Drew Gooden vs Amir Johnson

[Quixotic]

It is interesting to note that when Johnson started for the Pistons in the beginning of the year in 2008-09 before Curry yanked him from the starting lineup the Pistons never lost a first quarter.

Uh... what is your definition of losing a quarter, because by my count your claim is a bit of an exaggeration. Not taking anything away from Amir, who I think is a valuable piece indeed, but their games against Toronto and Sacremento come to mind.

[Buddahfan]

Care to elaborate on this?

A team can start whoever they want.

It is interesting to note that when Johnson started for the Pistons in the beginning of the year in 2008-09 before Curry yanked him from the starting lineup the Pistons were 5-2 in the first quarter. See below

Having followed his career long enough I know that he can be and usually is a positive contributor over the season as a starter or as a bench player.

The problem however, with him starting is that coaches do not like to bring their bench players into the game in the first quarter on a regular basis after say 3 minutes 5 minutes or even 7 or 8 minutes.

Coaches just don't do this. So even if a player is generally effective when he is on the court in the first and third quarter coaches don't like their starters picking up early fouls which forces the bench player to play say 30 minutes. Now the Lakers with Bynum and Odom have been a bit of the exception but normally this is not the case.

So yes I think Johnson could be an effective starter if his minutes were limited by fouls to about 25 mpg on the average. However, i doubt that Triano would start him under those circumstances.

It was clear in watching the games that Johnson started that Triano just about had a heart attack whenever Johnson got a foul or two in the first quarter especially early.

So I doubt that Johnson could start if he can't stay on the court for 30+ minutes night in and night out no matter how effective he was for the time that he was out there.

I don't think that he would have to play 40+ minutes like he did in the last game of the season in 2009-10 but I think 30 mpg minimum would be the number to keep him in the starting lineup if he gets the initial nod to start in the fall.

Personally I don't think he can do it for a number of reasons, at least not yet. So I am figuring him in the same role as last year even if Davis starts ahead of him assuming that Bosh leaves and the Raptors don't obtain another big man who is of starter quality.

We shall see

Here is the list from 2008-09 of the games he started at the beginning of the year before being pulled from the starting lineup

Date----Opponent-Score with Pistons number on the left
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Oct 29 vs Indiana 23-17
Nov 01 vs Was 31-21
Nov 03 vs Char 23-14
Nov 05 vs Tor 20-23
Nov 07 vs N.J. 27-14
Nov 09 vs Bos 19-17
Sac 11 vs Sac 18-31

[Tim W.]

Can he start and only average 25 mpg? I think it would be difficult.

Care to elaborate on this?

[LBF]

homecourt discount hes having fun here he'll be signed once bosh makes up his mind which may be never.

[hateslosing]

I don't see any reason that Amir Johnson needs to score more than he did this year. He is a good player, a great hustle guy, rebounder and defender and that is what we need from him. As a scorer there is no reason to think he should be anything but the last option on the floor unless he's wide open at the rim.
As far as his contract, 5 million a year for 3 years (give or take) sounds reasonable.

[Buddahfan]

I said this last season that I can see him playing 20 - 25 mpg in 2010-11 with improved scoring. I can envision something like 10-12 ppg and 6-7 rpg if he averages close to 25 mpg.

I think at 20-25 mpg that he will still be a net positive on the court in 2010-11.

I don't know if he is ready to handle 30+ mpg on a regular basis. I think he needs to score more before he starts to get some breaks on the calls by the officials. He still needs to learn how to not commit so many dumb fouls and better position himself as well as continue to improve his footwork on both offense and defense. He needs to learn how to successfully take a charge. Hopefully Carlesimo can help him with his defense like English has and continues to do with his offense.

Can he start and only average 25 mpg? I think it would be difficult.

I think for him to average anything over 25 mpg at this point would require him to reduce his effectiveness on defense and the offensive glass unless he can make some significant strides in reducing his fouls without comprising his effectiveness on defense.

Could he be effective at this point playing 30+ a game. If and when I see it happen then I will comment on that

[Quixotic]

Okay so the Raptors did not sign Evans, my bad. However, they are still paying him aren't they?

Have you ever admitted to being wrong, without trying to find a way to make yourself correct anyway? Please answer that question first.

What a world we would be in if we could just completely ignore qualifying statements. Please re-read the bolded portions.

It's one thing to admit to being wrong on who signed Evans, but if you already admitted to being wrong about the Raptors deeming Evans worth $5 mil you would not ask the above repeatedly.

The rest was deemed tl;dr by virtue of completely missing the above, sorry.

[Quixotic]

I "manipulated" these stats on a 25 min basis. Why? Drew played 25 per game last year and is not getting any younger. Late in the season - with Bosh out - Johnson consistently played >25 minutes. His numbers show an average of 4.4 PF over 25 min, so it's reasonable that he can generally stay in the game that long.

First of all, I have no idea what people meant by you manipulating the stats, so let's just get that out of the way. I also don't really care about the Gooden comparison. Anywho...

I would be hesitant to extrapolate Amir's stats to 25 minutes for the following reasons:

1) The sample size of games in which he "consistently played >25 minutes" is too small. At most, if you count the Chicago game which was a little under 25 minutes, he had four consecutive >25 minute games. I think you'll agree that four games is too small for any kind of extrapolation, especially when two of them were against teams that had mailed it in.

2) 4.4 fouls per game is already on the wrong side of the high end. If you look at the highest avg fouls per game for the last 5 seasons, there were two cases of 4.0 (one being an injured Oden) and usually it was a bit less. It's the same as why you wouldn't say Amir could potentially average ~36.7 minutes a game with 5.9 fouls per game. It would be possible if he always obtained the 4th, 5th or 6th fouls after the same minutes played every game, but because they sometimes come after only 10 minutes, he can't make up the difference by simply playing more minutes the next game. Of course, this is a lot more evident as a sub with a lower ceiling on minutes per game; as a starter I could see him averaging 25 minutes a game, but how will it affect his defense over the course of a season?

[Buddahfan]

I think when you get into the MLE range and slightly above a lot of times the contract can be based upon a teams needs as much as anything else.

Look at Reggie Evans - He got a 2 year $10 million deal from the Raptors. Gooden is definitely better than Evans.

As far as Johnson compared to Gooden we will just have to wait and see how it unfolds.

As far as a player reaching their peak. That can be measured in a number of ways. It took Michael I believe 8 years in the NBA before he won a title. Lebron still hasn't.

There is a lot more to a good players games than just stats. Athletically most basketball players may peak around 25 however, their overall game can continue to grow well into their late twenties and even as late as their early thirties before it peaks.

Okay so the Raptors did not sign Evans, my bad. However, they are still paying him aren't they?

Did Philly take back some of the $10 million? If not the Raptors are paying it so they are paying Evans $5 million a year. It is irrelevant if the Raptors dumped Kapono in the process because they could have got a player making less money for Kapono or just did a buyout.

Unless Philly is paying part of the $10 million in cash then it is costing the Raptors $5 million a year for Evans regardless of how they obtained him and whether or not their overall payroll went down in the process of acquiring him.

===============
P.S. It is my opinion that the Raptors and Johnson already have a deal. It has not been announced and I doubt submitted to the NBA league office for approval but I am sure that they already have a deal which was finalized when Johnson was here recently. He was still under contract to the Raptors at the time so once the season ended for the Raptors they were allowed to negotiate with him for a new contract.

It will be interesting to see how much the Raptors are paying him. My guess is for 4 years at between $20 and $25 million.

Have you ever admitted to being wrong, without trying to find a way to make yourself correct anyway? Please answer that question first.

I said that the Raptors signed him to a $10 million contract. I was wrong that they signed him but the main point is that he is getting $5 million a year and it is being paid in cash by the Raptors.

It is irrelevant who initially signed him to his current contract. What is relevant is who is paying him. No one is forcing the Raptors to pay him that $5 million a year. They did not have to trade for him and agree to pay him. They agreed to trade for him and pay him $5 million a year so clearly that is what he is worth to MLSE and BC $5 million a year. If he wasn't I am sure that they could buy him out or trade him, which they may do.

Were you ever on a debating team, in politics or in sales? Probably not because you would realize that that is what debaters, politicians and sales people do all the time along with philosophers. They try and counter arguments to win their point. Nothing wrong with this as long as you don't lie or make things up to support your point.

[Mess]

The Raptors are also paying M. Banks $5M in cash too. You trade one mistake for another mistake that hopefully fits better, that's pretty much the best you can hope for.

And buyouts do effect cap space. The buyout price is averaged over the remaining years of the contract. (I think)

[Quixotic]

Are the Raptors paying Evans $5 million cash a year for two years or not? Please answer that question.

Have you ever admitted to being wrong, without trying to find a way to make yourself correct anyway? Please answer that question first.

[Quixotic]

Okay so the Raptors did not sign Evans, my bad. However, they are still paying him aren't they?

Did Philly take back some of the $10 million? If not the Raptors are paying it so they are paying Evans $5 million a year. It is irrelevant if the Raptors dumped Kapono in the process because they could have got a player making less money for Kapono or just did a buyout.

This is a horrible argument. Your original point was that the Raptors felt Evans was worth $5 mil a year because we gave him that deal. You can say the Raptors felt Kapono was worth the MLE deal he got because we signed him to that. But it would be just as incorrect to say Evans is worth $5 mil just because it's not subsidized (and why should it when we're not subsidizing Kapono) as it would be to say we felt Nesterovic was worth the $8+ mil he was paid by us during his first Raptors tour. The only thing you can say about either of those two cases is that the Raptors felt Evans was a better fit than Kapono, who was no longer worth the MLE to the Raptors, and Nesterovic was a better fit than Eric Williams + Matt Bonner combined.

You mention getting a player making less money or doing a buyout, but the former is irrelevant (#1 what would be in it for the other team to give us considerably less in salary while taking Kapono's bad contract off our hands, and #2 if you're getting a bad contract in return, you might as well go for fit) and the latter... what do you think players are willing to be bought out for? Obviously neither Evans nor Kapono would be willing to be bought out at an amount that would be worth the Raptors while. Deciding to pay $5 mil a year (to have a warm body on your roster) rather than paying $4-4.5 mil a year (to probably have to find another contract to sit at the end of your bench) does not mean the player is worth $5 mil. If anything, the worth of the player would be more accurately defined by the potential savings the team would obtain via buy out.

[Buddahfan]

I'd like to see them offer 3 or 4 years at less per year.
Seems like the year when a lot of players will be overpaid. (See Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Darko Milicic, etc)

I agree that Johnson and Gay are being overpaid but not Darko.

How many games have you seen Darko play in over the last 3 years especially last season when he was with the T-Wolves. My guess not even five?

I saw him play at least 10 games last season. He is not being over paid

[Buddahfan]

It's 100% relevant - buying a player out doesn't affect the cap space. By obtaining Evans, you're saving >$3 million over 3 seasons and *potentially* were getting a better fit for the team (if he wasn't injured). You could not have gotten a player making less money as per the trade rules. You *may* have received a player(s) with a shorter contract, but it was unlikely any team would give that up to obtain Kapono.

Paying Kapono big money for a lot of years was BC's mistake. Trading for Evans was not - at worst it was net neutral.

A long term deal with Gooden will not look good in a year or two. Just like Kapono. Just like Turkoglu.

Are the Raptors paying Evans $5 million cash a year for two years or not? Please answer that question.

[Liston]

So would signing Amir to that contract be overpaying him? or just about right? Who cares about Evans and Gooden.

I'd like to see them offer 3 or 4 years at less per year.
Seems like the year when a lot of players will be overpaid. (See Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, Darko Milicic, etc)