Why does such an ugly offense have such a high ORTG?

[Mindlessness]

As inefficient as the guards are, they have been carried by the fantastic shooting percentages of ALL of our bigs plus James Johnson.

JJ, Amir, and JV are all leading the league in shooting percentages, on a decent amount of shots (approx 21 per game)

And low TO's and lots of FT's

Either way it is more of a false positive than anything else. The system is being propped up by some amazing play from our big guys

I wonder what happens if we substitute in average players who shoot at average percentages compared to the league for JV, AJ, and JJ. How would our ORTG look then?

Too late for me to do this, might do it tomorrow just to see the results. Might post it.

[OldSkoolCool]

As inefficient as the guards are, they have been carried by the fantastic shooting percentages of ALL of our bigs plus James Johnson.

JJ, Amir, and JV are all leading the league in shooting percentages, on a decent amount of shots (approx 21 per game)

And low TO's and lots of FT's

Either way it is more of a false positive than anything else. The system is being propped up by some amazing play from our big guys

[octothorp]

The problem with this logic is that it assumes that they will be playing against other teams' benches, which is something that is less likely in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. And when they are matched up against frontline players, at least just the sense I get from watching them, they can struggle big time.

I'd be curious to see how they do against another team's starters when the other team shortens the bench. Personally, I like the thought of an opponent shortening their bench and then forcing their starting guards to chase Lou around and suckered into unnecessary fouls... same with Hansbrough pushing with their bigs, or making their PF run out after Patterson on the perimeter. Over a single game, no, the bench might not match up well against the other team's starters, but if the other team is determined to play the whole series with a shortened bench, our starters are going to be fresher late in the series, and our bench has the potential to steal us a game.

[raptors999]

We have players like Lou Williams and Grieves and DeMar who aren't spot up shooters and create a lot of their offense off the bounce its not a terrible idea.

Only Lou shoots better off the bounce, everyone else are better catch and shoot. Demar may be better midrange but he isn't taking corner threes off the dribble.

[Jrice9]

This doesn't make much sense to me. An ISO heavy offense requires elite players to maintain throughout a season. You're agreeing (right?) that we don't have elite players, so doesn't that make it a horrible offence to run?

We have players like Lou Williams and Grieves and DeMar who aren't spot up shooters and create a lot of their offense off the bounce its not a terrible idea.

[raptors999]

This doesn't make much sense to me. An ISO heavy offense requires elite players to maintain throughout a season. You're agreeing (right?) that we don't have elite players, so doesn't that make it a horrible offence to run?

How hard do opposing team defend when they are getting to the rim at will. Teams play loose then turn it up 4Q. Bulls have done it every game this season

[tDotted]

For the talent that exists, its not a bad offence.

This doesn't make much sense to me. An ISO heavy offense requires elite players to maintain throughout a season. You're agreeing (right?) that we don't have elite players, so doesn't that make it a horrible offence to run?

[golden]

I'd have to guess that the main reason is for the high ORTG is that the players are willing to make the bad defense for good offense tradeoff. I would guess that player's are giving up on Casey's hyper-help defense, and saving their energy for offense.

It's not really that difficult to have a top 5 offence even with mediocre talent, if you're willing to tank your defense. Sam Mitchell did it with the 2005-06 Raps squad. The infamous Mike James year. 3 mediocre guards (Mo-P, James, Jalen) + an emerging Bosh (true star) gave us a 4th ranked offense & 29th ranked defense.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/TOR/2006.html

[slaw]

I haven't looked at monthly splits, but these truisms from this season's Raptors squad aren't all true anymore.

The Raptors are now -0.4 ORB Diff, their own 10.8 ORB per game planting them squarely average @ 15th in the league. As I mentioned, their TO Diff is now really, really bad @ -1.7, good for 27th in the league. ORB and TO's are not helping them win games anymore, they're actually both net negatives. Although I guess that's off-topic from ORTG a bit - re: the formula the Raps are 3rd in Team TO but again just 15th for Team ORB.

It's all about the 4 factors (all from BR). The overall TOV% is still low ranking 4th in the league. EFG% is 8th. FT/FGA they are 4th. The ORB% puts them 11th. That's all pretty good stuff.

The criticism of the offense is warranted for poor situational basketball and questionable tactics. But, overall, the offense is fine. The defense sucks. Improving the offense marginally, or even materially, isn't going ot matter much cause the Raps can't stop anyone.

[white men can't jump]

You also have to look at the differences in personnel between the starters and bench. The original White Squad that was so effective early in the season--and more recently--plays slower and has a different style: Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and Tyler Hansbrough. That makes it harder to plan for the Raptors.

I have been saying for a while now that Toronto's success in the playoffs will only come if Coach Casey, against traditional wisdom, does not shorten his bench. The White Squad can blow the other teams' bench players off the court, and in the process give the starters more energy for the last five minutes of the game. It's no coincidence that the top six three-man lineups for the Raptors this season are all bench players, and five of them feature Hansbrough. He has the highest ORtg among rotation players, and has had the highest NetRtg all season, by a very large margin (11.3). Right now, he finally has a chance to show a skeptical coaching staff what he can do. James Johnson, the other player who is considered "marginal" in terms of playoff minutes, is in my view essential to the success of the team as a whole, because his slashing offensive style balances out the jumpers and floaters of Vasquez and Williams, and his defence helps compensate for their weakness on that end of the court (7.0 NetRtg).

The problem with this logic is that it assumes that they will be playing against other teams' benches, which is something that is less likely in the playoffs than it is in the regular season. And when they are matched up against frontline players, at least just the sense I get from watching them, they can struggle big time.

They are better than most benches, but in the playoffs they will get less opportunity to exploit that. Even just looking at the current projected matchup with the Wiz, it's tough to be optimistic if the Wiz decide to up their starters' minutes. Right now, nobody on their team is averaging 36+ minutes. In the playoffs, it's quite possible that at least Wall, Beal and Gortat all see their minutes closer to 40 or possibly even higher, at least in Wall's case. Can't imagine our bench squad doing very good against a unit that has Wall and at least one of Nene/Gortat on the court. Too much speed/ballhandling on the perimeter, and too much power inside.

*Oh, not to mention that if, say, the opponent does trot out an all(or mostly) bench crew against them the first game of a series, and our squad destroys them, that all but guarantees the opponent will not continue matching up their rotation like that.

[JawsGT]

yeah, the success of the bench certainly has a lot to do with it. there is little to no drop off (if not an increase) in offense with our bench. But it will be interesting to see how this plays out in the playoffs. If opponents shorten their rotation, and we do not, will our bench units still be as effective?

also a concern mentioned above is that our offence is easy to game plan for, and facing the same opponent in a series will give them plenty of opportunity to make adjustments. Will the team be able to score at the same rate throughout a series, or will the offence drop off with each game?

It's been quite the mystery to me how this team has been able to score at the rate it has given the offensive style. It was confusing even in the first 30 games. And that we have been able to maintain a top offence throughout the season despite that teams having gotten better defending us (specifically the best defensive teams), that Derozan missed 20+ games, that Lowry got burned out and is now missing games, that none of our big men are consistently involved in the offence, that GV has been worse for the most part than last season and that Ross has been virtually a non-factor is quite mind-blowing. I must be underestimating the LouWill impact or something. There is more offensive talent on this team than I think I guess.

Too bad we can't defend even at a league average rate...probably have 50+ wins right now and we would all be Raptors fans with our heads held high. Weird season...

[raptors999]

I haven't looked at monthly splits, but these truisms from this season's Raptors squad aren't all true anymore.

The Raptors are now -0.4 ORB Diff, their own 10.8 ORB per game planting them squarely average @ 15th in the league. As I mentioned, their TO Diff is now really, really bad @ -1.7, good for 27th in the league. ORB and TO's are not helping them win games anymore, they're actually both net negatives.

Okay then high turn over, low Oreb and a friendly whistle -> ECF

[S.R.]

low turnovers high free throws and high orebs.

I haven't looked at monthly splits, but these truisms from this season's Raptors squad aren't all true anymore.

The Raptors are now -0.4 ORB Diff, their own 10.8 ORB per game planting them squarely average @ 15th in the league. As I mentioned, their TO Diff is now really, really bad @ -1.7, good for 27th in the league. ORB and TO's are not helping them win games anymore, they're actually both net negatives. Although I guess that's off-topic from ORTG a bit - re: the formula the Raps are 3rd in Team TO but again just 15th for Team ORB.

[golden]

A few reasons, perhaps:

1) The ORTG is inflated against bad teams, and good teams are willing to get us into a high scoring game, knowing they can outscore our bottom 5 defense when it counts.

2) Because our high usage guards conserve energy on defense, leaving more energy for offense.

3) Although the offense can be ugly and predictable, it can also be somewhat un-predictable because Casey seems to be letting the ball-handlers call plays on the fly.

4) JV, Amir and Hansbro are fantastic offensive rebounders.

5) Our bench is better than most benches, with Lou Williams having a career year.

[caccia]

You also have to look at the differences in personnel between the starters and bench. The original White Squad that was so effective early in the season--and more recently--plays slower and has a different style: Greivis Vasquez, Lou Williams, James Johnson, Patrick Patterson, and Tyler Hansbrough. That makes it harder to plan for the Raptors.

I have been saying for a while now that Toronto's success in the playoffs will only come if Coach Casey, against traditional wisdom, does not shorten his bench. The White Squad can blow the other teams' bench players off the court, and in the process give the starters more energy for the last five minutes of the game. It's no coincidence that the top six three-man lineups for the Raptors this season are all bench players, and five of them feature Hansbrough. He has the highest ORtg among rotation players, and has had the highest NetRtg all season, by a very large margin (11.3). Right now, he finally has a chance to show a skeptical coaching staff what he can do. James Johnson, the other player who is considered "marginal" in terms of playoff minutes, is in my view essential to the success of the team as a whole, because his slashing offensive style balances out the jumpers and floaters of Vasquez and Williams, and his defence helps compensate for their weakness on that end of the court (7.0 NetRtg).