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chico wrote: View PostNo. Time to start dumping on Masai for Lowry's player option, I guess.
DD's contract was inherently a gamble that he would outperform his contract. Including a player option nullifies a lot of the benefit of getting that gamble right. If he was being paid an amount that made sense considering his performance at that point, it would make sense to have a player option. No other comparable player both got overpaid based on potential and got a player option. Either or - not both. They are mutually exclusive ideas - the player option is to allow the player out of an underpaying contract in the event of unexpected development, the overpay is locking a player in on a gamble he will have expected development.
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TSF wrote: View PostBTW, hearing DD is working with Gary Payton? Absolutely great news. Get that D up Demar!
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DanH wrote: View PostNot all player options are created equal. The gamble is that Lowry will maintain his current production. He may opt out that year, but in all likelihood to get a longer deal at roughly the same pay or a little less. Or he may be hurt and opt in and cost us that 4th year. But the choice was probably between that and 5 full years, in which case the latter scenario is best case anyway, and the former is low risk - if he still wants to play here we will still be able to afford him, as he'll be onto what will probably be his final contract.
DD's contract was inherently a gamble that he would outperform his contract. Including a player option nullifies a lot of the benefit of getting that gamble right. If he was being paid an amount that made sense considering his performance at that point, it would make sense to have a player option. No other comparable player both got overpaid based on potential and got a player option. Either or - not both. They are mutually exclusive ideas - the player option is to allow the player out of an underpaying contract in the event of unexpected development, the overpay is locking a player in on a gamble he will have expected development.
EDIT: Lowry will definitely opt out of that deal to benefit from a larger contract with the new cap (you know... exactly what DD is going to do). Even if his relative value remains the same he'll expect to be paid a larger percentage of the cap on a new deal.
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What's being ignored here is that even if Colangelo had been able to plan in advance for the new TV Contract and CBA in 2016, and secure DD for 4yrs/40M or whatever with no player option. He STILL would get a similarly large contract in 2017 free agency...
I think some people are just annoyed that DD is taking away cap space from a potential KD signing. I really don't think we should be planning around signing KD, especially considering that virtually every single team in the league will have max space that year (including almost all the major market teams).
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Scraptor wrote: View PostThis seems to benefit from a lot of hindsight is 20/20 thinking.
"You do not let him opt out"? If the goal is to lock him up without him hitting RFA then you may not have a choice. For all we know the $9.5mm was more than what BC wanted to pay as it is; you yourself said that his contract value seemed nowhere near market value. They could have been so far apart on the terms (remember that the deal was signed at the eleventh hour in the tunnel at the ACC) that this was the only solution.
If 9.5M was more than BC wanted to pay, he should have let him go to RFA. Other GM's let similar players go to RFA, posters here and elsewhere were saying at the time it would have been the right choice, the media panned the deal. Hindsight allows us to see that all those people were right - DD's worst case would have been about 11M based on the market as it showed itself. He ended up with 10M AND a player option. Only solution. Right. Because you HAVE to sign an extension.
I wanted BC to wait for RFA on Demar but the fact of the matter is, we ended up with Demar on an advantageous contract, and complaining that Demar has a player option in year four is ridiculous. We can play armchair GM and that's all well and good but there's a limit to how much information we have.
Now, we sit on the verge of the biggest cap boom in the recent history of the NBA, with DD having an opt out in that season (and a fairly large cap hold because of his overpayment on his rookie extension). That 5M in extra cap room can make a big difference. As can potentially the extra 14M in room under the tax if he angles for a max deal (and who expects him not to?). The best part is that ALL of this was foreseeable. And according to you we cannot criticize this situation.
Further, Lowry's contract provides a perfect example of the double standard we set for BC vs Masai. Lowry has a year-four option but we all laud Masai for getting him back on a reasonable deal.
BC messed up a lot of things but it's the height of absurdity to shit on him for this.
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imanshumpert wrote: View PostWhat's being ignored here is that even if Colangelo had been able to plan in advance for the new TV Contract and CBA in 2016, and secure DD for 4yrs/40M or whatever with no player option. He STILL would get a similarly large contract in 2017 free agency...
I think some people are just annoyed that DD is taking away cap space from a potential KD signing. I really don't think we should be planning around signing KD, especially considering that virtually every single team in the league will have max space that year (including almost all the major market teams).
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imanshumpert wrote: View PostWho gives a shit man can we move on? His contract was signed 2 years ago.
EDIT: Lowry will definitely opt out of that deal to benefit from a larger contract with the new cap (you know... exactly what DD is going to do). Even if his relative value remains the same he'll expect to be paid a larger percentage of the cap on a new deal.
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DanH wrote: View PostYes. In 2017 free agency. When the 2016 cap boom had passed, teams had used a bunch of their cap room that year and eaten up the excess cap space, and any big moves made in the one-year cap boom situation would be in place, allowing the team to re-sign DD to whatever they needed to with no impact on ability to build the roster. Having to deal with his big cap hit (or bigger deal) in 2016 means being limited in what they can do in that once-in-a-TV-deal opportunity.
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And I hope you guys realize, if we had signed DD for a little more money to get rid of the player option (say 11M per year?).
DD's 2016 cap hit would decrease by a whopping 3M (like < 4% of the projected cap). So it's not like he's the one holding up the fairy-tale Durant signing that isn't going to happen.
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imanshumpert wrote: View PostAnd I hope you guys realize, if we had signed DD for a little more money to get rid of the player option (say 11M per year?).
DD's 2016 cap hit would decrease by a whopping 3M (like < 4% of the projected cap). So it's not like he's the one holding up the fairy-tale Durant signing that isn't going to happen.
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imanshumpert wrote: View PostAh ok, so every team would've used up all their space in 2016, and we'd be able to sign DD for low-mid teens in 2017. Makes a ton of sense man.
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DanH wrote: View PostYeah, except in most Durant (or any other star) scenarios, considering the roster situation, we are looking at a sign and trade. Meaning we are hard capped at the apron. And DeMar potentially making his max of 23M is very different from him making 11M. And the following year we would not be hardcapped and would be free to sign him to his max and simply pay the tax (which ownership would be willing to do with the potential powerhouse we could have). That's the point.
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imanshumpert wrote: View PostI don't see why we would sign DeRozan to his max deal before signing Durant if we had any chance in hell of getting KD? So the cap hit would be 14M.
And b) if a) is correct, any Durant move will be via sign and trade, which means our limit is the tax apron, and if we keep our team together and add a borderline all-star talent next summer to help attract KD, then we will be right up against the apron if DD makes his projected 11M - and we won't be able to go over the apron to give him his 23M, so we lose him for nothing in that scenario (or lose basically all of our depth to make room for him).
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DanH wrote: View PostYeah, except a) there is very little chance we have cap room for Durant unless we let DeMar walk.
And b) if a) is correct, any Durant move will be via sign and trade, which means our limit is the tax apron, and if we keep our team together and add a borderline all-star talent next summer to help attract KD, then we will be right up against the apron if DD makes his projected 11M - and we won't be able to go over the apron to give him his 23M, so we lose him for nothing in that scenario (or lose basically all of our depth to make room for him).
Kyle Lowry $12,000,000
Paul Millsap (eg) $10,450,000 (second year of a 10M contract)
Role player from 2015: $6,871,849 (expiring)
Patrick Patterson $6,418,605 (expiring)
Room MLE from 2015: $2,940,630 (unguaranteed)
Lucas (BeBe) Nogueira $1,921,320
Bruno Caboclo $1,589,640
2015 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,577,280
2016 1st rounder (assumed 20th): $1,562,280 (cap hold is lower)
2016 1st rounder (NYK/DEN assumed 10th): $2,568,600 (cap hold is lower)
Vet min from 2015 $980,431 (unguaranteed)
Cap holds:
DeMar DeRozan $14,250,000
Jonas Valanciunas $11,651,205
Greivis Vasquez $10,102,410
Terrence Ross $8,884,793
James Johnson $4,854,524
Total committed salary including cap holds: 97.0M
EDIT: If ~80M is the cap (44.74% of BRI - projected benefits/# of teams), the tax level is set by 53.51% of BRI - projected benefits/# of teams.
So the tax threshold should be somewhere around (80M * 53.51/44.74) so 96M ish. Putting the apron at 100M or so. So if we somehow WERE able to S&T for KD by sending out the same $$$ contracts, we'd still be at a cap hit of 82M. Bump DD's hit from 14 to 24M on a new deal, and that's 92M. So below the tax level and below the apron so no problem.Last edited by imanshumpert; Fri Jul 18, 2014, 11:50 AM.
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