better fit of talent, no stupid $$$ moves, always improving the baseline talent level), the whole point is that the GM no longer needs to rely on all-or-nothing moves to be successful.

Well thoughts out points... Let's just hope it comes to fruition. Especially landing a top 3 pick. Rebuilding is a whole lot easier when you have a legit stud that's developed here and is the new face of a consistent playoff culture in Toronto.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

If that's the case I apologize. Its hard to keep up with all of these tanking strategies.

Here is a link to my long-winded explanation of what my personal "tank" strategy is: http://www.raptorsrepublic.com/forum...l=1#post247285

jimmie wrote something similar above, about 'tanking' (meaning losing more games this season to increase # Ping-Pong balls attached to Raptors' own 1st round draft pick in 2014) actually being a by-product of a proper rebuild/retool, as opposed to being the strategy unto itself. The goal is to build a good team the right way, in a manner that sets the team up for sustainable success (ie: not the BC way, which this team still is).

- more talent
- better fit
- no financial handcuffs

[special1]

No, I speak on behalf of myself. You argue with me about "my agenda", but the claims you're making about what my 'tanking' strategy entail are nowhere close to the actual strategy I'm proposing.

If that's the case I apologize. Its hard to keep up with all of these tanking strategies.

[jimmie]

No, I speak on behalf of myself. You argue with me about "my agenda", but the claims you're making about what my 'tanking' strategy entail are nowhere close to the actual strategy I'm proposing.

Cripes. Motion to strike the term "tank" from further usage.

I don't speak for everyone, either, but from actually reading what others have written, it's pretty clear that no one -- NOT ONE PERSON -- is advocating for losing on purpose. What it boils down to is:

1. Do you think this team, as constructed, is good enough to compete for an NBA championship (this year, next year, the year after -- name your window)?

If your answer to this question is "yes", then you're just delusional. If your answer is "no, I see some decent players, but I admit they will likely never get to the Finals as a unit", or "no, they have some decent players, but no true elite star that history tells us is necessary to win a 'ship", then your next question is:

2. Are MAJOR or MINOR changes needed to turn this into a team that IS good enough to compete for an NBA championship?

And then you're into rebuilding, one way or another, whether you admit it or not. Most of those who are being labelled "pro tankers" think major changes are needed, vs. minor ones. If you're saying only minor changes are needed to take this team to the promised land, you should step up and let us know how you think we can turn this current roster into a championship-calibre roster without using a lot of our assets in the process. And if we move a lot of our assets, guess what -- we're highly likely to lose more games in the short term. Which means a better chance at the lottery and an elite draft talent. "Tanking" with this team isn't even a 'strategy' -- it's just a useful by-product of making any roster moves at all with the objective of eventually making this team a contender. Unless you're talking about moving a Q. Acy or other 'spare parts' for that missing elite talent -- and then you're just delusional.

[special1]

I suppose it's a matter of perspective.

Being reminded that there are worse teams in the league doesn't make me feel better about the Raptors, just as seeing homeless people under the Gardiner doesn't make me feel better about the 25 years of mortgage payments I have left

Hahahaha Awesome! So i guess it won't make you feel better that i have 27 years of mortgate payments left....lol

[CalgaryRapsFan]

OH please....the one thing i got from our "discussion" was that pro-tankers dont even agree on what their definition of "tanking" is. You ask 10 pro-tankers and you get 5 different definitions. Are you now speaking on behalf of all pro-tankers??

No, I speak on behalf of myself. You argue with me about "my agenda", but the claims you're making about what my 'tanking' strategy entail are nowhere close to the actual strategy I'm proposing.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

To be honest, I have no idea what your talking about in the first paragraph.....I don't see where i was being hypocritical. I'm assuming you responded to the wrong post. However, I may be wrong.

What I said was regarding THIS team and the mistakes of the PAST and that we should move on from them. Different team. Different Coach. Different GM. How is that hypocritial? Do you think MU will make the same mistakes as BC?? I seriously doubt it. He has already shown a different (patient) approach. Actually, your rush to rebuild (because i think you would find out very quickly that it is a lot harder to build a team) reminds me of BC. Always iching to do something without knowing what you actually have. You were calling for a rebuild BEFORE the season began. Hi Bryan Collangelo.....I see you found a job as a super moderator on RR. lol

My bad, I was replying to psrs1's comment, then you replied to my reply. I saw the "1" and got you two mixed up. My point remains though, that you took my response out of context, because you didn't pay attention to what I was referring to.

Before the season began, I was calling for a retool. If you look at the original tank/tweak thread that got bumped today, you'll notice I purposefully didn't vote because I felt a 'retool & see' approach was the best one for the team to take in the offseason. Specifically, I was calling for DeRozan to be traded for a traditional PF (ie: S&T for Milsap). I thought a better PF would take pressure off Valanciunas and give another option to flow the offense through, while relegating Amir to 3rd big status (where I think he'd thrive). I also thought adding Fields or Ross to the starting lineup would create better balance for that lineup, replacing a redundant scorer with a good glue/defense guy. Given the team's financial limitations, yet wanting to give a majority of the core a chance before blowing it up completely, I felt that a retooling was the best approach. The team didn't take that approach and it looks like this team is destined to be a playoff bubble team at best, so I've moved into the blow-it-up camp.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

First Bold - Are you telling me that you will be able to build one through tanking in the near future?? Wouldn't you need to start somewhere? Does anyone remember the year Bosh left? We were in eighth and Chicago came back and took it by 1/2 a game because Bosh was out?? Why don't you think we can build on a playoff team? Keep in mind i never said we should re-sign Lowry or Gay. I'm on a wait and see.

Second bold - I'm not saying its imposssible BUT I think its VERY unlikely to be getting multiple first round picks in 2014

Third bold - Every GM wants to build a better team. My question is HOW do you know the players you draft will be MORE talented than the players you've given up?? How do you know you won't draft a BUST? How do you know if it fits better if they haven't even played a game together? How do you know Ross will even be a better player than Derozan? This isn't fantasy basketball.....

My 'tanking' strategy includes many parts and doesn't hinge on a single draft choice. The bottom line is that this team is not good. So yes, I would rather take a chance on building a team via the method that has historically/consistently proven to be the most effective method - the draft.

[Nilanka]

Bryan Colangelo attempted "rebuilds" by trading shit for shit.

Rebuilding through the draft is a completely different ball game.

Lumping them together and calling it "rebuilding" isn't accurate.

[special1]

The bolded part shows that you haven't bothered to read any posts by pro-tankers, to understand what the strategy actually entails. You and I had a pretty reasonable discussion about this just a couple weeks ago, when I explained how my "tanking" strategy included several parts, not simply hoping for more Ping-Pong balls.

If you want to continue arguing based on your personal beliefs of what "tanking" is, rather than actually care to educate yourself about the thorough strategy being promoted by the pro-tank posters, that's fine. You have that right. Just don't bash the pro-tanker strategy then, because it's completely different than what your personal definition of "tanking" is.

OH please....the one thing i got from our "discussion" was that pro-tankers dont even agree on what their definition of "tanking" is. You ask 10 pro-tankers and you get 5 different definitions. Are you now speaking on behalf of all pro-tankers??

[special1]

You're so hypocritical! lol

My response was to your comment about "ask Washington how their rebuild is working for them?" (I'm paraphrasing). You point to another team that has done a pretty good job with their rebuild through the draft (Wall, Beals, Porter) but is struggling early this season (Okafor injury was big loss for them), as reason why Toronto should not follow a similar path.

First, you failed to acknowledge the teams that have been (historically) and are currently successful, all thanks to a methodical strategy of building through the draft. Evidence exists to support the claim that no other method has resulted to success (ie: NBA Championships) as building through the draft, yet you seem willing to write-off this approach because Washington is struggling. San Antonio still looks good. OKC is doing ok. The Bulls have Rose back and are expected to do well. Several other bad teams are heading in the right direction (Cleveland, Orlando, Charlotte, New Orleans, etc...). Picking one random example to support your claim is folly.

Second, I was pointing out to a recent example of the very same Raptors following the very same strategy you're proposing, under the very same set of circumstances that you're pointing out as existing within Eastern Conference and Atlantic Division. Yet, because it goes against your argument, you want to just write-off history an meaningless. The saying goes that if you ignore history, you're doomed to repeat it. If you want to repeat the past 7 years, go right ahead.

I've NEVER claimed that my preferred strategy of rebuilding will be successful. I only claim that I don't view the ceiling of this current roster to be anything more than 1st round playoff fodder for truly good teams. I also point out the fact that this team is capped-out, likely to become a luxury tax is Lowry is re-signed (and if Gay chooses to stay). Therefore, there is no opportunity for this team to improve, unless via trade. Therefore, I do believe that they may as well start rebuilding/retooling now (ie: trades), to simultaneously take advantage of a loaded draft, especially if they're going to have to trade to improve at some point in the next year anyway.

To be honest, I have no idea what your talking about in the first paragraph.....I don't see where i was being hypocritical. I'm assuming you responded to the wrong post. However, I may be wrong.

What I said was regarding THIS team and the mistakes of the PAST and that we should move on from them. Different team. Different Coach. Different GM. How is that hypocritial? Do you think MU will make the same mistakes as BC?? I seriously doubt it. He has already shown a different (patient) approach. Actually, your rush to rebuild (because i think you would find out very quickly that it is a lot harder to build a team) reminds me of BC. Always itching to do something without knowing what you actually have. You were calling for a rebuild BEFORE the season began. Hi Bryan Collangelo.....I see you found a job as a super moderator on RR. lol

[mcHAPPY]

First Bold - Are you telling me that you will be able to build one through tanking in the near future?? Wouldn't you need to start somewhere? Does anyone remember the year Bosh left? We were in eighth and Chicago came back and took it by 1/2 a game because Bosh was out?? Why don't you think we can build on a playoff team? Keep in mind i never said we should re-sign Lowry or Gay. I'm on a wait and see.

Second bold - I'm not saying its imposssible BUT I think its VERY unlikely to be getting multiple first round picks in 2014

Third bold - Every GM wants to build a better team. My question is HOW do you know the players you draft will be MORE talented than the players you've given up?? How do you know you won't draft a BUST? How do you know if it fits better if they haven't even played a game together? How do you know Ross will even be a better player than Derozan? This isn't fantasy basketball.....

Every strategy has unknowns.

How do you know Rudy and Lowry resign?
How do you know the Raptors will be able to find free agents that are better than any player who leaves?
How do you know the current players are not going to regress or plateau?


Here is what we do know: you don't win without elite talent and the best way for the Raptors to get it, given their salary situation and the CBA combined with current trade assets, is to draft it. Why is drafting it the best? Because you're going to have the option of keeping the talent for 8-9 years regardless of salary cap thanks to Bird Rights OR you'll have valuable rookie contract players which teams covet when trading away star players.

[Nilanka]

Third bold - Every GM wants to build a better team. My question is HOW do you know the players you draft will be MORE talented than the players you've given up?? How do you know you won't draft a BUST? How do you know if it fits better if they haven't even played a game together? How do you know Ross will even be a better player than Derozan? This isn't fantasy basketball.....

You prefer the "wait and see" approach. Without franchise talent, this approach has very little chance of winning a title.

Others prefer the "tank and see" approach. While acquiring pick(s), this approach is simply the foundation for what a championship team is built on.

[special1]

Are you telling me that you honestly believe this current Raptors team will be a perennial deep playoff team, consistently achieving at least the 2nd round?
Once again, you are stuck on the word "tank" and not paying attention to what "my agenda" has included in multiple posts in multiple threads.

MY AGENDA
- trade expensive/expiring/unwanted contracts for young prospects, expiring contracts and draft picks
- the team will likely become worse this season as a result of the trade, resulting in more Ping-Pong balls to maximize the Raptors' own draft positioning
- build through the draft, including multiple 1st round picks in 2014
- use new cap space to pursue young, talented free agents in the upcoming offseason, to build a team that fits together better than the current one, building around a core of Valanciunas, Ross, whatever worthwhile players are acquired in trade (for Gay, Lowry, DeRozan, Novak, Hansborough, Fields and possibly even Johnson), and 2014 draft picks

My agenda is all about building a better team, which is more talented, fits together better, is more cost-effective, has a higher ceiling and is built for more sustainable success (this takes age, contract status/amount/length, etc... into account).

First Bold - Are you telling me that you will be able to build one through tanking in the near future?? Wouldn't you need to start somewhere? Does anyone remember the year Bosh left? We were in eighth and Chicago came back and took it by 1/2 a game because Bosh was out?? Why don't you think we can build on a playoff team? Keep in mind i never said we should re-sign Lowry or Gay. I'm on a wait and see.

Second bold - I'm not saying its imposssible BUT I think its VERY unlikely to be getting multiple first round picks in 2014

Third bold - Every GM wants to build a better team. My question is HOW do you know the players you draft will be MORE talented than the players you've given up?? How do you know you won't draft a BUST? How do you know if it fits better if they haven't even played a game together? How do you know Ross will even be a better player than Derozan? This isn't fantasy basketball.....