Goals for the rest of the ‘24 season

[Primer]

I'd much rather have the 7th pick next year than the 4th pick this year. Some here will argue against that but I think it's a weak argument that no NBA analyst would agree with. If the only way you can justify it is to say "every NBA analyst is wrong I'm right" then it's an argument detached from reality.

It also could be as bad as keep the 6th this year and lose the 7th next year.

I suspect some here would still argue they prefer that but I just can't take them seriously.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Well first you named a bunch of guys that are likely going 1-6.. we have that part of the draft protected if the pick doesn't convey. Again if we don't convey the pick, the draft pick next year is protected 1-6. Those guys can still be had. I'm not sure you understand that the pick is protected next year 1-6. It feels like you are ignoring that part by mentioning guys like Flagg and Bailey.

After 7 it will convey. And if it does we get to develop a top 4 protected pick from this draft for a whole year. There is always a chance that the guy in 2025 at 7 (or higher) is better than the guy from 1-4 this year (assuming it doesn't convey). But I like the idea of having a young kid in our system for a whole year over not having one.

And again these Raptors despite their age/talent level could get better. Organic growth is often laughed at.. but teams do get better. How do you think a team like Orlando got so much better? Not every young team ends up like Detroit/Charlotte. It's why we have vets like Jak and Kelly on the team.

And I don't think coaching matters too much. Talent matters more. Scottie is a good player. He's just young and stupid. RJ and IQ are blossoming and we'll have them for a full year and not just a few months. We will also have nobody looking for a new contract like we have had for most of this year and last year. That helps a lot too.

I'm not saying they are a lock for the playoffs.. but I like their chances a lot more than this years team. I could see them missing the playoffs but ending up closer to the 12th worse team and not the 6th or 7th worse team. Again I'd be happy to convey the #12 pick next year over the top 4 pick this year if that's the way it goes.

"I'm not sure you understand that the pick is protected next year 1-6."
I do but my point is two fold. You can always move up and I would take my chances of moving up in next year where you aren't worrying about conveying or not rather than this year where the draft has talent as all drafts literally have some fort of talent but the guys that i mentioned who yes are largely 1-6 but there are guys outside of that are guys who could match the talent level of Barnes and have a much higher skill floor. I want full control over what happens so that if we look really really good next year great then we can be buyers... if not then we make those decisions but you dont have to enter into the season being on the edge of ok should we tank or not. Right now we are on the edge and could remain so.. Think sacramento kings between bush's presidency and last year where most years they are drafting around the 5-7 spot but each year until 2026 there is a chance you lose the pick... and then I believe it conveys into two additional seconds (2026+2027).

Just rip it off like a bandaid.




But I like the idea of having a young kid in our system for a whole year over not having one."

I dont disagree but I also dont want to develop 3 kids all at once when we still have to continue developing others. as well.





"I don't think coaching matters too much."

I think coaching matters but talent is able to give you more margins and give the coach more chess pieces to put on the board.

"I'm not saying they are a lock for the playoffs"

This is where we fundamentally disagree I dont think we are better than a bottom seeded play-in team at best.

[LJ2]

Grizzlies are still top 10 defense... pace adjusted. Raps are 24th.

Aaaand we have nearly the same record so what does it matter anyway? I'd say Toronto is trying harder not to win games if you consider how they have been sitting guys every other game.

[planetmars]

People keep saying "top 4 pick this year" but there's no guarantee of that, we could pick 8th for instance, correct? Comes down to odds and ping pong balls. I think we're horrible as far as the W-L record goes for the rest of the season so it's likely a mute point.....pick ain't conveying. I'm fine if it does because we already have two other picks but I also agree we should be better next season and the pick wouldn't convey out of a good draft anyway.

Would just prefer the issue wasn't hangng over us for another season.

It's the debate of whether you would be okay to convey the pick. And I'm against that notion so hard. We can't get the 5th pick because we won't catch Portland, and the lottery only gets you a pick from 1-4. I think the only way we keep the pick is if we go 1-4, because I don't think we over take Memphis who is 6th already. You can't move up from 7th to 6th as that's not how the lottery works. At 6th you can even move back and there is a greater chance of that happening than going 1-4.

Either way, my whole point is that I'm going to be super stoked and happy if we win the lottery (ie, get 1-4). So that we don't convey the pick this year and keep it. And yes I know that means that we likely convey the pick in the 2025 draft.. but like I've been arguing.. I'd prefer a pick this season 1-4 than a pick next year that is higher than 7 since the 1-6 next year is protected as well.

[TrueTorontoFan]

It's the debate of whether you would be okay to convey the pick. And I'm against that notion so hard. We can't get the 5th pick because we won't catch Portland, and the lottery only gets you a pick from 1-4. I think the only way we keep the pick is if we go 1-4, because I don't think we over take Memphis who is 6th already. You can't move up from 7th to 6th as that's not how the lottery works. At 6th you can even move back and there is a greater chance of that happening than going 1-4.

Either way, my whole point is that I'm going to be super stoked and happy if we win the lottery (ie, get 1-4). So that we don't convey the pick this year and keep it. And yes I know that means that we likely convey the pick in the 2025 draft.. but like I've been arguing.. I'd prefer a pick this season 1-4 than a pick next year that is higher than 7 since the 1-6 next year is protected as well.

i mean if we get a top 4 pick im not depressed but it isn't an optimal outcome from the standpoint of the overal situation. As long as they dont try to meaningfully improve the team we still may be ok either way which I suppose is fine. heck we may be in the 8th spot anyways and move up. I am never in favor of purposefully losing with regards to things like sitting players etc. you made a point earlier about that. I am just suggesting we suck either way. If we end up sucking for 3 years and gather enough talent GREAT. Ultimately we need talent. I just want a pick for next years draft and ideally our own.

[planetmars]

"I'm not sure you understand that the pick is protected next year 1-6."
I do but my point is two fold. You can always move up and I would take my chances of moving up in next year where you aren't worrying about conveying or not rather than this year where the draft has talent as all drafts literally have some fort of talent but the guys that i mentioned who yes are largely 1-6 but there are guys outside of that are guys who could match the talent level of Barnes and have a much higher skill floor. I want full control over what happens so that if we look really really good next year great then we can be buyers... if not then we make those decisions but you dont have to enter into the season being on the edge of ok should we tank or not. Right now we are on the edge and could remain so.. Think sacramento kings between bush's presidency and last year where most years they are drafting around the 5-7 spot but each year until 2026 there is a chance you lose the pick... and then I believe it conveys into two additional seconds (2026+2027).

Just rip it off like a bandaid.

Not worrying about conveying is not how teams operate. They go into every season trying to win every game. Coaches and players don't tank. Coaches will get feedback from management on the direction of the team, but coaches are not actively trying to sabotage and lose games but they have to play within the context of what their goals for the franchise are. For example they may have minute restrictions on certain players.

So if we are hovering around 8th or 9th worse.. but are only 2 games back from 10th say.. I think they just stay hungry and go for it. But if they keep losing like they did this season perhaps they don't rush guys back from injuries.. or force the coach to play guys less often, and other guys more often, etc. But those types of decisions come around December when free agents can get traded, and then the trade deadline. I think if they convey a pick that is in the 7+ range it's fine by me and that's been the argument. Because the upside is we get a top 4 pick instead.

But I like the idea of having a young kid in our system for a whole year over not having one."

I dont disagree but I also dont want to develop 3 kids all at once when we still have to continue developing others. as well.

We developed three kids in 2016 and it worked really well. I think it can work again.

"I don't think coaching matters too much."

I think coaching matters but talent is able to give you more margins and give the coach more chess pieces to put on the board.

The NBA is a star driven league. Rarely do you ever see a team win without a super star.. and those guys are easy to pick out. They are the ones that are up for MVP's and first team all-nba. And that's what matters. Not the extra chess pieces that a coach may or may not have. A lot of that is dictated by who plays best with the best players on the team. I think a coach is like a bench piece. They can come in and give you 20 points on an off night and steal a game. Or go ice cold, shoot 0-8 and contribute heavily to a loss. But mostly are complementary pieces to a team. I think coaches get way too much credit at times.. And the only thing that really matters about coaching is if they lost the locker room or not. Do the best players on the team want to play for the guy? Darko isn't an issue. He's critiqued hard because the team sucks. But the team sucks not because of him. But because they are too many holes right now and the team was a mess chemistry wise earlier mostly due to the front office not giving guys proper extensions or having their names in trade rumours all off season.

"I'm not saying they are a lock for the playoffs"

This is where we fundamentally disagree I dont think we are better than a bottom seeded play-in team at best.

[/QUOTE]

I guess it's a wait and see.. Injuries are the biggest differentiator. If a key player like Jak or Scottie gets hurt again it could mean a lot of losses. But if mostly healthy I think they will be about .500 next year (I think they could get 38-40 wins). I think the team will get rid of some guys that we know aren't good. And replace them with guys that should be better. I think there will be growth.. and like I said better chemistry.

[Kagemusha]

Masai really fucked up that Jakob trade eh.
What did it really accomplish?

[DanH]

Graphic says it's from November 2023, so tiny sample size at that point.

That and full season DFG% stats are ALSO tiny sample sizes. You need multiple seasons of DFG% data for it to stabilize.

[DanH]

Masai really fucked up that Jakob trade eh.
What did it really accomplish?

I think what it accomplished was a half decade of functional C play.

[Kagemusha]

I think what it accomplished was a half decade of functional C play.

And for what?
We are still at the bottom.
Fred and Pascal still left.
He was a UFA , wasn' t he.

I mean I was ok with the idea of adding him, but not the way in which he was acquired.

[LJ2]

I'd much rather have the 7th pick next year than the 4th pick this year. Some here will argue against that but I think it's a weak argument that no NBA analyst would agree with. If the only way you can justify it is to say "every NBA analyst is wrong I'm right" then it's an argument detached from reality.

It also could be as bad as keep the 6th this year and lose the 7th next year.

I suspect some here would still argue they prefer that but I just can't take them seriously.

I'd rather have the 1st pick next year as well as a pony if we're making wishes. There's just no evidence we'll be in position for that or the 7th, or 8th or even in the lottery next season. We know we are a bottom feeder this season and in position for a top 6 pick potentially. That's why I would rather keep our pick this season and hope to be in the playoffs next season.

[Primer]

I'd rather have the 1st pick next year as well as a pony if we're making wishes. There's just no evidence we'll be in position for that or the 7th, or 8th or even in the lottery next season. We know we are a bottom feeder this season and in position for a top 6 pick potentially. That's why I would rather keep our pick this season and hope to be in the playoffs next season.

There's less evidence we will be better than 7th or 8th next season. If bookies made odds for next season we would be right in that range.

[TrueTorontoFan]

Not worrying about conveying is not how teams operate. They go into every season trying to win every game. Coaches and players don't tank. Coaches will get feedback from management on the direction of the team, but coaches are not actively trying to sabotage and lose games but they have to play within the context of what their goals for the franchise are. For example they may have minute restrictions on certain players.

So if we are hovering around 8th or 9th worse.. but are only 2 games back from 10th say.. I think they just stay hungry and go for it. But if they keep losing like they did this season perhaps they don't rush guys back from injuries.. or force the coach to play guys less often, and other guys more often, etc. But those types of decisions come around December when free agents can get traded, and then the trade deadline. I think if they convey a pick that is in the 7+ range it's fine by me and that's been the argument. Because the upside is we get a top 4 pick instead.





We developed three kids in 2016 and it worked really well. I think it can work again.




The NBA is a star driven league. Rarely do you ever see a team win without a super star.. and those guys are easy to pick out. They are the ones that are up for MVP's and first team all-nba. And that's what matters. Not the extra chess pieces that a coach may or may not have. A lot of that is dictated by who plays best with the best players on the team. I think a coach is like a bench piece. They can come in and give you 20 points on an off night and steal a game. Or go ice cold, shoot 0-8 and contribute heavily to a loss. But mostly are complementary pieces to a team. I think coaches get way too much credit at times.. And the only thing that really matters about coaching is if they lost the locker room or not. Do the best players on the team want to play for the guy? Darko isn't an issue. He's critiqued hard because the team sucks. But the team sucks not because of him. But because they are too many holes right now and the team was a mess chemistry wise earlier mostly due to the front office not giving guys proper extensions or having their names in trade rumours all off season.

I guess it's a wait and see.. Injuries are the biggest differentiator. If a key player like Jak or Scottie gets hurt again it could mean a lot of losses. But if mostly healthy I think they will be about .500 next year (I think they could get 38-40 wins). I think the team will get rid of some guys that we know aren't good. And replace them with guys that should be better. I think there will be growth.. and like I said better chemistry.
[/QUOTE]

we have an entirely new staff we dont have any of tim leiwekes' hires who were the best of the best of the best.




in terms of growth sure but other teams will be growing too... indiana will end up as a 5th seed that is my prediction for this year... they will still have hali, who is 23... they will have siakam who isn't really showing any decline oh btw removing that intial 10 games of the season and look at his 3 point shooting for the season let alone ind alone.


Orlando will be better and have the assets to make moves.... boston, cleveland, bucks, healthy sixers, knicks, and dont count out the heat. AFTER THAT you can argue that a healthy charlotte could be dangerous ... detroit has too much talent to be that bad and an incoming top 4 pick more 5 pick more than likely AND capspace. Chicago is an unknown and brooklyn as bad as they are ..wont have an incentive to tank but are likely willing to deal simmons. My guess is they are the ones that go star hunting with those phoenix picks and the simmons contract which will be an expiring btw.

[TrueTorontoFan]

I think what it accomplished was a half decade of functional C play.

if functional what we should have been striving for giving up what we gave up? if you add that and the thad deal up in terms of assets again we should have just taken that and went for the correct center maybe a KP or a Turner.

[DanH]

And for what?
We are still at the bottom.
Fred and Pascal still left.
He was a UFA , wasn' t he.

I mean I was ok with the idea of adding him, but not the way in which he was acquired.

I mean it's been covered plenty here many times that we didn't have the cap space to sign him, so trading for him was the only option if we wanted to add him (or anyone else who would cost more than the MLE).