@ tbihis: Statistically, let's compare an average defender who doesn't gamble with an average defender who gets two blocks a game, over twenty shots against. I believe the average PPP in the NBA is 1.1? If it isn't, this could be wrong. Anyway...
Assumptions:
Average league PPP = 1.1
Average defender goes for a block 25% of the time (and gets it 40% of the time).
Average defender either gets the block or gives up the layup when he gambles.
Average defender, who gambles occasionally: 15 times (75%), he gives up league average. 2 times (10%), he gets the block. Three times (15%), he gives up a layup. 15*1.1 + 2*0 + 3*2 = 16.5 + 6 = 22.5
Average defender, who never gambles: 20 times (100%), he gives up league average. 1.1*20 = 22.
Therefore, gambling and getting the two blocks isn't optimal. Obviously a simplistic example, but more concrete.
Assumptions:
Average league PPP = 1.1
Average defender goes for a block 25% of the time (and gets it 40% of the time).
Average defender either gets the block or gives up the layup when he gambles.
Average defender, who gambles occasionally: 15 times (75%), he gives up league average. 2 times (10%), he gets the block. Three times (15%), he gives up a layup. 15*1.1 + 2*0 + 3*2 = 16.5 + 6 = 22.5
Average defender, who never gambles: 20 times (100%), he gives up league average. 1.1*20 = 22.
Therefore, gambling and getting the two blocks isn't optimal. Obviously a simplistic example, but more concrete.
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