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We will miss the playoffs next year if significant changes are not made

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  • We will miss the playoffs next year if significant changes are not made

    Many people seem to want to sit on this roster we have and add role players like Danny Green, or savvy vets in hopes of improving the team. Mediocre, tread-milling moves like these will not only not improve the team, they will leave us on the outside looking in on the playoffs. Note: I do expect Masai to make major changes, but i just thought it'd be a good idea to bring this up and demonstrate to people that standing pat or making the BC-esque treadmillarific moves we made in 2007-2009 or so, is going to result in those dreaded 9th and 10th seeds once again becoming the norm.

    The eastern conference playoff standings this past year:

    1.) Hawks
    2.) Cavaliers
    3.) Bulls
    4.) Raptors
    5.) Wizards
    6.) Bucks
    7.) Celtics
    8.) Nets

    Atlanta, Cleveland and Chicago have no real reason to take significant steps back next year. Perhaps Atlanta drops back to 50 or so wins from 60, but other than that those teams should be in the mix for the top spots again.

    Now begins the problem:

    Washington - Will probably be about as good next year as they were this year barring a significant jump from Beal or Porter. Which is still better than we are.

    Milwaukee - I expect significant improvement from this team next season and they were already 41-41. Extremely young and will be adding a legitimate scoring threat in Jabari Parker to the starting lineup next year. Expect continued and significant progress from MCW and Giannis.

    Boston - A very young team like Milwaukee that "overachieved" by making the playoffs. Except they didn't. Some other poster mentioned how they actually had a better record than us in the Atlantic Division. They have excellent coaching, young guys who are all improving and key members of the rotation, as well as the ability to make a splash via trade (literally no team other than maybe Philly has more trade assets when it comes to picks and prospects) and improve further.

    Brooklyn - The only playoff team that stands to regress, they suck, are old and won't be getting better any time soon.

    We only finished 9 games ahead of Boston last year. It's not inconceivable that Washington, Milwaukee and Boston could all leapfrog us next year if we don't make significant moves. Which would leave the standings at:

    1.) Hawks
    2.) Cavaliers
    3.) Bulls
    4.) Wizards
    5.) Bucks
    6.) Celtics
    7.) Raptors
    8.) Nets

    Still in the playoffs, all good right? Wrong. There are teams that missed the playoffs last year that stand to improve significantly (or just enough to pass us)

    Indiana - Will be getting Paul George back next year which will give them a huge boost. Also have a top 10 pick in the draft who should be an impact player for them. This was the top seed in the east just a season ago, and while they did lose Lance Stephenson, there's no reason to think they aren't at least a high 40 win team next year with George back.

    Miami - They feature a very, very formidable starting 5 that was not healthy at any point during the season last year, Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside, very capable of being better than us next season and will likely make further moves in free agency to add depth behind them.

    Orlando - Bringing in Scott Skiles at coach with their defensive personnel (Payton, Dipo, Gordon) is a scary prospect. This team played very well towards the end of the season and could also make a Milwaukee like jump with a better coach manning the ship as well as improvement from their young players.

    New York - We love to make fun of them but here's the reality. They're bringing in a top 4 pick and have a lot of cap space. It stands to reason that they could sign 2 or more very high impact players in free agency and be a much stronger team next season.

    Philadelphia - Darkhorse, but if Embiid really is a generational prospect... in the eastern conference this team could be very dangerous next year. They were already elite defensively this past season with essentially Noel, Covington and a bunch of scrubs/D-leaguers/reclamation projects.

    If all of those teams passed us we'd be 11th. It would only take 2 passing us for us to drop to 9th. It will not be a cake walk to either the Atlantic Division title or a high playoff seed (or even the playoffs at all). The east stands to be much stronger next season.

    Really in my opinion the Raptors have two options this offseason (I do not think signing guys like Aldridge or Marc Gasol is realistic so I won't include that prospect) in order to not be completely screwed long-term.

    - Blow it up and rebuild
    - Deal DeRozan or Lowry for a higher upside prospect or player at the same position, take a step back for a season but raise the ceiling of the team going forward.

  • #2
    Agreed. Wrote a similar post saying similar things. I think Lowry and DD could bring top 5-10 picks. DD I am unsure of though, just because would you trade a rental player for a top 5 pick? He can opt out at the end of the season, but hey if you can trade one of them for a top top 7 pick let's say than do it. We need elite talent and we just don't have it on the team. IF you can't sign talent, you must draft it.

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    • #3
      I can get on board with some of what you're saying but this just seems like an extension of the 'we need to rebuild' thread. The whole treadmill term gets thrown around a little too loosely these days - I'd personally reserve it for teams that spend 3 years or more toiling around the same spots in the standing without any clear avenues to improve, neither of which apply to the Raptors in my opinion. The mantra of "The worst place to be in the NBA is a bottom two playoff seed" is accurate in some cases, but sometimes I feel like we interpret as ANY team that finishes in one of those two spots should just blow it up immediately.

      Plus you don't have the Atlantic division winner in the top 4 seeds of your Eastern Conference predictions for next year. The Raptors are really just competing with Boston (which has a lot of assets at the moment but not a great amount of talent) and the Knicks (who could easily suck again if they strike out in free agency) for next year's division title. A terrible division isn't a reason to maintain a roster if you really don't think it's going anywhere but the fear of missing the playoffs next season may be a little overblown. Hell, there's a decent chance we host a series again.
      Last edited by Fully; Sat Jun 6th, 2015, 08:58 PM.

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      • #4
        Yeah, but who cares if we host a series if they're not good enough to win a round. I believe we are treadmilling, because Id rather have Milwaukee's and Boston's roster right now. They're younger and on a better path of building. So it's not about where you finish, it's about the roster and how talented it is. We lack talent I believe.

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        • #5
          IwishIwasZachLowe wrote: View Post
          Agreed. Wrote a similar post saying similar things. I think Lowry and DD could bring top 5-10 picks. DD I am unsure of though, just because would you trade a RENTAL for a top 5 pick? He can opt out at the end of the season, but hey if you can trade one of them for a top top 7 pick let's say than do it. We need elite talent and we just don't have it on the team. IF you can't sign talent, you must draft it.
          Shhsh don't let them know

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          • #6
            Raptors are playoff bound until some team in the Atlantic improves greatly. Celtics have a zillion picks and will continue as is until they can package good for better. No one in the divison is actually trying to win except the Knicks and they'll suck for a long time regardless

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            • #7
              Milwaukee will take a step back. Celtics could challenge Raps for Atlantic. Disagree re Danny Green being 'role player'. If we were to trade DD Danny Green could be our starting SG if we could sign him as a free agent.

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              • #8
                There will be CHANGE. There is no way the MU can sit quietly.

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                • #9
                  IwishIwasZachLowe wrote: View Post
                  Yeah, but who cares if we host a series if they're not good enough to win a round. I believe we are treadmilling, because Id rather have Milwaukee's and Boston's roster right now. They're younger and on a better path of building. So it's not about where you finish, it's about the roster and how talented it is. We lack talent I believe.
                  Ehh yeah… difference of opinion. My larger point was that you can't make a "We won't make the playoffs next season so we need to blow it up!" thread and then forget/omit that the division winner gets a top 4 seed.

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                  • #10
                    Fully wrote: View Post
                    I can get on board with some of what you're saying but this just seems like an extension of the 'we need to rebuild' thread. The whole treadmill term gets thrown around a little too loosely these days - I'd personally reserve it for teams that spend 3 years or more toiling around the same spots in the standing without any clear avenues to improve, neither of which apply to the Raptors in my opinion. The mantra of "The worst place to be in the NBA is a bottom two playoff seed" is accurate in some cases, but sometimes I feel like we interpret as ANY team that finishes in one of those two spots should just blow it up immediately.

                    Plus you don't have the Atlantic division winner in the top 4 seeds of your Eastern Conference predictions for next year. The Raptors are really just competing with Boston (which has a lot of assets at the moment but not a great amount of talent) and the Knicks (who could easily suck again if they strike out in free agency) for next year's division title. A terrible division isn't a reason to maintain a roster if you really don't think it's going anywhere but the fear of missing the playoffs next season may be a little overblown. Hell, there's a decent chance we host a series again.
                    I agree, this isn't treadmilling IMO. We aren't capped out, in fact we have ample space over the next two offseasons, still have pics, only one player signed long term...so there are ways to improve the roster. That isn't treadmilling. Treadmilling is when you cap out a roster with a low ceiling with few avenues to improve. That isn't the Raps IMO. Sure, we have had similar results for two straight seasons, but all options are open for MU to get better. I guess if we were to hover around the 50 win mark for 4 or more seasons without deep playoff runs than that may be treadmilling, but even then, as long as we maintain flexibility there is no reason to panic.

                    Blowing it up is certainly an option, and one I'd be fine with, but it certainly isn't the only way to improve going forward.

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                    • #11
                      Fully wrote: View Post
                      Ehh yeah… difference of opinion. My larger point was that you can't make a "We won't make the playoffs next season so we need to blow it up!" thread and then forget/omit that the division winner gets a top 4 seed.
                      Except that will likely be changed by next season.

                      And does anyone really want Boston's roster? I don't see how they're more talented than the Raptors. Sure, I can see the appeal of the young, cheap players, with an amazing coach and a stash of picks. But actual talent? They haven't got a lot. What they do have is flexibility and some potential. Which I guess means that technically the sky's the limit and that's all some people seem to value here.
                      Two beer away from being two beers away.

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                      • #12
                        Mess wrote: View Post
                        Except that will likely be changed by next season.

                        And does anyone really want Boston's roster? I don't see how they're more talented than the Raptors. Sure, I can see the appeal of the young, cheap players, with an amazing coach and a stash of picks. But actual talent? They haven't got a lot. What they do have is flexibility and some potential. Which I guess means that technically the sky's the limit and that's all some people seem to value here.
                        I've even seen people say we shouldn't trade the pick, come on, if it were a top 5 pick, I'd agree, 6-10, maybe, 10 or above - hit or miss.

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                        • #13
                          Mess wrote: View Post
                          Except that will likely be changed by next season.

                          And does anyone really want Boston's roster? I don't see how they're more talented than the Raptors. Sure, I can see the appeal of the young, cheap players, with an amazing coach and a stash of picks. But actual talent? They haven't got a lot. What they do have is flexibility and some potential. Which I guess means that technically the sky's the limit and that's all some people seem to value here.
                          They lack talent, but due to their assets I believe they are in a better position moving forward. Better coach, better GM( He won a ring) and more picks, flexibility and a younger, higher potential roster.

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                          • #14
                            IwishIwasZachLowe wrote: View Post
                            They lack talent, but due to their assets I believe they are in a better position moving forward. Better coach, better GM( He won a ring) and more picks, flexibility and a younger, higher potential roster.
                            uh you realize no one in boston actually like danny ainge right? hes made WAY more terrible moves than good ones. hardly a better gm than masai. and won a ring? who gives a shit. guess who else has a ring? coach casey. austin daye even has a fucking ring. no one cares.

                            flexibility? where are we really lacking in flexibility? we have a bunch of short term contracts and a bunch that are also expiring soon. higher potential roster? we have 2 all-stars. who on the celtics could potentially reach that level besides marcus smart?

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                            • #15
                              I'm in for a rebuild for next season. Hope they kept Casey to be the Tank Commander that he was supposed to be last season. I'm more excited for the new D League team. You need both talent and a great system to win in this league. Raptors don't have both.

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