Everything Derozan

[MACK11]

Sure, but eye tests by there nature are subjective and depend a lot on who is watching, their knowledge level, and their biases. In a discussion on a forum, stats are always preferred (IMO) out because of there relative objectivity (gotta watch for cherry picking though).



I fail to see how a stat that accounts for how often the other team scores when a player is on the floor per 100 possessions is useless as a defensive performance indicator. Also, using the eye test like Axel recommends to assess the top 20 list, you will find that almost every player on it is an elite defender. There is certainly a bias built into the stat that favors players on good defensive teams but you can hardly call it useless. Also, can you post the source for the oncourt defensive rating? It's not a stat I'm familiar with.

Defensive Rating
1. Derrick Favors ▪ UTA 84.7
2. Andre Drummond ▪ DET 87.3
3. Rudy Gobert ▪ UTA 87.9
4. LeBron James ▪ CLE 88.0
5. Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS 88.2
6. Tristan Thompson ▪ CLE 90.1
7. DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC 90.5
8. Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA 91.9
9. Tim Duncan ▪ SAS 92.3
10. Festus Ezeli ▪ GSW 92.4
11. Manu Ginobili ▪ SAS 92.7
12. Paul Millsap ▪ ATL 93.0
13. Kyle Lowry ▪ TOR 93.6
14. Luis Scola ▪ TOR 93.7
15. Timofey Mozgov ▪ CLE 93.8
16. Jared Sullinger ▪ BOS 93.9
17. Stephen Curry ▪ GSW 94.1
18. Karl-Anthony Towns ▪ MIN 94.2
19. Kevin Love ▪ CLE 94.5
20. Dwight Powell ▪ DAL 94.5

The bolded are all avg to below avg defenders

[SkywalkerAC]

I can't believe even DD's most ardent defenders would not be able to see the difference in his game.

FGA's 16-23 feet (non-3pt): 9 through 5 games (11% of FGA's)
Last year: 333 through 60 games - scales to 28 through 5 games (34% of FGA's)

No, no difference at all.

Yeah, I'm not standing with Christian on this one. DeMar's shifted his game and has continued to improve (just like I said he would ).

[Just Is]

The bolded are all avg to below avg defenders

Honestly, if you take those names out, the list seems pretty bang on. SVG has done wonders for Drummond it seems like.

[Just Is]

Yeah, I'm not standing with Christian on this one. DeMar's shifted his game and has continued to improve (just like I said he would ).

I know small sample size but...

...I'll be honest; I didn't think he would. I thought he could (if I ignored some of his interviews) but I didn't think he would as I have zero faith in Casey (which is why I wanted him gone so that I'd be able to see the players play under a different coach).

[SkywalkerAC]

I know small sample size but...

...I'll be honest; I didn't think he would. I thought he could (if I ignored some of his interviews) but I didn't think he would as I have zero faith in Casey (which is why I wanted him gone so that I'd be able to see the players play under a different coach).

I had faith Casey would make the shift as well.

I know, I know,
""

[DanH]

Remind me which one I'm looking at most of the time (on basketball-reference)?

Basketball reference lists individual defensive rating. Literally just the ORTG of whoever the player's matchup is. Which tells you absolutely zero about help defence, etc.

For example, Bargnani often didn't have the worst individual DRTG on the team, and would sometimes rank near the middle of the team in individual DRTG. That's because he was OK man to man - but so miserable in help defence that he is well known as one of the worst defenders to ever play the game.

NBA.com lists on-court defensive rating. That's how many points the opposing team scores per 100 possessions while the player occupies the floor. Scola has one of the worst ratings on the team by that measure. There's obviously context required for both stats, but I've found that guys who are good defenders tend to show it better in on-court ratings (ideally, adjusted, but those adjusted stats like RPM aren't accurate early in the year) than in the individual stat, which is almost exclusively descriptive of man to man defence, which unfortunately is like 10% of defence in the NBA.

[DanH]

Sure, but eye tests by their nature are subjective and depend a lot on who is watching, their knowledge level, and their biases. In a discussion on a forum, stats are always preferred (IMO) out because of there relative objectivity (gotta watch for cherry picking though).



I fail to see how a stat that accounts for how often the other team scores when a player is on the floor per 100 possessions is useless as a defensive performance indicator. Also, using the eye test like Axel recommends to assess the top 20 list, you will find that almost every player on it is an elite defender. There is certainly a bias built into the stat that favors players on good defensive teams but you can hardly call it useless. Also, can you post the source for the oncourt defensive rating? It's not a stat I'm familiar with.

Defensive Rating
1. Derrick Favors ▪ UTA 84.7
2. Andre Drummond ▪ DET 87.3
3. Rudy Gobert ▪ UTA 87.9
4. LeBron James ▪ CLE 88.0
5. Kawhi Leonard ▪ SAS 88.2
6. Tristan Thompson ▪ CLE 90.1
7. DeAndre Jordan ▪ LAC 90.5
8. Hassan Whiteside ▪ MIA 91.9
9. Tim Duncan ▪ SAS 92.3
10. Festus Ezeli ▪ GSW 92.4
11. Manu Ginobili ▪ SAS 92.7
12. Paul Millsap ▪ ATL 93.0
13. Kyle Lowry ▪ TOR 93.6
14. Luis Scola ▪ TOR 93.7
15. Timofey Mozgov ▪ CLE 93.8
16. Jared Sullinger ▪ BOS 93.9
17. Stephen Curry ▪ GSW 94.1
18. Karl-Anthony Towns ▪ MIN 94.2
19. Kevin Love ▪ CLE 94.5
20. Dwight Powell ▪ DAL 94.5

That's not what the basketball reference stat is. Basketball reference is individual defensive rating. Just how their matchup scores. Not how the opposing team as a whole scores.

[golden]

I had faith Casey would make the shift as well.

I know, I know,
""

I had faith in Masai to impose his will on Casey.

[Chr1s1anL]

Honestly, if you take those names out, the list seems pretty bang on. SVG has done wonders for Drummond it seems like.

Kid a beast. Leads all Centers in points and rebounds so far.

[mcHAPPY]

Since I've been mentioned as an ardent hater of DD and yet this forum explosion has happened without me, I'll give my $0.02


1) "DD played great against OKC" - weeeeeell...great for him I guess. He still only scored at a 1.0 PPP rate. And that 1.0 PPP is coming off a night where he went 14/15 from the FT line, meaning he was brutal from the floor. Also so many FTs took the entire team out of a chance to get any rythem. His best game was when he only had like an 18% USG, lets keep it down there.

2) DD has (by eye), been the worst defender in the starting lineup. Tied with Scola (getting murdered in the PnR)

3) Still ISOing, although he is passing out of them more or getting to the rim more, it still is not a healthy habit for the team. When he holds the ball, the team comes to a screeching halt. It isn't going to work long term. 100% will stand by that. Still needs to completely change how he is getting to the rim. Needs to be off of team ball movement, not multiple cross overs.

4) Still sucks at shooting

and.....

#FearTheContractYear

Everything is relative

[mcHAPPY]

Damn even mcHAPPY is lightening up on DD. Things are looking up LOL

I have no issue admitting when I'm wrong.

I've always wanted him to play better basketball....now he is.

I hope it continues because being right on consistency would suck after him showing he can play a team game.

[OldSkoolCool]

Everything is relative

Is that relative worth 20 million?

Yes there will be a cap disparity for 2 seasons while the majority of the current contracts get adjusted to the new cap, and for two years that 20 mil may not be an issue. In that third year though we are going to be looking at a potential nightmare situation, and one I want to take advantage of...not be held at ransom.

With a few more draft picks coming our way, and the additions of CoJo, Carroll, and JVs improvement, I think we can comfortably "take a step back" and be still be a repeatable playoff team.

Going in on DeMar for a three or four year contract means we are going to have to give up on some assets come the last years of his deal, which I do not want to do. You only give up assets if it means retaining a superstar player.

Even if DD maintains his level of play right now, he is not a superstar player. Not a slight towards DD, but Leonard, Curry, LBJ, Durant, AD, Westbrook, Wall, Cousins, etc are just on a different level than DD...

If he commands superstar money (anything north of 20 mil), the team that pays him will suffer. The stats he is posting right now are a complete fallacy. His 0.238 WS/49 is elite (sample size), but is being massively inflated by a 0.724 FTr (free throw per FGA). In context, LBJ's highest FTr on a season was 0.506. That's the best player in the game getting the best whistle. Once DD's FTAs start to regress to the mean his WS/48 will promptly head south of 0.2 again and he will be easily out of the big money commanding range. AND, he still is only moderately efficient with his massive free throw crutch.

I like the wins. And he has made some of the changes to his game that have been drastically needed. But he still hasn't shown the ability to play off the ball, and his passing/stats have all come at the expense of team ball (and player) movement. The core of his play is still the same, he needs the ball on the block or on a clear out to put up his individual stats.

YET, his best game of his career, came when he posted a nice 15 points on 7-13 shooting, 4 assists, and only 2 free throws. He took shots within the flow of the offense (which don't lead to FTAs), and the team looked fantastic. There was a flow to the game and everyone got touches and looked engaged.

The funny thing is, when DD is only scoring 15 ppg and 4 assists efficiently, he is actually worth a lot more, but will command less salary....kind of a catch 22. The more individual stats DD puts up, I think he is worth less, but will command more...

[Joey]

But that is ALL 100% based on nothing but speculation, in terms of how long he will sign for and for how much.

We have NO IDEA, and therefore to make all these assumptions and then debate them as if they are actual real things doesn't make sense.

Maybe he signs a 2 year deal to take advantage of the ever growing cap in the coming years. Seems just as reasonable and likely.

[hateslosing]

That's not what the basketball reference stat is. Basketball reference is individual defensive rating. Just how their matchup scores. Not how the opposing team as a whole scores.

The individual defensive rating is not a measure of how the matchup scores and is also not the offensive rating of the opponent. From Baskeball-Reference.com

The core of the Defensive Rating calculation is the concept of the individual Defensive Stop. Stops take into account the instances of a player ending an opposing possession that are tracked in the boxscore (blocks, steals, and defensive rebounds), in addition to an estimate for the number of forced turnovers and forced misses by the player which aren't captured by steals and blocks.

The formula for Stops is:

•Stops = Stops1 + Stops2

where:

•Stops1 = STL + BLK * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + DRB * (1 - FMwt)
•FMwt = (DFG% * (1 - DOR%)) / (DFG% * (1 - DOR%) + (1 - DFG%) * DOR%)
•DOR% = Opponent_ORB / (Opponent_ORB + Team_DRB)
•DFG% = Opponent_FGM / Opponent_FGA
•Stops2 = (((Opponent_FGA - Opponent_FGM - Team_BLK) / Team_MP) * FMwt * (1 - 1.07 * DOR%) + ((Opponent_TOV - Team_STL) / Team_MP)) * MP + (PF / Team_PF) * 0.4 * Opponent_FTA * (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2

Also necessary is the calculation of Stop%, which is the rate at which a player forces a defensive stop as a percentage of individual possessions faced (essentially the inverse of Floor%, but for defenders):

•Stop% = (Stops * Opponent_MP) / (Team_Possessions * MP)

With those numbers in hand, individual Defensive Rating can be computed:

•DRtg = Team_Defensive_Rating + 0.2 * (100 * D_Pts_per_ScPoss * (1 - Stop%) - Team_Defensive_Rating)

where:
•Team_Defensive_Rating = 100 * (Opponent_PTS / Team_Possessions)
•D_Pts_per_ScPoss = Opponent_PTS / (Opponent_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Opponent_FTM / Opponent_FTA))^2) * Opponent_FTA*0.4)

So while you are right that your opponents performance is certainly a factor in this stat (as captured by the Stop%), it is also taking into account your statistical performance as well as the team's defensive rating, which is where the performance per 100 possessions comes in.
In a zone defense this kind of stat would not be as important as the on/off defensive numbers since it doesn't matter how well you did guarding your man. In a man to man scheme, however, adding the context of how well the guy you were guarding played to the overall defensive picture seems like a useful piece of information.

[Axel]

But that is ALL 100% based on nothing but speculation, in terms of how long he will sign for and for how much.

We have NO IDEA, and therefore to make all these assumptions and then debate them as if they are actual real things doesn't make sense.

Maybe he signs a 2 year deal to take advantage of the ever growing cap in the coming years. Seems just as reasonable and likely.

This might be the preferred route by both parties. DD gets to #ProveEm each year and get awarded appropriately. Masai gets to see if things have really changed and keeps options (and outs) open.

At this point, if we can't land KD (always was a slim possibility), then a "wait and see" contract for DD might be the best option.