Tim W. wrote:
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NBA's Most Harmful Players
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Hugmenot wrote: View PostFlynn took a much higher percentage of jump shots in his second year and drew fouls at a much lower rate.
Was his role changed so drastically? I have no clue as I did not watched any basketball games from 2002-03 to 2009-10. Was he not entirely recovered from the hip injury? Is it a permanent result of the injury?
Personally, I think it is a very low risk and high reward situation.
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Tim W. wrote: View PostI came across this article about the NBA's most harmful players.. Guess who's #1?
Interestingly, Johnny Flynn is 6th. Will playing in a different system help? Is this the exact same excuse people use for Bargnani?
There aren't too many surprises on the list. Guys I've never liked, like Villanueva and Aaron Brooks.
Oh, and Minnesota has 3 of the top 6, including 2 and 3. Is it any wonder they finished with the worst record?
First, I'd like to point out that most "combination stats" (for lack of a better name) should be avoided. All they really do is total up a bunch of stats with an arbitrary rating system picked by the stat's creator, then the creator holds it out as declaring some truth not seen before. I've been verbal against the Wins Produced stat over at Wages of Wins, and I have to be verbal against this "Value" stat as well.
The Win Score "stat" is actually pretty harmless on its own, as it's not normalized against anything. It is, simply put, just an arbitrary tally of individual stats. The problem starts, however, when Mr. Courtside Analyst ("CA" for short henceforth) compares it to the opposing Win Score. Just to illustrate why this comparison doesn't prove anything really, let's shift Bargnani's position to shooting guard. Had Bargnani actually played SG, needless to say he probably would have been a bigger defensive liability this past season, being useless both on help defense and on man defense, requiring the rest of the team to cover for him. However, even if the average opposing SG played exactly like Kobe (9.23 WS) over the course of a season, Bargnani's oppWS would still unlikely be anywhere close to the 14.34 opposing centers post against him, simply because they wouldn't rebound like bigs. In short, this guy's method would show Bargnani to be less of a problem at SG, when he'd actually be even worse. This is the exact same conclusion that the normalized Wins Produced stat erroneously makes as well, btw.
So even though WS - oppWS means very little, CA takes that difference, divides it by two, converts it into a Win% (let's assume that this part is statistically sound), and applies it to each player's share of games to come up with wins and losses contributed to. CA then takes the difference again (between wins and losses), divides that by two, and adds the result to wins contributed to. Thus, "Value" is basically 0.5 (W - L) + W, or:
1.5W - 0.5L
Some additional food for thought: if we are to treat this new "Value" stat as scientific, we also have to accept that Calderon was the MVP for the team, and not, as many here think, insufficiently good at at offense to cover for his defensive shortcomings.
p.s. This wasn't an attack on you, Tim, but on CA.Last edited by Quixotic; Fri May 20, 2011, 08:28 PM.
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Quixotic wrote: View PostI guess you're no longer coming over tonight.
I think you can forgive me though as I'm now in the "let's look for a trade partner for Bargnani" camp.Read my blog, The Picket Fence. Guaranteed to make you think or your money back!
Follow me on Twitter.
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