Everything Derozan

[JimiCliff]

Ideally Jonas is that guy. I'm not saying he will be, I'm saying that's what you're betting on by keeping the core intact.

Don't think that's a viable path to a championship. He won't be that player before Lowry has declined, IMO.

And I don't think that's the bet you're making. The bet you're making assumes that you're getting another impact player in addition to Lowry DD JV TR - otherwise, it's a bad bet.

[imanshumpert]

If by "role player" you mean literally the best wing stopper in the game, then yes, he's a role player. He's the perfect 3+D, except he also brings good playmaking (last year was the first time in 8 years he's had an assist rate lower than DD's breakout assist rate this year, and he was playing in an offense dominated by a superstar PG).

He's not the best wing stopper in the game, although he is one of the best. I'd take Tony Allen and Paul George over him. Better IQ than George but George's length is enough to even bother guys like KD.

He's not the perfect 3+D because he's not a great three point shooter rofl. People overuse that term. Iguodala is an ok three-point shooter, he shoots 35.4% from the arc with 1 make per game, and last year was actually his best season from three besides his aberration in 2011-12 where he shot 39%. He's just an average three point shooter, not a 3+D guy (the D is definitely there though).

As for playmaking, yeah he is a solid playmaker, but I don't see how it's relevant that this is DeRozan's best AST% year and all/most of Iggy's other years were better. DeRozan is an improving player at age 24, whereas Iggy is only going to decline from here as he's on the wrong side of 30.

Personally, for me Iggy is a bit old for the long term growth of this club, but IF the team made a deal that was effectively DD for Iggy, they would definitely improve. Heck, just look at how much better GSW were with Iggy versus without him.

I don't see how the team would improve in the short-term, and it would get significantly worse in the long-term. We would just be better defensively but our offence would take a serious hit because as I said before we'd have no one who can command a double-team. Teams like that tend to struggle offensively (see the Bulls). This deal would handicap us for the future as we'd have 12M a year locked into a guy that's not going to improve ever.

As for the obsession of trading with GSW, I just saw someone suggest a trade with them for Ross, and mentioned that DD would be a better piece to trade. There's lots of places I'd be happy seeing DD traded to.

Don't really understand why you want DD to be traded but ok.

[Other Scott]

I was about to comment that almost everyone agrees what DeRozan is, and the argument is stemming from an incorrect perception that others value him differently.

Then I see trade proposals like DeRozan for Barnes and DeRozan and a 1st for Iguodala, and think that there are people on this board who underrate DeRozan's value, some severely so.

I understand the desire to trade DeRozan. But at least try to get back what the league perceives his value to be, even if you think his value is less.

[Other Scott]

Don't think that's a viable path to a championship. He won't be that player before Lowry has declined, IMO.

And I don't think that's the bet you're making. The bet you're making assumes that you're getting another impact player in addition to Lowry DD JV TR - otherwise, it's a bad bet.

3 players playing at an All Star level in different roles is certainly a viable path to a championship. Maybe not a sustainable path, because you have to pay them all, but you can win one if things break right.

[stooley]

3 players playing at an All Star level in different roles is certainly a viable path to a championship. Maybe not a sustainable path, because you have to pay them all, but you can win one if things break right.

I agree. That's exactly what San Antonio is right now.

Mind you, they have a HOF coach, but their all stars are also so old they only play like 25 minutes a game.

[Puffer]

I am extremely happy to see DD's progression as a scorer. Scorers will always have a home in the league. What upsets me is the ease with which almost anyone DeRozan is guarding makes buckets. And the silly reach in fouls DeRozan makes as players blow by him. Which always seem to wind up being "And Ones."

DeMar's 23 points a game work out to a net +10 or 8, max, because he gives up so much on the other end. And while I am glad to see him getting more assists, for someone who has the ball in his hands for such a large proportion of Raptors plays, it still isn't enough.

His defensive abilities have not progressed at the same rate as his offensive abilities, yet all the supposed experts constantly say that defense is easier. I am hoping that DeMar really picks it up this summer.

[JimiCliff]

3 players playing at an All Star level in different roles is certainly a viable path to a championship. Maybe not a sustainable path, because you have to pay them all, but you can win one if things break right.

"All Star level" isn't saying much of anything. The level of play of All Stars varies wildly. Even if Lowry, DD and Val were all playing at their ceiling simultaneously, that isn't enough talent to make you a championship contender IMO (and that's disregarding the fact that Lowry's decline should begin as Jonas' prime begins).

Think of it like this: every NBA championship team in recent memory* has featured at least one shoe-in hall of famer in their prime, more often than not two, and sometimes even three. I'd certainly bet that none of Lowry, DD or Val will be shoe-in hall of famers; I'd probably bet that none of them will get in at all. This is why I think that if TL and MU are serious about making a run at the title with this core, the words "Kevin" and "Love" are running through their minds on a very regular basis.

*With the exception being, of course, the most recent Pistons micro-dynasty. Decades of evidence, though, suggest that they were an outlier as successful team building models go, and one that any sound-minded person would not be trying to emulate.

[imanshumpert]

I am extremely happy to see DD's progression as a scorer. Scorers will always have a home in the league. What upsets me is the ease with which almost anyone DeRozan is guarding makes buckets. And the silly reach in fouls DeRozan makes as players blow by him. Which always seem to wind up being "And Ones."

DeMar's 23 points a game work out to a net +10 or 8, max, because he gives up so much on the other end. And while I am glad to see him getting more assists, for someone who has the ball in his hands for such a large proportion of Raptors plays, it still isn't enough.

His defensive abilities have not progressed at the same rate as his offensive abilities, yet all the supposed experts constantly say that defense is easier. I am hoping that DeMar really picks it up this summer.

I'm assuming you mean +/- of how many points his man scores against him. +8-10 is actually quite high...

http://www.82games.com/1314/13TOR7.HTM

DeRozan produces +8.7 points per 48 minutes at shooting guard (according to 82games he plays most of his minutes at 2, so I guess they consider Ross to be the 3). He's also +5.8 in PER.

Comparatively, Andre Iguodala is -2.3 in points per 48 against SFs (the position where he plays the bulk of his minutes) and +3.5 in PER.

Obviously, Iguodala is usually guarding better players but still those are the stats.

I'm actually not sure what the relevance of this stat even is lol, just interesting to look at. Some guys like Durant and LeBron have insane numbers.

[OldSkoolCool]

Then I see trade proposals like DeRozan for Barnes and DeRozan and a 1st for Iguodala, and think that there are people on this board who underrate DeRozan's value, some severely so.

K those are opposite ends of the spectrum. DD for Barnes is massively underrating DD. However Igoudala is a much better player than DD is at this point, and it was just tossed out as a 'is it possible?' trade.

DD non-haters should be ecstatic that the DD haters suggested DD and Igoudala in the same trade. Iggy is an amazing player.

DeMar's 23 points a game work out to a net +10 or 8, max, because he gives up so much on the other end. And while I am glad to see him getting more assists, for someone who has the ball in his hands for such a large proportion of Raptors plays, it still isn't enough.

x10000

He really is still a black hole at times in the offense.

I would be happy if he only took like 12-13 shots a game and focused on passing the ball, regardless of getting the assist.

[Other Scott]

K those are opposite ends of the spectrum. DD for Barnes is massively underrating DD. However Igoudala is a much better player than DD is at this point, and it was just tossed out as a 'is it possible?' trade.

DD non-haters should be ecstatic that the DD haters suggested DD and Igoudala in the same trade. Iggy is an amazing player.

You're right, the Barnes trade is worse. But your comments make me think that it isn't necessarily that you underrate DD, but more you think higher of Iguodala than I do. He's older, more expensive, and only a role player offensively. If the trade was straight up I probably wouldn't have included it in my list, but throwing in the Raptors first round pick made my eyes bug out a little.

[Other Scott]

"All Star level" isn't saying much of anything. The level of play of All Stars varies wildly. Even if Lowry, DD and Val were all playing at their ceiling simultaneously, that isn't enough talent to make you a championship contender IMO (and that's disregarding the fact that Lowry's decline should begin as Jonas' prime begins).

Think of it like this: every NBA championship team in recent memory* has featured at least one shoe-in hall of famer in their prime, more often than not two, and sometimes even three. I'd certainly bet that none of Lowry, DD or Val will be shoe-in hall of famers; I'd probably bet that none of them will get in at all. This is why I think that if TL and MU are serious about making a run at the title with this core, the words "Kevin" and "Love" are running through their minds on a very regular basis.

*With the exception being, of course, the most recent Pistons micro-dynasty. Decades of evidence, though, suggest that they were an outlier as successful team building models go, and one that any sound-minded person would not be trying to emulate.

The Spurs last year came as close to a championship as possible without any of that. The 2003 Kings as well. I'd argue Wade wasn't in his prime yet when the 2006 Heat won. You can't only look at the teams that did win, you should also look at the teams that could have won if a few breaks went their way.

I simply disagree with your first paragraph. I just don't see where else this discussion can go.

[JimiCliff]

The Spurs last year came as close to a championship as possible without any of that. The 2003 Kings as well. I'd argue Wade wasn't in his prime yet when the 2006 Heat won. You can't only look at the teams that did win, you should also look at the teams that could have won if a few breaks went their way.

Parker had maybe his best year ever last year, and he's absolutely a hall of fame player. The Kings had Webber in his prime, another HOFer. I don't see how you could argue that Wade wasn't in his prime in 2006 based on his numbers, plus they had Shaq at the tail end of his prime.

Other legit contenders, all featuring HOFers in their primes, that came close but didn't win: Suns (Nash), Suns (Barkley), Jazz (John & Karl), Portland (Drexler), Seattle (Payton, & featuring a very dominant Kemp). If you want, add the Knicks (Ewing) and the Pacers (Miller) to that list. To my mind, that covers every team in recent memory that you could seriously argue had a chance to win everything.

[imanshumpert]

K those are opposite ends of the spectrum. DD for Barnes is massively underrating DD. However Igoudala is a much better player than DD is at this point, and it was just tossed out as a 'is it possible?' trade.

DD non-haters should be ecstatic that the DD haters suggested DD and Igoudala in the same trade. Iggy is an amazing player.



x10000

He really is still a black hole at times in the offense.

I would be happy if he only took like 12-13 shots a game and focused on passing the ball, regardless of getting the assist.

Yeah you're living in a dream world. Find me another good team where the primary scorer shoots that few times per game (the only one is the Nets and that's only because Lopez got injured, he was taking 16 shots per 36 prior to injury). Duncan and Parker do but that's only because they only play 29 minutes per game. Per 36 they take 15 and 16.5 shots per game respectively which is in the same region as DeMar (16.8).

Somebody needs to take that many shots, because somebody on the team needs to force the defense to double and get guys moving. That's how basketball works in the NBA. You act like DeRozan just goes out there and chucks up a bunch of ridiculous shots every game. Let's look at every playoff team's top shot-takers and their efficiencies.

EAST
Indiana: Paul George - 16.9 FGA/36 - 55.5% TS
Miami: LeBron James - 16.8 FGA/36 - 64.9% TS
Toronto: DeMar DeRozan - 16.8 FGA/36 - 53.2% TS
Chicago: Carlos Boozer - 16.5 FGA/36 - 48.9% TS
Washington: John Wall - 16.2 FGA/36 - 52.4% TS
Brooklyn: Joe Johnson - 14.2 FGA/36 - 56.4% TS
Charlotte: Al Jefferson - 19.4 FGA/36 - 53.2% TS
Atlanta: Paul Millsap - 15.2 FGA/36 - 54.5% TS

WEST:
San Antonio: Tony Parker - 16.5 FGA/36 - 55.5% TS
Oklahoma City: Russell Westbrook - 20.2 FGA/36 (19 for KD) - 54.5% TS
Los Angeles: Blake Griffin - 17.0 FGA/36 - 58.3% TS
Portland: LaMarcus Aldridge - 20.5 FGA/36 - 50.7% TS
Houston: James Harden - 15.6 FGA/36 - 61.8% TS
Golden State: Steph Curry - 17.5 FGA/36 (15 apiece for Klay/Lee) - 61.0% TS
Memphis: Zach Randolph - 15.9 FGA/36 - 51.0% TS
Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki - 17.4 FGA/36 - 60.3% TS

So the average top shooter on a playoff team takes 17.0 FGA/36. This means DeRozan is right around the range (slightly below average attempts) for a top scoring option. He's not just throwing up shots, this is actually NORMAL for an NBA team. Now obviously ideally you want to have your top scoring option in that 55-60% TS range (DeRozan ranks 11th out of 16 on this list), but unfortunately we have no player who has proven they can score with that efficiency at such volume, and such players are rare. There are 10 of them listed above (George, James, Parker, Griffin, Durant, Harden, Curry, Dirk) and all of them except Parker (took a pay cut) and Curry (ankle injury screwed him out of money) are on max contracts.

[CalgaryRapsFan]

Yeah you're living in a dream world. Find me another good team where the primary scorer shoots that few times per game (the only one is the Nets and that's only because Lopez got injured, he was taking 16 shots per 36 prior to injury). Duncan and Parker do but that's only because they only play 29 minutes per game. Per 36 they take 15 and 16.5 shots per game respectively which is in the same region as DeMar (16.8).

Somebody needs to take that many shots, because somebody on the team needs to force the defense to double and get guys moving. That's how basketball works in the NBA. You act like DeRozan just goes out there and chucks up a bunch of ridiculous shots every game. Let's look at every playoff team's top shot-takers and their efficiencies.

EAST
Indiana: Paul George - 16.9 FGA/36 - 55.5% TS
Miami: LeBron James - 16.8 FGA/36 - 64.9% TS
Toronto: DeMar DeRozan - 16.8 FGA/36 - 53.2% TS
Chicago: Carlos Boozer - 16.5 FGA/36 - 48.9% TS
Washington: John Wall - 16.2 FGA/36 - 52.4% TS
Brooklyn: Joe Johnson - 14.2 FGA/36 - 56.4% TS
Charlotte: Al Jefferson - 19.4 FGA/36 - 53.2% TS
Atlanta: Paul Millsap - 15.2 FGA/36 - 54.5% TS

WEST:
San Antonio: Tony Parker - 16.5 FGA/36 - 55.5% TS
Oklahoma City: Russell Westbrook - 20.2 FGA/36 (19 for KD) - 54.5% TS
Los Angeles: Blake Griffin - 17.0 FGA/36 - 58.3% TS
Portland: LaMarcus Aldridge - 20.5 FGA/36 - 50.7% TS
Houston: James Harden - 15.6 FGA/36 - 61.8% TS
Golden State: Steph Curry - 17.5 FGA/36 (15 apiece for Klay/Lee) - 61.0% TS
Memphis: Zach Randolph - 15.9 FGA/36 - 51.0% TS
Dallas: Dirk Nowitzki - 17.4 FGA/36 - 60.3% TS

So the average top shooter on a playoff team takes 17.0 FGA/36. This means DeRozan is right around the range (slightly below average attempts) for a top scoring option. He's not just throwing up shots, this is actually NORMAL for an NBA team. Now obviously ideally you want to have your top scoring option in that 55-60% TS range (DeRozan ranks 11th out of 16 on this list), but unfortunately we have no player who has proven they can score with that efficiency at such volume, and such players are rare. There are 10 of them listed above (George, James, Parker, Griffin, Durant, Harden, Curry, Dirk) and all of them except Parker (took a pay cut) and Curry (ankle injury screwed him out of money) are on max contracts.

Here's the rub; you're trying to have your cake and eat it to (DeRozan apologists, not just you specifically).

On one hand, you acknowledge that DeRozan isn't a superstar player and that ideally he should be a #1b/#2 scorer on a truly good team. Either that, or Toronto is compared to the NBA champion Pistons of the early 2000's, as a team that relies on a balanced lineup instead of 1 superstar carrying the load.

On the other hand, you argue that it's acceptable for DeRozan to try and play like a superstar, effectively forcing his game and taking too many poor/contested shots (which is the exact point so many 'haters' have been making all season).


The bottom line is that DeRozan doesn't have to do anything. If he were to play within himself, he should be taking a few less shots a game, effectively spreading out the team's offense. Doing so would force the defense to stay honest and defend multiple players more closely, rather than keying on DeRozan, which is what they're doing because he's forcing himself into the superstar role. Spreading the offense around would generate more open looks overall, get more players involved and into the flow of the offensive game, and would even actually benefit DeRozan by alleviating some of the double-teams and pressure being put on him.

I will fully admit that a good chunk of the blame falls on DC, for playing DeRozan in that role (or for not holding him accountable for going against more balanced, team-oriented play calling). DeRozan isn't a superstar and shouldn't be playing a superstar style game, yet he is, inefficiently.

As many of the most vocal 'haters' themselves have admitted, both DeRozan and the team were playing their best when he wasn't forcing the superstar style of play. When his shot totals were down (especially long 2's), his peripheral numbers were up (assists and rebounds) and the ball was moving more, his harshest critics gave him credit. Unfortunately, in the playoffs, he reverted to his old-self and played a Rudy Gay-lite style game.

[OldSkoolCool]

You're right, the Barnes trade is worse. But your comments make me think that it isn't necessarily that you underrate DD, but more you think higher of Iguodala than I do. He's older, more expensive, and only a role player offensively. If the trade was straight up I probably wouldn't have included it in my list, but throwing in the Raptors first round pick made my eyes bug out a little.

Ya I think Igoudala is one of those underrated superstars. He is one of the few players that can do everything well with some things amazingly well. The fact that he has little to no holes in his game is probably why I value him so highly. I would trade a lot to get him.

Somebody needs to take that many shots, because somebody on the team needs to force the defense to double and get guys moving. That's how basketball works in the NBA. You act like DeRozan just goes out there and chucks up a bunch of ridiculous shots every game.

Now obviously ideally you want to have your top scoring option in that 55-60% TS range (DeRozan ranks 11th out of 16 on this list), but unfortunately we have no player who has proven they can score with that efficiency at such volume

I want the Raptors to follow the Spurs methodology of less shots more spread out. You can't just conveniently ignore stuff to suit your needs (like you did when saying DD was great if you don't include game 1 in the playoffs, yet grill me on a 30 game sample size). Just because everyone else in the league is chucking it up...why do we? Why can't we be a team full of 12 shot guys? I bet that team would be extremely hard to stop, even harder than having just 1 guy who has to "take a lot of shots"

How many games this past season would someone like Amir or Val be 5/5 and DD be shooting 20% and he still wouldn't pass it to them?? How do you think this team ever is going to improve unless he starts sharing the rock more for the amount he has possession?

DD is below that ideal range you described, so he needs to cut his attempts and become more efficient or this team will not improve. Also he is the second worse in terms of guards, but the other guard at least brings defense and 9 assists and more rebounds a game. Basically he was the second worst scorer on that list of guards while bringing virtually nothing else to the table like the rest of the listed guys. DD is not good enough to be listed with those guards yet.