Some interesting (early) lineup stats

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Early returns say our default starting lineup doesn't work well with Ibaka/JV at the 4/5.

So far this season it's the 2nd most used lineup (after the all-bench unit) and -6.7 net rating in 45 minutes over 3 games. Again, small sample size, but this is now continuing off the trend from last year where the same lineup (Carroll instead of Powell) was -25.2 in 40 minutes over 3 games. Still waiting for more data for that to come in over the next few games, but it's looking like an issue as I predicted in the offseason.

Not to mention in those 3 games with that unit we've played 2 bad teams at home and one difficult game (the most recent one against Denver). So if anything the stats should be looking better than usual but they still look quite bad.

The exact same lineup with Ibaka at the 5 and Siakam at the 4 (3rd most used lineup) is +19.3 on the year so far.

[Rudy Bargnani]

This is an interesting thing to watch for sure.

As you noted small sample size etc.

That said, starting lineups have struggled several years in a row. JV-Scola and JV Siakim struggled together. Fair enough.


We really need the JV Ibaka pairing to play well together.

[Chr1s1anL]

Can't wait for people to start blaming Serge like they did with Scola/Siakam.

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[Chr1s1anL]

Early returns say our default starting lineup doesn't work well with Ibaka/JV at the 4/5.

So far this season it's the 2nd most used lineup (after the all-bench unit) and -6.7 net rating in 45 minutes over 3 games. Again, small sample size, but this is now continuing off the trend from last year where the same lineup (Carroll instead of Powell) was -25.2 in 40 minutes over 3 games. Still waiting for more data for that to come in over the next few games, but it's looking like an issue as I predicted in the offseason.

Not to mention in those 3 games with that unit we've played 2 bad teams at home and one difficult game (the most recent one against Denver). So if anything the stats should be looking better than usual but they still look quite bad.

The exact same lineup with Ibaka at the 5 and Siakam at the 4 (3rd most used lineup) is +19.3 on the year so far.

Good post. Been saying since the summer that Ibaka/Siakam pair would be the best lineup to start the game. Ibaka is just better at 5 position. The team can play to thier identity of playing fast and switching everything on defense but, what do I know. I just hate JV.

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[Rudy Bargnani]

Can't wait for people to start blaming Serge like they did with Scola/Siakam.

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In fairness Ibaka was terrible last night. He now has 3 assists total all season.

[Chr1s1anL]

In fairness Ibaka was terrible last night.

With allof his minutes at the 4. He has played best at the 5. Everyone was bad btw

[Nilanka]

Yup, starters have looked off for a while now. Will definitely keep an eye on this to see if Jonas is, in fact, the common denominator.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

The reality is that Ibaka is essentially a stretch 5 nowadays. His mobility at the 4 is actually average if not below average (Millsap was dancing around him with regularity yesterday, and he's quite old), but at the 5 is above average. The other problem is that at the 4 defensively he gets pulled out to the perimeter because almost every damn 4 in the league is a stretch 4 or a big SF nowadays. His perimeter defense isn't that great, plus it completely takes his rim protection (which is his best asset as a weakside shotblocker/disruptor) out of the equation on defense.

Again these are just early returns statistically, but they are confirming notions that a few of us had prior to the start of the season, and also noticed last year with Ibaka/JV playing together.

I will say that on offense it's not really an issue, it's defensively where it's more problematic. Although even on offense, if Ibaka is at the 5, that allows you to have 4 shooters on the floor in the starting unit (with DD being the odd-man-out) instead of just 3.

[ogi]

Early returns say our default starting lineup doesn't work well with Ibaka/JV at the 4/5.

So far this season it's the 2nd most used lineup (after the all-bench unit) and -6.7 net rating in 45 minutes over 3 games. Again, small sample size, but this is now continuing off the trend from last year where the same lineup (Carroll instead of Powell) was -25.2 in 40 minutes over 3 games. Still waiting for more data for that to come in over the next few games, but it's looking like an issue as I predicted in the offseason.

Not to mention in those 3 games with that unit we've played 2 bad teams at home and one difficult game (the most recent one against Denver). So if anything the stats should be looking better than usual but they still look quite bad.

The exact same lineup with Ibaka at the 5 and Siakam at the 4 (3rd most used lineup) is +19.3 on the year so far.

Getting spanked by Denver when you're seven games in will severely distort the lineup stats. That lineup went from +4.5 to -6.7 due to last night's game.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Getting spanked by Denver when you're seven games in will severely distort the lineup stats. That lineup went from +4.5 to -6.7 due to last night's game.

Yes that's why I said it's a small sample size. You also need to remember that +4.5 came in games against one of the worst teams in the league (Bulls) and in a 30 point win over the Sixers. So don't leave that part out either.

Comparatively, the Siakam-Ibaka lineup fared FAR better against more difficult competition (Spurs, Blazers, Warriors on the road and a Lakers game that ended up being close but shouldn't have been). So there's definitely something we can glean from that.

[DanH]

20 games, people. 20 games.

[Rudy Bargnani]

The reality is that Ibaka is essentially a stretch 5 nowadays. His mobility at the 4 is actually average if not below average (Millsap was dancing around him with regularity yesterday, and he's quite old), but at the 5 is above average. The other problem is that at the 4 defensively he gets pulled out to the perimeter because almost every damn 4 in the league is a stretch 4 or a big SF nowadays. His perimeter defense isn't that great, plus it completely takes his rim protection (which is his best asset as a weakside shotblocker/disruptor) out of the equation on defense.

Again these are just early returns statistically, but they are confirming notions that a few of us had prior to the start of the season, and also noticed last year with Ibaka/JV playing together.

I will say that on offense it's not really an issue, it's defensively where it's more problematic. Although even on offense, if Ibaka is at the 5, that allows you to have 4 shooters on the floor in the starting unit (with DD being the odd-man-out) instead of just 3.

I'm not going to look it up but I think there is data from Ibaka's Orlando days supporting your point. I read somewhere he struggled at the 4 there regardless of whether it was vooch or biyombo beside him.

[DanH]

I'm not going to look it up but I think there is data from Ibaka's Orlando days supporting your point. I read somewhere he struggled at the 4 there regardless of whether it was vooch or biyombo beside him.

He posted a +2.4 net rating as a C in Orlando. He was awful beside Biyombo (-9.7 net rating), and close to average (-2.8) beside Vucevic. There are of course other confounding factors, like with his C sample here, that those minutes would mostly come against opposing bench players or small opposition. But he definitely had some relative success in his limited (82 minutes total all year) sample as a C in Orlando.

[ogi]

Yes that's why I said it's a small sample size. You also need to remember that +4.5 came in games against one of the worst teams in the league (Bulls) and in a 30 point win over the Sixers. So don't leave that part out either.

Comparatively, the Siakam-Ibaka lineup fared FAR better against more difficult competition (Spurs, Blazers, Warriors on the road and a Lakers game that ended up being close but shouldn't have been). So there's definitely something we can glean from that.

Is there though? Your conclusion may very well be correct but both lineups have barely even been given a chance to really play. I'd say we revisit this a little further down the road.

[MixxAOR]

Can we try to play Ibaka at the 5 on a bench more? Kinda like Lowry + bench?