How many wins? Games 1-10

[DanH]

I usually use stats to make these predictions. My game by game approach won't work until we have enough games played to have a real standard deviation, but I can do something similar but simpler.

Based on the projected ORTG and DRTG I posted in the other thread, and adjusted for home/road and back to backs, and applying the assumed +4 net rating the Raptors are projected to have on average, the Raptors are favoured to win in 7 of the 10 games, though one is very close to a toss up. So call it 6.5. Also, the average expected net rating for an average team over this stretch is -0.2. So applying the Raptors' assumed +4, that gives a +3.8 net rating over this stretch, which translates to 6.3 wins over 10 games.

So we'll peg it at 6 to 7 wins, with the predicted losses being SAS, GSW and UTA, with DEN being the coin toss.

So we lost the coin toss. Meaning 6 wins. A good effort against UTA could save the possibility of 7.

[Nilanka]

It's funny how quickly we can go from "we're awesome!" after Monday's win in Portland, to "wtf are we even doing?" in a mere 48 hours.

@Utah
vs. Washington
vs. Chicago

All 3 games are winnable if we play Raps basketball. But it also wouldn't surprise me if we lose against the Jazz, and don't recover our legs for that 1st home game following a long trip.

Bulls should be a cake walk regardless.

[KeonClark]

It's funny how quickly we can go from "we're awesome!" after Monday's win in Portland, to "wtf are we even doing?" in a mere 48 hours.

@Utah
vs. Washington
vs. Chicago

All 3 games are winnable if we play Raps basketball. But it also wouldn't surprise me if we lose against the Jazz, and don't recover our legs for that 1st home game following a long trip.

Bulls should be a cake walk regardless.

If we can only take 1 out of the 2, I'd rather beat the wiz than the jazz. But first let's beat the jazz then worry about it. Gonna be tough they're 5-0 at home

[Other Scott]

10/19: Chicago W
10/21: Philly W
10/23: @ San Antonio L
10/25: @ Golden State L
10/27: @ LA Lakers W
10/30: @ Portland W
11/01: @ Denver L
11/03: @ Utah W
11/05: Washington W
11/07: Chicago W

7-3. A more reasonable guess would be 6-4, with them also dropping one of POR, UTA or WAS, but screw that.

Dan is nailing it so far!!

10/19: Chicago - W
10/21: Philly - W
10/23: @ San Antonio - L
10/25: @ Golden State - L
10/27: @ LA Lakers - W
10/30: @ Portland - W
11/01: @ Denver - L
11/03: @ Utah - L
11/05: Washington - W
11/07: Chicago - L

I'm not sure Philly and Washington at home will be wins either. Predicting 5-5, but could really be anywhere from 3-7 to 7-3. The Washington, Philly, Utah and Denver games are toss-ups imo.

So is Shaolin though

[Jclaw]

Dan is nailing it so far!!



So is Shaolin though

One predicts 3-0 and the other 1-2.....so what is the 2-1 tiebreaker?

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Something's wrong with my predictions you posted. It should say L against Washington and W over Chicago for the last 2 games. I think I mis-wrote that.

[Other Scott]

I liked you being bold and saying they'd lose to Chicago at home - don't go back on it now!!

(I could completely see them playing a great all around game to the Wiz and then just tossing up a major let down stinker against the Bulls)

[Shaolin Fantastic]

I liked you being bold and saying they'd lose to Chicago at home - don't go back on it now!!

(I could completely see them playing a great all around game to the Wiz and then just tossing up a major let down stinker against the Bulls)

I didn't mean to say that but ok.

[S.R.]

Something's wrong with my predictions you posted. It should say L against Washington and W over Chicago for the last 2 games. I think I mis-wrote that.

I think this is against the rules, not sure you can change your predictions from the future.

[ogi]

If we can only take 1 out of the 2, I'd rather beat the wiz than the jazz. But first let's beat the jazz then worry about it. Gonna be tough they're 5-0 at home

The way I see it that means they're due for a home loss

[Mack North]

The way I see it that means they're due for a home loss

They were due and we did.

Still not sure how this Wiz game plays out, Raptors usually lay an egg in the first game back after a long road trip. If Wall can't go then Raps should be good.

Changing my vote from 6-4 to 7-3, book it.

[planetmars]

They were due and we did.

Still not sure how this Wiz game plays out, Raptors usually lay an egg in the first game back after a long road trip. If Wall can't go then Raps should be good.

Changing my vote from 6-4 to 7-3, book it.

Hopefully Wall plays.. would prefer to play them at even strength even if they lose. Will be a good battle

[Mack North]

Wall hurt his shoulder against Cleveland and is questionable for Sunday.

He can take the day off since I will likely win my fantasy even if he doesn't play.

[planetmars]

He can take the day off since I will likely win my fantasy even if he doesn't play.

I edited what I wrote before you replied.. I didn't realize you saw the injury report. He's on one of my fantasy teams too. But this early I like to see the Raps tested.. would have preferred to play SA with Kwahi (although we lost still) and Washington with Wall (and hope we beat them). Beating Washington without Wall means nothing. And if they win without Wall it will hurt so much more.

[Mack North]

I edited what I wrote before you replied.. I didn't realize you saw the injury report. He's on one of my fantasy teams too. But this early I like to see the Raps tested.. would have preferred to play SA with Kwahi (although we lost still) and Washington with Wall (and hope we beat them). Beating Washington without Wall means nothing. And if they win without Wall it will hurt so much more.

Couldn't agree more. As the old cliche goes "you wanna be the best? You gotta beat the best." As you said, it means nothing to beat a team without their top star in the lineup, it doesn't give you a true test of who they actually are. Boston winning 7 straight is a tad concerning, but I still think Raps will hold the advantage when they play each other. It will be an interesting division if the 6ers and Knicks can remain around .500 or better(not that either has a chance at winning the Atlantic).