Everything Derozan

[Scraptor]

Last summer I wrote (before the JV and Ross extensions) that Masai would be smarter to target 2017 cap space than 2016 cap space, due to how much he would need to gut the team to clear cap room in 2016 (not extend Ross, let him walk, along with JJ and Scola and BB and Bennett and DeRozan, of course). Later I had that strategy supported by the JV extension, and solidified by the Ross extension.

I'm going to put together a full summary in the cap thread detailing potential cap room and choices to make for next summer and the summer after, because 2016 decisions will have significant ramifications for 2017.

The problem with this strategy, IMO, is twofold:
1. Everyone has massive cap space by 2017. We would be trying to compete on the same playing field as a number of much more glamorous destinations that could also be more financially rewarding, due to endorsements and/or no state taxes.
2. You risk having three or four years of playoff futility, which renders your cap space somewhat impotent.

I don't think we would have had to gut the roster in 2016. Leaving Ross unsigned and being creative with moving the other less-important contracts would have gotten us there, at least for one major deal. Not to mention that signing Carroll (a role player) was part of the reason we would be tight in 2016 anyway.

[DanH]

The problem with this strategy, IMO, is twofold:
1. Everyone has massive cap space by 2017. We would be trying to compete on the same playing field as a number of much more glamorous destinations that could also be more financially rewarding, due to endorsements and/or no state taxes.
2. You risk having three or four years of playoff futility, which renders your cap space somewhat impotent.

I don't think we would have had to gut the roster in 2016. Leaving Ross unsigned and being creative with moving the other less-important contracts would have gotten us there, at least for one major deal. Not to mention that signing Carroll (a role player) was part of the reason we would be tight in 2016 anyway.

The only way for 2016 to work was to let all our FA's walk (assuming we still sign JV to the extension) including DD. Unless we started shipping guys off (Patterson or rookie scale guys) for nothing.

There are just as many teams with massive cap space in 2016 (more, really, in terms of who has max cap room, since the cap jumps are the same but the max salaries are very different) and far, far fewer targets in 2016 than 2017.

[DanH]

Btw it's not true at all that less fouls get called in the playoffs:



https://m.espn.go.com/wireless/story...153982&lang=ES

This was written in 2010 by John Hollinger.

The easy counter to this is that teams really crunch down on paint defence and defence in general in the playoffs and are technically committing like 50% more actual fouls in their focus on not allowing anything easy, and only like 10% more are being called, meaning that far fewer fouls are being called per actual foul.

No evidence to support it, but a very easy storyline to counter the raw fouls called statistic. And has some support too - the 2 point FG% average dropped by 2.1% (from 49.6% to 47.5%) among the playoff teams from the regular season to the playoffs last year, suggesting tougher defence is being played.

[raptors999]

The easy counter to this is that teams really crunch down on paint defence and defence in general in the playoffs and are technically committing like 50% more actual fouls in their focus on not allowing anything easy, and only like 10% more are being called, meaning that far fewer fouls are being called per actual foul.

No evidence to support it, but a very easy storyline to counter the raw fouls called statistic. And has some support too - the 2 point FG% average dropped by 2.1% (from 49.6% to 47.5%) among the playoff teams from the regular season to the playoffs last year, suggesting tougher defence is being played.

Playoff means no easy cuts, dunks or layups. Everything gets earned at the line with a bruise

[JWash]

The easy counter to this is that teams really crunch down on paint defence and defence in general in the playoffs and are technically committing like 50% more actual fouls in their focus on not allowing anything easy, and only like 10% more are being called, meaning that far fewer fouls are being called per actual foul.

No evidence to support it, but a very easy storyline to counter the raw fouls called statistic. And has some support too - the 2 point FG% average dropped by 2.1% (from 49.6% to 47.5%) among the playoff teams from the regular season to the playoffs last year, suggesting tougher defence is being played.

Yeah it's an "easy counter" I suppose and then you look at DeRozan's 11 FTA per game against Brooklyn when we were actually playing well and it's kind of a moot point. I realize he only got 4.3 a game against Washington but that had more to do with the entire team playing like crap and our offense (and defense) being exposed than Washington locking down the paint or whatever.

Look at any of the top FTA guys and their attempts in the playoffs vs. the regular season. It's usually higher on average if anything or about the same.

Looking at last year's playoffs as an example. The average team free-throw rate in the playoffs was .296, higher than the regular season rate of .273 despite most of the playoff teams being below average in terms of FTR in the regular season. In 2013-14 it was .308 in the playoffs and .283 in the regular season. 2012-13 it was .303 in the playoffs and .270 in the regular season.

If anything it seems like the thing that's adversely affected in the playoffs (if only slightly) is 3PT shooting. In 2014-15, playoff teams shot 34.4% from 3 while all teams in the regular season shot 35.0%. This seems minor, but when you consider the fact the top 14 teams in 3PT shooting in the regular season were all playoff teams and they had a regular season average percentage of 36.4% that dropoff becomes more significant.

In 2013-14, teams shot 36.0% from 3 in the regular season, 35.8% in the playoffs.
2012-13, teams shot 35.9% from 3 in the regular season, 34.4% in the playoffs
2011-12, 34.9% from 3 in the regular season, 33.3% in the playoffs.

So really one could argue that getting to the FT line is a more reliable scoring method in the playoffs than making 3 pointers. Which kind of makes sense if you think about it. Teams really hone in on taking away open threes in the playoffs because of how back-breaking they can be in terms of halting runs for you or extending runs for your opponent, making it tougher for teams to consistently hit from 3 unless they have the very best ball movement and shot creation. On the other hand, if a slasher gets by the initial defender, if help is late at all then you're basically going to have to foul to stop a layup or dunk.

And yes I get your point about teams fouling more to not allow anything easy, but you're still getting to the FT line or gettng 2 points either way. If you're being forced into a contested three or chased off the line you have a very limited chance of actually getting 3 points (or even 2 because most catch and shoot guys can't do a whole lot off the bounce).

[JWash]

The problem with this strategy, IMO, is twofold:
1. Everyone has massive cap space by 2017. We would be trying to compete on the same playing field as a number of much more glamorous destinations that could also be more financially rewarding, due to endorsements and/or no state taxes.
2. You risk having three or four years of playoff futility, which renders your cap space somewhat impotent.

I don't think we would have had to gut the roster in 2016. Leaving Ross unsigned and being creative with moving the other less-important contracts would have gotten us there, at least for one major deal. Not to mention that signing Carroll (a role player) was part of the reason we would be tight in 2016 anyway.

Debatable. Some teams might blow their loads in 2016 and take themselves out as 2017 free agency players.

[Scraptor]

The only way for 2016 to work was to let all our FA's walk (assuming we still sign JV to the extension) including DD. Unless we started shipping guys off (Patterson or rookie scale guys) for nothing.

There are just as many teams with massive cap space in 2016 (more, really, in terms of who has max cap room, since the cap jumps are the same but the max salaries are very different) and far, far fewer targets in 2016 than 2017.

Patterson and the rookie scale guys were worth shipping for nothing to land a max deal player. DeMar could have been brought back in a Kawhi-type/LMA scenario. If he loves the city as much as he says and he was used to recruit Carroll it might have been doable.

Waiting for 2017 is risky because you are basically losing another two playoffs of contention for an uncertain return. What happens if we have to settle for another role player? Momentum is important.

It is a fine strategy now, but only because Masai has painted himself into a corner for 2016. I am not sure delivering his masterstroke in his fifth offseason is what any of us had in mind when he came on board.

[Scraptor]

Debatable. Some teams might blow their loads in 2016 and take themselves out as 2017 free agency players.

Fine, let me rephrase. With the cap going up another $19mm in 2017, almost everyone will either have cap space or be able to move pieces into other teams' cap space in order to compete with us for free agents. We'll have no discernible advantage in free agency by then.

[DanH]

And yes I get your point about teams fouling more to not allow anything easy, but you're still getting to the FT line or gettng 2 points either way. If you're being forced into a contested three or chased off the line you have a very limited chance of actually getting 3 points (or even 2 because most catch and shoot guys can't do a whole lot off the bounce).

You don't seem to get my point at all. 2PT% drops by more than the 3PT% does, because teams play tougher defence. So, to use your example, DeRozan in 2013-14 playoffs had a crazy number of FT's. But his TS% was only a solid 55%, in spite of his insane 68% (!!!) free throw rate! Precisely because he was missing a lot of shots - a 38% FG% demonstrates that he was not just getting more free throws from the same plays - he was making the same plays, and getting fouled A LOT - and the refs only called it sometimes, and the times they didn't call it turned into missed interior shots or turnovers (saw a 1% uptick in TOV% in the playoffs).

See, DeRozan managed a nice 113 ORTG in those playoffs. But that was with an historic free throw rate (and hitting 33% of his 3's, which seems unlikely to repeat consistently). It is doubtful he is able to repeat that. And the following playoffs show the risks - when the fouls don't get called, the offence completely disappears. In 2014-15 playoffs DeMar's FTr was .213, an insanely low number for him no matter how the rest of the team is playing. Combine that with his 40% FG%, and even his 38% 3 point shooting in the playoffs couldn't get his TS% above 46% or his ORTG above 96.

Obviously 2014-15 is not a fair representation of what we can expect, but I would argue neither is 2013-14 a result you can project forward.

[JWash]

Patterson and the rookie scale guys were worth shipping for nothing to land a max deal player. DeMar could have been brought back in a Kawhi-type/LMA scenario. If he loves the city as much as he says and he was used to recruit Carroll it might have been doable.

Waiting for 2017 is risky because you are basically losing another two playoffs of contention for an uncertain return. What happens if we have to settle for another role player? Momentum is important.

It is a fine strategy now, but only because Masai has painted himself into a corner for 2016. I am not sure delivering his masterstroke in his fifth offseason is what any of us had in mind when he came on board.

Uhhh... no.

DeMar has a ~15M cap hold in 2016.

Kawhi's was ~6M.

[DanH]

Patterson and the rookie scale guys were worth shipping for nothing to land a max deal player. DeMar could have been brought back in a Kawhi-type/LMA scenario. If he loves the city as much as he says and he was used to recruit Carroll it might have been doable.

Waiting for 2017 is risky because you are basically losing another two playoffs of contention for an uncertain return. What happens if we have to settle for another role player? Momentum is important.

It is a fine strategy now, but only because Masai has painted himself into a corner for 2016. I am not sure delivering his masterstroke in his fifth offseason is what any of us had in mind when he came on board.

How is the difference between playing in the 2016 sandbox and 2017 sandbox two playoffs? Seems like one to me.

The plan for 2016 would be to try for Durant or Horford or bust. And you risk losing a lot of your own players in the process whether you succeed or not.

The plan for 2017 would be to try for one of many stars available then (possibly including Durant if he is smart this summer).

As for the comments on being stuck on even ground with many other teams in 2017 - we'd be on even ground with just as many if not MORE teams in 2016!

[JWash]

You don't seem to get my point at all. 2PT% drops by more than the 3PT% does, because teams play tougher defence. So, to use your example, DeRozan in 2013-14 playoffs had a crazy number of FT's. But his TS% was only a solid 55%, in spite of his insane 68% (!!!) free throw rate! Precisely because he was missing a lot of shots - a 38% FG% demonstrates that he was not just getting more free throws from the same plays - he was making the same plays, and getting fouled A LOT - and the refs only called it sometimes, and the times they didn't call it turned into missed interior shots or turnovers (saw a 1% uptick in TOV% in the playoffs).

See, DeRozan managed a nice 113 ORTG in those playoffs. But that was with an historic free throw rate (and hitting 33% of his 3's, which seems unlikely to repeat consistently). It is doubtful he is able to repeat that. And the following playoffs show the risks - when the fouls don't get called, the offence completely disappears. In 2014-15 playoffs DeMar's FTr was .213, an insanely low number for him no matter how the rest of the team is playing. Combine that with his 40% FG%, and even his 38% 3 point shooting in the playoffs couldn't get his TS% above 46% or his ORTG above 96.

Obviously 2014-15 is not a fair representation of what we can expect, but I would argue neither is 2013-14 a result you can project forward.

So the projection would be somewhere in between where he's making more of his shots imo but not getting fouled at a 68% rate. And btw, his 3PT% last year had very little bearing on his TS% considering he was making 0.8 3PT/game (2.4ppg) and taking 20 shots.

Also DD's FG% was low in 2014 playoffs because he was taking a boat-load of long 2s (39% of his shots). If he maintains this focus on driving and slashing and avoiding taking too many long-2s, that percentage should go up. Also a 55 TS% is good regardless of FG% just saying. I thought we were debating the ability of a player to continue getting to the FT line in the playoffs vs. the regular season. I mean like basically what happened was they were taking hard fouls a lot more on him which prevented layups (thus decreasing his FGM and FGA while increasing his FTM and FTA, since those are shots that would normally go in).

And I do think it's hard to take away much from the Washington series other than we got our asses handed to us. We got swept in convincing fashion with HC advantage due to no defense and a flawed offense getting exposed. Additionally Lowry was a complete non-factor in the series. It's a 4 game sample size where we got blown out of the water not really a competitive playoff series. I don't think it's very indicative of DeMar's ability to draw fouls against playoff defenses.

[Just Is]

How is the difference between playing in the 2016 sandbox and 2017 sandbox two playoffs? Seems like one to me.

The plan for 2016 would be to try for Durant or Horford or bust. And you risk losing a lot of your own players in the process whether you succeed or not.

The plan for 2017 would be to try for one of many stars available then (possibly including Durant if he is smart this summer).

As for the comments on being stuck on even ground with many other teams in 2017 - we'd be on even ground with just as many if not MORE teams in 2016!

Yeah, that's actually why I'm off the Durant train for 2016. I think he does a 1+1 this year with OKC and then opts out (he'll be a FA at the same time as Westbrook and Ibaka).

2017 is when we should target Durant and Ibaka.

[Snooch]

Btw it's not true at all that less fouls get called in the playoffs:



https://m.espn.go.com/wireless/story...153982&lang=ES

This was written in 2010 by John Hollinger.

5.
Years.
Old



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[DanH]

All I'm saying is that DeMar's 2013-14 is pretty much the absolute, absolute best case scenario for a foul drawing scorer, and he still was only slightly better than his middling efficiency in the regular season. And we can't expect that to be the norm. And if the best case scenario is roughly in line with his regular season, then a more reasonable expectation is a drop off from the regular season (and DeRozan is a player who cannot afford even a slight drop off in efficiency, as he's typically only on the positive side of the efficiency/usage curve by a sliver).

Looking at that 2013-14 season again, he saw his FG% at the rim drop 3%, his FG% from 3-10 feet drop 9%, and his FG% from 10-16 feet drop by 30% (yes, from 40% to 8%...) in the playoffs. Remember, FGA's are only on plays in which no foul is called, and those are the regions where he will need to score from when fouls aren't being called. Reality is he lived entirely at the line, and that 68% FTr is completely unrealistic to expect.

Here are the players from that playoffs that posted a 60%+ FTr (among the top 50 WS producers to filter for high usage and minutes players - DD was 33rd):

Tiago Splitter
Chris Andersen
DeAndre Jordan
Dwight Howard
DeMar DeRozan
Taj Gibson

Just centres, mostly, a couple of whom are hack-a-Shaq candidates.

Over 50% (the above, plus):
Paul Millsap
Steven Adams

Over 40% (the above, plus):
LBJ
Paul George
Westbrook
Blake Griffin
Robin Lopez
Kyle Lowry
John Wall

Also note James Harden, at 37%.

Which group does DeRozan really belong in?

He's a high usage, primary scoring option. Very much like that 3rd group. He's never had a FTr above 50% for any season, including this current partial one. It's possible through statistical variation that he could have another freakishly high FTr, but it is hardly something to plan for.