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"The Lou Williams Situation"

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  • #76
    I really hope the Raps don't re-sign Lou. He's a great individual player, no doubt, but his ability to create ISO offense by himself is counter-productive for team play. It becomes like a crutch for the coaching staff to encourage lack of ball movement and isn't a sustainable style for the playoffs.

    One of the most impressive things about Golden State's playoff run was the almost complete lack of ISO. Even in the last minute of the first 2 close games that went to OT (before the small ball adjustments), with the ball in the hands of their best player (Curry) and shot creator, GSW still moved the ball and found the open man in the corners (e.g. Iggy, Barnes,...). Steve Kerr obviously made it a point to that they were going to live and die by ball movement and by running their offense at all times - and every player on the floor was moving, cutting hard, setting picks and ready to catch, shoot and drive. There was no panic, no fear of turnovers and no lack of trust.

    There are pros and cons to ISO, but part of what the ISO approach implies is that you're scared to run your normal offense because you want to make sure you get at least a contested shot, by putting the ball into the hands of your best ISO creators (i.e. Lou, Lowry, DD), because you don't trust Ross, 2Pat, JV, Amir to make the open shot, or you think they'll make a turnover. The flip-side argument is that you want to live and die with your best players. ISO is great in moderation, but with Lou, it allowed the Raps to have at least 1 ISO creator on the floor at all times, and ultimately too easy to defend in the playoffs, when the scouting improved.

    Combine that with the fact that Lou doesn't help you much on defense, then I think losing him could be addition-by-subtraction, like when Lou was traded from the Hawks and when Gay was traded from the Raps.

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    • #77
      Pro's: -Scoring ability
      -Decent 3pt shooter
      Cons:
      -Mediocre defender
      -Undersized
      -Bad to average ball handling
      -Bad to average passer
      -Contract year performance

      He in no way should be retained whether Raps keep the team togeather or blow it up this offseason. He's going to be offered a premium contract because he won 6th man of the year. All you need to do is replace his 3pt shooting and scoring ability. Someone like Marcus Thornton will do both and the market for him will likely be tepid because of his poor performance last year.

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      • #78
        mrmarket wrote: View Post
        Pro's: -Scoring ability
        -Decent 3pt shooter
        Cons:
        -Mediocre defender
        -Undersized
        -Bad to average ball handling
        -Bad to average passer
        -Contract year performance

        He in no way should be retained whether Raps keep the team togeather or blow it up this offseason. He's going to be offered a premium contract because he won 6th man of the year. All you need to do is replace his 3pt shooting and scoring ability. Someone like Marcus Thornton will do both and the market for him will likely be tepid because of his poor performance last year.

        That's an interesting comp... nice work. One of the biggest discrepancies is in free throws per 36 min, because Lou can create his own shot as good as anybody in the league without ball movement.

        Casey doesn't like passing because it can lead to turnovers, so I'm wondering if we'd end up turning Thornton into a more of dribble-drive player outside his comfort zone (like GV and Ross) and go away from his 3-pt shooting strength, under Casey. Could be an interesting under-valued pickup.

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        • #79
          McRealistic wrote: View Post
          Wishful thinking ... I don't think Raptors can get anything
          Yeah, chances are in such a scenario they're taking on some capped team's bad contract.

          Sent from my Note 3 using Tapatalk

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          • #80
            Apollo wrote: View Post
            Yeah, chances are in such a scenario they're taking on some capped team's bad contract.

            Sent from my Note 3 using Tapatalk
            I'd be ok with a TPE.

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            • #81
              Hahahaha





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              • #82
                Nilanka wrote: View Post
                Hahahaha





                It genuinely looks like his first choice is to return to Toronto.
                "My biggest concern as a coach is to not confuse winning with progress." - Steve Kerr
                "If it's unacceptable in defeat, it's unacceptable in victory." - Jeff Van Gundy

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                • #83
                  Nilanka wrote: View Post
                  Hahahaha





                  Buddy, if we use our max money then we only got ~4 MIL for you. Is that okay?

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                  • #84
                    golden wrote: View Post
                    I really hope the Raps don't re-sign Lou. He's a great individual player, no doubt, but his ability to create ISO offense by himself is counter-productive for team play. It becomes like a crutch for the coaching staff to encourage lack of ball movement and isn't a sustainable style for the playoffs.

                    One of the most impressive things about Golden State's playoff run was the almost complete lack of ISO. Even in the last minute of the first 2 close games that went to OT (before the small ball adjustments), with the ball in the hands of their best player (Curry) and shot creator, GSW still moved the ball and found the open man in the corners (e.g. Iggy, Barnes,...). Steve Kerr obviously made it a point to that they were going to live and die by ball movement and by running their offense at all times - and every player on the floor was moving, cutting hard, setting picks and ready to catch, shoot and drive. There was no panic, no fear of turnovers and no lack of trust.

                    There are pros and cons to ISO, but part of what the ISO approach implies is that you're scared to run your normal offense because you want to make sure you get at least a contested shot, by putting the ball into the hands of your best ISO creators (i.e. Lou, Lowry, DD), because you don't trust Ross, 2Pat, JV, Amir to make the open shot, or you think they'll make a turnover. The flip-side argument is that you want to live and die with your best players. ISO is great in moderation, but with Lou, it allowed the Raps to have at least 1 ISO creator on the floor at all times, and ultimately too easy to defend in the playoffs, when the scouting improved.

                    Combine that with the fact that Lou doesn't help you much on defense, then I think losing him could be addition-by-subtraction, like when Lou was traded from the Hawks and when Gay was traded from the Raps.
                    What percentage of Toronto's plays were ISO in the playoffs?

                    50? No. 40%? Nope. 30????????? Still too high. Must be at least 25%, right? Um, no, little too high. 20? Try again. 15%???????????????????? Oh, just a little high but close.

                    The answer is 11%.

                    Wanna try GSW?

                    0%? No, higher. 5%? Little higher but close. The answer is 7.5%. An interesting side note being that it was Golden State's most effective offensive play outside of Transition plays and off of Cuts (both of which are givens).

                    But I'm sure it was those 4 possessions per game that turned the tide and not the fact that Toronto let Washington score 110 PPG on an efg% of 55% and collect rebounds at a ORB% of 27%. It was all about those 4 ISO possessions....

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                    • #85
                      slaw wrote: View Post
                      What percentage of Toronto's plays were ISO in the playoffs?

                      50? No. 40%? Nope. 30????????? Still too high. Must be at least 25%, right? Um, no, little too high. 20? Try again. 15%???????????????????? Oh, just a little high but close.

                      The answer is 11%.

                      Wanna try GSW?

                      0%? No, higher. 5%? Little higher but close. The answer is 7.5%. An interesting side note being that it was Golden State's most effective offensive play outside of Transition plays and off of Cuts (both of which are givens).

                      But I'm sure it was those 4 possessions per game that turned the tide and not the fact that Toronto let Washington score 110 PPG on an efg% of 55% and collect rebounds at a ORB% of 27%. It was all about those 4 ISO possessions....
                      Not sure where those numbers come from, Synergy perhaps, but this is where you have to go with the eye test. Anybody thinking that Steve Kerr's ball movement offense even remotely resembles Casey's "we-don't-have-the-personnel-to-pass" system is drawing faulty conclusions from the data available.

                      There is an inherent flaw in Synergy (and other analytics systems) as was pointed out by Stan Van Gundy at the MIT Sloan Analytics conference a few years back. The problem is that the guys who are collecting data are making assumptions on a number of important things: (1) what intention of the play was & (2) what category the play should go into. These are things that only the coach and players might know. SVG discussed one example where he said that one team was being shown on Synergy as running a lot of PnR but not being successful at it. SVG said that a lot of times, as a coach, you are using PnR to get into other sets, so Synergy would have that as a failed PnR, where it was really just a dummy play that shouldn't even be logged. I'm a big fan of analytics, but that has to be taken within context and limitations.

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                      • #86
                        golden wrote: View Post
                        Not sure where those numbers come from, Synergy perhaps, but this is where you have to go with the eye test. Anybody thinking that Steve Kerr's ball movement offense even remotely resembles Casey's "we-don't-have-the-personnel-to-pass" system is drawing faulty conclusions from the data available.

                        There is an inherent flaw in Synergy (and other analytics systems) as was pointed out by Stan Van Gundy at the MIT Sloan Analytics conference a few years back. The problem is that the guys who are collecting data are making assumptions on a number of important things: (1) what intention of the play was & (2) what category the play should go into. These are things that only the coach and players might know. SVG discussed one example where he said that one team was being shown on Synergy as running a lot of PnR but not being successful at it. SVG said that a lot of times, as a coach, you are using PnR to get into other sets, so Synergy would have that as a failed PnR, where it was really just a dummy play that shouldn't even be logged. I'm a big fan of analytics, but that has to be taken within context and limitations.
                        Numbers are all from nba.com.

                        And I'm not comparing GSW's offense to Toronto's but merely pointing out that the meme that all Toronto did was run ISO and that it was the Raptor's undoing is belied by the numbers we have available to us.

                        As for the eye test, well, I can't dispute what your eyes tell you cause they are your eyes. I do however question the subjective judgment of someone who thinks that having a top 5 offense in the NBA is "easy" and "any team can do it" as you've posted elsewhere. So, I'll go with the numbers available and my own subjective judgment of the playoff offense, which is that it was an absolute mess cause of terrible guard play and decision-making.

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                        • #87
                          slaw wrote: View Post
                          Numbers are all from nba.com.

                          And I'm not comparing GSW's offense to Toronto's but merely pointing out that the meme that all Toronto did was run ISO and that it was the Raptor's undoing is belied by the numbers we have available to us.

                          As for the eye test, well, I can't dispute what your eyes tell you cause they are your eyes. I do however question the subjective judgment of someone who thinks that having a top 5 offense in the NBA is "easy" and "any team can do it" as you've posted elsewhere. So, I'll go with the numbers available and my own subjective judgment of the playoff offense, which is that it was an absolute mess cause of terrible guard play and decision-making.
                          dont forget GSW steamrolled teams in the playoff while Raptors were getting blown out. playing ISO while never getting stops is different then going ISO up 10 in control

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                          • #88
                            A Steph Curry iso is a little different than a DD iso as well.

                            But I do agree with slaw's point that all of this iso talk is way overblown. But what helps the perception is not the % of overall plays that end up in so, it's the situations the iso plays are used.

                            But then again, there were some pretty bad iso plays in the Finals by both Lebron and Curry.
                            Two beer away from being two beers away.

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                            • #89
                              Mess wrote: View Post
                              A Steph Curry iso is a little different than a DD iso as well.

                              But I do agree with slaw's point that all of this iso talk is way overblown. But what helps the perception is not the % of overall plays that end up in so, it's the situations the iso plays are used.

                              But then again, there were some pretty bad iso plays in the Finals by both Lebron and Curry.
                              Generally, Curry will make the pass when possible. Compare it to Demar and Kyle, they sometimes don't have a clue when to pass the damn ball!!

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                              • #90
                                Golden state has a team of good passers

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