Everything Derozan

[Snooch]

I know Leonard is an advanced stat darling. I remember mcHappy had a post detailing much of it but it's not someone I've paid particular attention to.

Leonard has the makings of being a beast

People are all a wet oflver kristap porzingis....well leonard is the same type of player....perhaps a better passer even and a better shooter

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[Snooch]

I've raised this before, but I think there's good chance DeMar does a one-year deal if we don't land our "difference maker" in 2016 FA.

Would give him (and Kyle and Masai) one more chance to work it all out (in 2017). If not, DeMar can see how L.A. is looking, for example ... and it wouldn't it raise his potential on a max deal (which is one reason Lebron has signed one-year deals)?

This would remove any necessity of working one's ass off to bring in a (possibly older) short term guy(s) who offer nothing to an FA going forward ... even another year or two.

Why would massai need 1 more year

That is the least likely senario by far

This team has remained pretty much the same now for a while...another year is just going to make a window close that much more.

Also add to that from demars camp a new coach and new system could potentially destroy demars max usage inefficient raw numbers which would lower his next contracts value in a year where there is far more attractive fa's

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[JWash]

I know Leonard is an advanced stat darling. I remember mcHappy had a post detailing much of it but it's not someone I've paid particular attention to.

He was last year but that was playing only 15mpg on a very strong Blazers team. This year with increased role and opportunity not quite as much. Last year he was pretty damn good in most advanced stats, this year around average. Plus his main strength, shooting threes has regressed so far (42% last year making 2.0 per 36), down to 28.8% from the arc on 4.2 attempts per game.

Leonard has the makings of being a beast

People are all a wet oflver kristap porzingis....well leonard is the same type of player....perhaps a better passer even and a better shooter

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Leonard is not even close to Porzingis.

Porzingis is handling a significant amount of usage for a rookie bigman at 23.8% and putting up a shade under .150 WS/48, sitting at around league average scoring efficiency, with a +7 netRTG on a losing team. His rebound percentage is double Leonard's and his block percentage is almost quadruple.

Completely different class of player, not to mention Leonard is almost 24 in his 4th season and Porzingis is a 20 year old rookie.

DeMar may well sign a one year deal. He would get a no-trade clause (unless he signs a 1+1 deal).

But I doubt it for some reason. That's a lot of money to leave on the table on the off chance you suffer an injury, and DD doesn't have a 200M sponsorship deal to fall back on if that happens.

This. I think the risk is too high for DeRozan. He's not LeBron where even if he blows his ACL and misses a year he's still gonna get maxed out. DeRozan is viewed as an all-star yes, but any kind of significant downturn in play or injury could really cost him.

I think he tries to get the most he can (in terms of both dollars and long-term security) this offseason from a good team if possible.

[mcHAPPY]

Another year? good lord.

[JWash]

Another year? good lord.

Yeah I think a decision needs to be made.

Re-sign long-term and commit to the treadmill while praying for a superstar to become available via trade, or let him walk/sign-and-trade/trade at deadline

[Wild-ling#1]

Yeah I think a decision needs to be made.

Re-sign long-term and commit to the treadmill while praying for a superstar to become available via trade, or let him walk/sign-and-trade/trade at deadline

Strongly disagree. Seems to me you keep all your options open for 2017 with a one-year contract. Cap goes up again, still have multiple picks to deal, still have a core to attract free agents ... but can still let DD walk. If you swing and miss on Durant/Horford and DeMar will offer/accept one-year I think you should count yourself lucky.

I'd suggest it's the players who most often require the security of a long-term deal; the GM's would usually prefer the flexibility to "go in a different direction" (as new opportunities come up, teams don't meet expectations and as players' skills decline). I think If GM's knew players would continually re-sign, relatively few would get term deals.

An RR writer pointed out that re-building while remaining competitive is hardest. It's what Masai is doing. Why suggest he take a leap of faith (in any particular direction) before he has to?

[JWash]

Strongly disagree. Seems to me you keep all your options open for 2017 with a one-year contract. Cap goes up again, still have multiple picks to deal, still have a core to attract free agents ... but can still let DD walk. If you swing and miss on Durant/Horford and DeMar will offer/accept one-year I think you should count yourself lucky.

I'd suggest it's the players who most often require the security of a long-term deal; the GM's would usually prefer the flexibility to "go in a different direction" (as new opportunities come up, teams don't meet expectations and as players' skills decline). I think If GM's knew players would continually re-sign, relatively few would get term deals.

An RR writer pointed out that re-building while remaining competitive is hardest. It's what Masai is doing. Why suggest he take a leap of faith (in any particular direction) before he has to?

I don't see why DeRozan would sign a 1 year deal. He's not a superstar, he can't afford to take that kind of risk.

[Wild-ling#1]

Another year? good lord.

I think this is where the (arguable) under-appreciation of Demar hurts most.

If Carroll gets healthy in the off-season, JV, Bebe, Bruno (and other prospects) develop at all, Lowry holds up and especially if Masai can add anything with the Ross, Patterson, Scola roster spots (do something useful via draft/FA period/trade) you have to be quite pessimistic about the team, going forward even one year, to simply write off the possibility of anything really good (even surprising!) developing.

But the "We simply can't get better with DeMar!" narrative, I think, colours the whole landscape. I see no reason we must rush to judgment. I'd preach faith, patience and measured judgment.

[Wild-ling#1]

I don't see why DeRozan would sign a 1 year deal. He's not a superstar, he can't afford to take that kind of risk.

What (extra "non-superstar") risk are you talking about, chum?

[DanH]

What (extra "non-superstar") risk are you talking about, chum?

If Kevin Durant lost the entire season next season to an injury, would you be surprised if a team, the following summer, threw the bank at him anyway?

Now, if DeRozan missed the entire season next year, would you be surprised if he got just as good a deal as he would this summer?

[JWash]

If Kevin Durant lost the entire season next season to an injury, would you be surprised if a team, the following summer, threw the bank at him anyway?

Now, if DeRozan missed the entire season next year, would you be surprised if he got just as good a deal as he would this summer?

Yeah this is what I'm referring to.

[Wild-ling#1]

Hmmm ... good question. I see ...

Assuming the injury just cost him the year, though (but didn't cast his underlying ability into account) ...

Sure, I'll concede it might be expected to lower the value of his next contract. (And any injury that costs you a year tends to make you a less favourable candidate for further long-term deals, you'd figure)...

But if it were assumed he would simply come back fully healthy (and one-year older) ...

Honestly, it doesn't drop him into the "journeyman" player range, does it? He's still going to be a very rich lad, and find a long-term home in the NBA at his pleasure, right?

Is he really going to opt not to "seek his bliss" on account of this sort of (purely speculative) risk?

Is anyone looking at him at all differently after his injury-dimmed season last year?

[DanH]

Hmmm ... good question. I see ...

Assuming the injury just cost him the year, though (but didn't cast his underlying ability into account) ...

Sure, I'll concede it might be expected to lower the value of his next contract. (And any injury that costs you a year tends to make you less favourable candidate for further long-term deals)...

But if it were assumed he would simply come back fully healthy (and one-year older) ...

Honestly, it doesn't drop him into the "journeyman" player range, does it? He's still going to be a very rich lad, and find a long-term home in the NBA, at his pleasure, right?

Is he really going to opt not to "seek his bliss" on account of this sort of (purely speculative) risk?

Is anyone looking at him at all differently after his injury-dimmed season last year?

You can question the thought process all you like but it is prevalent in the NBA. LeBron made sure to sign a 1+1 deal, not just a 1 year deal, in case of injury. Valanciunas signed a 16M per year extension now, rather than risk an injury (one he ended up suffering) in-season that may suppress his value, in spite of a high likelihood of getting a better deal next summer. Basically every extension a player has ever signed is because of risk mitigation.

I'd bet the market was better for DeRozan after his all-star season than last season, but it's largely irrelevant. Players have displayed a pattern of being risk averse. Only the best in the business (who happen to have 100's of millions in sponsorships anyway) often take the risk of taking a short deal. The only exception is RFA's taking their QO - and in spite of a) likely making more money the following summer and b) being able to essentially buy early UFA choice of team, even THAT is very rare. Guys just have a very hard time turning down multiple years of guaranteed high income.

[mcHAPPY]

You can question the thought process all you like but it is prevalent in the NBA. LeBron made sure to sign a 1+1 deal, not just a 1 year deal, in case of injury. Valanciunas signed a 16M per year extension now, rather than risk an injury (one he ended up suffering) in-season that may suppress his value, in spite of a high likelihood of getting a better deal next summer. Basically every extension a player has ever signed is because of risk mitigation.

I'd bet the market was better for DeRozan after his all-star season than last season, but it's largely irrelevant. Players have displayed a pattern of being risk averse. Only the best in the business (who happen to have 100's of millions in sponsorships anyway) often take the risk of taking a short deal. The only exception is RFA's taking their QO - and in spite of a) likely making more money the following summer and b) being able to essentially buy early UFA choice of team, even THAT is very rare. Guys just have a very hard time turning down multiple years of guaranteed high income.

And even when they take the short deal, there is always a player option for year 2.

[JWash]

And even when they take the short deal, there is always a player option for year 2.

Yup, so if anything goes terribly wrong they have a chance to redeem themselves.