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  • NBA Draft 2011: Why Winning the NBA Draft Lottery Might Lead to Failure

    Following both the 2000 and 2006 Drafts, the non-elite No. 1 picks (Kenyon Martin and Andrea Bargnani, respectively) were saddled with unrealistic expectations (Martin, to reclaim his once elite leaping ability after a broken leg, and Bargnani, to be an Italian Dirk Nowitzki.) by sinking franchises in hope of a spark. Both fizzled under the glaring spotlight as top pick but continue to be able-bodied NBA contributors.

    If everyone who is projected to leave school actually does so, I see six guaranteed eight-plus year NBA contributors—Irving, Barnes, Terrence Jones, Morehead State PF Kenneth Faried, Walker and Jimmer Fredette.

    You may disagree with that list and I like other players on the board as well, but these are six guys whose fail quotient is less than 15 percent.

    In Irving and Barnes, you’re getting players who will be at or near the top of most draft boards who possess no elite talents but show no glaring weaknesses, either.

    As for the other four players on the list, you’re getting a guarantee without having to pay a top-five price****.

    ****Exception: If Terrence Jones goes off in individual workouts, he could very easily slip into the top five.

    Both Faried and everyone’s favorite Mormon possess elite translatable skills that won’t go away, regardless of whether they’re playing in the NBA or some local YMCA league.

    For Faried, all he needs is to spend some time in the weight room before he realizes his destiny as Ben Wallace 2.0.
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/6...ead-to-failure
    Last edited by grindhouse; Fri Apr 8, 2011, 04:19 AM.

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    • Yeah I dunno about that. I'll take Irving gladly, I'm not stupid.
      @sweatpantsjer

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      • The Lottery

        No "who should we draft?" questions here. Just wondering if anyone knows how the balls are split if there are teams tied with terrible records (it looks like there may be a few 22-60 teams out there, present complany included). I think we lost a coin toss last year but I'm not sure if that applies to the truly elite bad teams. The best info I have found is in the link below. Does anyone know when the lottery is?

        http://www.nba.com/news/tiebreaker_030428.html

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        • In the event that teams finish with the same record, each tied team receives the average of the total number of combinations for the positions that they occupy. In 2007, the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Portland Trail Blazers tied for the sixth worst record. The average of the 6th and 7th positions in the lottery was taken, resulting in each team getting 53 combinations (the average of 63 and 43). Should the average number not be an integer, a coin flip is then used to determine which team or teams receive the extra combination(s). The result of the coin flip is also used to determine who receives the earlier pick in the event that neither of the tied teams wins one of the first three picks via the lottery.
          http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

          With that being said, if Washington and Toronto end the season tied for 3rd worst record, they will be unable to do an average between 3-4 (156 ball and 119 balls, average is 137.5) and it would therefore be decided by a coin toss.
          Last edited by Shantz; Fri Apr 8, 2011, 11:27 AM.
          http://twitter.com/m_shantz

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          • That sounds right. Thanks

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            • Raptors_ wrote: View Post
              Here is who they think we should draft. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/6...-draft#page/28
              They suggest the 'Dunking Ninja' Jan Vesely. Which I'm not completely against.
              But I liked this one about Perry Jones. From your link:

              "[Perry] Jones is a once in a lifetime type of talent. He possesses extreme athleticism, quickness and dribbling skills to become a huge NBA stud."
              I agree with this. We should take him.

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              • jeff_hostetler wrote: View Post
                True, but that's fine. I never said they'd start winning right away. Plus their bench would have Calderon, Barbosa, Kleiza, Evans if he's still here next year. They're all vets with tons of experience.

                How many rebuilding teams could say they've completed their rebuild in 1 year, having every starting position set with youth and near prototypical talent (for example, no PFs masquerading as Cs, or no SGs masquerading as PGs)?
                i was saying it was a positive because we can shore up another position

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                • i kind of want barnes the most because of his shooting james johnson isn't really starters material but i have feeling irving is a cant miss player.

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                  • Can't really go wrong with either, but Irvings ceiling is much higher. Think the second coming of Chris Paul.
                    @sweatpantsjer

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                    • ceez wrote: View Post
                      Can't really go wrong with either, but Irvings ceiling is much higher. Think the second coming of Chris Paul.
                      Hell I say BOTH!

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                      • Well obviously but let's talk realistically
                        @sweatpantsjer

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                        • Unless you mean Irving this year and Barnes next, to which I offer you a jumping high five.
                          @sweatpantsjer

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                          • ceez wrote: View Post
                            Unless you mean Irving this year and Barnes next, to which I offer you a jumping high five.
                            That is possible, he seems 50-50 on the draft this year.

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                            • Zach in Austin, TX:
                              Who would you compare Kyrie Irving to in the league? What do you think is the best destination for Kyrie?

                              Alex Kennedy:
                              I have heard Kyrie Irving compared to everyone from Mike Conley Jr. to Chris Paul, but I don't take much stock in comparisons at this point. I think he's going to be a phenomenal player that can hurt teams with his scoring, passing and defense. Also, he's a great leader and has the personality to be a superstar at the next level. I*think the perfect landing spot for Kyrie would be Sacramento because he would already have weapons in Tyreke Evans and DeMarcus Cousins.
                              I have a message for Kyrie, Jonas, and Harrison (or any combination):



                              Toronto, discover the feeling!

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                              • We should draft Jan Vesley. He is basically a better version of Perry Jones. If we can draft him and flip Bargnani for Kanter or Valanciunas our rebuild would be completed.

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