Everything Derozan

[Barolt]

You're actually confirming the point I was trying to make. Look at the names you are mentioning. They are all unquestionably elite, in your opinion. So, that means DD's production this season is elite, as was 2013-14. The baseball HoF debate.

Again, my arbitrary criteria is only for offensive elite-ness. In fact, I should actually bump up the USG to 28%, and even more guys would fall off. It's really, really difficult to maintain high offensive efficiency even for small increases in USG% above 20. At that point, the entire defense is focusing on you and only elite shot creators can continue to score efficiently. Chris Paul and Lowry can't do it, probably because they are too small and not athletic enough to get their shot off against bigger defenders. Which makes what Isaiah Thomas does even more amazing. And what Steph Curry is doing is not even believable.

No, you shouldn't bump up usage rate. You should account for assist rate. (Hint: Wouldn't actually hurt DeMar as much as you think) Draymond Green, Tony Parker, Chris Paul, Paul Millsap, Derrick Favors, Chris Bosh, Enes Kanter are all elite offensive players this year that your list ignores.

DeMar is a top 30 NBA talent. Maybe top 20 offensive NBA talent. He isn't top 6 at anything except free throw rate, and it's ridiculous to try to assert that he is.

[JWash]

I still think we have to reserve any chest-thumping until the playoffs even though I could be doing the same; i.e., was calling DD elite offensively 2 seasons ago, based on the "golden" rule: USG>25 / ORTG>110 / MPG>30. LOL.

Simple reason we need to hold off is that, unlike sharpshooters, the main reason DeMar is able to maintain a high efficiency is based on a career high FT rate, which has at least 2 things out of his control: (1) his defender fouling him, (2) the refs calling it.

There's been a lot of talk about whether FT rate is sustainable in the playoffs. Since DD isn't quite yet one of the NBA glamour boys and Toronto isn't a glamour city, so I don't think we can guarantee that he's going to get the benefit of the whistle. More importantly, if the team we are facing can play DD tight without fouling, then he's going to have to make shots or make smart passes. He's been doing a better job at both this season, but make no mistake, his efficiency still comes largely from his FT rate. He's also been really, really good at getting guys up in the air with the pump fake, but that's probably the first thing that opposing players will try to resist doing in the playoffs. Especially when you play the same guy at least 4 times in a series.

Regarding this though. In 2013-14 DeRozan was arguably better offensively in the playoffs than the regular season. Yes his FG% was low, but since when do we use FG% to measure shooting efficiency? His TS% was at 55% which is higher than it was during the season and that was despite basically being a no show to game 1.

Is he going to have a 67% draw rate again? Probably not. Is he going to have the 21% of last year? Probably not. But considering his new attacking mentality you would probably expect his draw rate to be somewhere in the middle there if not towards the higher end, so I don't expect much of a change from his regular season draw rate. Basically it's going to come down to shot selection like it is right now.

I don't really buy this idea that teams somehow get better at defending without fouling in the playoffs. If anything they simply just take more hard fouls deliberately to prevent guys from making baskets that can build momentum for their teams. But either way with a guy like DeMar you're making the paint-shot or on the free throw line.

If DeRozan plays this same style of basketball in the playoffs I don't think he'll have any problems in the playoffs. People like to say fouls aren't in your control, which is true to an extent, but really if you're an adept slasher and finisher who actively seeks to get to the rim? You're going to get fouled, period. And as much as the Raptors aren't a glamour destination, DD himself has built up considerable cache with referees as a guy who draws fouls, and it's not like he's a flop machine either, rarely see him doing that unless you consider the pump fake fouls to be flopping, imo that's just undisciplined defense.

I mean technically something like shooting isn't totally within your control either. How much the defender contests your shot, whether you have an off-shooting night, how well your team moves the ball, how well the other team is denying you the pass for the catch and shoot, these are all things that are not 100% within a player's control that can effect shooting.

Just like we can see some of the best guys at drawing fouls only get 2 FT attempts in a game, we can see absolute snipers have awful or subpar shooting nights or even several of them in a row (looking at you Korver).

[JWash]

It is a possibility.

Consistency over 82 has always been a weakness.

But I really hope he has turned the corner.

Honestly DeRozan doesn't really have peaks and valleys during the season though. He usually starts poorly and improves as the season goes along. In every season of his career his post all-star break numbers have been equal to or better than pre all-star break.

[Barolt]

Golden, with regards to your 'elite offensively' group, how in the world are you going to claim Draymond Green isn't?

http://i.imgur.com/E93J38T.png

The influence he has on his teammates' true shooting percentages is insane, and without question elite.

By the way,

http://i.imgur.com/41v0sZG.png
http://i.imgur.com/LATirLG.png

Lowry and DeMar actually both have higher True Shooting percentages when the other one is off the floor, with my DeMar off the bench idea pitched a few pages back, that would seem to lend credence to the idea that it would work.

[JWash]

I'm not arguing that he's good. I'm arguing golden's very specific list.

DeMar is top 30 in PER, top 40 in WS/48, top 40 in OBPM, has a respectable TS%. He's having a good offensive season and is proving he's a top 30 NBA talent. Why can't that be enough? Why do we have to attempt to concoct a list that puts him with guys like LeBron, Kawhi, Durant? DeMar isn't in that category, but that doesn't mean he isn't good.

golden isn't concocting anything and if I remember correctly he used that exact same list with the same requirements AGAINST DeRozan in the offseason.

Nobody's trying to create a narrative here, but those are very reasonable bench marks to use.

[JWash]

I respect you for your consistency, Snooch!!

Personally I wouldn't mind this DeRozan. I wouldn't have spent so many years venting and complaining had he played this way for last 3-4 years... And by play this way I don't mean put up these numbers, I literally am talking style of play. The other issue is you need a big upgrade at PF with a much more consistent shooter than PP.

This guy will be our PF in 2017 . Even if we strike out on KD/Horford this year, still got the money to go after him next season.

[Barolt]

golden isn't concocting anything and if I remember correctly he used that exact same list with the same requirements AGAINST DeRozan in the offseason.

Nobody's trying to create a narrative here, but those are very reasonable bench marks to use.

110 Ortg and 25 MPG totally is, 25% usage isn't. You can be elite offensively without creating the shots yourself. Magic Johnson only broke 25% usage rate ONCE in his career. John Stockton never did. You gonna tell me those guys weren't elite offensively?

[mcHAPPY]

While some of the pro-DD camp certainly believed in his ability to change, the idea that Chr1st1an predicted all of this is laughable considering he said as recently as yesterday that "DD is playing the same as before". His steadfast refusal to believe that there was anything wrong with DD's game really makes his claims of "knew it all along" come across as the ultimate revisionist BS.

If you want to look at the last few years of posts, only pro-DD poster I remember that was consistent in saying that DD needed to change AND would change is Joey.

Nicely articulated, Axel.

There isn't much debate (let alone 1000s of posts) over the years if the response to criticisms was: "I know he takes awful shots, makes poor decisions, is inefficient, a weak individual defender, and poor rebounder, buuuuuuuuut I think he is a great guy and I believe he is going to change after years of playing this way."

There isn't much there to debate at all, really. Pointless to argue beliefs.

[S.R.]

I buy the idea that the fouls will likely get harder to draw in the playoffs. Brooklyn was DeMar's first postseason trip - he's been better game-planned for by opposing defenses since then (see: my sig).

And, even if DeMar's drop off is typical (offense is harder for everyone in the postseason), I'm still not a fan of trying to draw fouls in crunch time when the refs tend to swallow their whistles, and even moreso in the playoffs. Remember how Lowry got stuffed by Paul Pierce on the final play of the season vs. Brooklyn? That's what happens when your guards are used to driving into traffic and getting calls.

All that said - the most encouraging thing is seeing improved decision making and smarter basketball from this team at times this year (not always). That's what can carry them deeper into the playoffs than previous years. "Get the ball, attack the defense, make the right basketball play" is so much better than "get the ball, draw a foul." The fouls should be an outcome of making good decisions with the ball, rather than a pre-determined mindset that dictates options 1 through 5 as "draw a foul" with option 6 being "bail out pass to the perimeter."

[Wild-ling#1]

Nicely articulated, Axel.

There isn't much debate (let alone 1000s of posts) over the years if the response to criticisms was: "I know he takes awful shots, makes poor decisions, is inefficient, a weak individual defender, and poor rebounder, buuuuuuuuut I think he is a great guy and I believe he is going to change after years of playing this way."

There isn't much there to debate at all, really. Pointless to argue beliefs.

You seriously think that that is an entirely fair and balanced characterization of the 1000's of posts from "The District", mcHAPPPY?

Honestly? I'm really asking. Honestly??

[EDIT: Actually ... maybe never mind. We can disagree ... Carry on )

[mcHAPPY]

You seriously think that that is an entirely fair and balanced characterization of the 1000's of posts from "The District"?

Honestly? I'm really asking. Honestly??

That's the narrative they've been pushing the last few pages.

Read the posts again. Apparently they all knew and acknowledged the holes in his game but knew he'd get better and now here he is.

That is why I'm so annoyed with the district.

It wasn't just about 'knowing' he would get better, it was the endless justification and excuses for his me-first, second, third style of play.

Yet again, I'm not seeing an improvement in skills, I'm seeing a drastic improvement in decision making and intelligence.

[Axel]

Yet again, I'm not seeing an improvement in skills, I'm seeing a drastic improvement in decision making and intelligence.

Which is actually more impressive in my books.

[JWash]

I think DeRozan has improved his skills significantly over the years, although i don't think there was much improvement in regards to an understanding of how to use those skills correctly until now.

This is why I thought DD would not make the jump we've seen this year until he got a new coach, because it's hard for a player to just break habits that have been developed over 6 years. Even still I was an advocate of keeping him since Casey is hopefully not going to be a permanent fixture behind our bench. I think with an even better coach there are further steps he can take such as utilizing the corner 3 more, further developing his play-making and being more aggressive as a rebounder.

To suggest that he hasn't improved in skill is simply incorrect though. Things like ball-handling, passing, etc are at new heights.

[Barolt]

Just want to clarify, I have no problem with saying that DeMar is a very good player this year. Like I said, top 30 NBA talent, top 20 offensively in my mind. I just don't think he's top 6 like Golden's list makes him look. By the way, by 'Golden's rule', neither of Steve Nash's MVP seasons was an 'elite offensive' season.

[mcHAPPY]

Which is actually more impressive in my books.

Indeed.

Which also debunks one of the classic DeRozan excuses/justifications of his work ethic and time in the gym.

I wish I could find those Masai quotes.

No doubt in my mind (read: my opinion) he had some sort of epiphany or awakening this offseason or training camp.

He is likely to profit handsomely because of it..... well, more handsomely, he was already going to get a king's ransom.