Screw Tanking

[Evia99]

Unless DeMar becomes an All-Star (very possible). Unless Ross continues to improve (teams are already very interested in him). There are always possibilities.

fair enough. I guess what im saying is that at this point I cant see anyone parting with a top ten pick for derozan or ross.
JV would make people consider in my opinion.

[Machine]

You didnt even bring up any of my points. Are you just talking to yourself? You are assuming that your plan is the only way to a championship. Clearly I want to win a championship, we just have different plans of getting there. You want to draft, great we can draft well without tanking.

My main point is the value of each player increases with each win. Thus the value of the team as a whole increases, meaning we can net real talent through FA, trade, or trading for a higher draft pick using the inflated value of a player on a winning team.

im not assuming my plan is the only way to a championship, but a few posts ago you were super excited about the tank not happening so we could get a division championship banner... we shouldn't even be putting those in the rafters in my opinion

[Nilanka]

im not assuming my plan is the only way to a championship, but a few posts ago you were super excited about the tank not happening so we could get a division championship banner... we shouldn't even be putting those in the rafters in my opinion

I agree on not putting any weight on the division banner. I can't really call it an accomplishment.

"We're the best team of all the crappy teams in the North East region" :|

[Axel]

These are very similar arguments that many here were making in the offseason as to why the Raps should tank. Many expected every team in the East, outside of Boston, Philly and Orlando, to improve to the point of making the Raps irrelevant. There were arguments made for Milwaukee, Detroit, Cleveland, Charlotte, and Washington, while Brooklyn, NYK, and Chicago were supposed locks for the playoffs and even the 3-5 seeds. Things don't look the same now though. Realistically, you're predictions for team improvement as a result of acquiring draft picks are no more valid than your prediction that this team cannot improve as is, let alone with any other moves that MU could make. Seriously, if there is no way to make this team better without going to the draft, than Masai would already be well on his way to securing a high lottery pick. But, alas, he is not.

The off-season argument has stayed basically the same. The Raps aren't contenders now and with their current roster, don't look poised to make any leap into contender status. That has always been the foundation of the tank argument. Add in the bonus of this draft year being so strong, the timing was right. Nothing about Detroit, Cleveland, etc changes any of that.

The Raps were considered to be in the bubble with several teams, Washington, Cleveland, Detroit, Charlotte, and Milwaukee. Add a top 10 pick to any of those teams and they are quite likely better than the Raps next season if the Raps only get a pick in the low 20s.

To the bold, that is a very close minded view of things. Masai is at the mercy of the market. He can try his best, but at the end of the day, the market will largely determine what he is able to do.

At the end of the season, if the Raps win the division (not impressive) and get the 22nd pick, can you honestly say that the Raps are better off than if they had made the deal with the Knicks without the pick (Felton and Hardaway Jr for Lowry)? Maybe Masai got too cute and missed an opportunity to get this team in position to get a top 5 pick and some good young players (Felton is a bum who I would have waived if necessary).

[Burnit482]

Interesting thoughts here... Im not going to speculate our record at ASB but say around that time we can't sign lowry and obviously Masai is gunna trade him if this is the case. What would you say to this.

Lowry - Monroe. + a little something i don't know what protected pick in some year
one of our bigs (hansborough?) for not a good but an ok pg like Miller for the year.
Offseason JV- Exum/Smart/Lavine (obviously i don't know if this is possible but we could throw in a novak or hansborough as a kicker i dunno.)
I believe this would get us a step closer.. as much as i love JV i think this makes us a better ball club and closer to that championship.

Edit: Also this would lower our pick a little during end of season having no real PG and a lot of bigmen. (we could ship one out in a deal as well.) We would still make playoffs probably, dunno what seed but our pick would be around 20 i would guess. Maybe also get to keep that pick as well.

Just some thoughts.

[Scraptor]

How are the Raps going to continue to improve? By paying Lowry for a half season stretch? By cheering for Demar harder? JV and Ross will improve and Patrick Patterson might be a worthy reclamation project, but we don't have a ceiling too much higher with the current group.

Axel makes excellent points. Ceiling is everything, and ours is limited.

Look at Denver. Are they in no man's land? I would say yes. We could win 50 games this year and I'd say our chances of winning a championship are less than 5%. What happens when one of the tankers becomes the next OKC? We get leapfrogged again.

MU wanted to have his cake and eat it too, but trying to squeeze value out of the assets BC left him was penny-wise and pound-foolish. I'm always going to cheer for the squad, but squandering the chance to add another high-ceiling star next to Val is just the latest blown opportunity for this franchise.

Embracing win-now is rationalizing the fact that we really don't have a choice. Just because it's probably too late to take the right course doesn't increase the merit of the alternative.

I'd love for MU to prove me wrong, but I've resigned myself to embracing the wins while they come, even as I accept how limited our ceiling is come playoff time.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Axel makes excellent points. Ceiling is everything, and ours is limited.

Look at Denver. Are they in no man's land? I would say yes. We could win 50 games this year and I'd say our chances of winning a championship are less than 5%. What happens when one of the tankers becomes the next OKC? We get leapfrogged again.

MU wanted to have his cake and eat it too, but trying to squeeze value out of the assets BC left him was penny-wise and pound-foolish. I'm always going to cheer for the squad, but squandering the chance to add another high-ceiling star next to Val is just the latest blown opportunity for this franchise.

Embracing win-now is rationalizing the fact that we really don't have a choice. Just because it's probably too late to take the right course doesn't increase the merit of the alternative.

I'd love for MU to prove me wrong, but I've resigned myself to embracing the wins while they come, even as I accept how limited our ceiling is come playoff time.

That was always the risk with the "wait and see" approach.

I really do hope this team proves the 'pro tankers' wrong, since little choice remains (at least during the season).

As others have said, this season is eerily similar to the 2006-07 season. The critical difference between then and now, will be what MU does in the offseason. BC changed course from rebuilding to going all-in, because he gave too much weight to the division championship. Thankfully, I don't see MU making the same mistake, especially given his 5-year mandate (only in year 1) and the organization desire for much greater achievements in a sustainable manner.

[S.R.]

Axel makes excellent points. Ceiling is everything, and ours is limited.

Look at Denver. Are they in no man's land? I would say yes. We could win 50 games this year and I'd say our chances of winning a championship are less than 5%. What happens when one of the tankers becomes the next OKC? We get leapfrogged again.

MU wanted to have his cake and eat it too, but trying to squeeze value out of the assets BC left him was penny-wise and pound-foolish. I'm always going to cheer for the squad, but squandering the chance to add another high-ceiling star next to Val is just the latest blown opportunity for this franchise.

Embracing win-now is rationalizing the fact that we really don't have a choice. Just because it's probably too late to take the right course doesn't increase the merit of the alternative.

I'd love for MU to prove me wrong, but I've resigned myself to embracing the wins while they come, even as I accept how limited our ceiling is come playoff time.

Denver's got/had a lower ceiling for internal development and higher salary commitments in the future. I agree that this team isn't championship-ready, but there's so much room for internal growth - JV and Ross are extremely raw, DD and Amir are still developing, PatPat looks like he's got room to grow, and this is probably Lowry's peak. There's that and the roster/cap flexibility MU has moving forward.

This is not like moving forward with a capped out, mature roster with a 50 win ceiling. Not at all.

[p00ka]

Denver's got/had a lower ceiling for internal development and higher salary commitments in the future. I agree that this team isn't championship-ready, but there's so much room for internal growth - JV and Ross are extremely raw, DD and Amir are still developing, PatPat looks like he's got room to grow, and this is probably Lowry's peak. There's that and the roster/cap flexibility MU has moving forward.

This is not like moving forward with a capped out, mature roster with a 50 win ceiling. Not at all.

Exactly. All this certainty talk of ceiling is getting laughable, along with the certainty talk of what teams are going to leap over us with an unknown, unproven draft pick. Opinions are fine. We all have them, but opinions of future predictions ........... some people need to start getting a grasp of, and gain some appreciation of, what they don't know of the future, which is a hell of a lot more than they seem to realize. The thing is, how does one have a reasonable discussion about prospects for this team, when people are SURE they know the future? It's just the same old tank/no-tank arguments that have been going on for months, in dozens of threads, sheeeesh.

For those that do know the future, and see it as bleak:

- the tank is off. Get over it, and move on
- you know sfa about what JV's ceiling is, or TR's ceiling, or 2Pat's ceiling, or DD's ceiling
- you know sfa about what moves Masia will make, this year, next year, etc.

Make all the predictions you want, if that turns your crank, but quit dismissing other opinions based on nothing but your baseless crystal ball gazing. Just a suggestion. Something that might lead to more useful discussion.

[Bendit]

Axel makes excellent points. Ceiling is everything, and ours is limited.

Look at Denver. Are they in no man's land? I would say yes. We could win 50 games this year and I'd say our chances of winning a championship are less than 5%. What happens when one of the tankers becomes the next OKC? We get leapfrogged again.

MU wanted to have his cake and eat it too, but trying to squeeze value out of the assets BC left him was penny-wise and pound-foolish. I'm always going to cheer for the squad, but squandering the chance to add another high-ceiling star next to Val is just the latest blown opportunity for this franchise.

Embracing win-now is rationalizing the fact that we really don't have a choice. Just because it's probably too late to take the right course doesn't increase the merit of the alternative.

I'd love for MU to prove me wrong, but I've resigned myself to embracing the wins while they come, even as I accept how limited our ceiling is come playoff time.

To be honest we really do not know what moves MU has planned for the remainder of the season and off season inclusive of draft day. One can only then make a half decent assessment of the path/strategy chosen and consider if mistakes have been made. So far all we have are preferences as individual fans with really limited information on the actual possibilities available....and a even more plausible take on the franchise later next season.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Exactly. All this certainty talk of ceiling is getting laughable, along with the certainty talk of what teams are going to leap over us with an unknown, unproven draft pick. Opinions are fine. We all have them, but opinions of future predictions ........... some people need to start getting a grasp of, and gain some appreciation of, what they don't know of the future, which is a hell of a lot more than they seem to realize. The thing is, how does one have a reasonable discussion about prospects for this team, when people are SURE they know the future? It's just the same old tank/no-tank arguments that have been going on for months, in dozens of threads, sheeeesh.

For those that do know the future, and see it as bleak:

- the tank is off. Get over it, and move on
- you know sfa about what JV's ceiling is, or TR's ceiling, or 2Pat's ceiling, or DD's ceiling
- you know sfa about what moves Masia will make, this year, next year, etc.

Make all the predictions you want, if that turns your crank, but quit dismissing other opinions based on nothing but your baseless crystal ball gazing.

How is it any different than the certainty of statements like the one you highlighted from S.R.?

This is not like moving forward with a capped out, mature roster with a 50 win ceiling. Not at all.

That's an equally certain statement about a complete uncertainty, which just happens to be more aligned to your own opinion, no? It seems like you're "baseless crystal ball gazing" just as much as Axel, while just seeing a different uncertain alternative future.

Much like Axel, I agree that the tank is off, but that doesn't mean I still don't believe it might prove to have been a better alternative in the long-run. My view may be proven right or wrong, who knows. We won't know for years and there will be so many contributing factors that any "proof" one way or another will be inconclusive.

[p00ka]

How is it any different than the certainty of statements like the one you highlighted from S.R.?

This is not like moving forward with a capped out, mature roster with a 50 win ceiling. Not at all.

That's an equally certain statement about a complete uncertainty, which just happens to be more aligned to your own opinion, no? It seems like you're "baseless crystal ball gazing" just as much as Axel, while just seeing a different uncertain alternative future.

Much like Axel, I agree that the tank is off, but that doesn't mean I still don't believe it might prove to have been a better alternative in the long-run. My view may be proven right or wrong, who knows. We won't know for years and there will be so many contributing factors that any "proof" one way or another will be inconclusive.

Huh? Let me see.

- capped out: it's certain that they aren't
- mature roster: it's certain that they aren't
- 50 win ceiling: referencing the "ceiling" chatter, which is certainly what I was talking about

Dude, rather confusing response how that statement even remotely compares to the ceiling and teams leap-frogging certainty I'm referring to. Huh?

Yup, you're right. NOTHING is conclusive. Thought that was significant point of my post. *confused*

PS. comes across as arguing for the sake of arguing, but really saying nothing

[Axel]

Exactly. All this certainty talk of ceiling is getting laughable, along with the certainty talk of what teams are going to leap over us with an unknown, unproven draft pick. Opinions are fine. We all have them, but opinions of future predictions ........... some people need to start getting a grasp of, and gain some appreciation of, what they don't know of the future, which is a hell of a lot more than they seem to realize. The thing is, how does one have a reasonable discussion about prospects for this team, when people are SURE they know the future? It's just the same old tank/no-tank arguments that have been going on for months, in dozens of threads, sheeeesh.

For those that do know the future, and see it as bleak:

- the tank is off. Get over it, and move on
- you know sfa about what JV's ceiling is, or TR's ceiling, or 2Pat's ceiling, or DD's ceiling
- you know sfa about what moves Masia will make, this year, next year, etc.

Make all the predictions you want, if that turns your crank, but quit dismissing other opinions based on nothing but your baseless crystal ball gazing. Just a suggestion. Something that might lead to more useful discussion.

CalRapsFan already did the bulk of the heavy lifting in his response (bang on!) so I will just add; how does one develop a franchise without looking to and predicting the future? Building a team isn't a series of one-year plans that start over each May. If it is, then by all means, sign me up for a division banner and playoff push. Reality is that building a contending team takes years of planning, reacting and luck. Plan for the next 3 years (when drafts, free agencies, contract values can be somewhat estimated). React to the ever changing environment as best you can within your overall plan. Get some luck with ping pong balls and injuries.

So yes, I am using my magic crystal ball to predict that at least some of the top prospects of the super hyped draft will turn out to be good players (isn't dismissing them as unproven dismissing the draft entirely?) and will make their intended impacts. I'm also using the all mighty brain here to see in history that the chances of landing an equally good player while picking in the 20s is quite low. History is fact, no hocus pocus. Two teams on fairly equal footing, one adds a great player, one adds a decent role player: who wins the game next year? And the year after that?

Since we are in it for the long term, long term ramifications have to be considered. Masai said 5 years, and by missing out on this draft, it will very likely take 5 years to get anywhere. This draft was the chance to strike while the irons hot and make 5 years into 3 years, without any Colangelo "accelerated rebuild" BS.

[KeonClark]

CalRapsFan already did the bulk of the heavy lifting in his response (bang on!) so I will just add; how does one develop a franchise without looking to and predicting the future? Building a team isn't a series of one-year plans that start over each May. If it is, then by all means, sign me up for a division banner and playoff push. Reality is that building a contending team takes years of planning, reacting and luck. Plan for the next 3 years (when drafts, free agencies, contract values can be somewhat estimated). React to the ever changing environment as best you can within your overall plan. Get some luck with ping pong balls and injuries.

So yes, I am using my magic crystal ball to predict that at least some of the top prospects of the super hyped draft will turn out to be good players (isn't dismissing them as unproven dismissing the draft entirely?) and will make their intended impacts. I'm also using the all mighty brain here to see in history that the chances of landing an equally good player while picking in the 20s is quite low. History is fact, no hocus pocus. Two teams on fairly equal footing, one adds a great player, one adds a decent role player: who wins the game next year? And the year after that?

Since we are in it for the long term, long term ramifications have to be considered. Masai said 5 years, and by missing out on this draft, it will very likely take 5 years to get anywhere. This draft was the chance to strike while the irons hot and make 5 years into 3 years, without any Colangelo "accelerated rebuild" BS.

The highest pick Indiana had in YEARS was Paul George, #10. Food for thought.

[p00ka]

CalRapsFan already did the bulk of the heavy lifting in his response (bang on!) so I will just add; how does one develop a franchise without looking to and predicting the future? Building a team isn't a series of one-year plans that start over each May. If it is, then by all means, sign me up for a division banner and playoff push. Reality is that building a contending team takes years of planning, reacting and luck. Plan for the next 3 years (when drafts, free agencies, contract values can be somewhat estimated). React to the ever changing environment as best you can within your overall plan. Get some luck with ping pong balls and injuries.

So yes, I am using my magic crystal ball to predict that at least some of the top prospects of the super hyped draft will turn out to be good players (isn't dismissing them as unproven dismissing the draft entirely?) and will make their intended impacts. I'm also using the all mighty brain here to see in history that the chances of landing an equally good player while picking in the 20s is quite low. History is fact, no hocus pocus. Two teams on fairly equal footing, one adds a great player, one adds a decent role player: who wins the game next year? And the year after that?

Since we are in it for the long term, long term ramifications have to be considered. Masai said 5 years, and by missing out on this draft, it will very likely take 5 years to get anywhere. This draft was the chance to strike while the irons hot and make 5 years into 3 years, without any Colangelo "accelerated rebuild" BS.

Thanks for the rant about the kind of things that long term planning entails, but I didn't need it, and it doesn't address my point at all. The considerations needed for planning lend zero credibility to your crystal ball gazing I spoke to.

Beyond that, so your response is that you believe tanking for this year's draft is/was the answer. Who knew? Still does zip to land any credibility to your crystal ball.

Really, that's quite a rant, but is devoid of any credible rebuttal to my points.