Everything Derozan

[iblastoff]

I don't think there is any evidence to support that DD would be able to hold his own vs #1s.

Forgot all the lock down nonsense, DD isn't a lockdown defender and shouldn't be expected to be.

Can DD prevent dribble drives and not get lit up? That is what an average defender should bring, not a liability or an asset on defence.

DD's defensive "strengths" are largely based on knowing the rotations of Casey's system. He doesn't stop dribble drives or pressure passing lanes or contest shots in a positive manner.

Right now, DD isn't a liability or an asset on defence. This is adequate for a guy who is primarily a scorer. But if we add a true #1 scorer, DD isn't a valuable on offence (less relied upon and doesn't have good complimentary skills on offence) and should therefore be taking on a larger defensive responsibility to be worth a large contract.

pretty much. that probably just stems from the fact that hes worked with casey the longest out of any other current team member.

[mcHAPPY]

This is fucking painful.

[Snooch]

Yes he can. And DeRozan's value on offense would increase with a true #1 scorer as the opportunities he would get would be against less defensive attention, while also allowing him to play off-ball a little bit more and get more looks from the corners.

And you support this how?

All evidence available points to both of your statements being 100% wrong.

And no, team usa is not a viable arguement.

[Snooch]

Oh right I actually forgot that LBJ was a free agent cause I considered him a certainty to return, my bad on that. Take a like. Hadn't seen the NBA's projections for those last two years you listed there, thanks for the information, I just assuming about 5-7M jumps like we've seen the last couple of years (I think from 58 to 63 and then to 70 now).

So worst case scenario DeRozan is getting a deal that looks like 19M, 18M, 20M, 21M, 21M under the current cap? While that's definitely not ideal, it's manageable and not something that screams that we need to trade him for a mid-late 1st imo. And this is assuming that DD gets the full max, which I don't think will happen anyway.

People are making this out to be doomsday when it really isn't imo.

thats an awful lot of "I thinks" in there, when there is only evidence available to counter your thoughts to opposite.

[JWash]

And you support this how?

All evidence available points to both of your statements being 100% wrong.

And no, team usa is not a viable arguement.

Because DeRozan is an elite finisher at the rim, and the one area of the floor he can actually make 3s from at a solid rate is the corner.

It's very difficult for a #1 option to get off a lot of corner 3s.... however as a #2 he'd have more opportunity to play off-ball in that area and get looks from there off drive and kicks from the legit #1 guy.

Additionally, part of DD's problem is that while he is elite as a finisher, he is not good enough to consistently break down defenses when their primary focus is stopping him (which is why he is not a suitable #1 option). However as a #2, more opportunity would be afforded to him to attack defenses that are more focused on stopping the primary option than him, which would make it easier for him to get to the basket.

Increased shots at the rim vs. mid-range jump shots, and more corner 3s vs. above the break ---> increased efficiency and a very effective #2 scoring option.

The caveat here though is that the #1 option would actually have to be just that... a legit #1 option and not someone like Rudy Gay who is no better than DD and also best served as a #2 (as we have seen by his increased efficiency in Sacramento next to a legit #1 guy in Cousins).

[Axel]

Yes he can. And DeRozan's value on offense would increase with a true #1 scorer as the opportunities he would get would be against less defensive attention, while also allowing him to play off-ball a little bit more and get more looks from the corners.

Do you believe that DD's strengths/skill set work well without the ball in his hands?

Typical off-ball skills that thrive in a secondary scorer role:
- lots of cuts, movement (awareness being the skill)
- perimeter shooting
- good screener
- offensive rebounding
- creative passer
- strong post play

Of these skills, DD may have strong post play (it's used so infrequently that it's hard to really say it's much of a strength).

DD's skill set and value on offence has been largely due to getting to the free throw line (ball in hand), dribble drive pull ups. With a legit #1 scorer, DD will be tasked with playing off ball more and he hasn't proven to be much of a threat in this instance. When he does have the ball in his hands, his passing hasn't been good enough to really worry that he will be able to create open looks for that primary guy.

But let's say for arguments sake that DD is able to still score well in a secondary role without such his usage (aka increase his efficiency), are you going to tax that #1 guy on defence by having them guard the opposing #1 or are you going to want to have your #2 guy take on a bigger defensive responsibility? Most teams have historically played it the latter.

But DD isn't a good enough defender to play against top guys night in night out, so defensively, he will likely go from a net neutral to a net negative (which was Dan's point as far as I can tell).

How much money do you want to invest into a secondary scorer on offence who is a net negative on defence?

[Puffer]

Without getting into the "He deserves it" or "He doesn't deserve it" argument, there are arguments for keeping a players salary as low as possible.

The current owners of the Raps haven't been overly anxious to go into luxury tax territory.

Having the ability to spend an extra 6 million in two or three years can have a significant impact when you have an opportunity at a true max guy, or when a desired role player comes along that fills a position of need. It's pretty easy to sit in the bleachers and say "$20 million a year, $25 million a year...what's the diff?"

[JWash]

Do you believe that DD's strengths/skill set work well without the ball in his hands?

Typical off-ball skills that thrive in a secondary scorer role:
- lots of cuts, movement (awareness being the skill)
- perimeter shooting
- good screener
- offensive rebounding
- creative passer
- strong post play

Of these skills, DD may have strong post play (it's used so infrequently that it's hard to really say it's much of a strength).

DD's skill set and value on offence has been largely due to getting to the free throw line (ball in hand), dribble drive pull ups. With a legit #1 scorer, DD will be tasked with playing off ball more and he hasn't proven to be much of a threat in this instance. When he does have the ball in his hands, his passing hasn't been good enough to really worry that he will be able to create open looks for that primary guy.

But let's say for arguments sake that DD is able to still score well in a secondary role without such his usage (aka increase his efficiency), are you going to tax that #1 guy on defence by having them guard the opposing #1 or are you going to want to have your #2 guy take on a bigger defensive responsibility? Most teams have historically played it the latter.

But DD isn't a good enough defender to play against top guys night in night out, so defensively, he will likely go from a net neutral to a net negative (which was Dan's point as far as I can tell).

How much money do you want to invest into a secondary scorer on offence who is a net negative on defence?

DeRozan isn't a net negative on defense, and 2nd option doesn't mean entirely off-ball it means more off-ball, which in DeRozan's case is a good thing because he's on the ball too much. Would mean less of those times where he can't get anywhere on a possession, and decides to take a fadeaway 20 footer, and more corner 3s and open driving lanes. And something like his post-play, would be utilized more under a good coach (which hopefully we would go out and get if we got a legit #1 guy right?).

Also we've discussed this already but DeRozan isn't a net negative on defense. Oh and also, it's possible that the #1 guy could be at the 4 position... even if we got Durant.

[Axel]

DeRozan isn't a net negative on defense, and 2nd option doesn't mean entirely off-ball it means more off-ball, which in DeRozan's case is a good thing because he's on the ball too much. Would mean less of those times where he can't get anywhere on a possession, and decides to take a fadeaway 20 footer, and more corner 3s and open driving lanes. And something like his post-play, would be utilized more under a good coach (which hopefully we would go out and get if we got a legit #1 guy right?).

Also we've discussed this already but DeRozan isn't a net negative on defense. Oh and also, it's possible that the #1 guy could be at the 4 position... even if we got Durant.

Read carefully. I never said DD is a net negative on defence, I said he would be IF he was tasked with guarding opposing #1s on a nightly basis.

[JWash]

Read carefully. I never said DD is a net negative on defence, I said he would be IF he was tasked with guarding opposing #1s on a nightly basis.

Nah he wouldn't, he just wouldn't be stopping the guy from putting out his usual production

Also even if we got KD for instance, wouldn't DD still be guarding the opposing SG? I mean the fact that he's not really big enough to guard the top 3s like LBJ, Melo, etc wouldn't really change right?

How many teams have a SG as their #1 option besides us right now? Houston and maybe Chicago?

[Snooch]

Because DeRozan is an elite finisher at the rim, and the one area of the floor he can actually make 3s from at a solid rate is the corner.

It's very difficult for a #1 option to get off a lot of corner 3s.... however as a #2 he'd have more opportunity to play off-ball in that area and get looks from there off drive and kicks from the legit #1 guy.

Additionally, part of DD's problem is that while he is elite as a finisher, he is not good enough to consistently break down defenses when their primary focus is stopping him (which is why he is not a suitable #1 option). However as a #2, more opportunity would be afforded to him to attack defenses that are more focused on stopping the primary option than him, which would make it easier for him to get to the basket.

Increased shots at the rim vs. mid-range jump shots, and more corner 3s vs. above the break ---> increased efficiency and a very effective #2 scoring option.

The caveat here though is that the #1 option would actually have to be just that... a legit #1 option and not someone like Rudy Gay who is no better than DD and also best served as a #2 (as we have seen by his increased efficiency in Sacramento next to a legit #1 guy in Cousins).

Elite at finishing at the rim?

Lets just look at that claim…

Lets just look at a few guys who also play a secondary or lower role who are of similar value.
Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, Victor Oladipo, Tyreke Evans, Demar Derozan
LAST YEARS NUMBERS

% of shots from 0-3 feet
1 - Evans - 53%
2 - Victor - 42%
3 - Barnes - 31%
4 - Beal - 20
5 -Demar - 19% (and those had to be assists 60% of the time)
6 - Klay - 17% (no shit, he is by far the best three point shooter)

fg% in that 0-3 foot range
1- Barnes - 68%
2 - Klay - 68%
3 - Beal - 67%
4 - Demar - 64%
5 - Victor - 57%
6 - Evans - 56%

He isn't even the best at finishing at the rim in comparison to his counterparts, and he is the worst at getting to it.
So if I were to expand that to take into account all positions, demar wouldn’t even be top 10-15 in finishing at the rim, and you want to call that ELITE?


And in regards to your counterpoint of secondary options being able to get to rim easier, as a team, we would still have to do that same thing we do now to try and let that happen, which is basically clear out an entire side of the floor and let him go ISO for 10-12 seconds trying to make it happen.

And you are implying that an increase in three pointers from the corner will result in a stability of shooting percentage from there, that is a possiblility but far from a certainty. Demar is a poor catch and shoot player as evidenced by his numbers

Play Type | Percentage of plays | Offensive Rating (ORTG)
Transition | 10% | 128
Spot Up | 14% | 76 (there would be your corner threes)
Cuts | 3% | 153
Put Backs | 2% | 127

Play Type | Percentage of plays | ORTG
Isolation | 14% | 78
PnR Ball Handler | 21% | 72
Post up | 11% | 90
Hand off | 6% | 78
Off screen | 15% | 76
(from an article in February)
Source

[Snooch]

Nah he wouldn't, he just wouldn't be stopping the guy from putting out his usual production

Also even if we got KD for instance, wouldn't DD still be guarding the opposing SG? I mean the fact that he's not really big enough to guard the top 3s like LBJ, Melo, etc wouldn't really change right?

How many teams have a SG as their #1 option besides us right now? Houston and maybe Chicago?

And coming back around full circle, this all started with saying that Carrol would be FAR better to keep than Demar if KD were to come here.

Carrol can Defend and Shoot better than Demar.....

WHICH ARE SKILL SETS FAR BETTER SUITED TO A SECONDARY PLAYER!!!!!

[JWash]

Elite at finishing at the rim?

Lets just look at that claim…

Lets just look at a few guys who also play a secondary or lower role who are of similar value.
Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, Klay Thompson, Victor Oladipo, Tyreke Evans, Demar Derozan
LAST YEARS NUMBERS

% of shots from 0-3 feet
1 - Evans - 53%
2 - Victor - 42%
3 - Barnes - 31%
4 - Beal - 20
5 -Demar - 19% (and those had to be assists 60% of the time)
6 - Klay - 17% (no shit, he is by far the best three point shooter)

fg% in that 0-3 foot range
1- Barnes - 68%
2 - Klay - 68%
3 - Beal - 67%
4 - Demar - 64%
5 - Victor - 57%
6 - Evans - 56%

He isn't even the best at finishing at the rim in comparison to his counterparts, and he is the worst at getting to it.
So if I were to expand that to take into account all positions, demar wouldn’t even be top 10-15 in finishing at the rim, and you want to call that ELITE?


And in regards to your counterpoint of secondary options being able to get to rim easier, as a team, we would still have to do that same thing we do now to try and let that happen, which is basically clear out an entire side of the floor and let him go ISO for 10-12 seconds trying to make it happen.

And you are implying that an increase in three pointers from the corner will result in a stability of shooting percentage from there, that is a possiblility but far from a certainty. Demar is a poor catch and shoot player as evidenced by his numbers

Play Type | Percentage of plays | Offensive Rating (ORTG)
Transition | 10% | 128
Spot Up | 14% | 76 (there would be your corner threes)
Cuts | 3% | 153
Put Backs | 2% | 127

Play Type | Percentage of plays | ORTG
Isolation | 14% | 78
PnR Ball Handler | 21% | 72
Post up | 11% | 90
Hand off | 6% | 78
Off screen | 15% | 76
(from an article in February)
Source

Based on those numbers he is elite at finishing at the rim, especially considering a lot of those are likely off Isos compared to guys like Barnes and Klay who play in one of the best movement offences in the league. Also it's not really a big deal but you adjusted some of those percentages (by a point) to make the gap bigger than it is.

As for the spot up numbers yes they include his corner 3s. They also include every other type of spot up shot he takes including above the break threes, which he is horrible at. Doesn't change the fact that he shot 39 percent from the corners

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[JWash]

And coming back around full circle, this all started with saying that Carrol would be FAR better to keep than Demar if KD were to come here.

Carrol can Defend and Shoot better than Demar.....

WHICH ARE SKILL SETS FAR BETTER SUITED TO A SECONDARY PLAYER!!!!!

Again it really depends on the makeup of the rest of the team. For example on our current team, if Jonas can develop and be deployed as a reliable go to post scorer then kd and DC is probably a better fit. However on a team with more defensive oriented bigs like maybe Utah for example, I think dd and kd would be better.

Also my main problem was people saying dd can't play with kd which just doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

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[Primer]

Hey guys, the important thing is all this will be settled soon when the season starts (relatively soon). Casey and Demar are both coaching/playing for their Raptor lives. They have no more excuses. We gave DC all the defensive players he can handle, and we finally paired DD up with a complementary wing who is great at the things he isn't, and is fine with playing the 2nd/3rd/4th fiddle offensively. We also have defensive backup PG/SGs to further take the defensive load off DD, the perimeter defense has to be better this year, it just has to. I know it's fun to argue in circles, but maybe everyone should just lay out their predictions for DD's defense and offense this year and leave it at that until the games start. If some new info or a new article rolls in, by all means lets talk about it, but I think we've beaten the "DD's defense horse" to death, and then continued to bludgeon it until we couldn't distinguish it from the ground underneath.

To get things going, here's my prediction for DD this year:

A career best 105 DRtg
A career best 112 ORtg
A career best 35% from 3pt land, with the vast majority of 3's being shot from the corner where he's actually good.
A career high 3.5 3pt attempts per game
A career high .540 TS%
A career high .450 FG%
4.5 rebounds and 4 assists per game

It's a contract year with the best Raps squad DD has ever played with, so I'm expecting a career year. No reason to be anything but optimistic at this point. We'll have plenty of time to crucify DD during the season if he doesn't hit my lofty goals outlined here.

What's everyone else's prediction for DD using the stats I used?