What's your price on Amir?

[IROR]

This is a great question... So hard to determine value on a player like Amir. The only teams I could see giving up a first rounder (not going to research pick possession) are OKC and Miami because both are thin up front and in this draft year that might even be a stretch.

I would love to have him stay, but will his value get any higher? Doubt it. At the same time tough, if he maintains his level of playing into next season, he could be more valuable as an expiring UFA.

One thing is for sure- most raps fans would hate to see him go..

[themasao]

As opposed to what plan that doesn't involve luck?

Where can I get me some press credentials? Doesn't seem to take much in the way of smarts or qualifications.

I'd imagine meriting press credentials would start with refraining from making snide, underhanded comments in rational discussions.

[mcHAPPY]

This is a great question... So hard to determine value on a player like Amir. The only teams I could see giving up a first rounder (not going to research pick possession) are OKC and Miami because both are thin up front and in this draft year that might even be a stretch.

I would love to have him stay, but will his value get any higher? Doubt it. At the same time tough, if he maintains his level of playing into next season, he could be more valuable as an expiring UFA.

One thing is for sure- most raps fans would hate to see him go..

Absolutely agree here.

One thing I don't get though from people: why not trade him and go after him hard in free agency in 18 months?

Seems like the best of both worlds.

[themasao]

Fair enough in that draft class .. but how about much more recent. Id say of last year's draft, Id say that 3 of the 5 players from 6 to 10 are ALREADY better than Amir - Lillard, Barnes and Drummond (arguably quite a bit better). The jury is out on TR (although right now I think Id take his future over Amir's) and Rivers stinks. That was in a weak draft.
So - not as much of a crapshoot as you suggest ..

See you're still valuing potential into your measurement of whether guys like Barnes and Drummond are better players than Amir.

It's question begging to say that you'd rather have them. We know you'd rather have them: they are young prospects and you (and many others on the forum) value young prospects in virtue of the fact that they are young and have potential.

But we know that potential fails to develop more often than not. Neither Barnes nor Drummond are nearly as good (statistically or otherwise) as Amir is TODAY. Will they become good players? Probably. Better than Amir? Maybe. But I'd say the chance is pretty much consistent with what Enlightenment and I have been saying all along.

Players in the 5 - 15 range (8 - 18), have about a 15% chance of being above league average. Those are the numbers -- they do not lie.

[IROR]

Absolutely agree here.

One thing I don't get though from people: why not trade him and go after him hard in free agency in 18 months?

Seems like the best of both worlds.

The thought hadn't crossed my mind, but he would come back to TO in a heartbeat. Brilliant ok we can trade him now

[mountio]

See you're still valuing potential into your measurement of whether guys like Barnes and Drummond are better players than Amir.

It's question begging to say that you'd rather have them. We know you'd rather have them: they are young prospects and you (and many others on the forum) value young prospects in virtue of the fact that they are young and have potential.

But we know that potential fails to develop more often than not. Neither Barnes nor Drummond are nearly as good (statistically or otherwise) as Amir is TODAY. Will they become good players? Probably. Better than Amir? Maybe. But I'd say the chance is pretty much consistent with what Enlightenment and I have been saying all along.

Players in the 5 - 15 range (8 - 18), have about a 15% chance of being above league average. Those are the numbers -- they do not lie.

Potential is part of it .. but lets call a spade a spade, Drummond and Lillard for sure are WAY better than Amir is TODAY. Barnes is maybe arguable .. but 95%+ of people would project him to be better than Amir by the end of his career (if not already or certainly in the next year or two). As an independent view, look to ESPN rank. Lillard - 30, Drummond, 54 and Barnes 76 and Amir ..... 165 (5th of the raps .. which is about right). Its not like those guys beat him out by a hair - its not even close.

When did Amir become anything other than a great glue guy who is our 4th/5th best player? Did I miss something? Ya, hes had a string of VERY nice games .. I agree, but lets not get ahead of ourselves.

Is Amir above a league average player now? Id say yes, but its not overwhelmingly obvious.

Im not arguing with your line of reasoning, you just seem to be way, way, way overvaluing a 4th-5th best player on a pretty average team.

[enlightenment]

Im not arguing with your line of reasoning, you just seem to be way, way, way overvaluing a 4th-5th best player on a pretty average team.

Actually, the guy accounts for most of our wins. I would argue he has the biggest impact (which is shown in his +/-, and how all our best lineups include Amir) on this team. Why then refer to him as only the 4th-5th best player? Cause others are putting up the basic stats? Like PPG?

Amir > Lowry and Val

Derozan is the only one I would rank higher than Amir on this team, and that has to do with his trajectory of a player right now.

[IROR]

Amir might be better than Lowry all things considered but ... What was this thread about again... Lowry has higher trade value than Amir by quite a bit. I would argue that Lowry is a better player but less valuable to this team (than Amir) as constructed.

[IROR]

I would also like to point out that no team values Amir as much as the raptors. So if you actually think the raps get a lotto pick in any draft for Amir Johnson you are going to be disappointed. He would probably return less than what a lot of fans would expect and want for such a great raptor.

[mountio]

Actually, the guy accounts for most of our wins. I would argue he has the biggest impact (which is shown in his +/-, and how all our best lineups include Amir) on this team. Why then refer to him as only the 4th-5th best player? Cause others are putting up the basic stats? Like PPG?

Amir > Lowry and Val

Derozan is the only one I would rank higher than Amir on this team, and that has to do with his trajectory of a player right now.

I love these arguments by people who have read and few advanced stats and think they are the be all and end all .. (Im paraphrasing) .. "if you only understood advanced stats and were focused on such simpleton stats as PPG, you would understand Amir's impact"

Just because advanced stats are called "win shares" or "wins produced" doesnt mean they actually have any more impact on winning than points, assists, PER or any other variety of stats.

#NBARank (which by the way Im pretty sure if compiled by people who have a strong understanding of advanced and regular
stats and everything else that it takes to be a good player) have him ranked 5th on our team (4th once Gay was gone).

If Amir is so valuable to winning, how come the team has stunk the last few years despite him "accounting" for most of our wins? He performs well in 5 man units and has strong +- because he is good in short spurts and over the years has put up very good numbers in limited minutes (in part due to his fouling issues). In a more advanced role? I just dont think hed cut it. The question is whether hes the 4th/5th best player on a shitty team (us) or the 4th/5th best player on a great team (OKC/Miami). To his credit, I think he can be both (which I cant say about all the raptors, I agree with you there).

The crazy thing is .. I like Amir! I think hes a really good glue guy and love all the intangibles he brings and the off the court stuff. But to suggest hes as valuable as many people have been on this board just seems way, way off.

[Superjudge]

Anyone dragging out ESPN player rankings to tech me the value of a player I am actually watching, with my own eyes, can go fly a kite.

Good lord.


As for trading him then signing him in a year, if he's down, hell ya, that can work....er.... can it?

[mountio]

Amir might be better than Lowry all things considered but ... What was this thread about again... Lowry has higher trade value than Amir by quite a bit. I would argue that Lowry is a better player but less valuable to this team (than Amir) as constructed.

I actually agree with this too. The point is, teams look at Lowry and say .. with him, we can get over the hump. Teams look at amir and say - great guy, but doesnt fundamentally change what we do .. hes just a slightly better version of whoever our garbage collector is today.

And, as you say, isnt that the whole point of the thread?

[Superjudge]

The crazy thing is .. I like Amir! I think hes a really good glue guy and love all the intangibles he brings and the off the court stuff. But to suggest hes as valuable as many people have been on this board just seems way, way off.

Your inability, or refusal, whichever it is, to acknowledge just how important the shit you just said you liked about him are when building a winner is pretty baffling to me. especially in a market like Toronto.

[mountio]

Anyone dragging out ESPN player rankings to tech me the value of a player I am actually watching, with my own eyes, can go fly a kite.

Good lord.


As for trading him then signing him in a year, if he's down, hell ya, that can work....er.... can it?

Id say the same thing .. anyone who blue skies their own players and isnt willing to look at them objectively through the eyes of GMs from another team can ... go fly a kite.

If you want to value a guy based on hyperbole from hometown fans, thats your prerogative, but dont suggest to me that we can get a top ten pick for a guy when the rest of the league doesnt believe its true.

[Superjudge]

I actually agree with this too. The point is, teams look at Lowry and say .. with him, we can get over the hump. Teams look at amir and say - great guy, but doesnt fundamentally change what we do .. hes just a slightly better version of whoever our garbage collector is today.

And, as you say, isnt that the whole point of the thread?

What was Horace grant to Chicago?