Everything Derozan

[Barolt]

Its pretty messed up if the day after saying he's not doing something its announce he is actually doing it. Maybe his agent gave Ujiri the number and Ujiri fell out of his chair in shock and/or amusement?

Well, here's the thing. Both leaks(that he isn't, and that he is) come from sources who likely aren't DeMar or Masai. They might be from one of their camps, or the might not. It all might just be stuff someone's making up. Who knows.

Like I said, the second one I have no idea if it's reliable. The first one(not taking meetings with other teams) was from someone from ESPN, which in theory is reliable, but... Stephen A. Smith works there too.

[3inthekeon]

Kevin Pelton Insider on the top 25 FA's

To rank the best players eligible for free agency, I used my SCHOENE projection system to forecast how free agents will perform over the next three seasons. I also factored in ESPN's real plus-minus to come up with a comprehensive estimate of how many wins above replacement player (WARP) players will provide over that span, which is a good trade-off between the short- and long-term considerations that go into free agency.

#14 DeMar DeRozan

Projected 3-Year WARP: 13.9 | 2015-16 RPM: 0.2 | 2015-16 WARP: 7.5

Public opinion on DeRozan might have overcorrected during Toronto's playoff run. While I was skeptical of DeRozan's All-Star candidacy, his ability to create shots is valuable so long as he can make them with average efficiency as he did during the regular season (.550 true shooting percentage).

Using WARP, DeRozan is likely to remain a 4-5 win player for the next three to four seasons, which puts his value in the neighborhood of his max salary.

[Barolt]

For those who are expecting a discount from DeMar... I've seen several sources now, from different media outlets, saying that DeMar will be pursuing a max deal.

[slaw]

Projected 3-Year WARP: 13.9 | 2015-16 RPM: 0.2 | 2015-16 WARP: 7.5

Public opinion on DeRozan might have overcorrected during Toronto's playoff run. While I was skeptical of DeRozan's All-Star candidacy, his ability to create shots is valuable so long as he can make them with average efficiency as he did during the regular season (.550 true shooting percentage).

Using WARP, DeRozan is likely to remain a 4-5 win player for the next three to four seasons, which puts his value in the neighborhood of his max salary.

So, their model predicts he will drop from 7.5 to 4-5 next year. Quite the model to predict that kind of variance. But it stays at 4-5 the next two seasons? Okay. Sounds solid to me.

By the way, no one let's these sports economists invest money for them, right? No? Phew. Just checking.

[slaw]

For those who are expecting a discount from DeMar... I've seen several sources now, from different media outlets, saying that DeMar will be pursuing a max deal.

I recommend: Getting to Yes; How to Win Friends and Influence People; Beyond the Chicken Dance; and Pitch Anything; for your summer reading pleasure.....

[Barolt]

So, their model predicts he will drop from 7.5 to 4-5 next year. Quite the model to predict that kind of variance. But it stays at 4-5 the next two seasons? Okay. Sounds solid to me.

By the way, no one let's these sports economists invest money for them, right? No? Phew. Just checking.

The big question with DeMar is, will his free throw rate be sustainable? Lots of guys have had .45 FTr on 25%+ usage once or twice, but very few did it more than that. If his free throw rate drops off, it's safe to say his efficiency will as well, and that's a problem for his game.

[Barolt]

I recommend: Getting to Yes; How to Win Friends and Influence People; Beyond the Chicken Dance; and Pitch Anything; for your summer reading pleasure.....

I've read all of those, and been involved in negotiations. I also know that when a player who's career earnings aren't terribly high gets an opportunity at a massive payday in a situation that won't likely replicate again in their career, they generally go for the payday.

Historical trends say that guys like DeMar, All-Stars but not All-NBA guys, only get 1, maybe 2 chances at a huge payday. They aren't generally the type to take paycuts on their big one. Maybe I'm wrong, but I do know how to find historical trends.

[slaw]

The big question with DeMar is, will his free throw rate be sustainable? Lots of guys have had .45 FTr on 25%+ usage once or twice, but very few did it more than that. If his free throw rate drops off, it's safe to say his efficiency will as well, and that's a problem for his game.

Well, he's been at 45%, 44% and 47% the last three seasons. So, since he altered his game in his first all-star season, he's done it three times - pretty consistent. Seems like it might be sustainable given that he's still in his prime. That and the fact the team around him keeps getting better won't hurt....

[ebrian]

I know this is completely unrelated to what has been discussed for the past few pages, but I really hope that DeMar and Kyle spend a hefty amount of time befriending DeMarcus this summer on Team USA.

[Barolt]

Well, he's been at 45%, 44% and 47% the last three seasons. So, since he altered his game in his first all-star season, he's done it three times - pretty consistent. Seems like it might be sustainable given that he's still in his prime. That and the fact the team around him keeps getting better won't hurt....

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...t=&order_by=ws

There are 38 seasons of guards in the NBA having 45% FTr, 25% usage, 50 GP, and over 25 MPG in the 3pt era.

Only 6 of those seasons were after the age of 27. Two by Dwyane Wade, one by Reggie Miller, and 3 by Allen Iverson.

It's a legitimate concern.

[Chr1s1anL]

It's nice to have a player that treats the raptor organization with respect for once.

[grindhouse]

Everything Demar Derozan

I hope the offer is so low that he refuses to sign. We need to move on from this guy. He is just not good enough and he is not going to be a role player


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[slaw]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/...t=&order_by=ws

There are 38 seasons of guards in the NBA having 45% FTr, 25% usage, 50 GP, and over 25 MPG in the 3pt era.

Only 6 of those seasons were after the age of 27. Two by Dwyane Wade, one by Reggie Miller, and 3 by Allen Iverson.

It's a legitimate concern.

If I change it to 43%FTr I get 57 seasons. At 40%Ftr I get 78 results.

Here's an even more interesting one. Simply changing the USG% to 20% I get 100 results. At 22% USG I get 81 results.

Is there a reason those particular benchmarks you are using matter other than that they help make your point?

Just make the point that DD needs to sustain his FTr to be effective and if he doesn't it will a problem. Cherry picking numbers undermines your position, it doesn't enhance it.

[Barolt]

If I change it to 43%FTr I get 57 seasons. At 40%Ftr I get 78 results.

Here's an even more interesting one. Simply changing the USG% to 20% I get 100 results. At 22% USG I get 81 results.

Is there a reason those particular benchmarks you are using matter other than that they help make your point?

Just make the point that DD needs to sustain his FTr to be effective and if he doesn't it will a problem. Cherry picking numbers undermines your position, it doesn't enhance it.

I was actually pretty generous, His usage was 29.8% this past season, I went 25%. I went 25MPG, he played 35.9. I set it at 50 GP, when DeMar played 78.

I gave him a lot of room to regress and still remain on the list.

[DanH]

So, their model predicts he will drop from 7.5 to 4-5 next year. Quite the model to predict that kind of variance. But it stays at 4-5 the next two seasons? Okay. Sounds solid to me.

By the way, no one let's these sports economists invest money for them, right? No? Phew. Just checking.

The model predicts a drop because he hasn't been consistent. He was good two seasons ago, terrible a season ago, and great this season. Hence the model hedging on his wins going forward.