Everything Derozan

[tDotted]

There's an easy answer here. Casey smartened up and started using both stars consistently with the bench units. So DeMar's "off" rating went from a bunch of scrubs playing together, to Lowry ravaging opposing bench units.

I don't think that makes up for the big difference there though. Derozan was actually rocking the highest MPG on the team for those seasons so shouldn't that mean even more playing time without Lowry? It was only these last two seasons that Lowry has exceeded DeMar's MPG for the year.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Raps were 14-7 without our "impact" player, Lowry. It was an easier schedule, but still that is clearly a major impact being made by DeMar - without Lowry. As Shaolin pointed out, the "team construct" without Lowry made an adjustment in style to have more ball movement, better decision making and better team defense. Your ongoing thesis seems to be that this team will completely fall apart without Lowry, but that doesn't necessarily hold water. The Raps and DeMar seemed to play more like a team and better defense when Lowry was out, but lost that chemistry when Lowry returned.

Case in point: using your impact stats, heading into the playoffs the Raps should have been championship-level dominant if you could simply add the numerical impact that Lowry is supposed to bring and subtract Joseph. But it doesn't exactly work that way on the court because of chemistry.

I didn't say this part, because I'm not sure about it. The assist rate during that stretch was 46.1%. Assist rate pre-ASB was 47.2%.

What I found to be interesting though was DeMar's usage rate actually remained about the same during that stretch, in fact it went down slightly from 34.0% to 33.8%. We were running the offense through him, but I think other guys also got a bigger workload. Powell went from 19% to 25% usage for example. So while the assist rate didn't go up, it did seem like more guys were getting involved, just not necessarily from assists.

The main point is the same though like you said. The team didn't fall apart without Kyle. However we did have a better platoon of defenders then than we do now, particularly with Tucker and 2Pat in the fold. But basically the strategy to win with a guy like DeMar or Kyrie as your lead in our system, is to let them soak up possessions and carry the offense, and put in a top level defense so that the team's overall offensive production outweighs your defense enough for you to win. It's how the Sixers were able to win 56 games in 2001 and get to the NBA Finals.

[DanH]

Yeah, the team did well with only DeMar, without Kyle, against a very weak schedule, and with huge upgrades happening coincident with Kyle's loss (Ibaka and Tucker).

And they struggled when Kyle came back as they a) had to learn to play together (heck, it took the rest of them a while after the all star break to start clicking), and b) immediately got thrown into the playoffs where coaching matters, and the Bucks' traps destroyed the Raptors' offence until Casey finally adjusted a few games in (at which point they ran the Bucks off the floor as you'd expect).

[DanH]

I don't think that makes up for the big difference there though. Derozan was actually rocking the highest MPG on the team for those seasons so shouldn't that mean even more playing time without Lowry? It was only these last two seasons that Lowry has exceeded DeMar's MPG for the year.

Huh? Not sure what you mean. Total MPG is irrelevant, it's the distribution of those minutes together versus apart. The minutes where DeMar sat used to be made up of just a bunch of bench guys struggling against other benches. Lately, those minutes have been almost exclusively Lowry ripping opposing benches to shreds.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Yeah, the team did well with only DeMar, without Kyle, against a very weak schedule, and with huge upgrades happening coincident with Kyle's loss (Ibaka and Tucker).

And they struggled when Kyle came back as they a) had to learn to play together (heck, it took the rest of them a while after the all star break to start clicking), and b) immediately got thrown into the playoffs where coaching matters, and the Bucks' traps destroyed the Raptors' offence until Casey finally adjusted a few games in (at which point they ran the Bucks off the floor as you'd expect).

Why didn't they have to learn to play together during the 14-7 stretch without Kyle? In fact that should've been even more unfamiliar, considering the team's best player wasn't playing.

And lol at coaching only mattering in the playoffs.

[DanH]

Why didn't they have to learn to play together during the 14-7 stretch without Kyle? In fact that should've been even more unfamiliar, considering the team's best player wasn't playing.

And lol at coaching only mattering in the playoffs.

They did, I explicitly said so in my comment. You know, in the brackets right after the comment you highlighted? The first few games after the break were rough, with a couple good ones and a couple absolute stinkers before they hit their stride.

Coaching always matters to some degree, but strategic decisions come to the forefront in the playoffs. Surely you don't disagree with the sentiment, nor the observation about the Bucks' trapping (exactly the sort of tailored strategy you don't typically see in the regular season).

[tDotted]

Huh? Not sure what you mean. Total MPG is irrelevant, it's the distribution of those minutes together versus apart. The minutes where DeMar sat used to be made up of just a bunch of bench guys struggling against other benches. Lately, those minutes have been almost exclusively Lowry ripping opposing benches to shreds.

I don't think that's particularly true. Minutes were definitely staggered between Lowry and DeMar those years.

This is how our year-to-year bench net rating has ranked in the league since 2014
6th
2nd
2nd
3rd (2017)

Consistently at around the top. So it's not really Lowry + bench killing teams that has all of a sudden hurt DeMar's on/off.

[tDotted]

Another thing that's interesting about the DeMar/Lowry dynamic:

When Lowry doesn't suit up for the game, DeMar's able to prop up a reasonably good offense and maintain a consistently great impact.

When Lowry does suit up but is on the bench, DeMar's not able to lead good offensive production and struggles to make a consistently great impact.

We saw this with the Raptors post-ASB able to maintain a good record and good offense with DeMar as the main guy but then that instantly flipped once the playoffs rolled around. The Raps were 13.6 points worse when Lowry was on the bench and DeMar was still in the game. However we were also almost 10 points better than that mark when Lowry could not play at all.

I haven't seen a good explanation for this yet. The bench production is not the factor here.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

Another thing that's interesting about the DeMar/Lowry dynamic:

When Lowry doesn't suit up for the game, DeMar's able to prop up a reasonably good offense and maintain a consistently great impact.

When Lowry does suit up but is on the bench, DeMar's not able to lead good offensive production and struggles to make a consistently great impact.

We saw this with the Raptors post-ASB able to maintain a good record and good offense with DeMar as the main guy but then that instantly flipped once the playoffs rolled around. The Raps were 13.6 points worse when Lowry was on the bench and DeMar was still in the game. However we were also almost 10 points better than that mark when Lowry could not play at all.

I haven't seen a good explanation for this yet. The bench production is not the factor here.

The bench production is the factor. In the first scenario you're talking about the team for the entire game when DeMar is active and Lowry is not. Most of those minutes for DeMar were played with the other key starters like Ibaka, JV, etc. In those DeMar+Bench lineups he's playing with much worse players.

The point is DeMar cannot prop up mediocre players, especially when you factor in how poor the spacing is in our DeMar+Bench lineups, where the only shooter is 2Pat and it's questionable even calling him a shooter (he spreads the floor yes, but he doesn't actually make shots at a high clip). The spacing isn't as poor with Kyle because he himself is a shooter and he moves into more of an off-ball role with CoJo next to him. He's also more capable of propping up those guys than DeMar is.

Fwiw this is part of why I'm very worried about the bench unit this year. I doubt Powell is going to start, so that means the bench unit is going to be Wright-Powell-DeMar-Siakam-Poeltl. Not one single reliable shooter on the court. That is going to be absolutely fucking brutal to watch offensively at times (it should be an ok defensive lineup though). Another reason why I'd rather JV come off the bench, because he can at least hit out to 17-20 feet or so, so his mid-range game could open the driving lanes up a little. DeMar playing with two traditional bigs and two slashing guards is a disaster waiting to happen offensively.

[golden]

^^ Yep. And Lowry's impact looks even better because when he was off, the guy who was usually on was CoJo. CoJo is a PG who can't break down the defense or doesn't shoot the 3 enough to be a legitimate spacing threat which makes him a bad fit with DeMar, especially when you toss in another non-floor spacer like JV. So, unless that group is committed to defense, it's a bad look. And yet they did exactly that (commit to defense) for that 14-7 stretch without Lowry, which shows how much a difference that coaching, system and player mindset can make even with the same players. And 21 games is not a small sample, relative to an 82 game season.

[Shaolin Fantastic]

^^ Yep. And Lowry's impact looks even better because when he was off, the guy who was usually on was CoJo. CoJo is a PG who can't break down the defense or doesn't shoot the 3 enough to be a legitimate spacing threat which makes him a bad fit with DeMar, especially when you toss in another non-floor spacer like JV. So, unless that group is committed to defense, it's a bad look. And yet they did exactly that (commit to defense) for that 14-7 stretch without Lowry, which shows how much a difference that coaching, system and player mindset can make even with the same players. And 21 games is not a small sample, relative to an 82 game season.

Yep. 14-7 grades out to about 55-27 over the course of a full season. Yeah the schedule might have been a little easier than the overall sched for the season, but that bumps it down to what, maybe high 40s low 50s wins, which is what we got last year anyway.

We really need to stop acting like Lowry is carrying the team and it'd be terrible without him. He's not LeBron where the Cavs are -8.2 with him off the floor and can't win a game (as of January 2017 they were 4-18 in games he doesn't play since he came back, not sure what it is now).

[LJ2]

Another thing that's interesting about the DeMar/Lowry dynamic:

When Lowry doesn't suit up for the game, DeMar's able to prop up a reasonably good offense and maintain a consistently great impact.

When Lowry does suit up but is on the bench, DeMar's not able to lead good offensive production and struggles to make a consistently great impact.

We saw this with the Raptors post-ASB able to maintain a good record and good offense with DeMar as the main guy but then that instantly flipped once the playoffs rolled around. The Raps were 13.6 points worse when Lowry was on the bench and DeMar was still in the game. However we were also almost 10 points better than that mark when Lowry could not play at all.

I haven't seen a good explanation for this yet. The bench production is not the factor here.

I believe it was a soft point in the schedule when Lowry did not play and DeMar was able to keep the offence going. And of course no matter who you face in the playoffs the defence is going to be tougher with the extra attention given to opposing personnel.

[DanH]

Yep. 14-7 grades out to about 55-27 over the course of a full season. Yeah the schedule might have been a little easier than the overall sched for the season, but that bumps it down to what, maybe high 40s low 50s wins, which is what we got last year anyway.

We really need to stop acting like Lowry is carrying the team and it'd be terrible without him. He's not LeBron where the Cavs are -8.2 with him off the floor and can't win a game (as of January 2017 they were 4-18 in games he doesn't play since he came back, not sure what it is now).

Yeah, but that 14-7 goes along with a +3.7 adjusted net rating over that stretch, which projects to under 51 wins, not 55. And the magic (that is, unsustainable defensive effort from that group) began to wear off by the end, with the defensive ratings over the last 6 games of that stretch being 107, 118, 102, 106, 110, 112. And that's against some brutal offensive opponents - adjusting for opposition, the Raptors managed a DRTG about 6 points worse than average over that final stretch, a 112 DRTG. That would rank... dead last in the league.

Yes, if the team can post a top 5 defensive rating, then they can find success. But that's not ever going to happen, not with DeMar playing so many minutes, not for a longer stretch than the 15 games of elite defence (101 DRTG) they managed. Nevermind that if it did, it would be with a pile of high impact defenders (like CoJo for that short reinvigorated stretch, Ibaka and Tucker), which is exactly what I've been arguing - that DeMar can carry a huge production load if he has players around him to do the stuff that swings team offensive and defensive efficiencies (spreading the floor, defence, etc).

Yes, if the bar is LeBron, Lowry doesn't clear it. But advanced impact stats suggest he is like top 10 in the league, and has been for a couple seasons now. And if we want to be happy with 50 wins being the ceiling of the team, yeah, we can build around DeMar. But this team's ceiling is more like 60 wins right now with Lowry and if everything goes right, and the jump from good to great is the hardest jump to make. It will be very difficult to do it with Lowry. Take him out, and it becomes impossible.

[golden]

Yeah, but that 14-7 goes along with a +3.7 adjusted net rating over that stretch, which projects to under 51 wins, not 55. And the magic (that is, unsustainable defensive effort from that group) began to wear off by the end, with the defensive ratings over the last 6 games of that stretch being 107, 118, 102, 106, 110, 112. And that's against some brutal offensive opponents - adjusting for opposition, the Raptors managed a DRTG about 6 points worse than average over that final stretch, a 112 DRTG. That would rank... dead last in the league.

Yes, if the team can post a top 5 defensive rating, then they can find success. But that's not ever going to happen, not with DeMar playing so many minutes, not for a longer stretch than the 15 games of elite defence (101 DRTG) they managed. Nevermind that if it did, it would be with a pile of high impact defenders (like CoJo for that short reinvigorated stretch, Ibaka and Tucker), which is exactly what I've been arguing - that DeMar can carry a huge production load if he has players around him to do the stuff that swings team offensive and defensive efficiencies (spreading the floor, defence, etc).

Yes, if the bar is LeBron, Lowry doesn't clear it. But advanced impact stats suggest he is like top 10 in the league, and has been for a couple seasons now. And if we want to be happy with 50 wins being the ceiling of the team, yeah, we can build around DeMar. But this team's ceiling is more like 60 wins right now with Lowry and if everything goes right, and the jump from good to great is the hardest jump to make. It will be very difficult to do it with Lowry. Take him out, and it becomes impossible.

On paper it should have been all goodness with Lowry returning, but I feel like there's this tug-of-war between Lowry and Casey with respect to the team's style of play. That 14-7 stretch was pretty close to Casey's vision of the Raps team being: winning with defense and sharing the ball, if you go by articles and various quotes. I feel like Lowry's vision for the team is: winning with offense (his and DeMar's hero ball, primarily) and then having low usage role players (like Biz, CoJo, etc...) carry the load on defense and hit open shots when Lowry & DD are trapped.

I'd lump all of the above into the bucket of 'chemistry', which is why I don't think this current Raps team will ever find their ceiling with or without Lowry. And I don't really care about winning 60 games. I'd rather have the team lose more regular season games while learning to play a style that will travel well into the playoffs, rather than a fool's gold style that gets exposed by simple coaching adjustments, like trapping.

[DanH]

On paper it should have been all goodness with Lowry returning, but I feel like there's this tug-of-war between Lowry and Casey with respect to the team's style of play. That 14-7 stretch was pretty close to Casey's vision of the Raps team being: winning with defense and sharing the ball, if you go by articles and various quotes. I feel like Lowry's vision for the team is: winning with offense (his and DeMar's hero ball, primarily) and then having low usage role players (like Biz, CoJo, etc...) carry the load on defense and hit open shots when Lowry & DD are trapped.

I'd lump all of the above into the bucket of 'chemistry', which is why I don't think this current Raps team will ever find their ceiling with or without Lowry. And I don't really care about winning 60 games. I'd rather have the team lose more regular season games while learning to play a style that will travel well into the playoffs, rather than a fool's gold style that gets exposed by simple coaching adjustments, like trapping.

Well, to be fair, there was a simple coaching adjustment that completely eliminated the effect of the traps, rendering the Bucks' defence basically useless. It just took our coach four games to implement it.

Again the team didn't share the ball very much at all in that 14-7 stretch (46% assist %, dead last in the league over those 21 games), they just played an unsustainable defence with the post-trade bump teams get, which disappeared entirely in the final few games before Lowry came back.

It's not a matter of Casey's style not fitting with his stars - his style is exactly what we've been playing. The biggest failure of the system in the playoffs is an inability to adjust - which is not a system failure at all but a coaching failure.

Lowry coming back should have been an instant boon - except he was coming off a month long injury, any player would take time to get into form after that. And even then - the team did look much, much better in the two games he played with them (not including the Cavs game where they rested their players) after coming back after their short swoon in those last 6 games without him. Not that that means much - we have seasons-long samples of the team being way, way better with Lowry than without, not just a two game sample.